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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 26, 2012 7:26:06 GMT -8
Wow - at these levels - if we assume $65/sh in earnings next year...are we trading at 10x earnings? And if you take the cash out -- we are single digits on the multiple, no?
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Post by Plato on Sept 26, 2012 7:29:13 GMT -8
Wow - at these levels - if we assume $65/sh in earnings next year...are we trading at 10x earnings? And if you take the cash out -- we are single digits on the multiple, no? Yes, but don't forget WS does not care about all this (PE multiple, fundamentals, TA, oversold conditions ...) once they start the rampage on the stock.
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Post by Apple II+ on Sept 26, 2012 7:30:18 GMT -8
Bought the dip. Went with bull put spreads since IV is up.
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Post by lulli on Sept 26, 2012 7:36:50 GMT -8
Bought the dip. Went with bull put spreads since IV is up. It's not a dip, be careful. In past situations like this, lots of people have started dumping aapl in order to book profits, thus driving down the price much more than the market. Put options to protect long positions are good when things like this happen.
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Post by jdrizzo89 on Sept 26, 2012 7:49:35 GMT -8
Anyone actually think we have the IPAD mini as a catalyst coming up in October?
With the price increase in the nano (300 I think) i just to see room for it in the ecosystem. Anyone? Could be more FUD in the weeks to come to tank us more.
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Post by Apple II+ on Sept 26, 2012 7:57:12 GMT -8
Bought the dip. Went with bull put spreads since IV is up. It's not a dip, be careful. In past situations like this, lots of people have started dumping aapl in order to book profits, thus driving down the price much more than the market. Put options to protect long positions are good when things like this happen. My trade will still be profitable if it dips some more. I'm prepared to roll out if need be and to keep buying if it keeps dipping. I don't buy put protection.
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Post by roni on Sept 26, 2012 8:03:05 GMT -8
Opened my first Jan 2015 LEAP this morning, $800 strike price
Apple has 28 months to climb 33% to take this above break even at expiration date.
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Post by Lstream on Sept 26, 2012 8:54:28 GMT -8
Take this Google! Just bought some GOOG October 775/785 put spreads.
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Post by rickag on Sept 26, 2012 9:35:51 GMT -8
I had 6 Jan 14 835/850 BCSs, thought I'd add to them. Placed a $3.40 bid when the mark was at $3.52, they filled before I raised my hand from hitting the send button. AAPL was at about $663.50.
Just warning everyone since after I buy it is AAPLs general pattern to go down more.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Sept 26, 2012 9:44:37 GMT -8
I am having a little trouble keeping my conspiracy theories straight. JD is saying that the EO's will drive AAPL to 685-690 for max pain and others are calling the current sell off to 650 a bear raid orchestrated by the EO's. This implies that we should see an inexplicable 35 point rise Thursday and Friday, or that there are multiple EO's with different agendas.
Multiple EO's is just too messy as conspiracy theories go, not because it isn't likely, but because it is too hard to use as a basis for conjecture. On the other hand, a 35 point rise by Friday would destroy the credibility of most of the FUD.
Seeking some sort of consistency in this conundrum makes me wonder if max pain works until it doesn't. Can we assume that the profits from the bear raid will be so great that the EO's don't mind taking the hit on the options? If so, this seems to be a massive vote of confidence in AAPL by the EO's. They would not take this hit unless they were very sure that AAPl was going much higher. Or, we could see the 35 point rise, the FUD credibility is not that much of a loss.
Either way, hang in there, we all know where AAPL will be in 6 months
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 26, 2012 9:47:27 GMT -8
To be clear: EOs, MMs, technicals, fundamentals....they ALL work...until they don't.
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 26, 2012 9:51:14 GMT -8
There is a thread that is titled "iPhone 5" -- just IMHO -- these several pages of what scratches and what doesn't on our beloved phone -- should probably be in that discussion. But again, just my opinion.
Any thoughts on price action today as we come into the two last market hours?
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Post by rob_london on Sept 26, 2012 10:15:24 GMT -8
This tweet from 'Kontra' made me smile:
How time flies:
April 1999: 1 Dell = 20 Apples Sep 2012: 1 Apple = 39 Dells.
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Post by qualitywte on Sept 26, 2012 10:15:47 GMT -8
I had 6 Jan 14 835/850 BCSs, thought I'd add to them. Placed a $3.40 bid when the mark was at $3.52, they filled before I raised my hand from hitting the send button. AAPL was at about $663.50. Just warning everyone since after I buy it is AAPLs general pattern to go down more. We broke that pattern, nice trade!
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Post by rob_london on Sept 26, 2012 10:17:02 GMT -8
Let's see if we can end the day green...
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Post by qualitywte on Sept 26, 2012 10:17:56 GMT -8
Let's see if we can end the day green... Green would look so good!
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Post by Plato on Sept 26, 2012 10:21:31 GMT -8
To be clear: EOs, MMs, technicals, fundamentals....they ALL work...until they don't. You sound like iPad
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Post by kloot on Sept 26, 2012 10:23:55 GMT -8
Bought the dip. Went with bull put spreads since IV is up. It's not a dip, be careful. In past situations like this, lots of people have started dumping aapl in order to book profits, thus driving down the price much more than the market. Put options to protect long positions are good when things like this happen. over 5% drop is a dip.
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Post by podboy on Sept 26, 2012 10:25:45 GMT -8
What's green? What does it look like? I hope the red apples are rotten.
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Post by dreamRaj on Sept 26, 2012 10:30:18 GMT -8
672. Nice rebound, for now.
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Post by aapl4kiki on Sept 26, 2012 10:30:35 GMT -8
Pain is our friend. It let's us know we're still alive.
~Master Chief
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Post by lulli on Sept 26, 2012 10:33:45 GMT -8
It's not a dip, be careful. In past situations like this, lots of people have started dumping aapl in order to book profits, thus driving down the price much more than the market. Put options to protect long positions are good when things like this happen. over 5% drop is a dip. Well, not if it keeps going down. I was just calling for caution, because I have had my own bad experiences in the past with trying to catch a falling knife, and 656 was close enough as an attractor. At about this time it starts looking like a dip, though (congrats to the longs!!) and I converted my puts into bull put spreads... keeping fingers crossed now. Edit: maybe we see a hammer candlestick?
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Post by podboy on Sept 26, 2012 10:40:18 GMT -8
Well I've only been buying AAPL stock since May, but I've learned how important it is to have some dry powder around when you need it. It could of came in handy during this dip but I know there will be many more like it in the coming years.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 26, 2012 10:59:27 GMT -8
35 is not 25.
Or 11 points off yesterday's close.
JD, thanks for the refresher. We'll see where OI stands after today.
Not sure if 661 is "capitulation" in this environment but hope everyone got some relief from the bounce.
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Post by moltenfire on Sept 26, 2012 11:11:39 GMT -8
EOs back from lunch and resumed selling at 230p.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 26, 2012 11:50:07 GMT -8
Experimenting with a couple of lower-risk, lower-return trades today (and a couple other small non-AAPL put bets). AAPL's still showing relative weakness. Will have to consult the charts for clues, but more than likely I'll just ask all the technicians for help.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 26, 2012 12:05:50 GMT -8
Rise in IV keeping my core LEAPS in good shape.
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Post by qualitywte on Sept 26, 2012 12:24:58 GMT -8
What's up with that crappy close?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 26, 2012 12:39:46 GMT -8
665.00 is a very precise kinda close...
Nope, EOs do not exist.
Another shaking of the AAPL tree today. Hang in there, everybody.
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Post by aapl4kiki on Sept 26, 2012 12:42:56 GMT -8
665.00 is a very precise kinda close... Nope, EOs do not exist. Another shaking of the AAPL tree today. Hang in there, everybody. I've got 665.18 on my screen. Google off again? Yesterday they were 15 minutes off while the stock was tanking.
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