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Post by Deleted on Jul 14, 2013 13:47:49 GMT -8
Aren't rumors fun? Off of unsubstantiated/unknown sources, fueled people are allowed to come up with any thing they want, but are sure is going to happen.
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Post by tuffett on Jul 14, 2013 15:00:27 GMT -8
Wouldn't the bigger difference between 2012 and earlier years be: - The change in refresh schedule - the iPhone 4S was released 4 months later in the year than previous years, meaning during the March quarter the device was still almost brand new (rather than 6 months old) - China - the last two years china sales have risen rapidly, and the March quarter in 2012 was the launch quarter in China for the iPhone 4S. Good points. They may be a factor but when you address YoY results for the December quarter (quarter most heavily impacted by launch date) those arguments do not explain December quarter spikes. YoY (calendar 2012 over calendar 2011) March unit increase in absolute terms was 17,000,000 units (88.7%). You can't attribute that increase to China, neither can you attribute launch date variances. In absolute terms YoY (calendar 2012 over calendar 2011) December unit increased 17,800,000 units (109%). Even with the delayed launch of the iPhone 4S, unit sales increased by 17,800,000 units (109%), followed by March results that reflected an increase of 17,000,000 (88.7%). Another way to compare the significance of a new product is to look at the first six months after launch. Here we see: iPhone 3 ...11,300,000 units iPhone 3S 17,500,000 units iPhone 4 ...30,300,000 units iPhone 4S 72,100,000 units iPhone 5 ...85,200,000 units Note that the 4S (SIRI) outsold all previous models...combined. You cannot attribute a sales increase of that magnitude to differences in launch date and Chinese consumption. That leaves only SIRI as a defining difference, which brings me back to iOS 7. I'm modeling iPhone sales, in the first 6 months (two full quarters) after launch of the next iteration, at >110,000,000 units (29% YoY growth). This estimate is based on the size of the first 6 months of iPhone sales occurring after the release of the iPhone 4S, and an expected ratio (declining) of new customer halo sales, accelerated by iOS 7 feature capabilities as yet unannounced. I am not considering a China Mobile and/or Docomo launch in these figures (although I believe we will see a China Mobile launch in the March quarter). If smartphone sales have hit market saturation, iPhone sales of this magnitude is going to have a hugely negative impact on Samsung (Android), RIMM (Blackberry) and NOK (Winxx) sales and market share. Think positive change in AAPL sentiment through fiscal 2014. Unlike Siri, iOS7 will be available on three past generations of iPhones (4, 4S and 5). It would be less of an incentive to upgrade unless there's a killer yet to be announced tentpole feature that is restricted to the 5S/6.
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Post by tuffett on Jul 14, 2013 15:03:21 GMT -8
How you could possibly know revenues will be greater than WS expects? Or the market reaction to it, even if you did? I don't know market reaction in this quarter. But WS has such negative view of smartphone growth and the iPhone they will be shocked in Oct with 1st quarter guidance. We will get over $500 in Oct for sure.Don't forget the fine print! "Required Disclaimer: All of my predictions are WAGs."
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Post by Deleted on Jul 14, 2013 16:02:48 GMT -8
Unlike Siri, iOS7 will be available on three past generations of iPhones (4, 4S and 5). It would be less of an incentive to upgrade unless there's a killer yet to be announced tentpole feature that is restricted to the 5S/6. True enough. But iPhone sales during first 6 months of iPhone 5 launch exceeded SIRI equipped 4S unit sales by 13,000,000 (18%). The same % unit growth achieves 100,000,000 units sold, without an iOS 7 upgrade. WS is starting to come in at ~60,000,000 units for the December quarter. 40,000,000 for FQ2/2014 represents a 33% QoQ drop. FQ2 unit sales have never dropped that much. The average FQ2 unit growth is slightly greater than -4% (covering a 6 year range from -26% to +14%). Six year average plus: 1 Standard Deviation ..= 12.99% 2 Standard Deviations = 30.20% Anything is possible, but I feel pretty confident in my 110,000,000 unit number for the Dec and Mar quarters.
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Post by tuffett on Jul 14, 2013 16:13:42 GMT -8
Unlike Siri, iOS7 will be available on three past generations of iPhones (4, 4S and 5). It would be less of an incentive to upgrade unless there's a killer yet to be announced tentpole feature that is restricted to the 5S/6. True enough. But iPhone sales during first 6 months of iPhone 5 launch exceeded SIRI equipped 4S unit sales by 13,000,000 (18%). The same % unit growth achieves 100,000,000 units sold, without an iOS 7 upgrade. WS is starting to come in at ~60,000,000 units for the December quarter. 40,000,000 for FQ2/2014 represents a 33% QoQ drop. FQ2 unit sales have never dropped that much. The average FQ2 unit growth is slightly greater than -4% (covering a 6 year range from -26% to +14%). Six year average plus: 1 Standard Deviation ..= 12.99% 2 Standard Deviations = 30.20% Anything is possible, but I feel pretty confident in my 110,000,000 unit number for the Dec and Mar quarters. That's a reasonable number, and it should be handily exceeded if the "cheaper" iPhone becomes a reality.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 14, 2013 17:13:49 GMT -8
Hurrah !!!
I've got my iPhone back, and frankly it was Apple technology that did it.
Apparently my iPhone slipped out of my shorts pocket yesterday while a passenger in a friend's car on the way to breakfast.
I watched it travel all over town today with Find iPhone. After not having done so in a while I hit Play Sound and my friend heard it. It was on the floor between the seat and console. She says it wouldn't have been found until the car was scrapped out.
Yea. Funny how your disposition changes with something as small as finding your iPhone (aka Life).
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Post by appledoc on Jul 14, 2013 18:24:12 GMT -8
True enough. But iPhone sales during first 6 months of iPhone 5 launch exceeded SIRI equipped 4S unit sales by 13,000,000 (18%). The same % unit growth achieves 100,000,000 units sold, without an iOS 7 upgrade. WS is starting to come in at ~60,000,000 units for the December quarter. 40,000,000 for FQ2/2014 represents a 33% QoQ drop. FQ2 unit sales have never dropped that much. The average FQ2 unit growth is slightly greater than -4% (covering a 6 year range from -26% to +14%). Six year average plus: 1 Standard Deviation ..= 12.99% 2 Standard Deviations = 30.20% Anything is possible, but I feel pretty confident in my 110,000,000 unit number for the Dec and Mar quarters. That's a reasonable number, and it should be handily exceeded if the "cheaper" iPhone becomes a reality. If the low end iPhone comes to fruition, it will only be a matter of how many they can produce. I'm still hoping for a CM deal in conjunction with the release of the phone.
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Post by nagrani on Jul 14, 2013 18:32:53 GMT -8
No CM deal but a cheap phone that can be bought and uses on the network. Think about it - Tim cook wants people buying iPhones in their stores. Well, it's about to happen in a big way with the iPhone Color phone.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 14, 2013 18:45:44 GMT -8
What's up with John Gruber? His recent podcast titled "Eddy Cue is Going to Jail" is unlistenable, the pair jabbering about baseball for 8 minutes? WTF? Hey John, get to the F'ing topic of your pod cast -- if anyone has more patience than I, please post what you learn about Eddy.
This and his shameless, relentless plugging of his VERY average app (I ain't plugging it here) suggests Gruber is about to jump the shark.....is he getting bored with Apple?
His weekend posts have dried up too....just more proof that the hardest man working Apple is PED.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 14, 2013 18:48:09 GMT -8
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Post by sponge on Jul 14, 2013 18:54:10 GMT -8
I don't know market reaction in this quarter. But WS has such negative view of smartphone growth and the iPhone they will be shocked in Oct with 1st quarter guidance. We will get over $500 in Oct for sure.Don't forget the fine print! "Required Disclaimer: All of my predictions are WAGs." Do you ever comment without attacking me or others?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 14, 2013 20:40:38 GMT -8
Eh, Gruber's here and there. His podcasts meander, so I only listen in when I think there might be something about product rumors. Which is very infrequently.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 14, 2013 20:42:23 GMT -8
Signing a deal to design chips that might not even have a semi-final design, and actually taped out in even trial batches probably never. Surrrrrrrre. May well be that Apple continues to multi-source to be safe. But Samsung's getting a bit nervous about continually losing business from a multibillion customer, I imagine. Such a shame. ;D
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Post by Deleted on Jul 14, 2013 20:46:28 GMT -8
I imagine if the TSMC deal reported on a week or two back was indeed true, then Samsung maybe realised it had lost all leverage in future negotiations with apple.
It wouldn't surprise me if the Samsung report is true, and that apple got a very good deal.
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Post by tuffett on Jul 14, 2013 22:01:43 GMT -8
Don't forget the fine print! "Required Disclaimer: All of my predictions are WAGs." Do you ever comment without attacking me or others? Yes.
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