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Post by Deleted on Jul 9, 2013 14:48:17 GMT -8
From Link: Goldman expects Apple to guide below the Street with September revenue of $35.32 billion and $7.33, versus consensus of $37.90 billion and $8.18. Q4 guidance of $35.32 billion??? To put that in perspective,Q4 last year apple reported $35.96 Billion. So Goldman is suggesting Apple will guide an amount $640 million less than last year? Q4 last year, with a supply constrained new form factor iPhone 5, apple shipped 27 million iPhones. Every million iPhones apple ships above that number is an extra $600 million in revenue. Assuming apple launches the iPhone at the same time or earlier than last year, I would expect iPhones to come in at a very conservative minimum of 30 million (+ $1.8 billion in revenue) to an optimistic 37 million+ (+ $6 billion in revenue). Assuming iTunes segment continues its steady year on year and sequential increases, that should be at least an increase of $500 million, as high as +$1 billion. iPad revenue is harder to predict due to a more uncertain refresh date, but since it occurred in Q1 last year (November), then the comparison this year would either be neutral (if iPad release is again in Q1) or very positive (if iPad release takes place in Q4). iPods will be down, but revenue is negative $200 million at most. Macs could be up, flat or down, impossible to say at this point - ASP is currently trending higher, but overall PC market shrinking. Given all that, it would be a brave person to suggest apple would guide $640 million lower than last years actuals. At the most, Apples new guidance range may have a bottom range approaching that, but Goldman didn't qualify there prediction by saying it would be the guidance low point. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt, but I would put more faith in the consensus of $37.90 billion being closer to reality (which is $2 billion higher than last years actual).
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Post by appledoc on Jul 9, 2013 15:16:27 GMT -8
From Link: Goldman expects Apple to guide below the Street with September revenue of $35.32 billion and $7.33, versus consensus of $37.90 billion and $8.18. Q4 guidance of $35.32 billion??? To put that in perspective,Q4 last year, when apple had a supply constrained iPhone 5 launch 2 weeks before quarter end, apple reported $35.96 Billion. So Goldman is suggesting Apple will guide an amount less than last year? They think this years iPhone launch is going to somehow be more constrained than last year?? Highly unlikely. Apple doesn't guide to unannounced products. There's no guarantee that the 5S gets released in Q4.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 9, 2013 15:17:26 GMT -8
If this is for me, I've got a day job. I mean, don't we have enough TA people drawing the same squiggly lines... I'm going to draw a squiggly line mustache on you! Thank you and can I have another? ;D
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Post by Deleted on Jul 9, 2013 15:20:46 GMT -8
OMG: 5 cents. I'm gonna start calling you Little Toe... ;D
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 9, 2013 15:48:44 GMT -8
Mercel, often there's one or two offball quotes in AH that make it LOOK like there's been a bigger move than there was. For example, I was shorting WYNN the other day and saw an AH print of up over 1%. Mild concern, until it turned out to have been someone buying in too high.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 9, 2013 15:50:53 GMT -8
From Link: Goldman expects Apple to guide below the Street with September revenue of $35.32 billion and $7.33, versus consensus of $37.90 billion and $8.18. Q4 guidance of $35.32 billion??? To put that in perspective,Q4 last year, when apple had a supply constrained iPhone 5 launch 2 weeks before quarter end, apple reported $35.96 Billion. So Goldman is suggesting Apple will guide an amount less than last year? They think this years iPhone launch is going to somehow be more constrained than last year?? Highly unlikely. Apple doesn't guide to unannounced products. There's no guarantee that the 5S gets released in Q4. Things might change now. "Likely to report within" can really only be taken literally. If it's unlikely iPhone 5S will launch in fiscal Q4...well, I can't see Apple ever moving the release date UP.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 9, 2013 16:20:18 GMT -8
7 Apple doesn't guide to unannounced products. There's no guarantee that the 5S gets released in Q4. Things might change now. "Likely to report within" can really only be taken literally. If it's unlikely iPhone 5S will launch in fiscal Q4...well, I can't see Apple ever moving the release date UP. IOS7 is in the third beta and chugging along. I can't BELIEVE Apple does not want to hit very early September, at the latest, for the big event...sales starting the weekend following. Right now I am looking at August 27 for the event with sales starting on Labor Day weekend...back to school with Iphone 5s, and IOS 7. Maybe I'll buy a couple of those new plastic Iphone cheapos for the kids....but then we need more lightening adaptors... August 27....sounds good....mark it down.
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Post by appledoc on Jul 9, 2013 16:23:40 GMT -8
7 Things might change now. "Likely to report within" can really only be taken literally. If it's unlikely iPhone 5S will launch in fiscal Q4...well, I can't see Apple ever moving the release date UP. IOS7 is in the third beta and chugging along. I can't BELIEVE Apple does not want to hit very early September, at the latest, for the big event...sales starting the weekend following. Right now I am looking at August 27 for the event with sales starting on Labor Day weekend...back to school with Iphone 5s, and IOS 7. Maybe I'll buy a couple of those new plastic Iphone cheapos for the kids....but then we need more lightening adaptors... August 27....sounds good....mark it down. I really, really hope the low end iPhone isn't available in the US.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 9, 2013 16:39:37 GMT -8
7 IOS7 is in the third beta and chugging along. I can't BELIEVE Apple does not want to hit very early September, at the latest, for the big event...sales starting the weekend following. Right now I am looking at August 27 for the event with sales starting on Labor Day weekend...back to school with Iphone 5s, and IOS 7. Maybe I'll buy a couple of those new plastic Iphone cheapos for the kids....but then we need more lightening adaptors... August 27....sounds good....mark it down. I really, really hope the low end iPhone isn't available in the US. Right now I'm betting it replaces the 4s in the lineup. Then everything has the lightening adapter. The 5s, the 5 and the free with a contract Nano...... In the developing world the Nano sells for a very reasonable price if not subsidized but has the processing power to run 10S 7 and introduce millions more to the ecosystem.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 9, 2013 16:41:12 GMT -8
A good luck at IOs 7...the birth of dynamic interface. www.imore.com/forget-icons-and-typefaces-ios-7-birth-dynamic-interface"I've been watching the iOS 7 video over and over again since WWDC 2013. Part of that is because I'm writing our iOS 7 preview series, and part of it is because there's just so much to unpack about what we were shown, it's implications and ramifications. From the moment Tim Cook debuted it on the keynote stage, and the audience's breath caught at the parallax and their smiles intensified at the collisions, it should have been apparent there was a lot more going on at the code level than the pixel level. It was fundamental change, and not of style but of substance." ______________ Yessir!...and "I keep linking to those pieces again and again because, to me, it's such a new language that it needs to be contextualized each and every time it's approached. Here's the gist, though: Apple has built a complete, robust physics and particle engine for iOS 7. Elements don't just go from point A to point B, they move through a "real" world. They react to the accelerometer and gyroscope, they collide and bounce off each other and with the edges of the display, and they can change color according to the environment around them. They behave like objects in space, and interact like objects in a game. It's not pixels painted so much anymore as particles placed, and not areas touched so much as directly manipulated."
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Post by Deleted on Jul 9, 2013 16:42:01 GMT -8
My WAG: September 3, a Tuesday, after Labor Day and just before the expiration of the 2013 Back-to-School promotion, which not incidentally limits the promotion to select models (fine print). But yeah, the earlier the better. Last year's event was on September 12th, and I have to believe they're going to front-run last year's event by at least a week.
Beta updates are happening every two weeks. At the current rate, GM looks like mid to late August if we get 5 beta versions (last year was 5, but #5 was out there for less than a week if memory serves). iOS7 is a big update so let's assume 5; iOS7 Beta 3 looks damn good to me.
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Post by The Big Toe on Jul 9, 2013 17:30:17 GMT -8
OMG: 5 cents. I'm gonna start calling you Little Toe... ;D I was seeing a drop of over $5.00. So yea, go ahead and tease me... It's all fun and games until the fat kid starts to cry.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jul 9, 2013 17:48:00 GMT -8
Toe, ROFLMAO!!
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 9, 2013 17:51:14 GMT -8
OMG: 5 cents. I'm gonna start calling you Little Toe... ;D I was seeing a drop of over $5.00. So yea, go ahead and tease me... It's all fun and games until the fat kid starts to cry. Mercel's not THAT fat....
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Post by Deleted on Jul 9, 2013 18:01:09 GMT -8
I was seeing a drop of over $5.00. So yea, go ahead and tease me... It's all fun and games until the fat kid starts to cry. Mercel's not THAT fat.... And not quite this skinny...
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Post by sponge on Jul 9, 2013 18:54:54 GMT -8
Checking in from Miami Beach. Was busy transferring money while on the Harbor Cruise and buying up options. Looking very good the next three weeks. Will be in Key West tomorrow and will be buying more on the snorkeling tour if we get over 425. Will buy stock after we get over 460. iPhones and iPads everywhere in Orlando at Disneyworld and here in Miami.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 9, 2013 20:55:46 GMT -8
Checking in from Miami Beach. Was busy transferring money while on the Harbor Cruise and buying up options. Looking very good the next three weeks. Will be in Key West tomorrow and will be buying more on the snorkeling tour if we get over 425. Will buy stock after we get over 460. iPhones and iPads everywhere in Orlando at Disneyworld and here in Miami. "I won't buy more until we're above $460" = Must buy every time it goes up for fear I miss the run!
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 9, 2013 20:58:43 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 9, 2013 21:10:29 GMT -8
Eddy's certainly got the cred to get an invite, but it's interesting that _two_ Apple execs are attending the Sun Valley conference. You just know Mercel's liking this.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 9, 2013 23:03:11 GMT -8
Eddy's certainly got the cred to get an invite, but it's interesting that _two_ Apple execs are attending the Sun Valley conference. You just know Mercel's liking this. Eddy is Apple's go to negotiator.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 9, 2013 23:31:15 GMT -8
Goldman expects Apple to guide below the Street with September revenue of $35.32 billion and $7.33, versus consensus of $37.90 billion and $8.18. Goldman is trying to game the market, just as it did when it advised its clients to load up on $450 Calls ahead of April earnings. Based on several historic facts and business common sense (which doesn't mean anything unless it all comes true) I see the next iPhone launching in the the early part of September, if and only if, Apple also announces a China Mobile deal (Docomo isn't a factor until there's a change in leadership there). FWIW, I'm modeling September guidance above $37 Billion.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 9, 2013 23:35:11 GMT -8
Apple doesn't guide to unannounced products. There's no guarantee that the 5S gets released in Q4. Apple guides to the revenue it expects to generate. If its expectations includes revenue from new products it will be there. What Apple doesn't do is tell that its guidance includes new product revenue.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 9, 2013 23:38:00 GMT -8
I can't BELIEVE Apple does not want to hit very early September, at the latest, for the big event...sales starting the weekend following. Right now I am looking at August 27 for the event with sales starting on Labor Day weekend...back to school with Iphone 5s, and IOS 7. August 27....sounds good....mark it down. I wholeheartedly agree.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 9, 2013 23:44:05 GMT -8
My WAG: September 3, a Tuesday, after Labor Day and just before the expiration of the 2013 Back-to-School promotion, which not incidentally limits the promotion to select models (fine print). But yeah, the earlier the better. Last year's event was on September 12th, and I have to believe they're going to front-run last year's event by at least a week. Beta updates are happening every two weeks. At the current rate, GM looks like mid to late August if we get 5 beta versions (last year was 5, but #5 was out there for less than a week if memory serves). iOS7 is a big update so let's assume 5; iOS7 Beta 3 looks damn good to me. Good logic, but I think the release date has more to do with a signed China Mobile deal (shipments beginning in January) than your thesis.
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