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Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2013 8:45:37 GMT -8
If iPad sales hit consensus we could get a 25¢ upside surprise to my EPS projection (currently $7.75). That would bode very well for sentiment. Now I'm reading that Katy Huberty is calling for significantly higher iPhone sales than consensus. Earnings is so much fun. : )
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Post by nagrani on Jul 17, 2013 8:49:02 GMT -8
RE: Tesla. Possible. I think elon likes the apple balance sheet and could do some damage with apple and there model. Eddie is on the board of Ferrari and Phil just started following tesla on twitter (last week).
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Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2013 8:58:23 GMT -8
Mostly agreed, but sometimes game changing software (eliminating the need for passwords, secure mobile payments) requires implementation of hardware (fingerprint scanner) to make it possible. True enough, but still it isn't the hardware the user is going to lust for, its the software and what it does that will create must have sentiment. Exactly, Apple must focus on the software, because that's where they can differentiate from Android/Samsung. Samsung can buy the same camera to put in their Smartphone and will be able to get just as good if not better processors. The key is software and services like iRadio. Apple needs to use their massive cash hoard as a way to crush opposition by buying companies or distribution agreements with media companies that companies like HTC and Sony can't afford to do.
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Post by macglenn on Jul 17, 2013 8:58:33 GMT -8
LiquidMetal is up 70% on the day.
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Post by sponge on Jul 17, 2013 9:06:34 GMT -8
Apple builds products to improve people's lives.
They are trying to improve driving by entering into cars by iOS.
If the time comes where Apple can only go so far with that strategy I can see them buying a car company. Tesla may do the trick, but they need to survive in the next 10 years. Lets see what happens in 2023 with Apple as they may be ready for that move.
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Post by sponge on Jul 17, 2013 9:07:58 GMT -8
LiquidMetal is up 70% on the day. That's the future. Apple can kill Samsung with new amazing new hardware from liquid metal.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2013 9:11:31 GMT -8
Apple builds products to improve people's lives. They are trying to improve driving by entering into cars by iOS. If the time comes where Apple can only go so far with that strategy I can see them buying a car company. Tesla may do the trick, but they need to survive in the next 10 years. Lets see what happens in 2023 with Apple as they may be ready for that move. Who cares about 2023? No one (even Tim Cook) has any idea what Apple will be doing in 2023. If you're investing in a Tech Company, you should care about the next 2 or 3 years, because that's the only timeframe that you can reasonably predict success or failure. 5 years ago Blackberry was ruling the World, now they're being destroyed. If (I'm not saying it will happen) Microsoft or Amazon comes out with an elite Smartphone that makes a gigantic leap forward in Smartphones, it's possible Apple could be in the same spot as Blackberry in 5 years. Of course I'm not saying this will happen, as an AAPL investor I hope it doesn't, but to try and predict any Tech Company and what they're doing in 10 years is just a waste of time.
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Post by redinaustin on Jul 17, 2013 9:44:56 GMT -8
If you thought we were rough on CNBC... BillMoyersHQ: Watch @senwarren school this CNBC reporter on #glass-steagall and banking history t.co/XKNSJMF3nI via @joshtpm
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Post by redinaustin on Jul 17, 2013 9:54:53 GMT -8
I was in a TESLA gallery last week. It's called a gallery because TESLA cannot sell, price, or offer test drives in Texas (a subject for the Dungeon). Very Apple Store like - except they have 4 comfortable chairs and a table - a conversation pit!!! Somehow our 15 min. turned into 2 hrs. Bought my brother a hat - iPad with square was used for the sale. The employees were exceptional and everyone in the gallery was smiling the whole time.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2013 10:01:04 GMT -8
If you thought we were rough on CNBC... BillMoyersHQ: Watch @senwarren school this CNBC reporter on #glass-steagall and banking history t.co/XKNSJMF3nI via @joshtpm Warren is absolutely correct. Congressional INTERVENTION since 1980 has led to every banking crisis we've had since then. Glass-Steagall worked.
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Post by dreamRaj on Jul 17, 2013 10:09:00 GMT -8
Miss those times when we used to have a big run up before earnings.
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Post by mace on Jul 17, 2013 10:12:48 GMT -8
Don't buy low, buy high e.g. Don't buy TSLA for $20, buy it for $118. Betting it would go to $2,000. This is called momentum trading. The key is to bet against the bearish divergence in the daily chart.
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Post by tuffett on Jul 17, 2013 10:35:04 GMT -8
Reason for LQMT popping... Patent reveals Apple's process for mass producing Liquidmetal alloy... goo.gl/rfxQzBack of the napkin calculation shows potential production for 2 billion phones per year (no yield losses, etc.) Clearly Apple is still heavily involved in this. I don't see why they wouldn't want to buy the company instead of just having a licensing agreement (that is only through 2014...fast approaching). It would be such a shame for them to put all this work in only to have it commoditized by other licensees. Market cap is 47M...Apple wouldn't even notice it gone.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2013 10:47:58 GMT -8
Miss those times when we used to have a big run up before earnings. Miss those times when we used to crush expectations.
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Post by fas550 on Jul 17, 2013 11:05:58 GMT -8
Apple builds products to improve people's lives. They are trying to improve driving by entering into cars by iOS. If the time comes where Apple can only go so far with that strategy I can see them buying a car company. Tesla may do the trick, but they need to survive in the next 10 years. Lets see what happens in 2023 with Apple as they may be ready for that move. 2023? You crack me up with your crystal ball. Okay I'll bite. We'll all meet back here on 2023 and see where tech is. :-). This is nothing if entertaining :-)
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 17, 2013 11:06:52 GMT -8
Redler a minute ago.... @reddogt3live: $aapl nice negative to positive move- take some - stay with some- Me: I want my 10:15 spike! Serious question: Have you ever profited from Redler's stuff? Oh, God no...I don't trade on this stuff. But he moves others to trade so I want to be aware of it...
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Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2013 11:23:04 GMT -8
Don't buy low, buy high e.g. Don't buy TSLA for $20, buy it for $118. Betting it would go to $2,000. This is called momentum trading. The key is to bet against the bearish divergence in the daily chart. I wouldn't go near TSLA. Reports are that BMW and Toyota are a year away from competing head on with Tesla, which has sparse distribution and no patentable technology to protect it. The advantages of the majors are too many to list here. Tesla is a very good product, but I think it's going to get killed by the advantages of scale only the majors have.
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Post by terps530 on Jul 17, 2013 11:25:29 GMT -8
I would love us to move into 433 range and hold there for a while.....with some volume. Maybe today... I really don't expect trading volume until after earnings/guidance and more is known about Apple's future. FQ4/2013 is going to be really important to FQ1/2014 prospects. For the past 2 years FQ1 grew ~49% over FQ4. FQ1/2011 QoQ growth 31.45% FQ1/2012 QoQ growth 63.89% FQ1/2013 QoQ growth 51.57% Average 3 year QoQ growth rate 48.97%. I'm modeling FQ4 Revenue at $40.5 Billion, and FQ1 Revenue at $64.3 Billion, a 58% QoQ increase. based on this if we come in 15-20% less than your #'s like usual, we get 32.4b-34.4b revenues. This would be possibly within or slightly lower than aapl's range of 33.5b-35.5b. Any chance you can inflate your #'s some more so missing by 20% still puts us in good shape?
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Post by nagrani on Jul 17, 2013 11:28:42 GMT -8
If apple is going to be selling this quarter a new iPhone (earlier than last year) plus the Lower cost iPhone - I feel pretty good about a surprise in guidance.
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Post by sponge on Jul 17, 2013 11:37:35 GMT -8
Apple builds products to improve people's lives. They are trying to improve driving by entering into cars by iOS. If the time comes where Apple can only go so far with that strategy I can see them buying a car company. Tesla may do the trick, but they need to survive in the next 10 years. Lets see what happens in 2023 with Apple as they may be ready for that move. Who cares about 2023? No one (even Tim Cook) has any idea what Apple will be doing in 2023. If you're investing in a Tech Company, you should care about the next 2 or 3 years, because that's the only timeframe that you can reasonably predict success or failure. 5 years ago Blackberry was ruling the World, now they're being destroyed. If (I'm not saying it will happen) Microsoft or Amazon comes out with an elite Smartphone that makes a gigantic leap forward in Smartphones, it's possible Apple could be in the same spot as Blackberry in 5 years. Of course I'm not saying this will happen, as an AAPL investor I hope it doesn't, but to try and predict any Tech Company and what they're doing in 10 years is just a waste of time. I could not disagree more. Back in 2005 we were debating Apples' future at AFB and agreed that it is bright. It's sales growth and market penetration went beyond what we ever imagined. No iPhone or iPad were even talked about. The iPod and Apple Stores opened Apple to the world like never before. They are not like Blackberry nor do they make stupid moves like MS or Amazon. It OK to look decades into the future, but when most hold options it becomes a non issue.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2013 11:50:07 GMT -8
Who cares about 2023? No one (even Tim Cook) has any idea what Apple will be doing in 2023. If you're investing in a Tech Company, you should care about the next 2 or 3 years, because that's the only timeframe that you can reasonably predict success or failure. 5 years ago Blackberry was ruling the World, now they're being destroyed. If (I'm not saying it will happen) Microsoft or Amazon comes out with an elite Smartphone that makes a gigantic leap forward in Smartphones, it's possible Apple could be in the same spot as Blackberry in 5 years. Of course I'm not saying this will happen, as an AAPL investor I hope it doesn't, but to try and predict any Tech Company and what they're doing in 10 years is just a waste of time. I could not disagree more. Back in 2005 we were debating Apples' future at AFB and agreed that it is bright. It's sales growth and market penetration went beyond what we ever imagined. No iPhone or iPad were even talked about. The iPod and Apple Stores opened Apple to the world like never before. They are not like Blackberry nor do they make stupid moves like MS or Amazon. It OK to look decades into the future, but when most hold options it becomes a non issue. Find me a Tech Company that had a bright future 20 years ago and I bet the chances are 90%+ that the company from 20 years ago is bankrupt or has already been bought out. The life as a Tech Company is only as good as it's latest innovations...if Apple stops innovating, Apple will quickly be replaced. I'm not saying it will happen, personally I don't think it will, but to ignore history is foolish. Apple doesn't make stupid moves? The company was almost bankrupt once. Even the smartest company can make stupid moves, just like the smartest people on earth can make poor decisions. No company or person is perfect. Didn't Apple fire Steve Jobs?? How smart of a move was that?
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Post by tuffett on Jul 17, 2013 11:50:28 GMT -8
Who cares about 2023? No one (even Tim Cook) has any idea what Apple will be doing in 2023. If you're investing in a Tech Company, you should care about the next 2 or 3 years, because that's the only timeframe that you can reasonably predict success or failure. 5 years ago Blackberry was ruling the World, now they're being destroyed. If (I'm not saying it will happen) Microsoft or Amazon comes out with an elite Smartphone that makes a gigantic leap forward in Smartphones, it's possible Apple could be in the same spot as Blackberry in 5 years. Of course I'm not saying this will happen, as an AAPL investor I hope it doesn't, but to try and predict any Tech Company and what they're doing in 10 years is just a waste of time. I could not disagree more. Back in 2005 we were debating Apples' future at AFB and agreed that it is bright. It's sales growth and market penetration went beyond what we ever imagined. No iPhone or iPad were even talked about. The iPod and Apple Stores opened Apple to the world like never before. They are not like Blackberry nor do they make stupid moves like MS or Amazon. It OK to look decades into the future, but when most hold options it becomes a non issue. Uh...you just proved the point he was trying to make.
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Post by nagrani on Jul 17, 2013 11:58:17 GMT -8
If apple is going to be selling this quarter a new iPhone (earlier than last year) plus the Lower cost iPhone - I feel pretty good about a surprise in guidance.
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Post by sponge on Jul 17, 2013 12:03:50 GMT -8
I could not disagree more. Back in 2005 we were debating Apples' future at AFB and agreed that it is bright. It's sales growth and market penetration went beyond what we ever imagined. No iPhone or iPad were even talked about. The iPod and Apple Stores opened Apple to the world like never before. They are not like Blackberry nor do they make stupid moves like MS or Amazon. It OK to look decades into the future, but when most hold options it becomes a non issue. Uh...you just proved the point he was trying to make. No he did not. If you understand a company it is easy to look into a bright future.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 17, 2013 12:05:25 GMT -8
I could not disagree more. Back in 2005 we were debating Apples' future at AFB and agreed that it is bright. It's sales growth and market penetration went beyond what we ever imagined. No iPhone or iPad were even talked about. The iPod and Apple Stores opened Apple to the world like never before. They are not like Blackberry nor do they make stupid moves like MS or Amazon. It OK to look decades into the future, but when most hold options it becomes a non issue. Find me a Tech Company that had a bright future 20 years ago and I bet the chances are 90%+ that the company from 20 years ago is bankrupt or has already been bought out. The life as a Tech Company is only as good as it's latest innovations...if Apple stops innovating, Apple will quickly be replaced. I'm not saying it will happen, personally I don't think it will, but to ignore history is foolish. Apple doesn't make stupid moves? The company was almost bankrupt once. Even the smartest company can make stupid moves, just like the smartest people on earth can make poor decisions. No company or person is perfect. Didn't Apple fire Steve Jobs?? How smart of a move was that? The only good example of a tech company from 20 years ago that is still thriving is IBM. But they moved from hardware to services and nurtured their entrenched base beautifully. An argument could be made that the Apple ecosystem might emulate this pattern down the road.... But where are DEC, Burroughs, Wang, Lotus of yesteryear?
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 17, 2013 12:07:16 GMT -8
Hmmmm. this 430 price seems somehow where we are supposed to be...wonder if it holds here until Friday?
Pain Merchants, what say you?
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Post by sponge on Jul 17, 2013 12:20:20 GMT -8
I said we will close well above 431 by end of Friday. I stand by that.
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Post by sponge on Jul 17, 2013 12:32:26 GMT -8
Good companies that technology dependent are GE, IBM, and BA.
If you invested $5000 in BA in 1965 you would have 9433 shares today split and dividend adjusted. Your investment would be worth $990,000 if you did not invest one more dime and you would get a dividend of $19K every year. The kids of the parents who bought in 1965 are glad their parents had faith in this technology company.
I see aapl as the IBM or Boeing of the 1950s and 1960s. My kids will thank me in 45 years.
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Post by tuffett on Jul 17, 2013 12:38:45 GMT -8
Good companies that technology dependent are GE, IBM, and BA. If you invested $5000 in BA in 1965 you would have 9433 shares today split and dividend adjusted. Your investment would be worth $990,000 if you did not invest one more dime and you would get a dividend of $19K every year. The kids of the parents who bought in 1965 are glad their parents had faith in this technology company. I see aapl as the IBM or Boeing of the 1950s and 1960s. My kids will thank me in 45 years. AAPL at $12 - yes. AAPL at $400 - not a chance. That kind of growth from where we are now is just not going to happen. Send your kids my condolences. Not saying it isn't a good investment but please don't expect BA-like returns from 1950.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2013 12:40:53 GMT -8
Good companies that technology dependent are GE, IBM, and BA. If you invested $5000 in BA in 1965 you would have 9433 shares today split and dividend adjusted. Your investment would be worth $990,000 if you did not invest one more dime and you would get a dividend of $19K every year. The kids of the parents who bought in 1965 are glad their parents had faith in this technology company. I see aapl as the IBM or Boeing of the 1950s and 1960s. My kids will thank me in 45 years. Please consider your kids and just buy index funds without margin...you'll probably get much better returns than selling low and buying high on AAPL
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