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Post by sponge on Jul 17, 2013 13:00:21 GMT -8
The only money I have lost was buying options. When aapl gets to $800 I will have 900% return from 2009.
I obviously see aapl very differently then you two.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2013 13:01:21 GMT -8
I could not disagree more. Back in 2005 we were debating Apples' future at AFB and agreed that it is bright. It's sales growth and market penetration went beyond what we ever imagined. No iPhone or iPad were even talked about. The iPod and Apple Stores opened Apple to the world like never before. They are not like Blackberry nor do they make stupid moves like MS or Amazon. It OK to look decades into the future, but when most hold options it becomes a non issue. Find me a Tech Company that had a bright future 20 years ago and I bet the chances are 90%+ that the company from 20 years ago is bankrupt or has already been bought out. The life as a Tech Company is only as good as it's latest innovations...if Apple stops innovating, Apple will quickly be replaced. I'm not saying it will happen, personally I don't think it will, but to ignore history is foolish. Apple doesn't make stupid moves? The company was almost bankrupt once. Even the smartest company can make stupid moves, just like the smartest people on earth can make poor decisions. No company or person is perfect. Didn't Apple fire Steve Jobs?? How smart of a move was that? 20 years ago I would have said that the biggest tech companies with a bright future were Microsoft & Intel, being the core components of the rapidly expanding PC industry. I would have done pretty well compared to the overall markets if I had bought either of those stocks then. If you simply bought and held for last 20 years Microsoft went from about $2 to $35.70 today, and intel went from around $3 to $24 today. The top 5 leading computer vendors by marketshare in the mid 1990s were: Compaq, IBM, Packard bell, Apple, HP. Obviously if you had bought and held those 5 companies until today, you would obviously have had a massive return from Apple alone, but also would have achieved big returns from IBM and the merged Compaq/HP (and after those millions of dollars in profit you wouldn't care about Packard Bell.) So looking at today, if you were going to simply buy and hold the top companies in fast growing tech industries and hold them for twenty years, what would you buy? If I had to say today what companies have a bright future, I would pick companies that are the current leaders of the present rapidly expanding industries. On that basis I would take all emotion out of my choices and simply pick companies that are leading in smartphones, tablets & cloud services. Apple would be the first company I would choose, being dominant in hardware, software & Cloud services/stores. Harder to pick others, but if you were looking back from 2033 at 2013 unemotionally, and simply look at 2013 figures in terms of smartphones, tablets & cloud services (including component and software suppliers) it would obviously be hard to go past Samsung, Google, Amazon, Arm holdings. I guess that's a safe basket of stocks, in that the failure of one or two of those companies likely means huge success for some of the other companies listed. I would probably expand that list a little to include Intel, Qualcomm, and maybe some leading Chinese vendors like Huawei, ZTE & TSMC.
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Post by fas550 on Jul 17, 2013 13:03:24 GMT -8
Good companies that technology dependent are GE, IBM, and BA. If you invested $5000 in BA in 1965 you would have 9433 shares today split and dividend adjusted. Your investment would be worth $990,000 if you did not invest one more dime and you would get a dividend of $19K every year. The kids of the parents who bought in 1965 are glad their parents had faith in this technology company. I see aapl as the IBM or Boeing of the 1950s and 1960s. My kids will thank me in 45 years. Lets hope so but then hope is not a strategy. I've worked in tech over 30 years. The dumbest question I hear is, "What's going to happen in the next 5 years?" Truth is no one knows. For as many tech companies that are left for 20 years ago there are probably more than a thousand that no longer exist or certainly are not as big and influential they were at the time. Just a very few off the top of my head: Palm, Amdahl, Gateway, Northgate, Insight, DEC, SGI, Cray, Newbridge, Bay, 3Com, a host of other PC companies I've forgotten the name of. Most that are still around became commodity pushers. Most tech companies falter because they naturally grow, growth means inability to adapt due to cumbersome internal procedures. Eventually they just end up playing catch up. IBM survives because they changed their entire business model.
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Post by tuffett on Jul 17, 2013 13:05:54 GMT -8
The only money I have lost was buying options. When aapl gets to $800 I will have 900% return from 2009. I obviously see aapl very differently then you two. As I've already explained to you, since you keep buying options and playing with margin, there is no way to calculate how much you will make (or lose). Right now, even as Apple creeps up it seems you aren't doing so well and still suffer from margin calls due your penchant for buying on rallies and getting margin called on dips. I expect this continue because nothing has shown otherwise. You'll need to smarten up if you want that 900% return. I'd be up big if I didn't count my losses...
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Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2013 13:07:11 GMT -8
The only money I have lost was buying options. When aapl gets to $800 I will have 900% return from 2009. I obviously see aapl very differently then you two. But you expect Boeing type growth of 200 times...which would require AAPL to get to $86,000. I can't even fathom what Apple's Market Cap would be here, but I imagine it would probably be larger than the GDP of almost every country and larger than every single company on earth today.
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Post by sponge on Jul 17, 2013 13:19:52 GMT -8
The only money I have lost was buying options. When aapl gets to $800 I will have 900% return from 2009. I obviously see aapl very differently then you two. But you expect Boeing type growth of 200 times...which would require AAPL to get to $86,000. I can't even fathom what Apple's Market Cap would be here, but I imagine it would probably be larger than the GDP of almost every country and larger than every single company on earth today. That is not what I meant or expect. The point I was making is that those who understand the strength of a company can be rewarded if they hold for 50 years. Big wealth takes two to three generations to create. Apple is unique and few understand this. They can not be compared to other leading companies that disappeared over the last 30 years. I see them getting into many industries simply because they have a loyal and affluent customer base that gets bigger every year.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2013 13:26:36 GMT -8
Find me a Tech Company that had a bright future 20 years ago and I bet the chances are 90%+ that the company from 20 years ago is bankrupt or has already been bought out. The life as a Tech Company is only as good as it's latest innovations...if Apple stops innovating, Apple will quickly be replaced. I'm not saying it will happen, personally I don't think it will, but to ignore history is foolish. Apple doesn't make stupid moves? The company was almost bankrupt once. Even the smartest company can make stupid moves, just like the smartest people on earth can make poor decisions. No company or person is perfect. Didn't Apple fire Steve Jobs?? How smart of a move was that? 20 years ago I would have said that the biggest tech companies with a bright future were Microsoft & Intel, being the core components of the rapidly expanding PC industry. I would have done pretty well compared to the overall markets if I had bought either of those stocks then. If you simply bought and held for last 20 years Microsoft went from about $2 to $35.70 today, and intel went from around $3 to $24 today. The top 5 leading computer vendors by marketshare in the mid 1990s were: Compaq, IBM, Packard bell, Apple, HP. Obviously if you had bought and held those 5 companies until today, you would obviously have had a massive return from Apple alone, but also would have achieved big returns from IBM and the merged Compaq/HP (and after those millions of dollars in profit you wouldn't care about Packard Bell.) So looking at today, if you were going to simply buy and hold the top companies in fast growing tech industries and hold them for twenty years, what would you buy? If I had to say today what companies have a bright future, I would pick companies that are the current leaders of the present rapidly expanding industries. On that basis I would take all emotion out of my choices and simply pick companies that are leading in smartphones, tablets & cloud services. Apple would be the first company I would choose, being dominant in hardware, software & Cloud services/stores. Harder to pick others, but if you were looking back from 2033 at 2013 unemotionally, and simply look at 2013 figures in terms of smartphones, tablets & cloud services (including component and software suppliers) it would obviously be hard to go past Samsung, Google, Amazon, Arm holdings. I guess that's a safe basket of stocks, in that the failure of one or two of those companies likely means huge success for some of the other companies listed. I would probably expand that list a little to include Intel, Qualcomm, and maybe some leading Chinese vendors like Huawei, ZTE & TSMC. What if you saw the power of the internet back in 1995 and put your money into the dominant player, Netscape. There are hundreds of other powerful tech growth stocks from the 90's that stopped innovating and are nowhere to be found today. Also, if you're going to pick 5 Mega Caps like Apple, Intel, Google, Amazon and Samsung I would imagine you're going to underperform over the next 20 years. Why? Because traditionally small caps outperform large caps. If you target only large caps, you'll have less risk, but with less risk also comes less reward. Not saying you'll have bad returns investing in just those 5 names over the next 20 years, but I wouldn't be surprised if at least one is bankrupt and/or bought out.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2013 13:27:18 GMT -8
Reason for LQMT popping... Patent reveals Apple's process for mass producing Liquidmetal alloy... goo.gl/rfxQzBack of the napkin calculation shows potential production for 2 billion phones per year (no yield losses, etc.) Clearly Apple is still heavily involved in this. I don't see why they wouldn't want to buy the company instead of just having a licensing agreement (that is only through 2014...fast approaching). It would be such a shame for them to put all this work in only to have it commoditized by other licensees. Market cap is 47M...Apple wouldn't even notice it gone. Apple's license agreement with LQMT is for exclusive use of the technology in the consumer electronics sector through the end of 2014. Anything that Apple develops in the interim belongs to Apple. This was a smart agreement . The license cost way less than buying the company (at that time), freeing cash for R&D. Until the latest patent, the technology was really unusable for high production needs. Now it is usable, and the patent is jointly owned by Apple and LQMT. Unless, and until, Apple agrees, the product derived from the patent can only be licensed to others, with Apple's permission. LQMT will receive license fees from Apple, for their ownership interests in the patent, which will still be less than buying the company.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2013 13:34:08 GMT -8
But you expect Boeing type growth of 200 times...which would require AAPL to get to $86,000. I can't even fathom what Apple's Market Cap would be here, but I imagine it would probably be larger than the GDP of almost every country and larger than every single company on earth today. That is not what I meant or expect. The point I was making is that those who understand the strength of a company can be rewarded if they hold for 50 years. Big wealth takes two to three generations to create. Apple is unique and few understand this. They can not be compared to other leading companies that disappeared over the last 30 years. I see them getting into many industries simply because they have a loyal and affluent customer base that gets bigger every year. Loyalty is overstated...Apple has loyalty today because they make the best products. If that fails to continue, people will leave. Blackberry had a ton of "Crackberry" loyalists as well, look how that turned out. As I've been saying, as long as Apple continues to make the best products, they'll continue to have success...but no one can predict 10 years+ down the road with any Tech Company. For example, lots of people are loyal to car companies like Ford for example. If I had great experiences with Ford over the past 30 years but then the last 2 vehicles I bought were lemons and Toyota was making better vehicles, you can bet that I'd look at changing.
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Post by rob_london on Jul 17, 2013 13:35:13 GMT -8
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Post by tuffett on Jul 17, 2013 13:36:45 GMT -8
Thanks for the clarification. You're right that Apple would have to agree but I'm always wary of the patent system now. Change a few little things, issue a new patent without Apple's involvement and license it to everyone - crazier things have happened. If the exclusivity agreement is through the end of next year, and we assume the upcoming 5S/6 will not make use of it, that leaves only one iPhone generation that can enjoy exclusive use of the technology. That's assuming it's even ready by then.
I still see buying the company out as a much easier solution, and one that may even end up being less costly over the long run (licensing fees for hundreds of millions (maybe billions?) of products have got to add up). It's not like Apple is in capital preservation mode - if they see a real future with liquid metal I would prefer they own it all for what little cost it takes. The competitive advantage is worth a couple of hundred million.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2013 13:40:51 GMT -8
based on this if we come in 15-20% less than your #'s like usual, we get 32.4b-34.4b revenues. This would be possibly within or slightly lower than aapl's range of 33.5b-35.5b. Any chance you can inflate your #'s some more so missing by 20% still puts us in good shape? Thank you for recognizing that forecasts can be predictive. The misses of mine that you described as off by 15% to 20% occurred in July 2012, October 2012 and January 2013. In each of those cases I modeled Apple's Revenue to be 20% higher than Guidance, a factor that was fairly accurate for several years. That factor, with PO's new guidance metric is now 5% to 6% higher than Guidance. True, Apple has not Guided for the September or December quarters as yet. The fact remains however, that history can and does give us actionable clues as to future performance. If you've been following P.E.D. you will note that my July estimates are pretty much middle of the pack (right around consensus). That isn't due to an attempt on my part to be more conservative, it comes from recognizing changes in historical patterns in guidance and product growth rates. Thanks again for trying.
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Post by sponge on Jul 17, 2013 13:43:31 GMT -8
That is not what I meant or expect. The point I was making is that those who understand the strength of a company can be rewarded if they hold for 50 years. Big wealth takes two to three generations to create. Apple is unique and few understand this. They can not be compared to other leading companies that disappeared over the last 30 years. I see them getting into many industries simply because they have a loyal and affluent customer base that gets bigger every year. Loyalty is overstated...Apple has loyalty today because they make the best products. If that fails to continue, people will leave. Blackberry had a ton of "Crackberry" loyalists as well, look how that turned out. As I've been saying, as long as Apple continues to make the best products, they'll continue to have success...but no one can predict 10 years+ down the road with any Tech Company. For example, lots of people are loyal to car companies like Ford for example. If I had great experiences with Ford over the past 30 years but then the last 2 vehicles I bought were lemons and Toyota was making better vehicles, you can bet that I'd look at changing. I agree. I expect Apple to only create great products now and in the future. It is in their DNA. That's why everyone is copying them.
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Post by Lstream on Jul 17, 2013 13:47:01 GMT -8
But you expect Boeing type growth of 200 times...which would require AAPL to get to $86,000. I can't even fathom what Apple's Market Cap would be here, but I imagine it would probably be larger than the GDP of almost every country and larger than every single company on earth today. That is not what I meant or expect. The point I was making is that those who understand the strength of a company can be rewarded if they hold for 50 years. Big wealth takes two to three generations to create. Apple is unique and few understand this. They can not be compared to other leading companies that disappeared over the last 30 years. I see them getting into many industries simply because they have a loyal and affluent customer base that gets bigger every year. I think it is pretty clear by now that the only person that sees any value in your long term predictions is you. You are wasting your breath trying to convince anyone else that they are of any use whatsoever. Especially to those of us that are actually in the tech business. But I am sure that this will not make one bit of difference to what you post. Never has. Never will.
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Post by ericinaustin on Jul 17, 2013 14:00:42 GMT -8
In regards to iPhone 5S with NFC and fingerprint scanner, when it is announced without those features the stock will tank. However when Apple reports in Jan the world will be surprised how well the 5S sold without those features that few would use anyway for shopping. NFC and fingerprint scanner are hardware issues. As a driver of sales those will be non-issues. The driver will be what iOS 7 can DO, either with Apple produced Apps, or 3rd party Apps (sure to be shown at announcement). We really need to stop focusing on hardware (consumer could care less), and focus on software, which is what TC has been telling us to do. + 10 It's going to be how the software uses the hardware. I think in a year or two my iPhone will replace one more thing in my life, my wallet.
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Post by mace on Jul 17, 2013 14:01:24 GMT -8
Reason for LQMT popping... Patent reveals Apple's process for mass producing Liquidmetal alloy... goo.gl/rfxQzBack of the napkin calculation shows potential production for 2 billion phones per year (no yield losses, etc.) Clearly Apple is still heavily involved in this. I don't see why they wouldn't want to buy the company instead of just having a licensing agreement (that is only through 2014...fast approaching). It would be such a shame for them to put all this work in only to have it commoditized by other licensees. Market cap is 47M...Apple wouldn't even notice it gone. Apple's license agreement with LQMT is for exclusive use of the technology in the consumer electronics sector through the end of 2014. Anything that Apple develops in the interim belongs to Apple. This was a smart agreement . The license cost way less than buying the company (at that time), freeing cash for R&D. Until the latest patent, the technology was really unusable for high production needs. Now it is usable, and the patent is jointly owned by Apple and LQMT. Unless, and until, Apple agrees, the product derived from the patent can only be licensed to others, with Apple's permission. LQMT will receive license fees from Apple, for their ownership interests in the patent, which will still be less than buying the company. What will happen if Samsung or Google made a hostile bid for LQMT?
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Post by sponge on Jul 17, 2013 14:01:30 GMT -8
Lstream
Do you ever listen to yourself? Try not to think too low of anyone or their views and further more try not to think so highly of yourself. You do that and life will be so much happier.
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Post by mace on Jul 17, 2013 14:04:24 GMT -8
Thanks for the clarification. You're right that Apple would have to agree but I'm always wary of the patent system now. Change a few little things, issue a new patent without Apple's involvement and license it to everyone - crazier things have happened. If the exclusivity agreement is through the end of next year, and we assume the upcoming 5S/6 will not make use of it, that leaves only one iPhone generation that can enjoy exclusive use of the technology. That's assuming it's even ready by then. I still see buying the company out as a much easier solution, and one that may even end up being less costly over the long run (licensing fees for hundreds of millions (maybe billions?) of products have got to add up). It's not like Apple is in capital preservation mode - if they see a real future with liquid metal I would prefer they own it all for what little cost it takes. The competitive advantage is worth a couple of hundred million. I was wondering the same question too. Why don't buy out LQMT?
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Post by Lstream on Jul 17, 2013 14:05:42 GMT -8
NFC and fingerprint scanner are hardware issues. As a driver of sales those will be non-issues. The driver will be what iOS 7 can DO, either with Apple produced Apps, or 3rd party Apps (sure to be shown at announcement). We really need to stop focusing on hardware (consumer could care less), and focus on software, which is what TC has been telling us to do. + 10 It's going to be how the software uses the hardware. I think in a year or two my iPhone will replace one more thing in my life, my wallet. I agree on the software sentiment being what is important now. However, universal adoption where you can be assured of completing every financial transaction with an iPhone sounds ambitious to me. Plus what about stuff like your drivers license, car insurance, and ID that takes up space in a wallet now? Or in my case, my fishing license!! How will my fishing license get into my iPhone?
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Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2013 14:13:22 GMT -8
Lets hope so but then hope is not a strategy. I've worked in tech over 30 years. The dumbest question I hear is, "What's going to happen in the next 5 years?" Truth is no one knows. Just think of the carnage Apple has brought to the digital music player industry, the music industry, the mobile handset industry, the mobile app industry, the tablet industry, the software delivery industry, the processor industry, the OS industry, etc, etc. Now think of all those firms Apple has virtually destroyed since 1999, and how different things would be if just one of those firms had a 5 year crystal ball. Forecasting the player list beyond today is a nice pastime, but not for investors. Apple looks secure today, but they are secure only until someone delivers the next breakthrough, and today, we have no idea who that someone is or how close they are.
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Post by Lstream on Jul 17, 2013 14:16:35 GMT -8
Lstream Do you ever listen to yourself? Try not to think too low of anyone or their views and further more try not to think so highly of yourself. You do that and life will be so much happier. I am not the one trying to pass myself off as an expert or guru in topics I know nothing about. Put some actual thought into your damn posts and you wouldn't open yourself up to the criticism. Here is a post you made on another message board on May 12, 2012. You may have a hard time grasping the concept, but people who wish to have an informed discussion get annoyed by always being hijacked with sheer ridiculousness. I am perfectly happy by the way. I just have a low tolerance for continuous streams of pure BS. I don't think I am the only one either. Do you simply not care about having one shred of credibility, or do you see your presence here as pure entertainment for yourself?
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Post by Lstream on Jul 17, 2013 14:18:40 GMT -8
Lets hope so but then hope is not a strategy. I've worked in tech over 30 years. The dumbest question I hear is, "What's going to happen in the next 5 years?" Truth is no one knows. Just think of the carnage Apple has brought to the digital music player industry, the music industry, the mobile handset industry, the mobile app industry, the tablet industry, the software delivery industry, the processor industry, the OS industry, etc, etc. Now think of all those firms Apple has virtually destroyed since 1999, and how different things would be if just one of those firms had a 5 year crystal ball. Forecasting the player list beyond today is a nice pastime, but not for investors. Apple looks secure today, but they are secure only until someone delivers the next breakthrough, and today, we have no idea who that someone is or how close they are. Agreed. Great post. I think Apple is the best tech company in the world right now, but hopefully they are hugely paranoid about being unseated by something or someone they don't see coming.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2013 14:21:57 GMT -8
Uh...you just proved the point he was trying to make. No he did not. If you understand a company it is easy to look into a bright future. Ovi, in 2005 we all thought we understood Apple. None of us envisioned the iPhone as it was released, or the App Store, or the iPad, or any number of very important, but not as glamourous, products (such as iCloud). Where would we be if Google saw the future of handset OSs before Apple did? Luckily they didn't, but they could have. The only real difference between Apple and everybody else, is that Apple doesn't travel the same path as everyone else to product development. Apple 'thinks different'. There is nothing to prevent someone else from doing the same thing.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jul 17, 2013 14:26:43 GMT -8
Redler a minute ago.... @reddogt3live: $aapl nice negative to positive move- take some - stay with some- Me: I want my 10:15 spike! Serious question: Have you ever profited from Redler's stuff? Yes. Well, on the trading concepts (he practices and preaches). I don't follow anyone blindly on any trade. Some of Redler's strengths that he drills home: trendlines, tier system (scaling in and out) and trimming & trailing, Fibonacci levels to measure commitment, reversals (RDR). If you understand those concepts, you can apply them to any chart, any time.
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Post by sponge on Jul 17, 2013 14:33:39 GMT -8
Lstream Do you ever listen to yourself? Try not to think too low of anyone or their views and further more try not to think so highly of yourself. You do that and life will be so much happier. I am not the one trying to pass myself off as an expert or guru in topics I know nothing about. Put some actual thought into your damn posts and you wouldn't open yourself up to the criticism. Here is a post you made on another message board on May 12, 2012. You may have a hard time grasping the concept, but people who wish to have an informed discussion get annoyed by always being hijacked with sheer ridiculousness. I am perfectly happy by the way. I just have a low tolerance for continuous streams of pure BS. I don't think I am the only one either. Do you simply not care about having one shred of credibility, or do you see your presence here as pure entertainment for yourself? I have stated that my view of short term growth has changed. I have no problem admitting I was wrong. I put my money where my mouth was and lost $150k. That is not reason to lose faith in Apple or believe they will do well in the next several decades. You are angry, I can't help you with that.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2013 14:36:09 GMT -8
AAPL at $12 - yes. AAPL at $400 - not a chance. That kind of growth from where we are now is just not going to happen. Send your kids my condolences. Not saying it isn't a good investment but please don't expect BA-like returns from 1950. Agreed. Until 1965, growth in the DOW and the S&P was virtually flat. That's because inflation was virtually flat. But then LBJ tried something that had never been done before...a guns AND butter budget. The resultant deficit spending fueled an inflationary crises not seen before. Nixon tried to bring it under control with wage/price controls, but those only work in wartime conditions. They have never worked in peacetime. That inflationary run wasn't broken until the banking crisis of 1980. The banking crisis of 2008 was caused by the same kind of explosive growth in money supply by Clinton's Community Re-investment Act of 1998 (sponsored by Christopher Dodd and Barney Frank). Appreciation of the DOW and S&P wasn't fueled by increased activity, it was fueled by inflation in money supply. Obama's Healthcare is going to do the same thing all over again (flood an industry with cash). When the next financial crisis occurs the winners will be those that are debt free, with non-deposited, non-currency reserves.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2013 14:46:37 GMT -8
+ 10 It's going to be how the software uses the hardware. I think in a year or two my iPhone will replace one more thing in my life, my wallet. I agree on the software sentiment being what is important now. However, universal adoption where you can be assured of completing every financial transaction with an iPhone sounds ambitious to me. Plus what about stuff like your drivers license, car insurance, and ID that takes up space in a wallet now? Or in my case, my fishing license!! How will my fishing license get into my iPhone? Just about anything can be digitized by the issuer, including driver's licenses and fishing licenses.
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Post by appledoc on Jul 17, 2013 14:52:35 GMT -8
Serious question: Have you ever profited from Redler's stuff? Yes. Well, on the trading concepts (he practices and preaches). I don't follow anyone blindly on any trade. Some of Redler's strengths that he drills home: trendlines, tier system (scaling in and out) and trimming & trailing, Fibonacci levels to measure commitment, reversals (RDR). If you understand those concepts, you can apply them to any chart, any time. Redler is the best. He's honest, tweets valuable information constantly throughout the day and is very good at what he does. His put it in the drawer stocks have been absolute winners too. So it's not just about the short term with him.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2013 14:53:26 GMT -8
Just think of the carnage Apple has brought to the digital music player industry, the music industry, the mobile handset industry, the mobile app industry, the tablet industry, the software delivery industry, the processor industry, the OS industry, etc, etc. Now think of all those firms Apple has virtually destroyed since 1999, and how different things would be if just one of those firms had a 5 year crystal ball. Forecasting the player list beyond today is a nice pastime, but not for investors. Apple looks secure today, but they are secure only until someone delivers the next breakthrough, and today, we have no idea who that someone is or how close they are. Agreed. Great post. I think Apple is the best tech company in the world right now, but hopefully they are hugely paranoid about being unseated by something or someone they don't see coming. Thanks LStream. I think Apple is hugely paranoid, and that explains the incredible secrecy that surrounds everything it does. That's also why I give no credence to "insider" reports about this and that. Apple has fired suppliers in the past for unauthorized leaks. No one wants to be the next on Apple's chopping block.
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Post by sponge on Jul 17, 2013 15:14:34 GMT -8
Apple revenue grew 44.6% in 2012. This year it will come down to 12.5% growth. I expected at least 50% but did not envision that they could not supply enough iPhones 5 in the first two quarters of intro (sending 8 million back), not have enough iPad minis, and get affected as much by Samsung and the Galaxy phones. I still think they can grow 20% in revenue in 2014.
EPS was a bigger issue given margin compression.
It's all a minor 24 month hiccup on a long road of innovation and solid growth. I will continue to buy on margin as long as interest is less then stock growth.
And just to be clear the technology is not yet good enough for fingerprint scanners or anything liquid metal. Pay by phone is still a few years away.
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