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Post by Deleted on Jul 12, 2013 10:52:03 GMT -8
Did you factor in that a new less expensive iPhone might have better margins than the older models Apple sells at discount, the iPhone 4 & 4s may have lower margins than a new less expensive iPhone. Just a thought. I will right after you show me how Apple reduces COGS from ~$300 (current ASP of iPhone 4, iPhone 4S and iPhone 5 ~$600) to <$175 (ASP of low priced iPhone $350).
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Post by rickag on Jul 12, 2013 10:57:38 GMT -8
Did you factor in that a new less expensive iPhone might have better margins than the older models Apple sells at discount, the iPhone 4 & 4s may have lower margins than a new less expensive iPhone. Just a thought. I will right after you show me how Apple reduces COGS from ~$300 (current ASP of iPhone 4, iPhone 4S and iPhone 5 ~$600) to <$175 (ASP of low priced iPhone $350). Point taken.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 12, 2013 11:00:18 GMT -8
FINALLY! Google Alert - "Katy Huberty" Apple News1 new result for "Katy Huberty" Apple Double Whammy! iPhone 5S & 6 Launching Together In September (Barclays) SidhTech Apple generally release a brand new iPhone every year, and they have done so since 2007. However analysts for Wall Street say that 2013 will be different. Analyst for Morgan Stanley, Katy Huberty says that Apple will release two handsets this year. Wonder if she has any credibility on this one? I guess that would mean that we move from a 4, 4S, 5 lineup to a 5, 5S, 6 lineup? That would be aggressive and impressive if true. EDIT - trying to find a link on this, and all I can find is stuff that is months old. So I guess, bottom line is that I don't believe it unless there is something recent. Surprise !!! I don't believe it, link or not.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Jul 12, 2013 11:17:48 GMT -8
Yes, and they bought $425 AAPL calls.
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Post by macwire on Jul 12, 2013 11:18:38 GMT -8
UMC has options lol
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 12, 2013 11:23:46 GMT -8
There may well be two new iPhones. You won't see an iPhone 6. Since some people want a bigger screen they would still think "5S" even if the iPhone was redesigned and forged in liquid metal unobtainium this year. 5S + CheapPhone should be just fine tho. Can we agree it will be "Mid-Line iPhone? Just as the MacBooks were never called cheap MacBook Pros, I think we have a corollary here. It's looking like the extra iPhone in Sept. will cover the lack of a tentpole feature in iPhone 5s (as I'm not hearing ANYTHING about a fingerprint sensor in the supply chain). Mercel, I'm only calling it the CheapPhone out of sarcasm. If Apple has a new form factor for either an A5+LTE-type iPhone or an A6+LTE-type iPhone (which would be both aggressive and quite awesome), it'll have a much better name, I'm sure. But there is a bit of an image problem though. "Here's our 'same-looking', 'evolutionary not revolutionary' iPhone 5S - and please welcome our all-new-looking iPhone!" If there IS a CheapPhone, I bet there's more to it than a "staid carryover" and something new-looking.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 12, 2013 11:26:57 GMT -8
Well, if the fingerprint tech isn't ready, it isn't ready.
Even so, iPhone 5S should have more to stand on than faster processor and better camera. That's not the way Apple rolls, at least not since the 3GS (and back then, it added video capture and basic voice control, I'm not giving much credit to the compass).
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coma
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Post by coma on Jul 12, 2013 11:58:17 GMT -8
Well, if the fingerprint tech isn't ready, it isn't ready. Why does it have to be a fingerprint scanner, couldn't it be a retina scanner ?
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Post by Lstream on Jul 12, 2013 12:01:45 GMT -8
Well, if the fingerprint tech isn't ready, it isn't ready. Why does it have to be a fingerprint scanner, couldn't it be a retina scanner ? If this is delayed, it is not because of the scanner. They exist and are already have built into other phones. My bet is that Apple wants some form of complete experience that actually gets used. Not just a fingerprint scanner sitting their doing nothing. A retina scanner would be harder to integrate, not simpler. I also think that the average consumer will not be comfortable getting their iris scanned. Which translates into serious adoption problems.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 12, 2013 12:03:45 GMT -8
I'm fine with a close above $425, which is bullish given OI of calls > puts at this strike. I think the early rise in AAPL at the open enabled that.
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Post by aapl4kiki on Jul 12, 2013 12:05:56 GMT -8
James Bamfords books.."The Puzzle Palace" and "Body of Secrets" reveal a tantalizing look inside the NSA. Neither book has been discredited. They imply that everything on the net is mirrored by NSA. I don't think this is a recent phenomena. Bomb, terror, IED, hacking, Al Qaeda, overthrow, revolution, sharia law, constitution, tea party, uranium, plutonium, marijuana, hijacking, capitalist pigs, nitrous oxide, Bashar Hafez al-Assad, Mahmoud Ahmedinejad, Taliban, dirty bomb, .... قنبلة والإرهاب، العبوات الناسفة، والقرصنة، تنظيم القاعدة، الإطاحة، ثورة، الشريعة، الدستور، حزب الشاي، اليورانيوم، البلوتونيوم، الماريجوانا، اختطاف، الخنازير الرأسمالي، وأكسيد النيتروز، بشار حافظ الأسد، محمود أحمدي نجاد، طالبان، قنبلة قذرة ، .... Hello NSA, since you're here got any scoops on the direction of AAPL? Here's my favorite: AAPL ALL TIME HIGH AAPL ALL TIME HIGH AAPL ALL TIME HIGH Make it happen.
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Post by rickag on Jul 12, 2013 12:22:06 GMT -8
Not many though. .25 is the bid for Jan 14 @ a 2.50 strike. A hundred bucks gets you 4. There has been action. All total I think I saw at least 50 options bought over all strikes and expiration dates.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Jul 12, 2013 13:31:13 GMT -8
I'm fine with a close above $425, which is bullish given OI of calls > puts at this strike. I think the early rise in AAPL at the open enabled that. I agree, bullish day, bouncing off of 425 strike all day. Most positions are closed up by the last 15 minutes anyway (like my 425- 430 was). Looking at next week, a fairly open field for a monthly. If I don't see at least 2-1 on a strike at this point, I don't consider it significant, so 450 is the real call wall ATM. A bump at 440, but that is subject to change if we bounce on Monday.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 12, 2013 14:21:57 GMT -8
There may well be two new iPhones. You won't see an iPhone 6. Since some people want a bigger screen they would still think "5S" even if the iPhone was redesigned and forged in liquid metal unobtainium this year. 5S + CheapPhone should be just fine tho. Can we agree it will be "Mid-Line iPhone? Just as the MacBooks were never called cheap MacBook Pros, I think we have a corollary here. It's looking like the extra iPhone in Sept. will cover the lack of a tentpole feature in iPhone 5s (as I'm not hearing ANYTHING about a fingerprint sensor in the supply chain). Probable iPhone 5S exclusives: - 120 FPS Slow motion camera (already found in iOS 7) - advanced-LTE cellular capability (reported that apple in discussions with South Korea carrier, and AT&T probably announcing next week) - A7 SoC - tentpole software app/feature announced at launch
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Post by appledoc on Jul 12, 2013 14:45:46 GMT -8
Can we agree it will be "Mid-Line iPhone? Just as the MacBooks were never called cheap MacBook Pros, I think we have a corollary here. It's looking like the extra iPhone in Sept. will cover the lack of a tentpole feature in iPhone 5s (as I'm not hearing ANYTHING about a fingerprint sensor in the supply chain). Probable iPhone 5S exclusives: - 120 FPS Slow motion camera (already found in iOS 7) - advanced-LTE cellular capability (reported that apple in discussions with South Korea carrier, and AT&T probably announcing next week) - A7 SoC - tentpole software app/feature announced at launch They need to do way more than that.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 12, 2013 14:59:43 GMT -8
Well, maybe not NEED, but SHOULD. Apple isn't doomed if the iPhone 5S doesn't have a fingerprint reader. The S4 isn't setting the world on fire, yet Samsung's mobile division is in no immediate danger.
That said I expect great things from the 5S. A 3GS-type new iPhone will see AAPL under pressure, which would be deserved IMHO.
Then again (again), the compare in most consumers' eyes is from the 4S. 5 >> 5S upgraders will be relatively few. Will the 5S be compelling to a 4S owner?
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Post by Deleted on Jul 12, 2013 15:16:47 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 12, 2013 15:37:35 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Jul 12, 2013 15:41:45 GMT -8
Did you factor in that a new less expensive iPhone might have better margins than the older models Apple sells at discount, the iPhone 4 & 4s may have lower margins than a new less expensive iPhone. Just a thought. I will right after you show me how Apple reduces COGS from ~$300 (current ASP of iPhone 4, iPhone 4S and iPhone 5 ~$600) to <$175 (ASP of low priced iPhone $350). The new $229 entry level A5 iPod touch presumably has a GM of at least 30% - meaning a COGS of about $150 (after allowing for retailer margin). Adding cellular components and rear camera to that hardware, and using plastic instead of metal, wouldnt raise the cost by any more than $30 for Apple. Even cheaper if Apple chooses 3G only instead of LTE. Those extra components a year ago were considered to cost around $45 for the iPhone 5 (iSuppli estimate), without taking into account apple volume discounts. This year i would assume the cellular components are cheaper, and the rear facing camera would also be lower specced than the iphone 5 camera. Also Apple would actually save money on materials by using plastic instead of metal. A new iPhone based on the iPod touch hardware wouldn't just be better than the iPhone 4, it would also be better than the iPhone 4S. How the $229 iPod touch is currently better than the $550 iPhone 4S: - iPod is Airdrop compatible vs no Airdrop compatibility for iPhone 4S - iPod has 32nm A5 vs the iPhones 45nm A5 (4S is less power efficient) - 4" screen vs 3.5" screen - lightning connector vs 30 pin connector - wifi with dual 2.4ghz & 5ghz vs Wifi with 2.4ghz only - HD 720p FaceTime camera vs VGA resolution FaceTime camera - new apple earpods vs old apple earphones - iPod touch form factor is compatible with iPhone 5/5S hardware accessories, iPhone 4S isn't. Other reasons to replace the iPhone 4S: All iPhones could be LTE compatible. Better for developers & accessory makers - eliminating the 3.5" screen size is good for developers (and users) - eliminating the 3.5" form factor is good for accessory makers (and users) - eliminating the 30 pin connector is good for accessory makers (and users) Better for apples economies of scale for iOS devices - all devices use the same 4" screen size - all devices use the same lightning connectors - all devices use the same HD facetime cameras - all devices use the same wifi chipset - eliminates the last device using the 45nm A5 processor China Mobile - The entry level iPhone could be compatible with China Mobiles network, which the current entry level models, iPhone 4 & 4S, are not. If you don't introduce a new entry level phone, then its likely the only iPhone compatible with china mobiles data network will be the premium model (iPhone 5S) - a $650 phone (even more in china!). That would be insane. Ignoring all other arguments, this single reason alone is enough to justify replacing the iPhone 4S with a new entry level model. To sum up: A new iPhone that is essentially a plastic iPod touch level device with cellular added will be more powerful, better featured and likely cheaper to make than the iPhone 4S.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 12, 2013 15:44:44 GMT -8
Probable iPhone 5S exclusives: - 120 FPS Slow motion camera (already found in iOS 7) - advanced-LTE cellular capability (reported that apple in discussions with South Korea carrier, and AT&T probably announcing next week) - A7 SoC - tentpole software app/feature announced at launch They need to do way more than that. Why? That's pretty much the only difference the 4S had over the 4. Better camera / more advanced cellular data / new SoC / new software feature (Siri). Actually, after the 4 went from premium phone to mid level option, its storage decreased from 16GB to 8GB, but apple didn't do that with the 4S when it got demoted (it stayed at 16GB). So maybe the new iPhone 5S will also come with 32GB storage as its base model. Would that be enough of a difference for an extra $100? I think so.
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Post by nathanstevens on Jul 12, 2013 15:51:44 GMT -8
I will right after you show me how Apple reduces COGS from ~$300 (current ASP of iPhone 4, iPhone 4S and iPhone 5 ~$600) to <$175 (ASP of low priced iPhone $350). The new $229 entry level A5 iPod touch presumably has a GM of at least 30% - meaning a COGS of about $150 (after allowing for retailer margin). Adding cellular components and rear camera to that hardware, and using plastic instead of metal, wouldnt raise the cost by any more than $30 for Apple. Even cheaper if Apple chooses 3G only instead of LTE. Those extra components a year ago were considered to cost around $45 for the iPhone 5 (iSuppli estimate), without taking into account apple volume discounts. This year i would assume the cellular components are cheaper, and the rear facing camera would also be lower specced than the iphone 5 camera. Also Apple would actually save money on materials by using plastic instead of metal. A new iPhone based on the iPod touch hardware wouldn't just be better than the iPhone 4, it would also be better than the iPhone 4S. How the $229 iPod touch is currently better than the $550 iPhone 4S: - iPod is Airdrop compatible vs no Airdrop compatibility for iPhone 4S - iPod has 32nm A5 vs the iPhones 45nm A5 (4S is less power efficient) - 4" screen vs 3.5" screen - lightning connector vs 30 pin connector - wifi with dual 2.4ghz & 5ghz vs Wifi with 2.4ghz only - HD 720p FaceTime camera vs VGA resolution FaceTime camera - new apple earpods vs old apple earphones - iPod touch form factor is compatible with iPhone 5/5S hardware accessories, iPhone 4S isn't. Other reasons to replace the iPhone 4S: All iPhones could be LTE compatible. Better for developers & accessory makers - eliminating the 3.5" screen size is good for developers (and users) - eliminating the 3.5" form factor is good for accessory makers (and users) - eliminating the 30 pin connector is good for accessory makers (and users) Better for apples economies of scale for iOS devices - all devices use the same 4" screen size - all devices use the same lightning connectors - all devices use the same HD facetime cameras - all devices use the same wifi chipset - eliminates the last device using the 45nm A5 processor China Mobile - The entry level iPhone could be compatible with China Mobiles network, which the current entry level models, iPhone 4 & 4S, are not. If you don't introduce a new entry level phone, then its likely the only iPhone compatible with china mobiles data network will be the premium model (iPhone 5S) - a $650 phone (even more in china!). That would be insane. Ignoring all other arguments, this single reason alone is enough to justify replacing the iPhone 4S with a new entry level model. To sum up: A new iPhone that is essentially a plastic iPod touch level device with cellular added will be more powerful, better featured and likely cheaper to make than the iPhone 4S. We're thinking along the same lines. 3.5" screen and 30 pin connector are dead come the next upgrade cycle. I think that audio only FaceTime calls may play a role in this too. I'm not sure about plastic though. Even the cheap iPods are aluminum.
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