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Post by phoebear611 on Jul 15, 2013 2:24:31 GMT -8
The FT story on AAPL hiring aggressively for iWatch is making its rounds this morning. Business television stations chatting about it - good because it validates that iWatch "should be a product that is coming" and bad because "Tim Cook said we would be getting new product categories 'this' fall." It's lots of the stuff we spoke about over the weekend. Earnings week starts to get very interesting - tomorrow is Goldman Sachs and Yahoo .... and then more as the week continues. Here's hoping for a good week for our precious fruit company!
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Post by Deleted on Jul 15, 2013 2:36:58 GMT -8
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Post by rob_london on Jul 15, 2013 3:05:44 GMT -8
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Post by phoebear611 on Jul 15, 2013 3:16:24 GMT -8
The media already has but everyone seems a bit suspicious ... particularly that it is coming out of China (conspiracy theories)...who knows??? But it's pretty weird.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 15, 2013 4:19:43 GMT -8
Jeffries is probably the least reliable source on Apple (on BRBY too, for that matter, given his buy call on it). It is pure white noise; annoying and it's not likely to go away....
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Post by jmolloy on Jul 15, 2013 4:20:45 GMT -8
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Post by rickag on Jul 15, 2013 5:37:12 GMT -8
The media already has but everyone seems a bit suspicious ... particularly that it is coming out of China (conspiracy theories)...who knows??? But it's pretty weird. Tragic death. Other reports are coming out that she got out of the bath to answer the call.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 15, 2013 5:45:48 GMT -8
Apple has shown a pattern of morning consolidation and then a 10:30 or so spike up....
The pattern on the first part is underway. Do we spike to 430 or above?
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Post by artman1033 on Jul 15, 2013 5:48:21 GMT -8
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Post by capablanca on Jul 15, 2013 5:53:27 GMT -8
Last week I had a meeting with someone who knows a lot more than I do. (This seems to be happening with increasing frequency, as I transition from senior master to fossil.) The subject matter was unrelated to Apple, but our iPhones triggered a brief joint expression of admiration for the company.
It is my client's view that Apple already has several new products that qualify as new categories. It is further his view that, while there may be exceptions, the main reason we have yet to see any of these is that Apple is waiting for the time to be right. He cites iTunes, iPhone and iPad introductions as being timed for release when the marketplace was ready, not when the products were ready.
This may be an oversimplification and/or subject to semantic quibbles, but I found myself nodding as he spoke.
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Post by lance on Jul 15, 2013 5:54:51 GMT -8
if you use Stochastics as a key technical measuring play. We are basically about to peak on the short term.
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Post by terps530 on Jul 15, 2013 6:19:55 GMT -8
first winning trade for me in a while... picked up some jul 20 weekly 430s friday and just sold them now almost for 100%.
ps sorry for playing weeklies, but it was a small bet and i felt it!
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Post by sponge on Jul 15, 2013 6:21:05 GMT -8
Last week I had a meeting with someone who knows a lot more than I do. (This seems to be happening with increasing frequency, as I transition from senior master to fossil.) The subject matter was unrelated to Apple, but our iPhones triggered a brief joint expression of admiration for the company. It is my client's view that Apple already has several new products that qualify as new categories. It is further his view that, while there may be exceptions, the main reason we have yet to see any of these is that Apple is waiting for the time to be right. He cites iTunes, iPhone and iPad introductions as being timed for release when the marketplace was ready, not when the products were ready. This may be an oversimplification and/or subject to semantic quibbles, but I found myself nodding as he spoke. I have been saying that for two years. As much as we want to see certain features or new products, Apple will only release them when they are close to perfect. Nice strong move this morning.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 15, 2013 6:42:37 GMT -8
LIke Terps, I did something right for a change. Bought this morning at 425....waited for the 10:30 bounce.
voila...
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Post by sponge on Jul 15, 2013 6:57:31 GMT -8
LIke Terps, I did something right for a change. Bought this morning at 425....waited for the 10:30 bounce. voila... The chart is looking like Friday. If we follow the similar pattern then we should drop down to 426 and close around 428.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 15, 2013 7:04:26 GMT -8
LIke Terps, I did something right for a change. Bought this morning at 425....waited for the 10:30 bounce. voila... The chart is looking like Friday. If we follow the similar pattern then we should drop down to 426 and close around 428. This is monday. Not options expiration friday. I don't think the patterns will mimic here. Today is reloading for many managers...The bounce off 429 after the morning rush is encouraging. We are building to a stronger finish today, hopefully well above 430. But, this is my WAG.... . I know nothing.
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Post by redinaustin on Jul 15, 2013 7:10:25 GMT -8
@panzer: Someone dumped all of the WWDC 2013 session videos on YouTube. t.co/wzkvks6Yf8welp.
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Post by sponge on Jul 15, 2013 7:19:44 GMT -8
Very interesting. I wonder what negative news the media could use after record weekend numbers to drop the stock.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Jul 15, 2013 7:35:32 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Jul 15, 2013 8:13:47 GMT -8
LIke Terps, I did something right for a change. Bought this morning at 425....waited for the 10:30 bounce. voila... You guys are breaking my heart (and my wallet). Like a train that stops at every RR crossing, AAPL will unlikely ever build momentum if it has to artificially stop on Thursdays and Fridays. I'm mixed about the solution: Either the weekly players go broke or Apple screws with the call writers and knocks out the weekly pin, to the displeasure of institutions. I'll stop now...
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Post by Deleted on Jul 15, 2013 8:19:23 GMT -8
So with Ballmer at the center of the org. chart, MSFT's future was never more in question. Wasn't it Bill Gates who questioned Apple's org. chart, saying that without Steve Jobs the whole thing comes down? Bill Gates surely signed off on this deck-chairs-on-the-Titanic plan, which is surprising.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 15, 2013 8:34:15 GMT -8
I'm with JD on OI this week. For July monthlies, OI is coming down, which is GREAT (Although I wish there were 10's of thousands of put contracts at $430 and higher. No clear runway but without a catalyst, something over $430 on Friday seems reasonable.
I tried to attach a screen shot of OI but no joy....
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 15, 2013 8:36:24 GMT -8
LIke Terps, I did something right for a change. Bought this morning at 425....waited for the 10:30 bounce. voila... You guys are breaking my heart (and my wallet). Like a train that stops at every RR crossing, AAPL will unlikely ever build momentum if it has to artificially stop on Thursdays and Fridays. I'm mixed about the solution: Either the weekly players go broke or Apple screws with the call writers and knocks out the weekly pin, to the displeasure of institutions. I'll stop now... Hey, I bought common. Not options. I'm still holding those shares. I'm looking at a long play....like days or even weeks.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 15, 2013 8:44:53 GMT -8
You guys are breaking my heart (and my wallet). Like a train that stops at every RR crossing, AAPL will unlikely ever build momentum if it has to artificially stop on Thursdays and Fridays. I'm mixed about the solution: Either the weekly players go broke or Apple screws with the call writers and knocks out the weekly pin, to the displeasure of institutions. I'll stop now... Hey, I bought common. Not options. I'm still holding those shares. I'm looking at a long play....like days or even weeks. A 1,000 apologies. I still think AAPL doesn't do much ahead of July 23 -- no one is expecting anything great. After that, we have new product noise coming from multiple directions. If we get an announcement of new iPhones in late August or early September, we should get lift. Maybe not Saturn V stuff, but after Bezos went fishing for the rocket engines, I'm not such a big Saturn V fan.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 15, 2013 9:07:55 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Jul 15, 2013 9:45:11 GMT -8
I still think AAPL doesn't do much ahead of July 23 -- no one is expecting anything great. After that, we have new product noise coming from multiple directions. Unlike all previous earnings I will not be playing this one. There is just to much question about how the market will react. On the one hand we're going to get negative earnings growth (BAD), but on the other I'm expecting solid guidance (GOOD). Which is going to prevail, those looking at past performance, or those looking at future prospects? Initially I think the former will prevail (for about a week), until the latter has had time to digest the prospects of future profits. The futurists are going to want revenue (lower of range) guidance of $37 Billion, or more, to excite them to action and that is what I am forecasting.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 15, 2013 10:11:53 GMT -8
I still think AAPL doesn't do much ahead of July 23 -- no one is expecting anything great. After that, we have new product noise coming from multiple directions. Unlike all previous earnings I will not be playing this one. There is just to much question about how the market will react. On the one hand we're going to get negative earnings growth (BAD), but on the other I'm expecting solid guidance (GOOD). Which is going to prevail, those looking at past performance, or those looking at future prospects? Initially I think the former will prevail (for about a week), until the latter has had time to digest the prospects of future profits. The futurists are going to want revenue (lower of range) guidance of $37 Billion, or more, to excite them to action and that is what I am forecasting. Negative earnings growth has been dialed into this stock since April earnings call -- no surprise there. Apple's guidance, if estimated under the new and improved forecasting of Peter O, should be good (and telling) if new iPhones launch no later than the first week of Sept.. $37B in sales guidance should be well within reach if there's no delay (i.e. a launch later than last year).
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Post by Deleted on Jul 15, 2013 10:37:37 GMT -8
Negative earnings growth has been dialed into this stock since April earnings call -- no surprise there. Apple's guidance, if estimated under the new and improved forecasting of Peter O, should be good (and telling) if new iPhones launch no later than the first week of Sept.. $37B in sales guidance should be well within reach if there's no delay (i.e. a launch later than last year). Funny you should refer to an early September launch. I was talking to Sponge about my thoughts on that just last week. It boils down to whether a CM agreement has been reached. I'm not going to speculate further on that subject, but if there is, I think launch of the next iPhone will occur earlier (early September) than last year. This is because iPhone production is largely balanced to full year demand, and not launch quarter demand. Apple mitigates much of the December quarter demand by commencing production pre-launch and stockpiling inventory. Residual December quarter demand is satisfied in January. Except that this year's demand is going to be accelerated by iOS 7, with another potential boost coming from a CM launch in January. That extra demand could require an earlier launch date than the end of September. I'm forecasting 110,000,000 iPhones sold during the December and March quarters. That's 25,000,000 units more than Dec/March fiscal 2013, with the increase almost equaling total FQ4/2012 sales. That delta requires more production time, and may explain, to some degree, Apple's low guidance for FQ3/2013, and the shift of Mac production to the US (free up Foxconn production capacity). Anyway, I see a very real possibility of an early September launch.
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Post by nagrani on Jul 15, 2013 10:42:36 GMT -8
Gregg - if ios7 is going to be available on almost every apple mobile device - what is your logic behind more folks buying the new iPhone? Don't follow your logic but want to.
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Post by sponge on Jul 15, 2013 10:43:18 GMT -8
If reports about 5S being produced by end of the month are true, then early Sept launch may come to fruition.
My only concern is that TC said fall.
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