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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jun 27, 2013 14:33:25 GMT -8
Everybody is looking beyond the Iphone...they just can't see anything that sells as well.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 27, 2013 14:43:11 GMT -8
We shouldn't condemn the next iPhones before the announcement at least. (I'm not saying anyone here is, but a ton of the self-thought "digerati" will if they haven't already.) Having a meaningfully improved 5S and a bigger new CheapPhone should be enough to give iPhone sales a decent (~20% or so) boost.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Jun 27, 2013 14:51:25 GMT -8
Everyone, bull or bear, tactician or strategist....take a few minutes and read this: www.marco.org/2013/06/27/ios7-as-defenseWith the change in suppliers so that it will NEVER beheld captive again and always have choice and options, and the creation of software that walls off the unworthy and can't be easily copied, Apple is setting itself apart and ensuring that what happened with Android/Samsung won't easily happen again.... Good for them. This is also a very good article, linked to by DF: www.allenpike.com/2013/ios7-catch-me-if-you-can/Interesting to read about the performance of iOS 7 on an iPhone 4...I was wondering about that. Hopefully many people will want to upgrade to a faster iPhone when they see the amazing apps developers can achieve with iOS 7. The discussion of the iOS7 effects' reliance on advanced processing chip capabilities made me think back to a discussion that we sort of had during the WWDC keynote, namely what device were they demoing on? If we assume it was a stock iPhone 5, then will it be even more impressive on the 5S/6 (maybe the 5S will be the cheap version of the iPhone 5?)? Did we really not see iOS7 at its best?
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Post by cbingle on Jun 27, 2013 14:58:47 GMT -8
The fact that NTT DoCoMo can posture is the issue. Apple no longer has the upper hand. And it is not Steve they are dealing with. It is some other guy that no one is afraid of being out played by.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Jun 27, 2013 15:01:49 GMT -8
The fact that NTT DoCoMo can posture is the issue. Apple no longer has the upper hand. And it is not Steve they are dealing with. It is some other guy that no one is afraid of being out played by. Because Tim Cook NEVER got the better of any of them while building perhaps the premier international supply chain of all time...rrriiiggghhhttt!
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Post by Lstream on Jun 27, 2013 15:12:18 GMT -8
The fact that NTT DoCoMo can posture is the issue. Apple no longer has the upper hand. And it is not Steve they are dealing with. It is some other guy that no one is afraid of being out played by. Actually, people posture all the time in negotiations. From strength and weakness. If you want to go ahead and call doom and gloom over this, then go ahead. I am not joining the hand wringing.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 27, 2013 15:16:10 GMT -8
Isn't pain range 390-400? I give no credence to ANY Max Pain number, because I believe it impossible to calculate such a theory, without data that simply is not available. I believe that for this one simple reason: MMs hedge the contracts they right by acquiring shares at the price and time that the contracts are written.This means that a $400 Call contract written for next week, at the Close today, is offset with a purchase of AAPL at $390.43. That price is determined by using Closing prices. Facts: AAPL at the Close $393.78 minus July 5 $400 Call premium $3.35 = net offsetting price of $390.43. Break even for the MM is AAPL at $409.57 (the delta between the acquisition price and the Call Strike, added to the Strike price). A Close at $400 results in a profit of $9.57. That profit is not entirely washed away until AAPL hits $409.57. Ergo: Break Even = $409.57. Now let's look at Call Contracts written with a $410 Strike. Closing Price $393.78 minus $410 Call Premium $1.02 = AAPL Hedge Price $392.76. Break Even = $427.24. Given the unlikelihood that AAPL will Close above $427.24 next week, then some portion of the profits derived from writing the $410 Calls can be applied to the break even point on the $400 Calls. If an equal number of contracts are written for each of the $400 and $410 Calls then the overall Break even point is $417.14. The number of Puts has no impact on theoretical max pain as they are hedged in the same manner. OI only depicts investor Sentiment, it does not depict MM's "Max Pain".
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 27, 2013 15:17:30 GMT -8
The fact that NTT DoCoMo can posture is the issue. Apple no longer has the upper hand. And it is not Steve they are dealing with. It is some other guy that no one is afraid of being out played by. So says who?
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Post by rickag on Jun 27, 2013 15:26:30 GMT -8
Thanks for the link. For me the key quotes are: time for cost benefit analysis against lost subscribers seems to be saying if we still bleed subscribers may have to cave into the iPhone…no deal until new iPhone sales are in. I don't think I know you are wrong…key word is think, let's see when iPhone 5s appears if the subscriber bleeding stops…no deal until the new iPhone(s) released. Again no deal until the new iPhone is out. Nonsense, the key is bleeding subscribers, even if they offer an iPhone many customers will not come back. Again, no deal until the new iPhone comes out. I do not expect an agreement with NTT Docomo until after the new iPhone is offered in Japan and if NTT Docomo bleeds more subscribers, if they do. We will see who has a straight flush and who has a pair of deuces, Kazuto Tsubouchi or Tim Cook. Place your bets.
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Post by Lstream on Jun 27, 2013 15:28:53 GMT -8
The fact that NTT DoCoMo can posture is the issue. Apple no longer has the upper hand. And it is not Steve they are dealing with. It is some other guy that no one is afraid of being out played by. So says who? It's obvious. All negative statements and opinions re Apple are automatically correct. The management team at Apple can no longer even get through the front door of the building without falling on their ass. It has become so bad that they now have Samsung door-openers just like Wall Mart greeters. Otherwise Cook and his cronies spend the whole day on the lawn. Many think that is the best place for him though. Also, have you not seen the new SpaceShip campus design? So when Cook is walking around in circles, he still will eventually find his office. Plus there are no escalators that the idiot will fall off of, or try to use in the wrong direction. No elevators either, that he can confuse as being his office. So Gregg - stop asking dumb questions.
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Post by appledoc on Jun 27, 2013 15:30:22 GMT -8
I remember you making a pretty similar post months ago. Sad how we haven't received anything yet outside of the MBA. As before, the the product pipeline is weighted to the second half. No inconsistency here. And for the last time, if you think the absence of an iPad refresh in March/April timeframe is causing this, I'd say you are dead, flat wrong. Show me where I said that. I simply don't think it's wise to jam pack everything into the holiday season when it didn't work as well as it could have last year.
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mjpww
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Post by mjpww on Jun 27, 2013 15:37:09 GMT -8
It's obvious. All negative statements and opinions re Apple are automatically correct. The management team at Apple can no longer even get through the front door of the building without falling on their ass. It has become so bad that they now have Samsung door-openers just like Wall Mart greeters. Otherwise Cook and his cronies spend the whole day on the lawn. Many think that is the best place for him though. Also, have you not seen the new SpaceShip campus design? So when Cook is walking around in circles, he still will eventually find his office. Plus there are no escalators that the idiot will fall off of, or try to use in the wrong direction. No elevators either, that he can confuse as being his office. So Gregg - stop asking dumb questions. HaHa/! You've summed it up nicely. From a long time lurker.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 27, 2013 15:50:08 GMT -8
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jun 27, 2013 15:53:43 GMT -8
Yeah...we are just about there.....just about at the point where it is universally accepted that Apple can't function. That will be the bottom. Might take a couple more weeks before general concensus reaches the point where everyone agrees Apple should be liquidated....as a mercy measure.... I think we are almost there....
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 27, 2013 15:54:39 GMT -8
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jun 27, 2013 15:57:29 GMT -8
Ah, those trips down memory lane.....How did this Iphone thingy ever get off the ground anyway. Clearly a loser!
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Post by Deleted on Jun 27, 2013 16:00:23 GMT -8
So Gregg - stop asking dumb questions. LOL I mean really LOL
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Post by cbingle on Jun 27, 2013 16:16:23 GMT -8
I know misery loves company, but AAPL is in deep trouble. Accept the facts. I am not happy about it either, since I own way too much of this stuff. Been peeling off in June, wish it was last September. Still making a bunch of money, but it could have been much more.
Regarding the question, who has the upper hand? Well, based on the stock price and media perception, it sure as he'll ain't AAPL. So, again, explain why DoCoMo and China Mobil are twisting in the wind?
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Post by rickag on Jun 27, 2013 16:35:03 GMT -8
I know misery loves company, but AAPL is in deep trouble. Accept the facts. I am not happy about it either, since I own way too much of this stuff. Been peeling off in June, wish it was last September. Still making a bunch of money, but it could have been much more. Regarding the question, who has the upper hand? Well, based on the stock price and media perception, it sure as he'll ain't AAPL. So, again, explain why DoCoMo and China Mobil are twisting in the wind? In the case of NTT Docomo they have lost subscribers. Lost Subscribers
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Post by mace on Jun 27, 2013 16:40:31 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Jun 27, 2013 17:25:10 GMT -8
To those that suspect that "window dressing" by funds may be an issue with AAPL: The final trading week of last quarter (March 25th-28th) - AAPL declined $21 from $463 to $442. I know we were already in a mini downtrend from last week, but I wonder if this is adding to our very low levels this week...? If the window dressing theory is correct, the sell off in AAPL should continue tomorrow, and cease to be a factor from Monday.
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Post by prazan on Jun 27, 2013 17:31:47 GMT -8
I was wondering what Tim does all day. Good to know you are in communication with him. Can you tell us his reply? I've sent mail to his address that indeed was answered by one of his minions. Mail singular, but still, someone does does monitor the account and reply on occasion.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 27, 2013 17:34:44 GMT -8
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Post by cbingle on Jun 27, 2013 17:35:17 GMT -8
When Timmy reports Q1 2014 EPS less than Q1 2013, Wall St is absolutely going to puke all over itself, Timmy, Phil, Jony and the new Cupertino campus. Nobody said life is fair.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 27, 2013 17:45:26 GMT -8
You're not even trying anymore with stuff like "Timmy" and making calls that there'll be a YOY drop between holiday quarters. We don't even have guidance for fiscal Q4 yet!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 27, 2013 17:47:22 GMT -8
If the window dressing theory is correct, the sell off in AAPL should continue tomorrow, and cease to be a factor from Monday. Well, if momo trading theory is correct, the selloff in AAPL will continue until it doesn't. I mean, pick your theory, right. Price is truth. Tough as hell to monitor, but try I must.
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Post by prazan on Jun 27, 2013 17:47:27 GMT -8
Samsung has proven itself adept at disinformation. So adept, that I'm not confident they haven't invaded the sacred space of AFB2. I remember a "research study" conducted by the boutique market research group, Buzz Marketing, from January of this year, purporting to show that the iPhone was losing popularity with teens, at a time that more established research firms were showing the opposite. They never published their methodology, or their client list. Samsung will buy those they need to buy. You can never find a good journalist when you need one.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 27, 2013 17:52:43 GMT -8
Nothing is sacred here. ;D
It's not necessarily "Samsung's fault" that Ace Metrix released the ad survey. But it's sure amusing that Bloomberg Businessweek didn't bother mentioning Ace Metrix's consulting relationship with Samsung in that article. Can't say I was ever a fan of Peter Burrows' work.
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Post by nathanstevens on Jun 27, 2013 17:53:00 GMT -8
I like the idea of the fingerprint sensor as a bluetooth enabled accessory. If it's in a wristband you wouldn't have to take your phone out of your pocket to make a payment. Detailed info could be displayed on the register. You could be asked how you'd like to pay and your phone could show up as one of the options if your Passbook iWallet was enabled. Tell the cashier which "card/account" from your iWallet you'd like to use (personal, business, kids allowance, food, travel, etc.). A simple light blinks on your wristband and you authorize with your fingerprint. "Would you like a receipt emailed to the address associated with this iWallet? Yes. Perhaps the fingerprint sensor will be added to one of the upcoming iPhones, but I think that mobile payments is too big of an opportunity to be incompatible with all legacy phones and iPads if/when it is added to the new hardware.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 27, 2013 17:53:01 GMT -8
When Timmy reports Q1 2014 EPS less than Q1 2013, Wall St is absolutely going to puke all over itself, Timmy, Phil, Jony and the new Cupertino campus. Nobody said life is fair. Well I guess its a good thing that there is almost zero chance that will happen.
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