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Post by rob_london on Jul 18, 2013 4:56:14 GMT -8
Business Insider just tweeted this but I have not verified it: iPhone activations at $VZ grew 44% in Q2 up from 25% in Q1.Actually - correction - it was "re-tweeted by BI" but the person who made the statement was Walter Piecyk (wireless analyst at BTIG)> Same source: "$ VZ iPhone acts of 3.9 mil beat our est of 3.5 mil as $AAPL smartphone share remained over 50%." If my memory serves me correctly, that's now two quarters running that Walter Piecyk of BTIG has tweeted the actual iPhone activation numbers about 20 minutes before the conference call.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 18, 2013 4:56:45 GMT -8
True.
But even 3.8 >> my most optimistic projections.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 18, 2013 4:59:39 GMT -8
Yes sir!.....3.9 million Verizon plus 900,000 T-Mobile. Not bad at all so far... Quibble. 7.5M x 51% = 3.825 Quibble me this, Batman.....(sorry...I'm actually happy today!).
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Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2013 5:00:38 GMT -8
I'm not often one to rain on a parade I helped start, but I guess it should be noted that this is the first year Verizon has had a free iPhone available (last year the iPhone 3GS was GSM only), so its possible Verizons percentage rise is going to be a bit larger than typical for other carriers this quarter.
At the very least I think this really helps lower the chances of a miss on the streets iPhone expectations.
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Post by nagrani on Jul 18, 2013 5:00:43 GMT -8
Verizon CEO in an open letter to all employees: stop pimping them androids. We need to sell these iPhones or else we are going to have to write that MFer Tim a big ass check.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2013 5:02:47 GMT -8
Night all, hopefully I wake up to a green close.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 18, 2013 5:02:54 GMT -8
Aw dammit Nagrani. Thanks for reminding us about the negative side of this news. Verizon being forced to stop overselling Android so it can "oversell" iPhones instead. ;D
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 18, 2013 5:04:38 GMT -8
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 18, 2013 5:34:24 GMT -8
434.28 out of the blocks...lets stay above 432 all day....
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Post by terps530 on Jul 18, 2013 5:39:43 GMT -8
well that's an awesome VZ number. AT&T gets released same day as aapl, both after market close, and sprint isn't till a week later, so let the speculating begin!
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Post by elmar on Jul 18, 2013 5:39:56 GMT -8
434.28 out of the blocks...lets stay above 432 all day.... To create another gap for iPad to worry about?
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Post by rickag on Jul 18, 2013 5:46:09 GMT -8
Good to see green, but being the beat down pessimist I am, volume still seems weak. Maybe the Verizon numbers will wake up some of the big funds to goose up volume.
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Post by rob_london on Jul 18, 2013 5:49:34 GMT -8
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Post by appledoc on Jul 18, 2013 6:09:22 GMT -8
Needs to close above the 50 and 100 day IMO.
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Post by tuffett on Jul 18, 2013 6:41:45 GMT -8
Strong, strong numbers. If we use Verizon's typical split of global sales (9-13%) that's a total of 30M to 43M. Much likely closer to 30, but this is great news. I've never been concerned about North America though - its the rest of the world that troubles me.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2013 7:04:02 GMT -8
434.28 out of the blocks...lets stay above 432 all day.... To create another gap for iPad to worry about? I'm still waiting for that gap around $700 to fill.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2013 7:24:18 GMT -8
Wouldn't it be nice to actually smash earnings estimates like we used to
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Post by sponge on Jul 18, 2013 7:40:49 GMT -8
Wouldn't it be nice to actually smash earnings estimates like we used to We may smash WS low estimates. Guidance will be more important. The Verizon numbers support the theory that a certain number of folks simply upgrade when contract is due. Given the increase in iPhone share at Verizon, Apple is getting more switchers on that carrier. Very good news indeed.
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Post by moltenfire on Jul 18, 2013 7:54:51 GMT -8
Looks like we're on our way to filling the gap now
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Post by rob_london on Jul 18, 2013 7:59:51 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2013 8:35:47 GMT -8
4K in Apple's future? To address a market suspended in time? Sure, I can go with that. But I'll wait until I get a much better source than that. I'll believe it when Apple announces, and not before. Its a rumor for christ's sake.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2013 8:37:27 GMT -8
Big day for earnings - Verizon, google, Microsoft, Nokia. If Verizon can ship 3.2 million iPhones or more I will be very happy. Anything below 3 million will be a rather average result. Of course anything below last years 2.7 million would be horrible. So how do you feel about 3.9 million?
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Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2013 8:40:00 GMT -8
Verizon reports pre-market open, so Xmas, I mean a data point, actually shows up a bit early this year. Err quarter. Thanks for the heads-up burgess. Doubtful any numbers from Verizon will somehow trump the forces of monthly OpEx, but for those of us more dialed in, they're still really important. Activation compares are a step removed from actual YOY sales growth (which in turn is a step removed from "true" sell-through" comparisons), but that aside, I'd be OK with 2.9-3.0M activations. Anything around 15-20% activation growth (3.1-3.25M) would be really interesting, and unlikely IMHO. So how do you feel about 44%? : )
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Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2013 8:41:23 GMT -8
Nokia reported, smartphone sales up (good for them I guess). US Nokia smartphone sales dropped year over year from 600k down to 500k units. But US sales fell dramatically, and ASP fell 20%. Unit sales came because Nokia was giving them away.
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Post by tuffett on Jul 18, 2013 8:42:28 GMT -8
4K in Apple's future? To address a market suspended in time? Sure, I can go with that. But I'll wait until I get a much better source than that. I'll believe it when Apple announces, and not before. Its a rumor for christ's sake. You can get a pretty good idea of upcoming product without waiting for Apple to officially announce them. Most of us had a good idea of the iPad and iPad Mini, for example. This was largely based on rumours - the evidence starts to mount as they pile up. With Apple's hiring spree of biometric/sensor/low power chip experts along with Tim Cook's comments, I'm 95% certain an iWatch is on the horizon, and don't need to wait for the announcement to believe it. A TV set is not so certain. Something will happen with TV based on Cook's comments, but at this point it's hard to determine if it's only an Apple TV software or a full panel to go along with it.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2013 8:48:12 GMT -8
These strong VZ numbers is another example that when the choice is there Apple is still the best. The competition IMHO in the smartphone game is weak. I have never felt competition was Apples problem it was speed of releases, supply chain and carrier access. The main reason many people around the world don't buy iPhones is they can't afford the phone and availability is limited. I believe the cheap iPhone and some carrier deals will imrpove this issue. Apple's iPhone4 is more well liked than many brand new phones. Just be aware of the potential sell the news scenario. Just based on premarket, Apple looks like it could move around a bit today. Cheap cheap cheap, everyone wants cheap. Cheap has never been a winning long term strategy. Just ask everyone making CHEAP iPhone clones. UNIT SHARE IS NOT THE METRIC THAT DETERMINES WINNERS.
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Post by Lstream on Jul 18, 2013 9:04:11 GMT -8
I have some history with one of the companies mentioned in that article, and asked them if they indeed lost anyone to Apple. The answer is yes, but not that impactful of a person. Nevertheless, at least that one data point in the story has some validity. Interesting that the author picked up on that pretty obscure data point. I am still in wait and see though for all this wearable and iWatch stuff. Apple can and has experimented for years with new stuff before it ever hits the market. So I have no doubt that they are exploring, but who knows what that means re the timing of an actual product.
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Post by tuffett on Jul 18, 2013 9:04:13 GMT -8
These strong VZ numbers is another example that when the choice is there Apple is still the best. The competition IMHO in the smartphone game is weak. I have never felt competition was Apples problem it was speed of releases, supply chain and carrier access. The main reason many people around the world don't buy iPhones is they can't afford the phone and availability is limited. I believe the cheap iPhone and some carrier deals will imrpove this issue. Apple's iPhone4 is more well liked than many brand new phones. Just be aware of the potential sell the news scenario. Just based on premarket, Apple looks like it could move around a bit today. Cheap cheap cheap, everyone wants cheap. Cheap has never been a winning long term strategy. Just ask everyone making CHEAP iPhone clones. UNIT SHARE IS NOT THE METRIC THAT DETERMINES WINNERS.Well, Samsung is certainly winning along with Apple. It's not the cheap phones that are giving them much of the profit, but for whatever reason their strategy of flooding the market with crap along with a few decent top end products is working very well. Verizon net Android additions were up 500,000 QoQ, obviously due to the S4.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2013 9:38:08 GMT -8
Good to see green, but being the beat down pessimist I am, volume still seems weak. Maybe the Verizon numbers will wake up some of the big funds to goose up volume. Guidance, Grasshopper, Guidance.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2013 9:41:09 GMT -8
Strong, strong numbers. If we use Verizon's typical split of global sales (9-13%) that's a total of 30M to 43M. Much likely closer to 30, but this is great news. I've never been concerned about North America though - its the rest of the world that troubles me. I'm in at 27.8 million with EPS at $7.75. 30.0 million increases EPS by 25¢. Everyday I feel more and more confident in my estimates.
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