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Post by Deleted on Jul 1, 2013 13:45:54 GMT -8
IF Apple is indeed going to be a second half story, then today we watched a terrific start to that story. I firmly believe it will be. My only reservation is how the market reacts to June quarter numbers and guidance. If guidance prevails as the shaper of AAPL's future, then we may see AAPL move sharply after earnings. If the market focuses more on earnings then we'll have to wait until September for meaningful movement. In either case, after October earnings AAPL is going to make a strong move to January earnings. With an announcement that either, or both, China Mobile/Docomo will distribute the iPhone starting in the March quarter, we will see AAPL continue to go up through July 2014 earnings.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 1, 2013 14:48:21 GMT -8
OI compare Period: July 1 2013 over June 24 2013 Total Options Contracts: ..+211,000 Total New Call Contracts: +145,000 Total New Put Contracts: .+.66,000 Overall OI Ratio: ........0.65:1 New Contract OI Ratio: 0.46:1
This is decidedly Bullish, however requires 2 more days of similar activity to confirm trend.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jul 1, 2013 15:20:54 GMT -8
This is decidedly Bullish, however requires 2 more days of similar activity to confirm trend. I don't think we can definitively draw the conclusion that the data is decidedly bullish. You can have bear call spreads, and you can have bull put spreads. The number of OI alone is not telling us bull or bear.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 1, 2013 15:38:35 GMT -8
This is decidedly Bullish, however requires 2 more days of similar activity to confirm trend. I don't think we can definitively draw the conclusion that the data is decidedly bullish. You can have bear call spreads, and you can have bull put spreads. The number of OI alone is not telling us bull or bear. +1 I think this is one of the really misused statistics. Big Boys, little boys and even the occasional machine rebalancing relative risk positions can be misleading if you just take a snapshot.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 1, 2013 15:38:57 GMT -8
Price is truth, IMHO. Be able to trade it is an entirely different thing, of course.
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Post by appledoc on Jul 1, 2013 15:51:50 GMT -8
I don't think we can definitively draw the conclusion that the data is decidedly bullish. You can have bear call spreads, and you can have bull put spreads. The number of OI alone is not telling us bull or bear. +1 I think this is one of the really misused statistics. Big Boys, little boys and even the occasional machine rebalancing relative risk positions can be misleading if you just take a snapshot. We've been over this 1000 times now. The OI data is useless. I don't know why it still gets posted.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jul 1, 2013 16:53:39 GMT -8
I don't think OI data is useless. I do monitor which strikes have the highest OI to see what the OE close might say about sentiment. Blowing through a substantial wall of calls or puts might potentially signal strong sentiment. Maybe, depending on which way the wind blows, a change in sentiment. My sentiment about OI was shaped early on by Mace's theory of price gravitating towards the highest OI for puts when bearish and calls when bullish. IIRC, Mace's theory was just for monthly OE, but I can't remember now. He had a regular thread on it back at AFB1.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jul 1, 2013 16:59:01 GMT -8
P.S. Big pile up of new calls at the 410 strike for this week. Let's see whether or not price blows through it.
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Post by appledoc on Jul 1, 2013 17:28:17 GMT -8
I don't think OI data is useless. I do monitor which strikes have the highest OI to see what the OE close might say about sentiment. Blowing through a substantial wall of calls or puts might potentially signal strong sentiment. Maybe, depending on which way the wind blows, a change in sentiment. My sentiment about OI was shaped early on by Mace's theory of price gravitating towards the highest OI for puts when bearish and calls when bullish. IIRC, Mace's theory was just for monthly OE, but I can't remember now. He had a regular thread on it back at AFB1. I meant the P/C ratio stuff. My fault for not being specific.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 1, 2013 17:29:11 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 1, 2013 17:44:56 GMT -8
Well, smartphone sales must be kinda slow in China, because Greater China YOY revenue segment growth was distinctly...not great last quarter. There _is_ a possibility that (no) LTE is holding back growth.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 1, 2013 17:50:16 GMT -8
I don't think we can definitively draw the conclusion that the data is decidedly bullish. You can have bear call spreads, and you can have bull put spreads. The number of OI alone is not telling us bull or bear. +1 I think this is one of the really misused statistics. Big Boys, little boys and even the occasional machine rebalancing relative risk positions can be misleading if you just take a snapshot. I think you guys are over thinking it. A MM doesn't have a Bull/Bear agenda. When the MM sells a contract (be it a Call or a Put) the MM hedges the position by purchasing shares. As I pointed out in an earlier post on Max Pain the MM profits virtually no matter what (see the math examples). So you have to discount the Sell side as most likely being a MM who doesn't care one way or another. That leaves buyers that do.
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Post by artman1033 on Jul 1, 2013 18:11:49 GMT -8
[url=http://www.apple.com/ipad/business/profiles/bechtel/ ]BECHTEL[/url] uses iPad! SONIC uses iPad the MAYO CLINIC uses iPad DUCATI uses iPad
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Post by Deleted on Jul 1, 2013 18:15:47 GMT -8
Had a very interesting discussion with OVI this evening. OVI brought up a question regarding number of Apple's installed base that upgrades to the new model and when.
This got me to thinking about putting that into a formula, then charting yearly results of each quarter.
Example: In FQ1/2010 Apple sold 8,737,000 iPhones of all models. In FQ1/2012 (assumed 2 year life with original purchaser) Apple sold 37,044,000 iPhones, or 4.23 iPhones for each iPhone sold in FQ1/2010, a ratio of 3.23:1. Now many factors can influence that ratio, but for that quarter the ratio is fact.
I then looked at the history of the quarter's ratio, always in a two year comparison context.
First of all, as you would expect with growing numbers, the ratio is declining. The rate of decline cannot be accurately fixed because of the limited amount of two year over two year comparison data.
Still, estimating FQ1/2014 installed base buy rate I come up with 61 million iPhones sold. That's just 6 million over my original estimate and relies on 64 buyers in addition to every 100 that bought an iPhone in FQ1/2012. That's down from last year's 323 buyers for every 100 that bought in FQ1/2010.
Comments?
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Post by lovemyipad on Jul 1, 2013 18:36:36 GMT -8
I think you guys are over thinking it. A MM doesn't have a Bull/Bear agenda. When the MM sells a contract (be it a Call or a Put) the MM hedges the position by purchasing shares. As I pointed out in an earlier post on Max Pain the MM profits virtually no matter what (see the math examples). So you have to discount the Sell side as most likely being a MM who doesn't care one way or another. That leaves buyers that do. I think you're oversimplifying it.
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Post by Lstream on Jul 1, 2013 18:44:14 GMT -8
+1 I think this is one of the really misused statistics. Big Boys, little boys and even the occasional machine rebalancing relative risk positions can be misleading if you just take a snapshot. We've been over this 1000 times now. The OI data is useless. I don't know why it still gets posted. If you don't agree with it, then why not just ignore related posts?
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Post by Deleted on Jul 1, 2013 18:56:50 GMT -8
+1 I think this is one of the really misused statistics. Big Boys, little boys and even the occasional machine rebalancing relative risk positions can be misleading if you just take a snapshot. If all I was doing was taking a snap shot I would agree. I'm not.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 1, 2013 19:38:09 GMT -8
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icam
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Post by icam on Jul 1, 2013 20:28:53 GMT -8
Had a very interesting discussion with OVI this evening. OVI brought up a question regarding number of Apple's installed base that upgrades to the new model and when. This got me to thinking about putting that into a formula, then charting yearly results of each quarter. Example: In FQ1/2010 Apple sold 8,737,000 iPhones of all models. In FQ1/2012 (assumed 2 year life with original purchaser) Apple sold 37,044,000 iPhones, or 4.23 iPhones for each iPhone sold in FQ1/2010, a ratio of 3.23:1. Now many factors can influence that ratio, but for that quarter the ratio is fact. I then looked at the history of the quarter's ratio, always in a two year comparison context. First of all, as you would expect with growing numbers, the ratio is declining. The rate of decline cannot be accurately fixed because of the limited amount of two year over two year comparison data. Still, estimating FQ1/2014 installed base buy rate I come up with 61 million iPhones sold. That's just 6 million over my original estimate and relies on 64 buyers in addition to every 100 that bought an iPhone in FQ1/2012. That's down from last year's 323 buyers for every 100 that bought in FQ1/2010. Comments? Greg, As a quant myself, I appreciate what your trying to do. I'm an Apple fanboy, but I think your 2 yr upgrade cycle might be a bit aggressive. Here's a data point for you. I purchased 2 iPhone 4S's in the early spring 2011. That was about 28 months ago. I haven't upgraded yet. I'm waiting for the next version (5S?), and that would put me at about a 32 month upgrade cycle. If the next phone isn't that big of a leap over what I've already got, I might not upgrade which will push my upgrade cycle out further. Like I said, I'm an Apple product lover- own like 2 of everything they've got, but I'm not upgrading without a compelling reason, so I'm willing to bet the less enthusiastic Apple user will be even more reluctant than me to upgrade on your assumed cycle. I'm only one data point though, so take it for what its worth.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 1, 2013 21:12:37 GMT -8
Not sure I understand why people don't upgrade at least every 24 months.
It's quite easy to sell one's iPhone on Craigslist for MORE than the cost of a new iPhone under a new agreement. Apple probably has some kind of understanding with the carriers to not promote this fact, but they would undoubtedly sell more iPhones if they did. ATT, Verizon, et al are collecting approx. $20 extra profit per month from customers who are out of contract after the subsidy matures.
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platon
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Post by platon on Jul 1, 2013 21:16:01 GMT -8
From the blog: "In context, news that Google is preparing to compete with Apple's rumoured Apple television and iWatch devices isn't such a surprise. It's just more of the same from a firm that only cares about itself." If Google is competing with Apple's TV plans that would fit with a blog post I read somewhere that Apple and Google were going to be competing for the rights to stream all of the NCAA's sporting events when the contracts with the cable companies runs out. Supposedly Apple is developing a totally new streaming technology that allows multiple streams or some such. This would supposedly give Apple/Google control of prime time sports broadcasting depending on who could pony up the most money. I guess the plan is for Google to copy the new technology and bid against Apple for the contracts. Same song 2nd verse. Me and you Sponge and of course our sources.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 1, 2013 21:18:18 GMT -8
We've been over this 1000 times now. The OI data is useless. I don't know why it still gets posted. If you don't agree with it, then why not just ignore related posts? The ignore button works too except when the "anointed ones" are quoted. Just a suggestion... ;D
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Post by Deleted on Jul 1, 2013 21:22:24 GMT -8
In case you missed it, July 23 is the day for FQ3 2013 earnings. Let's get this one behind us and Apple can start beating YOY EPS results.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jul 1, 2013 21:23:04 GMT -8
Not sure I understand why people don't upgrade at least every 24 months. It's quite easy to sell one's iPhone on Craigslist for MORE than the cost of a new iPhone under a new agreement. Apple probably has some kind of understanding with the carriers to not promote this fact, but they would undoubtedly sell more iPhones if they did. ATT, Verizon, et al are collecting approx. $20 extra profit per month from customers who are out of contract after the subsidy matures. Didn't Apple Stores just begin some sort of iphone trade in program to encourage this? Yeah: www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-06/apple-said-to-start-trade-in-program-to-boost-new-models.htmlIt looks like if you have a good old model, you can get the 5 for "free." That should bump conversion rates and make the upgrade path smoother. Smart way to encourage sales in the later quarters too IMO (I assume this won't be available for the 5S for the first couple quarters it's out)
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Post by Deleted on Jul 1, 2013 21:28:27 GMT -8
Not sure I understand why people don't upgrade at least every 24 months. It's quite easy to sell one's iPhone on Craigslist for MORE than the cost of a new iPhone under a new agreement. Apple probably has some kind of understanding with the carriers to not promote this fact, but they would undoubtedly sell more iPhones if they did. ATT, Verizon, et al are collecting approx. $20 extra profit per month from customers who are out of contract after the subsidy matures. Didn't Apple Stores just begin some sort of iphone trade in program to encourage this? Yeah: www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-06/apple-said-to-start-trade-in-program-to-boost-new-models.htmlIt looks like if you have a good old model, you can get the 5 for "free." That should bump conversion rates and make the upgrade path smoother. Smart way to encourage sales in the later quarters too IMO (I assume this won't be available for the 5S for the first couple quarters it's out) It's less a deal for two reasons: One, iPhone 5 is near the end of its "flagship" status and two, selling an iPhone can net a higher price than the cost of a new iPhone at launch. I've done this since the purchase of iPhone 3
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Post by Deleted on Jul 1, 2013 21:31:47 GMT -8
Had a very interesting discussion with OVI this evening. OVI brought up a question regarding number of Apple's installed base that upgrades to the new model and when. This got me to thinking about putting that into a formula, then charting yearly results of each quarter. Example: In FQ1/2010 Apple sold 8,737,000 iPhones of all models. In FQ1/2012 (assumed 2 year life with original purchaser) Apple sold 37,044,000 iPhones, or 4.23 iPhones for each iPhone sold in FQ1/2010, a ratio of 3.23:1. Now many factors can influence that ratio, but for that quarter the ratio is fact. I then looked at the history of the quarter's ratio, always in a two year comparison context. First of all, as you would expect with growing numbers, the ratio is declining. The rate of decline cannot be accurately fixed because of the limited amount of two year over two year comparison data. Still, estimating FQ1/2014 installed base buy rate I come up with 61 million iPhones sold. That's just 6 million over my original estimate and relies on 64 buyers in addition to every 100 that bought an iPhone in FQ1/2012. That's down from last year's 323 buyers for every 100 that bought in FQ1/2010. Comments? Greg, As a quant myself, I appreciate what your trying to do. I'm an Apple fanboy, but I think your 2 yr upgrade cycle might be a bit aggressive. Here's a data point for you. I purchased 2 iPhone 4S's in the early spring 2011. That was about 28 months ago. I haven't upgraded yet. I'm waiting for the next version (5S?), and that would put me at about a 32 month upgrade cycle. If the next phone isn't that big of a leap over what I've already got, I might not upgrade which will push my upgrade cycle out further. Like I said, I'm an Apple product lover- own like 2 of everything they've got, but I'm not upgrading without a compelling reason, so I'm willing to bet the less enthusiastic Apple user will be even more reluctant than me to upgrade on your assumed cycle. I'm only one data point though, so take it for what its worth. I considered your example when constructing my formula. I looked at adding prior quarter unit sales, then deducted them, did the same with trailing quarter sales. Total installed base, as well as the ratio of buyers changed, but not the rate of decline from two year cycle to the next. With the data available to me, i'll never come up with something spot on accurate. But as a tool for estimating iPhone unit sales, in my estimation, there isn't anything out there based on as solid logic. Thank you very much for giving my thesis a going over.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 1, 2013 21:34:38 GMT -8
Not sure I understand why people don't upgrade at least every 24 months. It's quite easy to sell one's iPhone on Craigslist for MORE than the cost of a new iPhone under a new agreement. Apple probably has some kind of understanding with the carriers to not promote this fact, but they would undoubtedly sell more iPhones if they did. ATT, Verizon, et al are collecting approx. $20 extra profit per month from customers who are out of contract after the subsidy matures. This subject is actually what led OVI and I to looking at installed base to forecast future unit sales.
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Post by Zeke on Jul 1, 2013 21:35:16 GMT -8
You guys know me as a buy and hold type. I do jump in and out of AAPL once or twice a year. This year I needed to move the last of my 401k out of my employer's amateur hour account and into my existing E-Trade accounts. I knew that I'd have to convert everything to cash and that it would take about 2 weeks to get it all transferred. I put it off for months waiting for this particular window, after WWDC and before July x-div. It worked out beautifully for once. I was able to go all cash at about $440, and bought AAPL this morning at $402 and change. I wish I had been able to get the money in E-Trade before market close Friday, but the timing just was not there. I could have locked in another $10. Anyway, barring major developments I'll be long AAPL now until at least January. For once everything seems to have worked as planned.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 1, 2013 21:41:30 GMT -8
Didn't Apple Stores just begin some sort of iphone trade in program to encourage this? Yeah: www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-06/apple-said-to-start-trade-in-program-to-boost-new-models.htmlIt looks like if you have a good old model, you can get the 5 for "free." That should bump conversion rates and make the upgrade path smoother. Smart way to encourage sales in the later quarters too IMO (I assume this won't be available for the 5S for the first couple quarters it's out) It's less a deal for two reasons: One, iPhone 5 is near the end of its "flagship" status and two, selling an iPhone can net a higher price than the cost of a new iPhone at launch. I've done this since the purchase of iPhone 3 My daughter does it every year, and has yet to go out of pocket. She and her mother are on a family plan with staggered upgrade dates (alternate years). Mother isn't excited about the new models, so when its her turn to upgrade they swap phones and sell the oldest. I'm only a year (when the next iPhone is released) into my contract. But I still have my 4. That combined with my 5 should put me over the top for the next one (5S?).
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Post by Deleted on Jul 1, 2013 21:43:55 GMT -8
You guys know me as a buy and hold type. I do jump in and out of AAPL once or twice a year. This year I needed to move the last of my 401k out of my employer's amateur hour account and into my existing E-Trade accounts. I knew that I'd have to convert everything to cash and that it would take about 2 weeks to get it all transferred. I put it off for months waiting for this particular window, after WWDC and before July x-div. It worked out beautifully for once. I was able to go all cash at about $440, and bought AAPL this morning at $402 and change. I wish I had been able to get the money in E-Trade before market close Friday, but the timing just was not there. I could have locked in another $10. Anyway, barring major developments I'll be long AAPL now until at least January. For once everything seems to have worked as planned. Don't you just hate it when a plan comes together?
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