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Post by phoebear611 on Jul 9, 2013 3:31:59 GMT -8
Sorry for the late post but I was watching some footage of the running of the bulls for San Fermin (which was Sunday) in Pamplona, Spain. I'm hoping to be a part of it next year ... I'll film it while my son runs it ... it's all part of his bucket list and much safer than a few things he did this summer!
One comment about Mr. Blair from Wedge Partners who put that report out yesterday. He was interviewed on Fast Money (CNBC) and if I didn't know any better and knew how honest anyone associated with WS was, I would say this is a publicity ploy. He sounded like a fumbling idiot with a blindfold throwing darts. I was embarrassed for him - basically saying he is taking guesses. But the issue is that the stock in nervous hands causes days like that ... but they are much better than they once were so - keep the faith people - the best is yet to be.
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Post by wildguess on Jul 9, 2013 3:42:09 GMT -8
This was on 247wallstreet this morning.
By 24/7 Wall St. An analyst from a tiny research firm claimed that production of Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhones will decline 20% in the second half. The claim does not hold water. Even the largest research houses can only guess what the huge consumer electronics firm's future is. And the wide spread of opinions means that only one or two can be right. The rest will be wrong. The statement seems obvious, but it is rarely mentioned. To make matters more obscure, any analyst can walk onto Wall St.'s stage and make a wild claim. If it is wild enough, it might get some attention.
Brian Blair at Wedge Partners sent a note to his clients in which he forecast that due to "slowing demand for high-end handsets globally," iPhone production will fall to 90 million to 100 million from previous a previously forecast 115 million to 120 million. The extreme spread of each forecast indicates how inaccurate both are.
No one has heard of Wedge, and its mission statement is as vague as it is unhelpful to anyone who wants to know what it does:
Wedge has five analysts, at most, according to its own PR. And none of them has a reputation worth mentioning. Each of the analysts is obscure, and most likely they found it hard to make it as a researcher at any other firm. Brian Blair had his moment in the sun for his Apple prediction. However, his previous work was with firms that are less well known than even Wedge - Dorado Capital Management and Bluewater Capital.
Blair, like much more well-known analysts, proves the case that even a stopped clock might be right twice a day. And he would be lucky to even hit that measure.
This blog is reprinted by permission from 24/7 Wall St, © 2007 24/7 Wall St., LLC All rights reserved.
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Post by macwire on Jul 9, 2013 3:45:53 GMT -8
Market reappeoaching may highs. Aapl lagging. Tsla into Nasdaq 100 after one inflated tax credit fueled profitable quarter.
Lol.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jul 9, 2013 4:24:05 GMT -8
IBM downgraded by Goldman Sachs today ... could put a drag on techs ... just fyi.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jul 9, 2013 4:30:51 GMT -8
So yesterday they were saying that production for the iPhones would be down - and today China Times reports that they need to recruit workers for what may be the iPhone 6. For the love of God - such BS everywhere - this is a traders dream as the rest of humanity panics and sells low/buys high. I wouldn't put much faith in any of this - it's all speculation but if you want to read it, here is the link: www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?id=20130709000103&cid=1102&MainCatID=0
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Post by redinaustin on Jul 9, 2013 4:51:10 GMT -8
" - this is a traders dream as the rest of humanity panics and sells low/buys high."
and therein lies the problem
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Post by macwire on Jul 9, 2013 4:58:29 GMT -8
IBM downgraded by Goldman Sachs today ... could put a drag on techs ... just fyi. So you're telling me to go long? lol
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Post by appledoc on Jul 9, 2013 5:04:41 GMT -8
IBM downgraded by Goldman Sachs today ... could put a drag on techs ... just fyi. So you're telling me to go long? lol They reduced EPS by 29 cents over three years. Great job Goldman.
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Post by appledoc on Jul 9, 2013 5:54:30 GMT -8
Nice RDR in the works.
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Post by lance on Jul 9, 2013 6:12:42 GMT -8
GOOG market cap 300bil - AAPL 380Bil. Apple makes 4 times as much in profits each year and even if it declines to 30billion in profits a year it still make 3 times as much as google currently does and has a 3% dividend and buyback. If you take out the buyback from Apple's market cap, AAPL and Goog are basically valued as equal depending on the day. I guess investors must be anticipating huge number of units of Google glasses to sell.
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Post by lance on Jul 9, 2013 6:45:54 GMT -8
AAPL just needs to hold 390+ till September and all Moving averages will be located in the same channel between 400-450 including the 200day MA. It is critical AAPL can hold from making new lows on the Earnings call that is the last key announcement between Now and September that could negatively affect the stock. If the stock reacts positive to the earnings by either flat or green trading a few days after the call. The dip is over in my opinion. Products and the dividend are coming in August and/or September so all we need is for AAPL to trade flat for another month and I suspect AAPL will go on massive bull run once the 200 day MA is leap frogged.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 9, 2013 8:10:05 GMT -8
AAPL just needs to hold 390+ till September and all Moving averages will be located in the same channel between 400-450 including the 200day MA. It is critical AAPL can hold from making new lows on the Earnings call that is the last key announcement between Now and September that could negatively affect the stock. If the stock reacts positive to the earnings by either flat or green trading a few days after the call. The dip is over in my opinion. Products and the dividend are coming in August and/or September so all we need is for AAPL to trade flat for another month and I suspect AAPL will go on massive bull run once the 200 day MA is leap frogged. GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE
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Post by zzmac on Jul 9, 2013 8:12:29 GMT -8
Guidance is important. AAPL just needs to hold 390+ till September and all Moving averages will be located in the same channel between 400-450 including the 200day MA. It is critical AAPL can hold from making new lows on the Earnings call that is the last key announcement between Now and September that could negatively affect the stock. If the stock reacts positive to the earnings by either flat or green trading a few days after the call. The dip is over in my opinion. Products and the dividend are coming in August and/or September so all we need is for AAPL to trade flat for another month and I suspect AAPL will go on massive bull run once the 200 day MA is leap frogged. GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE
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Post by moltenfire on Jul 9, 2013 8:42:36 GMT -8
It's no TSLA, but at least AAPL is doing well this early afternoon.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 9, 2013 9:17:08 GMT -8
The trading range for the day has been set at $410.68 to $420.35, which equals the MA of ~$10.00. I expect AAPL to trade pretty flat from here through Friday.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 9, 2013 9:46:32 GMT -8
It's no TSLA, but at least AAPL is doing well this early afternoon. You TSLA guys have had a nice run. Good luck holding this from here.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 9, 2013 9:50:48 GMT -8
So yesterday they were saying that production for the iPhones would be down - and today China Times reports that they need to recruit workers for what may be the iPhone 6. For the love of God - such BS everywhere - this is a traders dream as the rest of humanity panics and sells low/buys high. I wouldn't put much faith in any of this - it's all speculation but if you want to read it, here is the link: www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?id=20130709000103&cid=1102&MainCatID=0This analyst is exactly what's wrong with WS. He should be tarred and feathered, as simple embarrassment isn't enough to stop him. When is someone going to start a rating service on analysts?
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Post by mcharliem on Jul 9, 2013 10:02:19 GMT -8
So yesterday they were saying that production for the iPhones would be down - and today China Times reports that they need to recruit workers for what may be the iPhone 6. For the love of God - such BS everywhere - this is a traders dream as the rest of humanity panics and sells low/buys high. I wouldn't put much faith in any of this - it's all speculation but if you want to read it, here is the link: www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?id=20130709000103&cid=1102&MainCatID=0This analyst is exactly what's wrong with WS. He should be tarred and feathered, as simple embarrassment isn't enough to stop him. When is someone going to start a rating service on analysts? It already exists. It's called Starmine data.
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Post by prazan on Jul 9, 2013 10:26:11 GMT -8
Scott Redler (Mr. Red Dog Reversal) just tweeted that he has gone long in AAPL and is working on a call spread based on what he sees as a bullish flag in today's price action. Mr. Redler is a trader, which means he can be out of the stock by the time I post this.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 9, 2013 10:39:48 GMT -8
It's no TSLA, but at least AAPL is doing well this early afternoon. You TSLA guys have had a nice run. Good luck holding this from here. It was just a one-day trade here. Not that I'm complaining...AAPL's action today seems hard to explain. It's just me, but if AAPL hangs in there today, this could be an interesting change in composure. As always, "what does this mean, where are we headed next then?" doesn't have a definitive answer.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 9, 2013 10:40:56 GMT -8
Of course, Redler having to serve his T3 clients over the Twittersphere, he may have bought in around the time AAPL broke through yesterday's low, or something like that.
The good: AAPL escaped mid-channel, and short-term uptrend appears to be "confirmed" by daily MACD-h for now. Until it's not of course, but you gotta start somewhere.
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Post by appledoc on Jul 9, 2013 10:50:26 GMT -8
Looking good. Wish I had been able to take advantage of that RDR. Such a great setup.
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Post by mace on Jul 9, 2013 11:00:50 GMT -8
GOOG market cap 300bil - AAPL 380Bil. Apple makes 4 times as much in profits each year and even if it declines to 30billion in profits a year it still make 3 times as much as google currently does and has a 3% dividend and buyback. If you take out the buyback from Apple's market cap, AAPL and Goog are basically valued as equal depending on the day. I guess investors must be anticipating huge number of units of Google glasses to sell. The bull story is Google would benefit immensely from the global migration to fiber optics (from coaxial) for home. Google itself has the Google Fiber Initiative in USA. I believe Apple is waiting patiently for this fiber optics co-innovation ecosystem to be ready before launching iTV (not the Apple TV set top). Timing is everything.
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Post by capablanca on Jul 9, 2013 11:09:42 GMT -8
GOOG market cap 300bil - AAPL 380Bil. Apple makes 4 times as much in profits each year and even if it declines to 30billion in profits a year it still make 3 times as much as google currently does and has a 3% dividend and buyback. If you take out the buyback from Apple's market cap, AAPL and Goog are basically valued as equal depending on the day. I guess investors must be anticipating huge number of units of Google glasses to sell. The bull story is Google would benefit immensely from the global migration to fiber optics (from coaxial) for home. Google itself has the Google Fiber Initiative in USA. I believe Apple is waiting patiently for this fiber optics co-innovation ecosystem to be ready before launching iTV (not the Apple TV set top). Timing is everything. Currently, in round numbers, Netflix and its ilk account for 75% of bandwidth utilization in the U.S. (Source: The CEO of a startup I am working with.)
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 9, 2013 11:28:20 GMT -8
AAPL briefly ticked above the latest uptrend high (which was about 423.3).
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Post by macwire on Jul 9, 2013 11:29:02 GMT -8
GOOG market cap 300bil - AAPL 380Bil. Apple makes 4 times as much in profits each year and even if it declines to 30billion in profits a year it still make 3 times as much as google currently does and has a 3% dividend and buyback. If you take out the buyback from Apple's market cap, AAPL and Goog are basically valued as equal depending on the day. I guess investors must be anticipating huge number of units of Google glasses to sell. The bull story is Google would benefit immensely from the global migration to fiber optics (from coaxial) for home. Google itself has the Google Fiber Initiative in USA. I believe Apple is waiting patiently for this fiber optics co-innovation ecosystem to be ready before launching iTV (not the Apple TV set top). Timing is everything. Who needs to data mine your search when you do a your web traffic on their fiber. They can literally data mine everything you do (which is pretty much what they likely do via chrome)
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Post by Deleted on Jul 9, 2013 11:41:04 GMT -8
This analyst is exactly what's wrong with WS. He should be tarred and feathered, as simple embarrassment isn't enough to stop him. When is someone going to start a rating service on analysts? It already exists. It's called Starmine data. Thanks. I've emailed them to learn more details. I don't see what I want but indications are they may be doing some of what I want. I'll forward to PED if it's not behind a paywall.
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Post by terps530 on Jul 9, 2013 11:43:02 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 9, 2013 12:00:33 GMT -8
Wasn't expecting that kinda relative strength from AAPL today. Interesting.
Good solid close.
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Post by mcharliem on Jul 9, 2013 12:02:40 GMT -8
It already exists. It's called Starmine data. Thanks. I've emailed them to learn more details. I don't see what I want but indications are they may be doing some of what I want. I'll forward to PED if it's not behind a paywall. Unfortunately, I believe almost all of their data costs money. They rank analysts on how accurate they've been in the past using a number different methods. They also compile their own analyst consensus estimates where they overweight who they determine to be the good analysts while under weighting the crappy ones. As far as I know, they don't analyze the "independent" analysts at all.
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