coma
Member
Posts: 520
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Post by coma on Jul 19, 2013 12:14:39 GMT -8
How do I put guys like sponge on ignore ? It would be a javascript . . . something like > > > javascript:ignore(%22sponge%22)
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Post by Lstream on Jul 19, 2013 12:15:50 GMT -8
How do I put guys like sponge on ignore ? Don't know about the app, but in a browser hit the little smily face below the avatar.
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Post by sponge on Jul 19, 2013 12:18:05 GMT -8
How do I put guys like sponge on ignore ? Don't know about the app, but in a browser hit the little smily face below the avatar. You know I can read all this. You will feel better when we get back to 600. Until then just switch channels.
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stub
Member
The fix is in. Be patient. Don't panic.
Posts: 300
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Post by stub on Jul 19, 2013 12:22:05 GMT -8
btw...
Did anybody notice?, this the 3rd week in a row that Max Pain got it's ass kicked.
I'm really starting to loose faith in it as any kind of an indicator.
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Post by applemuncher on Jul 19, 2013 12:33:27 GMT -8
Stale products + people waiting for new products = low Q4 guidance. Guidance is not based on "Stale products + people waiting for new products". Guidance is based on revenue expectations, regardless of product age or what customers are thinking. Historically, "Stale products + people waiting for new products" has been the State of Apple going into nearly every FQ4, and only once since F2005 has FQ4 results been lower than FQ3. Further, since F2005 FQ4 results have grown, at minimum, 5.96% YoY. Seven years historical data - 5.96% MINIMUM growth, with all the same conditions we have today. Applying that minimum growth to last year's results indicates, at minimum, FQ4/2013 Revenue of $38.1+ Billion. That means Guidance, at minimum, will be Good. I'm modeling FQ4/2013 Revenue at $40.5 Billion. That's 12.6% YoY growth. Hardly aggressive when you consider that 7 year average growth is 43+% YoY. This is why I'm conflicted about playing earnings. Will the market focus on Earnings, which we already know will be lower YoY, or will the market focus on Guidance which I believe will indicate a return to growth PRECEDING THE DECEMBER QUARTER. Hi Gregg, I think it is a mistake to base future revenue and earnings estimates on past results. It is amazing how quickly the technology landscape changes. If you are going to base your Q4 estimates on past results, then I suggest you take a careful look at the timing of Apple's product announcements. Here is the link. I maintain that Apple entered FYQ4 with a very stale product line. And sales of existing products will slow as we get closer to new product introductions.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jul 19, 2013 13:35:26 GMT -8
btw... Did anybody notice?, this the 3rd week in a row that Max Pain got it's ass kicked. I'm really starting to loose faith in it as any kind of an indicator. Closing less than 10 cents below where it should have is hardly an "ass-kicking." The range was $425 - $430 today.
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Post by appledoc on Jul 19, 2013 13:40:50 GMT -8
Bad, bad, bad. Let's see if we can recover before the end. Why is it bad? Thought it is expected behavior for a LD, down to $423-$418 follow by a strong up wave. So far, only $425.55, not inside the price zone yet. Speaking about MA only. Another failed attempt at the 100 day. I find it interesting that volume is this anemic going into earnings.
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Post by rickag on Jul 19, 2013 14:14:44 GMT -8
Why is it bad? Thought it is expected behavior for a LD, down to $423-$418 follow by a strong up wave. So far, only $425.55, not inside the price zone yet. Speaking about MA only. Another failed attempt at the 100 day. I find it interesting that volume is this anemic going into earnings. I believe it indicates AAPL has been a show me stock for a while now. Volume has sunk to levels last seen in December 2011, as has been previously mentioned. Having just said that, watch, AAPL will increase dramatically to $500 by this Tuesday afternoon just to prove me wrong. I'm convinced there is a worldwide conspiracy to screw with me, everyone from rice paddy farmers in Southeast Asia to world leaders including Obama regularly check up on me and plan on just how they can make me miserable… mmmm errrr .… my tinfoil hat sometimes gets very heavy.
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Post by tuffett on Jul 19, 2013 14:21:22 GMT -8
Apple still makes world class hardware which sells at high margins. Package iOS/OSX inside a piece of crap like a Dell box or Galaxy S4 case and would they have the same success? Was the embarrassing delay on the iMac due to software problems or hardware problems? I think hardware and software are equally important to both Apple and the consumer. I appreciate iOS but I also appreciate the design, durability and best-in-class display of my iPhone You and I may be different, but a lot of people initially opt for Apple because of hardware and design. I would want to look at some numbers, but in my gut, I am not fond of the idea of leaving out something as important as fingerprint scanning (and hence Mobile Payments) from any Apple phone. Doing so lessens the chance of Apple reclaiming the margin they give up through ecosystem revenue. Payment processing likely comes with Apple taking a piece of every transaction, not to mention the stickiness it drives. The faster Apple drives up iTunes accounts, the harder it is for them to be hurt by pure hardware players like Samsung. So leaving something out that drives stickiness and ecosystem revenue seems like a short-sighted idea to me. They would only have to do it for the first iteration as the technology starts out. Next year's model could have the scanner as costs come down an adoption increases. Besides, it's the people with the top-end phones that are more likely to be early adopters and use the technology to begin with.
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Post by tuffett on Jul 19, 2013 14:22:30 GMT -8
Don't know about the app, but in a browser hit the little smily face below the avatar. You know I can read all this. You will feel better when we get back to 600. Until then just switch channels. You are equally exasperating at all price levels.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 19, 2013 14:25:29 GMT -8
WS is taking advantage of retail money that knows Apple is a better stock than where it trades at today. Their advantage is they control ownership of it and they're minting some great coin from collecting option premiums with low risk, by staying out of Apple along with the others, AAPL remains depressed, expiring options one week after the next. Whoever claims the stock market is an efficient mechanism for valuation is a moron. Period.
My disappointment with Apple is I don't perceive them as trying to disrupt the weekly option pin, especially on a low volume day today. AAPL will continue to be gamed with this kind of option activity and institutions are dealing the winning hand.
My attitude toward equities now is to pick a stock with little open interest on the options and is fundamentally undervalued. There's simply too much OI on AAPL to be confident it will move above all the call walls in front of it.
My distaste (more like disgust) for the media Wall Street is at an ATH.
Time to open the bar.
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stub
Member
The fix is in. Be patient. Don't panic.
Posts: 300
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Post by stub on Jul 19, 2013 14:55:12 GMT -8
btw... Did anybody notice?, this the 3rd week in a row that Max Pain got it's ass kicked. I'm really starting to loose faith in it as any kind of an indicator. Closing less than 10 cents below where it should have is hardly an "ass-kicking." The range was $425 - $430 today. no, I don't know what you're going by. It says $435 on my Max Pain site. It closed about $10 below that today, and the last 2 Friday's closes were an even greater gap. Even the intraday high was $433.98 which was a little over a dollar less than that.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jul 19, 2013 15:00:59 GMT -8
Closing less than 10 cents below where it should have is hardly an "ass-kicking." The range was $425 - $430 today. no, I don't know what you're going by. It says $435 on my Max Pain site. It closed about $10 below that today, and the last 2 Friday's closes were an even greater gap. Even the intraday high was $433.98 which was a little over a dollar less than that. Go to www.theocc.com or Travis' site. After MSFT and GOOG earnings reports, the downside was favoring sub $430 this morning.
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stub
Member
The fix is in. Be patient. Don't panic.
Posts: 300
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Post by stub on Jul 19, 2013 15:01:54 GMT -8
Speaking about MA only. Another failed attempt at the 100 day. I find it interesting that volume is this anemic going into earnings. I believe it indicates AAPL has been a show me stock for a while now. Volume has sunk to levels last seen in December 2011, as has been previously mentioned. Having just said that, watch, AAPL will increase dramatically to $500 by this Tuesday afternoon just to prove me wrong. I'm convinced there is a worldwide conspiracy to screw with me, everyone from rice paddy farmers in Southeast Asia to world leaders including Obama regularly check up on me and plan on just how they can make me miserable… mmmm errrr .… my tinfoil hat sometimes gets very heavy. Why is this such a far fetched idea? You're probably right. I include myself as a victim of the above mentioned conspiracy.
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Post by artman1033 on Jul 19, 2013 15:02:18 GMT -8
WS is taking advantage of retail money that knows Apple is a better stock than where it trades at today. Their advantage is they control ownership of it and they're minting some great coin from collecting option premiums with low risk, by staying out of Apple along with the others, AAPL remains depressed, expiring options one week after the next. Whoever claims the stock market is an efficient mechanism for valuation is a moron. Period. My disappointment with Apple is I don't perceive them as trying to disrupt the weekly option pin, especially on a low volume day today. AAPL will continue to be gamed with this kind of option activity and institutions are dealing the winning hand. My attitude toward equities now is to pick a stock with little open interest on the options and is fundamentally undervalued. There's simply too much OI on AAPL to be confident it will move above all the call walls in front of it. My distaste (more like disgust) for the media Wall Street is at an ATH. Time to open the bar. QUESTION! Why should Apple want AAPL to be priced higher now? 1) Does Apple BOD want Apple management & employees to pay a higher price for AAPL? 2) Does Apple BOD want to pay a higher price to buy back AAPL? IMHO: It is not in their interest to get AAPL back up to $600-700 when they can buy it back cheaper. Apple management and BOD have NEVER said they liked traders or option buyers to make money. NEVER!
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 19, 2013 15:02:39 GMT -8
Closing less than 10 cents below where it should have is hardly an "ass-kicking." The range was $425 - $430 today. no, I don't know what you're going by. It says $435 on my Max Pain site. It closed about $10 below that today, and the last 2 Friday's closes were an even greater gap. Even the intraday high was $433.98 which was a little over a dollar less than that. And you don't look at intraday stuff in evaluating Max Pain. It's irrelevant; It's all about closing price for Max Pain.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jul 19, 2013 15:05:10 GMT -8
WS is taking advantage of retail money that knows Apple is a better stock than where it trades at today. Their advantage is they control ownership of it and they're minting some great coin from collecting option premiums with low risk, by staying out of Apple along with the others, AAPL remains depressed, expiring options one week after the next. Whoever claims the stock market is an efficient mechanism for valuation is a moron. Period. My disappointment with Apple is I don't perceive them as trying to disrupt the weekly option pin, especially on a low volume day today. AAPL will continue to be gamed with this kind of option activity and institutions are dealing the winning hand. My attitude toward equities now is to pick a stock with little open interest on the options and is fundamentally undervalued. There's simply too much OI on AAPL to be confident it will move above all the call walls in front of it. My distaste (more like disgust) for the media Wall Street is at an ATH. Time to open the bar. QUESTION! Why should Apple want AAPL to be priced higher now? 1) Does Apple BOD want Apple management & employees to pay a higher price for AAPL? 2) Does Apple BOD want to pay a higher price to buy back AAPL? IMHO: It is not in their interest to get AAPL back up to $600-700 when they can buy it back cheaper. Apple management and BOD have NEVER said they liked traders or option buyers to make money. NEVER!Why does Apple want a higher stock price? SIMPLE. 1. Employee recruitment AND retention And if you think for a second that Apple isn't competing for talent based on stock-based compensation, I have a bridge to sell you. This is real-world TODAY stuff. Apple's fortunes (and presumably stock price if the stock market wasn't so F'd up) depend on the quality of its employees.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jul 19, 2013 15:13:35 GMT -8
FWIW: AAPL down AMZN UP to $304+ GOOG recovering, now down 18 to $892.00, was as low as $875 + brilliant observation from a British telecom fellow: Benedict Evans seems like an insightful chap, but he doesn't seem to know crap about how apple operates. He thinks apple will release a low margin $200 iPhone and thinks Apple will market it simply on it being cheaper. So anything he says about apple I wouldn't value at all.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jul 19, 2013 15:16:04 GMT -8
FWIW: AAPL down AMZN UP to $304+ GOOG recovering, now down 18 to $892.00, was as low as $875 + brilliant observation from a British telecom fellow: Benedict Evans seems light an insightful chap, but he doesn't seem to know crap about how apple operates. He thinks apple will release a low margin $200 iPhone and thinks Apple will market it simply on it being cheaper. So anything he says about apple I wouldn't value at all. My best guess is that the mid-line iPhone retails for $399 - $429. I don't think Apple will sell for less (and I don't think they have to either). Benedict Evans is nuts with his $200 iPhone. LOL P.S. Lovey, can you give us a minute to edit before it goes to "modified." It ain't easy typing in this tiny box without typos, or more common, a sh**y spell checker.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jul 19, 2013 15:22:44 GMT -8
P.S. Lovey, can you give us a minute to edit before it goes to "modified." It ain't easy typing in this tiny box without typos, or more common, a sh**y spell checker. Sorry, I don't know how. If anyone else does, let me know!
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