Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 27, 2012 0:55:24 GMT -8
Green today?
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Post by bribery on Sept 27, 2012 0:58:10 GMT -8
Unless the market rallies, I doubt it. Europe was about to, but it was a false alarm. Spain tanking again.
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Post by Big Al on Sept 27, 2012 1:51:35 GMT -8
There were some underlining factors in 2008. Not saying that anything can't happen here but I think the downside risk is minimal here. Last week was the largest phone launch in history. I think we have a better chance of seeing 700 rather than 600. When the stock is in sentiment mode and the macro factors pose a risk fundamentals do not matter short-term, no matter how large the iPhone launch was. Just look at what happened between April 10th and May 18th. However, I agree with you that we will probably not go below 600. Not because of the great fundamentals (which I personally would accept as a very good argument), but because of our friend the 100-day MA - which is currently at $612.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 27, 2012 1:56:49 GMT -8
I'm in Europe this week and watching closely the vibes in the financial and economic forums ( believe me, they are not one and the same). Apologies to Big Al and our other friends here in Lovey's domain who reside in Europe and live this every day, but to a Yank on a tour of potential investment sites ( infrastructure - the public sector in the EU can't afford what needs to be done - except Germany) so perhaps private capital from the Americas can step in on some level.....at least that is the theory.....the past few days have been unsettling. When Spain and Greece begin to roil and Italy does the slight of hand with the napkin ( read: balance sheets), private capital gets queasy.
It's all fascinating and intensely interesting, but the last thing our gracious hosts needed this week was any turmoil. Ah well, the people are wonderful, the food is fantastic and ( for you JD) the beers are superb.....
As for Apple, I'm in the club with Plato that we test the 650-655 (50 day) territory. There is nothing wrong whatsoever with the Apple story but profits can be booked now for money managers' third quarter and October leaves plenty of time for reentry and repositioning before earnings are announced and the expected strong holiday quarter outlook is delivered. Remember how quickly we rebounded from 570 after the last quarter's ' disappointment'. When we turn....maybe next week...we could turn very quickly.
Viva the slingshot!
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Post by Wile E. Coyote on Sept 27, 2012 2:19:49 GMT -8
I keep looking at the futures page and they are shiny-green. I can't help but think that we will see an uphill locomotive here in a few hours.
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Post by rob_london on Sept 27, 2012 2:38:30 GMT -8
I keep looking at the futures page and they are shiny-green. I can't help but think that we will see an uphill locomotive here in a few hours. It is still early but Apple looks weak in pre-market trading relative to the market.
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Post by Big Al on Sept 27, 2012 3:04:38 GMT -8
I'm in Europe this week and watching closely the vibes in the financial and economic forums ( believe me, they are not one and the same). Apologies to Big Al and our other friends here in Lovey's domain who reside in Europe and live this every day, but to a Yank on a tour of potential investment sites ( infrastructure - the public sector in the EU can't afford what needs to be done - except Germany) so perhaps private capital from the Americas can step in on some level.....at least that is the theory.....the past few days have been unsettling. When Spain and Greece begin to roil and Italy does the slight of hand with the napkin ( read: balance sheets), private capital gets queasy. It's all fascinating and intensely interesting, but the last thing our gracious hosts needed this week was any turmoil. Ah well, the people are wonderful, the food is fantastic and ( for you JD) the beers are superb..... Well, there are currently really two different Europes. The states which were hit hard by the crisis (PIIGS plus some others) and the states that are financially not yet under stress. The population/society in one half is for the most part in despair, while the other part is hoping not to get drawn into the same mess. This is not really helpful for the idea of a common Europe, and I hope that we will get out of this situation sooner rather than later. As for Apple, I'm in the club with Plato that we test the 650-655 (50 day) territory. There is nothing wrong whatsoever with the Apple story but profits can be booked now for money managers' third quarter and October leaves plenty of time for reentry and repositioning before earnings are announced and the expected strong holiday quarter outlook is delivered. Remember how quickly we rebounded from 570 after the last quarter's ' disappointment'. When we turn....maybe next week...we could turn very quickly. Viva the slingshot! Yes, I think that testing the 650-55 area is quite likely. But it should give us some support. The 50-day MA is currently at 647 but should creep into this area within the next few days. The 38.2% Fib retracement level from our July 25th low is at 653. And the lower BB is at 651.
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 27, 2012 3:35:24 GMT -8
I haven't verified this but someone tweeted so I will share:
"UBS lowered December quarter iPhone units estimate to 38M from 44M and EPS estimate to $13.65 from $15.03 due to supply issues."
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 27, 2012 3:39:15 GMT -8
There were some underlining factors in 2008. Not saying that anything can't happen here but I think the downside risk is minimal here. Last week was the largest phone launch in history. I think we have a better chance of seeing 700 rather than 600. When the stock is in sentiment mode and the macro factors pose a risk fundamentals do not matter short-term, no matter how large the iPhone launch was. Just look at what happened between April 10th and May 18th. However, I agree with you that we will probably not go below 600. Not because of the great fundamentals (which I personally would accept as a very good argument), but because of our friend the 100-day MA - which is currently at $612. +1 EDIT: and thank you for sharing your insights on Europe in your latter post. It's so difficult to assess "reality" when the media oscillates between ignoring and hyper-focusing. (phooey media!)
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 27, 2012 3:45:08 GMT -8
(...) As for Apple, I'm in the club with Plato that we test the 650-655 (50 day) territory. There is nothing wrong whatsoever with the Apple story but profits can be booked now for money managers' third quarter and October leaves plenty of time for reentry and repositioning before earnings are announced and the expected strong holiday quarter outlook is delivered. Remember how quickly we rebounded from 570 after the last quarter's ' disappointment'. When we turn....maybe next week...we could turn very quickly. Viva the slingshot! +1 Red, so great to hear from you during your travels to mstefa's hometown! Very much appreciate you sharing your perspective on Europe.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 27, 2012 3:53:03 GMT -8
Anyone wondering WHY the fruit's trading the way it is, please watch SPY, DIA, QQQ or IWM. The broader market's driving the bus. We'll bounce when the market bounces. If SPY can't decisively reclaim its daily SMA-20 on the upcoming oversold bounce, consider finding *something* to short for hedge. If AAPL puts (bear spreads) don't sit well with you, please consider bear hedges on any of the above-mentioned ETFs, or your favorite hated stocks, hint, hint. On the other hand, a strong bounce that gets above -- closes above -- the daily SMA-20 bodes very well for bulls!! Just know that the charts have CHANGED. Across the board we're seeing: short-term downtrend and intermediate-term consolidation until proven otherwise. Which doesn't mean we can't have "upwaves in downtrends," but gravity is exerting its force right now, and will until we manage to break through its field. Remember: when buyers hold out for lower prices, prices fall. When sellers hold out for higher prices, prices rise.
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 27, 2012 4:12:37 GMT -8
Does anyone know where Max Pain is for tomorrow based on Mon thru Wed. adjustments?
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 27, 2012 4:15:42 GMT -8
Does anyone know where Max Pain is for tomorrow based on Mon thru Wed. adjustments? Currently showing 680 for pain, though agree JD's method of watching the highest OIs for puts and calls is a better gauge. Highest OI for puts: 660 2nd highest: 670 Highest OI for calls: 700 2nd highest: 690
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 27, 2012 4:17:02 GMT -8
(...) As for Apple, I'm in the club with Plato that we test the 650-655 (50 day) territory. There is nothing wrong whatsoever with the Apple story but profits can be booked now for money managers' third quarter and October leaves plenty of time for reentry and repositioning before earnings are announced and the expected strong holiday quarter outlook is delivered. Remember how quickly we rebounded from 570 after the last quarter's ' disappointment'. When we turn....maybe next week...we could turn very quickly. Viva the slingshot! +1 Red, so great to hear from you during your travels to mstefa's hometown! Very much appreciate you sharing your perspective on Europe. I'm just a wide eyed visitor, Lovey.....and every day I learn something because the only thing I know for certain is that I don't know much....I'm impressed by the innovative efforts to build a new economic floor plan. Much more "looking without" for solutions than last time I was here.....
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 27, 2012 4:19:11 GMT -8
Red, just more reasons why I love ya!
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 27, 2012 4:26:56 GMT -8
Red, just more reasons why I love ya! Let me count the ways.... I blush, m'lady.. Well, back to the tour of "the greatest investment opportunity in Europe today" ( note, this is different than yesterday's greatest opportunity...)
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Post by Rupert on Sept 27, 2012 4:46:02 GMT -8
Resistance/Support Thursday 09/27/2012
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Post by Plato on Sept 27, 2012 4:56:38 GMT -8
Anyone wondering WHY the fruit's trading the way it is, please watch SPY, DIA, QQQ or IWM. The broader market's driving the bus. We'll bounce when the market bounces. ... Yes and No - IMHO. The market drives AAPL b/c AAPL can't drive itself right now. Meaning, if Apple would have announced they sold 8+ Mio iPhone 5s over the weekend and their wouldn't be all this 'gate'-stuff going on (from scuff-gate to map-gate), I would almost bet my house that we would be at $700+ right now and defy the market (like GOOG did the last days).
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Post by chasmac on Sept 27, 2012 5:09:10 GMT -8
Red, just more reasons why I love ya! Let me count the ways.... I blush, m'lady.. Well, back to the tour of "the greatest investment opportunity in Europe today" ( note, this is different than yesterday's greatest opportunity...) Red, you'll have to check out Jon Stewart from last night. Your hero was on, very funny. Expect more stomach turning today. Those durable goods numbers didn't help.
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Post by podboy on Sept 27, 2012 5:49:24 GMT -8
100 pps difference between aapl & goog. Didn't see that coming.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 27, 2012 5:57:59 GMT -8
Does anyone know where Max Pain is for tomorrow based on Mon thru Wed. adjustments? 670-674.99
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 27, 2012 5:58:47 GMT -8
JUL'13 options are now available!!
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Post by ccs on Sept 27, 2012 6:13:27 GMT -8
Sold some shares to finance some option positions..... just waiting for a confirmed reversal before pulling the trigger
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 27, 2012 6:14:23 GMT -8
Anyone wondering WHY the fruit's trading the way it is, please watch SPY, DIA, QQQ or IWM. The broader market's driving the bus. We'll bounce when the market bounces. ... Yes and No - IMHO. The market drives AAPL b/c AAPL can't drive itself right now. Meaning, if Apple would have announced they sold 8+ Mio iPhone 5s over the weekend and their wouldn't be all this 'gate'-stuff going on (from scuff-gate to map-gate), I would almost bet my house that we would be at $700+ right now and defy the market (like GOOG did the last days). My "Tinfoil Hat Club" believes sentiment drives the news versus the reverse. So I think this price action would have happened regardless, and the news angle would have changed to explain the (same) action.
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Post by ccs on Sept 27, 2012 6:16:15 GMT -8
oh yeah, on a side note those Samesung commercials are friggin funny...
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Post by bernard on Sept 27, 2012 6:22:12 GMT -8
Did anyone capitalize on that 653 print a few minutes ago?
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Post by doublerainbow on Sept 27, 2012 6:25:58 GMT -8
I really hope this isn't the start of a long drawn out downtrend similar to back in May, but it also feels similar to same time last year (if I recall correctly) when the stock was off 14+% during Sept/Oct/Nov and finally broke free when there were signs of a huge holiday quarter in Dec/Jan. That's my pessimistic side talking. I bought some common yesterday but partially realized it was not the lowest (short-term) price I can get but just felt wrong not taking the opportunity. Still have 50%+ cash to put to work. I'll buy more whichever direction it takes (in increments of ~$10 since I'm not very scientific in my methods and simply base it on past observations). Good luck to everyone
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Post by dreamRaj on Sept 27, 2012 6:28:35 GMT -8
Did anyone capitalize on that 653 print a few minutes ago? 653?? I've been watching the stock fall from 664 to the 660s and rise to 666. This 653 you see must be the result of one of those glitches that happen from time to time.
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Post by dreamRaj on Sept 27, 2012 6:51:40 GMT -8
Okay, this seems like a legit reversal. Anyone expecting one last pullback today? Or tomorrow?
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brddd
New Poster
Posts: 6
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Post by brddd on Sept 27, 2012 6:53:11 GMT -8
Did anyone capitalize on that 653 print a few minutes ago? 653?? I've been watching the stock fall from 664 to the 660s and rise to 666. This 653 you see must be the result of one of those glitches that happen from time to time. I saw that on the CNBC mobile app and it gave me a good scare! It listed it as the low of the day, now it is updated to 660.35. Phew!
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