Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 11, 2013 0:51:34 GMT -8
Early going in premarket: Index futures and AAPL all up about 1% so far. Heres a report that was actually released yesterday, detailing broad smartphone market trends and also specific Apple predictions: (Seems a bit iffy in its methodology though: "...writing that his calls to wireless stores in the U.S., and his surveys globally, suggest sales of smartphones were "slightly softer"...) blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2013/07/10/apple-samsung-canaccord-cuts-smartphone-view-nokia-bbry-sales-still-soft/Apple details: Canaccord reiterates BUY rating, Price Target of $530 FY13 estimate: $39.29 FY14 estimate: $44.04 EDIT: Perhaps worth noting that that the author, Mike Walkley, was the 2nd most accurate analyst last quarter (in PEDs analyst smackdown at least)
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Post by appledoc on Jul 11, 2013 1:57:44 GMT -8
44EPS in FY14 would be extremely disappointing. Extremely isn't even a good choice to describe it, but I can't think of anything more fitting. It would SUCK.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 11, 2013 2:08:27 GMT -8
44EPS in FY14 would be extremely disappointing. Extremely isn't even a good choice to describe it, but I can't think of anything more fitting. It would SUCK. Average street estimate for FY2014 is $43.55 Too low in my opinion, but wall street analysts are typically conservative with estimates.
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Post by artman1033 on Jul 11, 2013 5:20:36 GMT -8
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 11, 2013 6:00:11 GMT -8
Pain says what by tomorrow... 425 max?
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Post by terps530 on Jul 11, 2013 6:04:36 GMT -8
kind of. 415-420, but yea there are 13k calls at 425 and 16.5k at 430. it's possible a lot of people put on bear positions yesterday going into bernankes after hours comments, so these may adjust a lot today.
i wonder if this 422-423 battleground will break out today, up or down...
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Post by nagrani on Jul 11, 2013 6:25:26 GMT -8
I think we are going way up. IMO.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Jul 11, 2013 6:50:40 GMT -8
This is very interesting. Horace Dedieu has spoken in his most recent Critical Path episodes about the uniqueness (for a company of its size) of Apple's purely functional (as opposed to divisional) organization. It sounds like Microsoft is attempting to derive the benefits of a functional organization, but as in its tablet strategy, is taking an "everything but the kitchen sink" approach by layering the functional approach on top of its existing structure. I predict that this will be as successful as Surface has been. There are just too many people who derive their power from and are therefore loathe to give up the current divisional structure.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 11, 2013 7:29:34 GMT -8
Nice little run to $5+
I read that Cramer thinks Microsoft is undervalued. I don't know what he sees going with Softie, but none of it looks good to me. Windows 8.1 will make it safe for PC'ers to upgrade but if given the choice, most would still prefer Win7. Still, its mobile efforts are failing big.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 11, 2013 7:34:03 GMT -8
Pain says what by tomorrow... 425 max? Probably. I see OI putting brakes on AAPL at $425. If not, then $430. Thanks weekly gamblers! The curse of AAPL continues...
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Post by sponge on Jul 11, 2013 7:41:01 GMT -8
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bud777
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Post by bud777 on Jul 11, 2013 7:47:52 GMT -8
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Jul 11, 2013 8:06:51 GMT -8
And Bloomberg is actually highlighting the cover on Bloomberg TV... javascript:add("%20: ")
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Post by tuffett on Jul 11, 2013 8:32:03 GMT -8
Sounds wonderful. Can't wait for Verizon offer deep discounts and cheapen the iPhone brand. Also can't wait for other carriers to use this as a negotiating chip to back away from large purchase commitments. If a huge carrier in Apple's most successful country has such a huge oversupply of iPhones, how would anyone else meet whatever Apple is asking for? This is bad news in the long term - if true. CM and Docomo must be licking their. Chops at this news.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jul 11, 2013 8:40:16 GMT -8
Nice little run to $5+ I read that Cramer thinks Microsoft is undervalued. I don't know what he sees going with Softie, but none of it looks good to me. Windows 8.1 will make it safe for PC'ers to upgrade but if given the choice, most would still prefer Win7. Still, its mobile efforts are failing big. According to several tweets I read, Mad Money (Cramer's show) is one of two CNBC shows that has lost huge viewership.
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Post by nagrani on Jul 11, 2013 8:45:18 GMT -8
Good. No one wants to watch an idiot that loses money for people.
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Post by Lstream on Jul 11, 2013 8:51:26 GMT -8
Sounds wonderful. Can't wait for Verizon offer deep discounts and cheapen the iPhone brand. Also can't wait for other carriers to use this as a negotiating chip to back away from large purchase commitments. If a huge carrier in Apple's most successful country has such a huge oversupply of iPhones, how would anyone else meet whatever Apple is asking for? This is bad news in the long term - if true. CM and Docomo must be licking their. Chops at this news. Verizon should start by killing its policies of trying to sell an Android device to every customer that sets foot in a Verizon store. Maybe they would sell more iPhones if they were not so biased.
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Post by tuffett on Jul 11, 2013 9:04:29 GMT -8
Sounds wonderful. Can't wait for Verizon offer deep discounts and cheapen the iPhone brand. Also can't wait for other carriers to use this as a negotiating chip to back away from large purchase commitments. If a huge carrier in Apple's most successful country has such a huge oversupply of iPhones, how would anyone else meet whatever Apple is asking for? This is bad news in the long term - if true. CM and Docomo must be licking their. Chops at this news. Verizon should start by killing its policies of trying to sell an Android device to every customer that sets foot in a Verizon store. Maybe they would sell more iPhones if they were not so biased. That I agree with, but they are already selling a ton of iPhones. If this oversupply is to be believed, it's a huge number and can't be attributed solely to their decision to push non-iPhones.
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Post by rickag on Jul 11, 2013 9:12:16 GMT -8
Sounds wonderful. Can't wait for Verizon offer deep discounts and cheapen the iPhone brand. Also can't wait for other carriers to use this as a negotiating chip to back away from large purchase commitments. If a huge carrier in Apple's most successful country has such a huge oversupply of iPhones, how would anyone else meet whatever Apple is asking for? This is bad news in the long term - if true. CM and Docomo must be licking their. Chops at this news. Verizon should start by killing its policies of trying to sell an Android device to every customer that sets foot in a Verizon store. Maybe they would sell more iPhones if they were not so biased. You would have thought Verison could have figured this out a long time ago.
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Post by Lstream on Jul 11, 2013 9:17:53 GMT -8
Verizon should start by killing its policies of trying to sell an Android device to every customer that sets foot in a Verizon store. Maybe they would sell more iPhones if they were not so biased. That I agree with, but they are already selling a ton of iPhones. If this oversupply is to be believed, it's a huge number and can't be attributed solely to their decision to push non-iPhones. Well, no matter what the numbers are, in a good-faith business deal, then Verizon would have the foundation to go back to Apple and try to re-negotiate. Especially if they could say "we are doing our best". But they are not. They are actively promoting Android over iPhones. You can see Cook's frustration in his message to the stores. He wants more people buying phones in Apple stores. In part because customers are not being properly sold on the benefit of iPhones in Verizon stores. So Verizon is setting themselves up for Apple to tell them"tough luck - come back to us when you straighten up your act".
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Post by Lstream on Jul 11, 2013 9:18:32 GMT -8
Verizon should start by killing its policies of trying to sell an Android device to every customer that sets foot in a Verizon store. Maybe they would sell more iPhones if they were not so biased. You would have thought Verison could have figured this out a long time ago. Ya - seems obvious, doesn't it?
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Post by sponge on Jul 11, 2013 9:29:43 GMT -8
That I agree with, but they are already selling a ton of iPhones. If this oversupply is to be believed, it's a huge number and can't be attributed solely to their decision to push non-iPhones. Well, no matter what the numbers are, in a good-faith business deal, then Verizon would have the foundation to go back to Apple and try to re-negotiate. Especially if they could say "we are doing our best". But they are not. They are actively promoting Android over iPhones. You can see Cook's frustration in his message to the stores. He wants more people buying phones in Apple stores. In part because customers are not being properly sold on the benefit of iPhones in Verizon stores. So Verizon is setting themselves up for Apple to tell them"tough luck - come back to us when you straighten up your act". Bingo. VZ will have to buy these phones weather they like it or not. They may negotiate the permission to lower prices but Apple will still get top dollar from them. Watch a massive promotion for the older models in the next three months. I think we will see a significant increase in iOS market share in the last quarter of the year here in the US. Verizon had their cake and it is time to pay up.
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Post by gtrplyr on Jul 11, 2013 9:31:06 GMT -8
That I agree with, but they are already selling a ton of iPhones. If this oversupply is to be believed, it's a huge number and can't be attributed solely to their decision to push non-iPhones. Well, no matter what the numbers are, in a good-faith business deal, then Verizon would have the foundation to go back to Apple and try to re-negotiate. Especially if they could say "we are doing our best". But they are not. They are actively promoting Android over iPhones. You can see Cook's frustration in his message to the stores. He wants more people buying phones in Apple stores. In part because customers are not being properly sold on the benefit of iPhones in Verizon stores. So Verizon is setting themselves up for Apple to tell them"tough luck - come back to us when you straighten up your act". Not sure I understand why in a "Good faith business deal" one side is allowed to change the contract terms. Watching all of these carriers go out of their way to push Droid phones has always bothered me. It seems like they wish Apple would just go away so they can sell that cheap crap (probably with higher margins for themselves). But the reality is people want iPhones .... I'm still hoping that someday Apple starts their own network. I'm sure they can rent towers and put the other systems in place pretty quickly. I know I'd be there in a heartbeat as I've always hated every carrier I've ever been with.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 11, 2013 9:31:14 GMT -8
Despite Verizon's alleged failure to live up to its alleged purchase commitments, iPhone is still doing half-decent. Note also most of these contracts were SJ era. Things may be different now. And why wouldn't a NEW iPhone carrier like to buy a decent supply for customers?
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Post by gtrplyr on Jul 11, 2013 9:32:02 GMT -8
Well, no matter what the numbers are, in a good-faith business deal, then Verizon would have the foundation to go back to Apple and try to re-negotiate. Especially if they could say "we are doing our best". But they are not. They are actively promoting Android over iPhones. You can see Cook's frustration in his message to the stores. He wants more people buying phones in Apple stores. In part because customers are not being properly sold on the benefit of iPhones in Verizon stores. So Verizon is setting themselves up for Apple to tell them"tough luck - come back to us when you straighten up your act". Not sure I understand why in a "Good faith business deal" one side is allowed to change the contract terms. Watching all of these carriers go out of their way to push Droid phones has always bothered me. It seems like they wish Apple would just go away so they can sell that cheap crap (probably with higher margins for themselves). But the reality is people want iPhones .... I'm still hoping that someday Apple starts their own network. I'm sure they can rent towers and put the other systems in place pretty quickly. I know I'd be there in a heartbeat as I've always hated every carrier I've ever been with. Oh yeah ... SCREW Verizon ...
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Post by rickag on Jul 11, 2013 9:34:15 GMT -8
That I agree with, but they are already selling a ton of iPhones. If this oversupply is to be believed, it's a huge number and can't be attributed solely to their decision to push non-iPhones. Well, no matter what the numbers are, in a good-faith business deal, then Verizon would have the foundation to go back to Apple and try to re-negotiate. Especially if they could say "we are doing our best". But they are not. They are actively promoting Android over iPhones. You can see Cook's frustration in his message to the stores. He wants more people buying phones in Apple stores. In part because customers are not being properly sold on the benefit of iPhones in Verizon stores. So Verizon is setting themselves up for Apple to tell them"tough luck - come back to us when you straighten up your act". I would like to be a fly on the wall during the highest level discussions between Apple and Verizon. I doubt Apple will say "tough luck" but Apple will definitely bring up Verizon's bias toward anything Android. There has to be a deal in there somewhere that won't satisfy both parties but will be acceptable.
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Post by tuffett on Jul 11, 2013 9:35:44 GMT -8
That I agree with, but they are already selling a ton of iPhones. If this oversupply is to be believed, it's a huge number and can't be attributed solely to their decision to push non-iPhones. Well, no matter what the numbers are, in a good-faith business deal, then Verizon would have the foundation to go back to Apple and try to re-negotiate. Especially if they could say "we are doing our best". But they are not. They are actively promoting Android over iPhones. You can see Cook's frustration in his message to the stores. He wants more people buying phones in Apple stores. In part because customers are not being properly sold on the benefit of iPhones in Verizon stores. So Verizon is setting themselves up for Apple to tell them"tough luck - come back to us when you straighten up your act". That's not really what we should be concerned about though. The concern is what kind of impact this news has on other carriers, especially the two big ones that Apple dearly needs for a boost to growth - China Mobile and Docomo. If purchase commitments are one of the stumbling blocks in negotiations, then Apple's position just got a whole lot weaker. Again, that is if this report reflects the truth, which I'm not certain of.
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Post by Lstream on Jul 11, 2013 9:37:45 GMT -8
Well, no matter what the numbers are, in a good-faith business deal, then Verizon would have the foundation to go back to Apple and try to re-negotiate. Especially if they could say "we are doing our best". But they are not. They are actively promoting Android over iPhones. You can see Cook's frustration in his message to the stores. He wants more people buying phones in Apple stores. In part because customers are not being properly sold on the benefit of iPhones in Verizon stores. So Verizon is setting themselves up for Apple to tell them"tough luck - come back to us when you straighten up your act". Not sure I understand why in a "Good faith business deal" one side is allowed to change the contract terms. Watching all of these carriers go out of their way to push Droid phones has always bothered me. It seems like they wish Apple would just go away so they can sell that cheap crap (probably with higher margins for themselves). But the reality is people want iPhones .... I'm still hoping that someday Apple starts their own network. I'm sure they can rent towers and put the other systems in place pretty quickly. I know I'd be there in a heartbeat as I've always hated every carrier I've ever been with. On the "good faith" comment, I am not suggesting that the contract says they can change anything. What I mean that there are two ends of the extreme re Verizon behaviour. 1. Aggressive selling of competing devices - aka Android. 2. Aggressively selling and promoting of iPhones, or at least giving these devices equal treatment to the Android devices. If they were behaving as in point 2, then then their business partner would likely at least entertain the notion of renegotiating the commits. But behaviour 1 does not give them high ground to even ask.
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Post by rickag on Jul 11, 2013 9:40:41 GMT -8
Just a thought:
Both Verizon and ATT sell iPhones on contracts that last ~2 years. It is in both Verizon and ATT's interest that owners of subsidized phones hold those phones longer than the 2 year contract.
I just wonder who keeps their phones the longest after the subsides are paid after 2 years, Android or iPhone owners? I would bet on iPhones, even if they are passed along to family members or the children of parents that buy iPhones. I know in my family our children get our used iPhones.
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Post by moltenfire on Jul 11, 2013 9:44:53 GMT -8
I think Verizon is hoping they've become too important a partner for AAPL to tell them to "pay up".
Purchase commitments are an integral part of most distribution contracts, and are a part of Cook's supply chain. I can't imagine Apple giving concessions on this point.
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