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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 8, 2013 15:42:07 GMT -8
…… No way we'll go below 619, 600, 585, 522, 500, 480, 420, 400... Ouch. Reading that is like ripping off a scab re-opening a festering wound. Well, there is no way we'll go below 385...again..
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Post by Deleted on Jul 8, 2013 15:45:23 GMT -8
tinyurl.com/Samsung-FallsSamsung is now trading at its lowest point in 12 months...and its just beginning. The shine is gone. hmmm, been thinking about Samsung's own fall from grace. If WS is correct about Samsung's future prospects (as reflected in Samsung's share price), who does that leave as a viable competitor to Apple?
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Post by Deleted on Jul 8, 2013 16:13:35 GMT -8
tinyurl.com/Samsung-FallsSamsung is now trading at its lowest point in 12 months...and its just beginning. The shine is gone. hmmm, been thinking about Samsung's own fall from grace. If WS is correct about Samsung's future prospects (as reflected in Samsung's share price), who does that leave as a viable competitor to Apple? The same competitors that are emerging as the only survivors in the PC & Smartphone market: cheap, low margin, low profit, non-differentiated asian companies using windows/android. From the american competitors I really don't see how Microsoft (Surface) & Google (Motorola) hope to compete when they have a flood of competitors that can use the same software & apps they give away/license.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 8, 2013 16:38:54 GMT -8
hmmm, been thinking about Samsung's own fall from grace. If WS is correct about Samsung's future prospects (as reflected in Samsung's share price), who does that leave as a viable competitor to Apple? The same competitors that are emerging as the only survivors in the PC & Smartphone market: cheap, low margin, low profit, non-differentiated asian companies using windows/android. But that's the point. If low price is all they can offer, then they have nothing, because low price does not breed loyalty. Look again at who has survived the PC wars. None of Apple's competitors can compete on quality of design, construction, functionality and ease of use. With the exception of BBY, they are all dependent on either Microsoft (long known for its innovative software) and Google (couldn't develop shit if they didn't copy or steal it first). Add the enhanced functionality of an iWatch type device, and NOBODY can compete with even similar type devices. It would take a major enhancement to Android and/or WinMobilexxx, and for that we are looking at 2 - 3 years. By then the market will already be defined, and Apple defined it.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 8, 2013 16:43:15 GMT -8
2nd day in a row that AAPL has shown up at the top of the Buying on Weakness list.
With institutions not having to report holdings again for almost 11 weeks, I can see them accumulating more aggressively from here on.
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Post by rickag on Jul 8, 2013 16:48:41 GMT -8
Ouch. Reading that is like ripping off a scab re-opening a festering wound. Well, there is no way we'll go below 385...again.. Made me laugh, but then I cried.
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Post by appledoc on Jul 8, 2013 17:49:46 GMT -8
I've even reading through the old intraday and weekend threads. Good reminders not to make he same mistakes again. I'm glad I've stayed out for most of 2013.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 8, 2013 17:50:58 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Jul 8, 2013 18:24:48 GMT -8
Watch TSLA if you're already not. I've said this before but Elon Musk is the next closest thing to SJ you're gonna get. Also, take a gander at AAPL getting screwed by ITC it seems.. Depressing. I would be careful with Tesla. This business model has a very untested assumption it can continue to sell direct to consumers. The fit and finish of these cars is NOT up to par with other brands. Finally, there is nothing really preventing another brand from leapfrogging Tesla with the advantages of scale held by Toyota (and others). The technology is not unique to Tesla, which is winning (so far) on execution. As an aside, the interior is butt ugly. Exterior is fine. Personally, I think the easy money has been made.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 8, 2013 18:31:01 GMT -8
Apple doesn't get specific re: CGS-based depreciation, but if I had the energy, it wouldn't be that tough to figure out the lives (I'm sure it's not accelerated for financial purposes unless he is clumsily saying Apple picked a very short life).
There are simply too many moving parts to conclude the higher depreciation in isolation cost a 200 basis point margin drop YOY for FQ2 2013. The higher depreciation could easily have been offset by a portion reported in the larger CGS number (two parts in the total).
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 8, 2013 18:35:48 GMT -8
Speaking of TSLA, it's joining the NASDAQ-100 now that ORCL's moved to the NYSE. As a momo TSLA trader as of market close (yes, I still trade AAPL, but it's damn hard right now), I'm interested in seeing what effect the news (which I'm not sure was known during the AH session) will have on the stock tomorrow. OK, call it "cautiously optimistic".
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 8, 2013 18:38:39 GMT -8
Let's put it this way Mercel - is it "virtually guaranteed" under GAAP accounting principles that all (or most) of Apple's CapEx depreciation must be included in COGS? So that "all there is to do" after that is estimate useful life schedule for the various CapEx components, which are all in various stages of useful life? (That can't be easy, or fun.)
My question assumes Apple's CapEx is predominantly about securing production (more of the plant and equipment than the property and facilities for Apple employees, and Apple leases the space under all of its Apple Stores anyway AFAIK).
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Post by lovemyipad on Jul 8, 2013 19:11:10 GMT -8
Well, there is no way we'll go below 385...again.. Made me laugh, but then I cried. +1
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Post by Nevyn on Jul 8, 2013 19:52:38 GMT -8
I've even reading through the old intraday and weekend threads. Good reminders not to make he same mistakes again. I'm glad I've stayed out for most of 2013. It time to get back in ... Slowly ... After July earnings flush ...
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 8, 2013 20:13:43 GMT -8
Watch TSLA if you're already not. I've said this before but Elon Musk is the next closest thing to SJ you're gonna get. Also, take a gander at AAPL getting screwed by ITC it seems.. Depressing. I would be careful with Tesla. This business model has a very untested assumption it can continue to sell direct to consumers. The fit and finish of these cars is NOT up to par with other brands. Finally, there is nothing really preventing another brand from leapfrogging Tesla with the advantages of scale held by Toyota (and others). The technology is not unique to Tesla, which is winning (so far) on execution. As an aside, the interior is butt ugly. Exterior is fine. Personally, I think the easy money has been made. The efforts by auto dealers in several states to legislate against direct sales of autos to customers seems....odd. Why must I buy from a dealer rather than the company? Should Apple not be able to sell me a phone? Only Verizon? Tesla is risky...but I just rode in a model S and it was fun. Great handling and weird zippy. The owner wouldn't let me drive it.....the interior isn't to my liking, but the build quality looked pretty good to me ( from my 20 minute road trip). The power plant and suspension were intriguing....certainly no Prius. Hey, how about that Apple?
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Post by Deleted on Jul 8, 2013 20:16:59 GMT -8
Let's put it this way Mercel - is it "virtually guaranteed" under GAAP accounting principles that all (or most) of Apple's CapEx depreciation must be included in COGS? So that "all there is to do" after that is estimate useful life schedule for the various CapEx components, which are all in various stages of useful life? (That can't be easy, or fun.) My question assumes Apple's CapEx is predominantly about securing production (more of the plant and equipment than the property and facilities for Apple employees, and Apple leases the space under all of its Apple Stores anyway AFAIK). The depreciation related to that portion of CapEx used in the manufacturing process is dumped in CGS. It's growing but one has to believe this spending is reducing other costs formerly paid to the contract manufacturer (e.g. Foxconn, etc.)
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Post by Deleted on Jul 8, 2013 20:24:28 GMT -8
The efforts by auto dealers in several states to legislate against direct sales of autos to customers seems....odd. Why must I buy from a dealer rather than the company? Should Apple not be able to sell me a phone? Only Verizon? Tesla is risky...but I just rode in a model S and it was fun. Great handling and weird zippy. The owner wouldn't let me drive it.....the interior isn't to my liking, but the build quality looked pretty good to me ( from my 20 minute road trip). The power plant and suspension were intriguing....certainly no Prius. Tesla's arguments that it shouldn't be subject to state franchise laws is bogus, really. You can argue against the franchise laws on the books, but Tesla is being completely disingenuous arguing the traditional business model w/dealers won't work. I mean, they could effectively control the buying experience much the way GM did with Saturn. The cars performs very well: There is no denying that Tesla is front-running the competition on electric vehicles. No question about that. I'm saying that it's only a head start. Red, look at the exterior fit and finish, including the extra wide swaths of rubber moulding to cover up larger tolerances between the pieces.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 8, 2013 20:31:53 GMT -8
Let's put it this way Mercel - is it "virtually guaranteed" under GAAP accounting principles that all (or most) of Apple's CapEx depreciation must be included in COGS? So that "all there is to do" after that is estimate useful life schedule for the various CapEx components, which are all in various stages of useful life? (That can't be easy, or fun.) My question assumes Apple's CapEx is predominantly about securing production (more of the plant and equipment than the property and facilities for Apple employees, and Apple leases the space under all of its Apple Stores anyway AFAIK). Depreciation is applied within the category whence it originated. Production asset depreciation would be applied (on the Balance Sheet) against Production Equipment Assets, and offset as an expense (on the Income Statement) to COGS.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 8, 2013 20:33:59 GMT -8
The power plant and suspension were intriguing....certainly no Prius. How so? I had an order in for one, but had to cancel it.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 8, 2013 20:35:50 GMT -8
Futures are looking very Green.
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Post by madmaxroi on Jul 8, 2013 21:24:35 GMT -8
Futures are looking very Green. Oh goodie, maybe AAPL will only go down .5% instead of 1%.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Jul 9, 2013 0:15:38 GMT -8
Another day closer... AAPL will turn up eventually. I believe efficient market theory will eventually cause Apple's valuation to be revised upward. Who's to say AAPL isn't fairly valued at $415? EPS is shrinking and there is no proof that will stop anytime soon...some people (myself included) are hoping that it turns around in 2014, but that's still a long way away and no guarantee. If no new product category is released (iTV, iWatch etc), and the high end global Smartphone market continues to struggle, which Analysts are predicting, it could be that Apple is fairly valued at $415. Wow, just wow. Are you trying to be the subject of Falkirk's next column?
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Jul 9, 2013 0:26:13 GMT -8
Watch TSLA if you're already not. I've said this before but Elon Musk is the next closest thing to SJ you're gonna get. Also, take a gander at AAPL getting screwed by ITC it seems.. Depressing. I would be careful with Tesla. This business model has a very untested assumption it can continue to sell direct to consumers. The fit and finish of these cars is NOT up to par with other brands. Finally, there is nothing really preventing another brand from leapfrogging Tesla with the advantages of scale held by Toyota (and others). The technology is not unique to Tesla, which is winning (so far) on execution. As an aside, the interior is butt ugly. Exterior is fine. Personally, I think the easy money has been made. This. I'd prefer a CEO who has developed a product that can actually survive the free market on its own, not one that has relied on the intervention of government subsidies and tax credits. Same reason I avoided the solar panel company "boom." Perhaps Chasmac could tell us when Steve Jobs got subsidies and tax credits to launch Apple and Pixar. With enough tax credits, I could profitably sell ice cubes to Eskimos. Until the next president came along, that is.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 9, 2013 1:05:47 GMT -8
I would be careful with Tesla. This business model has a very untested assumption it can continue to sell direct to consumers. The fit and finish of these cars is NOT up to par with other brands. Finally, there is nothing really preventing another brand from leapfrogging Tesla with the advantages of scale held by Toyota (and others). The technology is not unique to Tesla, which is winning (so far) on execution. As an aside, the interior is butt ugly. Exterior is fine. Personally, I think the easy money has been made. This. I'd prefer a CEO who has developed a product that can actually survive the free market on its own, not one that has relied on the intervention of government subsidies and tax credits. Same reason I avoided the solar panel company "boom." Perhaps Chasmac could tell us when Steve Jobs got subsidies and tax credits to launch Apple and Pixar. With enough tax credits, I could profitably sell ice cubes to Eskimos. Until the next president came along, that is. Well it's a good thing you didn't waste your money like I did when I invested in tesla at $33 a share - oh wait...
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