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Post by sponge on Jul 16, 2013 11:33:46 GMT -8
Well I may be nuts, but transferred a little cash and bough more calls. This flat line action should move by end of the week and Monday. Low volume concerns me but I attribute it to complete darkness by those in the action regarding earnings. No one feels confident to buy until Apple confirms that revenue growth is still there.
We just need to get past 460 and hold it post earnings.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 16, 2013 11:49:44 GMT -8
Micro IHS to 435ish? Well, it happens or it doesn't.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 16, 2013 11:51:32 GMT -8
"Tech" money moving out of TSLA going into AAPL today? I did exactly that a week ago when TSLA broke $125 - its a great company, but from my view on its fundamentals valuation I thought it was at least 50% overvalued so couldn't justify keeping money in it.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 16, 2013 12:04:34 GMT -8
I wonder. Apple has the cache to force adoption of industry standards. I'll bet the solution is to come from outside, with the provider's source of revenue, ie., medicare, insurance. Instead of the individual medical providers setting the standards, the revenue providers do. You want to get paid, you will adopt this standard. The revenue providers incentive to establish a standard is clear, efficiency reduces costs, which by extension improves insurer's profits and reduces governmental expense. Have a look at this article. It provides a glimpse of just how hard this problem is. The author and others have been predicting widespread adoption for decades. Standards-setting has been around for years. In fact, this Simborg guy pioneered the entire field. I met him a few times and he was/is hugely impressive. A physician by training and very computer literate at the same time. The kind of physician challenges he talks about are real. They are incredibly difficult to satisfy. And if you satisfy one group, the very next one will tell you the solution is garbage. Apple would not be the first tech company to waste a ton of cash on this stuff. Pretty much all the major tech and consulting companies have had a go in this field. Including non-lighweights like IBM. The last thing Apple needs to do is to divert its attention into this sink hole. So overall, I don't believe the prediction of this stuff being widespread by 2018. www.informationweek.com/healthcare/electronic-medical-records/health-it-in-2018-crystal-ball-predictio/240152349?pgno=1That's some interesting coverage, thanks for sharing. I think apple has a chance to come from a asymmetric angle. Rather than trying to break into the industry via normal sales channels, instead sneak in via widespread adoption by patients. Kind of like how the Mac / iPhone / iPad broke into enterprise through BYOD policies and CEO demands. For instance I think the killer app of the rumoured iWatch will be health monitoring (through built in sensors, and keeping record of physical activity by accelerometer & location services) - if it becomes standard for iOS users (demographically the richer half of the US population) then its likely GPs & specialists are going to start seeing more patients coming to them with valuable data, and the capability for a record keeping database that can also track the iOS data history would be very valuable. As I type this I can already imagine new wonderful capabilities - how about the ability to set a automatic notification to a GP if a iWatch wearing patients location becomes a hospital?
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Post by Deleted on Jul 16, 2013 12:06:20 GMT -8
Good to see a close over $430 - first time in almost a month!
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Post by mace on Jul 16, 2013 12:16:36 GMT -8
For instance I think the killer app of the rumoured iWatch will be health monitoring (through built in sensors, and keeping record of physical activity by accelerometer & location services) ... I'll buy one if true. Integration with Apple's ecosystem is a big plus.
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Post by Lstream on Jul 16, 2013 12:35:09 GMT -8
I think apple has a chance to come from a asymmetric angle. Rather than trying to break into the industry via normal sales channels, instead sneak in via widespread adoption by patients. Kind of like how the Mac / iPhone / iPad broke into enterprise through BYOD policies and CEO demands. For instance I think the killer app of the rumoured iWatch will be health monitoring (through built in sensors, and keeping record of physical activity by accelerometer & location services) - if it becomes standard for iOS users (demographically the richer half of the US population) then its likely GPs & specialists are going to start seeing more patients coming to them with valuable data, and the capability for a record keeping database that can also track the iOS data history would be very valuable. As I type this I can already imagine new wonderful capabilities - how about the ability to set a automatic notification to a GP if a iWatch wearing patients location becomes a hospital? Ya, they can do this. Individual little apps and services can come into limited or widespread use. My comments relate to the all singing, all dancing Electronic Health Record coming into Universal use. That was the original suggestion, as something that Apple should take on. If they did, I think it would be a disaster. Also, it would never help Apple sell desktops as originally suggested. Any solution would need to support Windows. Trying to sell to physicians or hospitals is like walking through glue. Especially when the patient record is part of the discussion. Some of the concepts that Simborg is talking about in that article are exactly what we tried to implement. And we had a world class consulting partner as part of the effort. Those guys had CIO and CEO level relationships. Didn't matter. The physicians rule, and working with them is like herding cats. And our experience was no where near unique. Many companies, large and small have paid the price for trying to pursue this market. iOS devices have a big use case and future in healthcare. But the correct strategy is to rely upon third party developers who can attack various niches. And stuff like an iWatch with the right sensors can help. But God help whoever tries to go down the path of tying their success into EMR integration. They will starve to death. The EMR reminds me of the Odysseus and the Sirens. The benefits, both financial and otherwise are so large and so obvious that chasing it can be irresistible. Many have tried, and have very little to show for it. Apple would fare no better. I have great respect for Apple and their capabilities, but in this market they would be chewed alive and spat out.
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Post by appledoc on Jul 16, 2013 12:35:32 GMT -8
I don't see the iWatch having health monitoring capabilities. It's not as useful as you all may think.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 16, 2013 12:39:17 GMT -8
tech.fortune.cnn.com/2013/07/16/apple-russia-iphone-nyet/I think the following things are very likely related: 1. Apples lack of distribution by Russian carriers 2. Russia’s absence of phone subsidies (they are illegal there) 3. Apple recently opening its own online retail store in Russia 4. The rumoured launch of a new cheap iPhone very soon, which is well suited to unsubsidised markets. We are always talking about china mobile & NTT Docomo carrier deals as drivers for iPhone growth, but launching a new phone that is much better suited to unsubsidised markets like the 180 million fairly affluent users in Russia (and the 2 billion less affluent in Brazil, India & China) will likely be a way bigger driver for iPhone growth. It really only just hit me how much more attractive a new lower cost iPhone is going to be in these markets vs the premium android handsets. I’m very excited
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Post by Deleted on Jul 16, 2013 12:42:57 GMT -8
I don't see the iWatch having health monitoring capabilities. It's not as useful as you all may think. I think it would be important to myself, but of course a large majority of the population may disagree (although as soon as there is one report about always on health monitoring in a smartwatch saving someone's life by helping diagnose a previously unknown serious health issue, I would feel safe in predicting a large increase in public interest).
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Post by nagrani on Jul 16, 2013 12:45:50 GMT -8
Burgess +1 Why isn't anyone else waking up to this. A $329 iPhone is a game changer.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 16, 2013 12:50:56 GMT -8
Low volume concerns me but I attribute it to complete darkness by those in the action regarding earnings. No one feels confident to buy until Apple confirms that revenue growth is still there. We just need to get past 460 and hold it post earnings. What Apple/AAPL needs is to get past the bad compares from last year's results. We actually won't be there until October earnings, but we'll get a good, strong hint about October in Apple's FQ4/2013 guidance next week. Guidance sets the sentiment table. Sentiment dictates price.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 16, 2013 12:55:28 GMT -8
I don't see the iWatch having health monitoring capabilities. It's not as useful as you all may think. On that you and I disagree.
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Post by mace on Jul 16, 2013 13:43:20 GMT -8
My comments relate to the all singing, all dancing Electronic Health Record coming into Universal use. That was the original suggestion, as something that Apple should take on. If they did, I think it would be a disaster. Also, it would never help Apple sell desktops as originally suggested. Any solution would need to support Windows. Could a 13" iPad replace those frontend Wintel PCs?
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Post by Deleted on Jul 16, 2013 13:56:35 GMT -8
My comments relate to the all singing, all dancing Electronic Health Record coming into Universal use. That was the original suggestion, as something that Apple should take on. If they did, I think it would be a disaster. Also, it would never help Apple sell desktops as originally suggested. Any solution would need to support Windows. Could a 13" iPad replace those frontend Wintel PCs? LStream is correct...the EMR/Medical industry is a joke and Doctors are terrible about consolidating on a single solution that someone else has decided is better, because their needs are different so they need a different solution. I've worked in the industry for 10 years and it's amazing how far behind it is...also how expensive the software is because of all the customization.
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Post by Lstream on Jul 16, 2013 13:58:19 GMT -8
My comments relate to the all singing, all dancing Electronic Health Record coming into Universal use. That was the original suggestion, as something that Apple should take on. If they did, I think it would be a disaster. Also, it would never help Apple sell desktops as originally suggested. Any solution would need to support Windows. Could a 13" iPad replace those frontend Wintel PCs? Technically maybe. Practically no. IT guys in hospitals are never going to agree to any system that forces all user devices to be from Apple. Especially with the existing investment in legacy systems. Including other software that expects a Windows system. The iPad (likely the mini) will find more acceptance in new use cases, like providing Physicians with a tool to use at bedside. Many of the challenges I am talking about have nothing to do with hardware. The hardware technology to do EMR's has existed for years. iPads or any other tablet makes no material difference to the core issues and problems standing in the way of adoption.
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Post by Lstream on Jul 16, 2013 14:00:13 GMT -8
I've worked in the industry for 10 years and it's amazing how far behind it is...also how expensive the software is because of all the customization. Exactly - in this product category, you are never "Done". It is a total frikken nightmare of an industry.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jul 16, 2013 14:33:15 GMT -8
I don't see the iWatch having health monitoring capabilities. It's not as useful as you all may think. Doc - I've seen this company being promoted on some of the business channels. Maybe an integrated "scanadu" on the iWatch might be interesting. (scanadu link: www.scanadu.com/ )
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Post by Deleted on Jul 16, 2013 14:56:48 GMT -8
I've worked in the industry for 10 years and it's amazing how far behind it is...also how expensive the software is because of all the customization. Exactly - in this product category, you are never "Done". It is a total frikken nightmare of an industry. The profession is in the dark ages with patient records/billing practices. The irony is that doctors think they're tech AND financial savvy and my experience is quite the opposite.
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Post by The Big Toe on Jul 16, 2013 15:02:00 GMT -8
Meanwhile our friends over at Digitimes have the usual rumours about manufacturing delays to the next iPhone iteration. What is more interesting is the reported inclusion of fingerprint recognition chips in the 5s. www.digitimes.com/news/a20130716PD206.htmliphone 3gs, s = speed iphone 4s, s = siri Could the "s" for the iphone 5s stand for "security"? Secure information, secure payments...
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Post by rickag on Jul 16, 2013 15:26:24 GMT -8
tech.fortune.cnn.com/2013/07/16/apple-russia-iphone-nyet/I think the following things are very likely related: 1. Apples lack of distribution by Russian carriers 2. Russia’s absence of phone subsidies (they are illegal there) 3. Apple recently opening its own online retail store in Russia 4. The rumoured launch of a new cheap iPhone very soon, which is well suited to unsubsidised markets. We are always talking about china mobile & NTT Docomo carrier deals as drivers for iPhone growth, but launching a new phone that is much better suited to unsubsidised markets like the 180 million fairly affluent users in Russia (and the 2 billion less affluent in Brazil, India & China) will likely be a way bigger driver for iPhone growth. It really only just hit me how much more attractive a new lower cost iPhone is going to be in these markets vs the premium android handsets. I’m very excited I totally agree, but don't know what if any way carriers can block the usage of iPhones and the ecosystem that makes iPhones attractive.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 16, 2013 15:49:18 GMT -8
Burgess +1 Why isn't anyone else waking up to this. A $329 iPhone is a game changer. But an $349, $379, $399 iPhone? Fuggedaboutit! (Oh, and Apple is Doomed(tm).) I'm quite sure a CheapPhone, which IMHO looks fairly likely, will be more expensive than many are hoping for, but there's more than one way sell/price a smartphone, as India has shown.
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Post by nagrani on Jul 16, 2013 15:53:15 GMT -8
Why do you guys think Tim Cook mentioned in the recent retail summit that Apple will take on more of a share of iPhone sales?
How do you think the concept of price elasticity will play in terms of the demand curve for a much cheaper iPhone that can be purchased without a contract? How does this play in Countries like India and Russia?
Instead of an iPod touch - more teenagers will be an iPhone.
Facetime voice over cellular without the need for wifi is a game changer for those wanting to make long distance calls.
I'm starting to get excited about the new prospects for apple this call.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 16, 2013 16:31:03 GMT -8
Burgess +1 Why isn't anyone else waking up to this. A $329 iPhone is a game changer. But an $349, $379, $399 iPhone? Fuggedaboutit! (Oh, and Apple is Doomed(tm).) I'm quite sure a CheapPhone, which IMHO looks fairly likely, will be more expensive than many are hoping for, but there's more than one way sell/price a smartphone, as India has shown. New CheapPhone at $399 I think will be a great price compared to $500-$600 premium android handsets. If its any cheaper? Gravy!
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 16, 2013 16:36:33 GMT -8
But an $349, $379, $399 iPhone? Fuggedaboutit! (Oh, and Apple is Doomed(tm).) I'm quite sure a CheapPhone, which IMHO looks fairly likely, will be more expensive than many are hoping for, but there's more than one way sell/price a smartphone, as India has shown. New CheapPhone at $399 I think will be a great price compared to $500-$600 premium android handsets. If its any cheaper? Gravy! Agree. For some reason I have had 349 bucks stuck in my head for weeks. Just sounds right.
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Post by nagrani on Jul 16, 2013 17:04:22 GMT -8
Go on ebay and search for new unlocked iPhone and sort by auctions ending soonest. See how many bids and the prices 3GS and 4's are going for. Unreal.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 16, 2013 17:40:32 GMT -8
Go on ebay and search for new unlocked iPhone and sort by auctions ending soonest. See how many bids and the prices 3GS and 4's are going for. Unreal. Ha, I'm looking at all the $345 bids for 16gig models. I knew I got that $349 figure somewhere....
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 16, 2013 18:28:14 GMT -8
Unlocked iPhones in NEW condition will get market price or maybe better. I mean iPhone 4 sells for $400-450.
But how well will that play in other markets, I wonder?
Again, though, I think the question is does one have to think of a $350, $400, even $450 phone "in those terms"? Tim Cook years ago mentioned thinking of creative ways of addressing the prepaid market. Getting a compelling product for whatever the market segment is Step One. The rest is probably a bunch easier. You might have the ASP or "list price", but the same way entry-level new iPhones look like $199 to most in the US (despite having a "true price" of $649), _something_ can be done to address that list price if necessary.
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