chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Jul 19, 2013 14:42:56 GMT -8
The bar is open...make mine...STRONG Reuters reporting Samsung is close to a deal with the FBI. Should be quite a trick to make Android meet their security requirements.
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Post by tuffett on Jul 19, 2013 14:56:50 GMT -8
Apple reportedly acquires public transit and navigation firm HopStop [update: co... goo.gl/svdKyAbout time...Maps is not a complete mapping solution without proper transit and walking info. Can't wait to ditch Google Maps.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 19, 2013 15:24:55 GMT -8
QUESTION! Why should Apple want AAPL to be priced higher now? 1) Does Apple BOD want Apple management & employees to pay a higher price for AAPL? 2) Does Apple BOD want to pay a higher price to buy back AAPL? IMHO: It is not in their interest to get AAPL back up to $600-700 when they can buy it back cheaper. Apple management and BOD have NEVER said they liked traders or option buyers to make money. NEVER!Why does Apple want a higher stock price? SIMPLE. 1. Employee recruitment AND retention And if you think for a second that Apple isn't competing for talent based on stock-based compensation, I have a bridge to sell you. This is real-world TODAY stuff. Apple's fortunes (and presumably stock price if the stock market wasn't so F'd up) depend on the quality of its employees. I agree with this - it doesn't seem logical that anyone at apple is happy with keeping the share price low.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jul 19, 2013 15:25:52 GMT -8
...watch, AAPL will increase dramatically to $500 by this Tuesday afternoon just to prove me wrong. I'm convinced there is a worldwide conspiracy to screw with me, everyone from rice paddy farmers in Southeast Asia to world leaders including Obama regularly check up on me and plan on just how they can make me miserable… mmmm errrr .… my tinfoil hat sometimes gets very heavy. ROFLMAO!!! Thank you, I needed that!!!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 19, 2013 15:26:16 GMT -8
Apple reportedly acquires public transit and navigation firm HopStop [update: co... goo.gl/svdKyAbout time...Maps is not a complete mapping solution without proper transit and walking info. Can't wait to ditch Google Maps. This looks fantastic! Downloaded the app and its the first one I have seen which has full transit info for my city (wellington, NZ) can't wait to see it integrated in iMaps.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 19, 2013 15:34:13 GMT -8
Gregg & LStream: iWork apps for iCloud are basically web based versions of the iWork Mac Apps, so if you are wondering about features/quality or offline use on flights - just look to the Mac Versions
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Post by Lstream on Jul 19, 2013 15:40:15 GMT -8
Gregg & LStream: iWork apps for iCloud are basically web based versions of the iWork Mac Apps, so if you are wondering about features/quality or offline use on flights - just look to the Mac Versions My understanding is that the Mac versions will be obsoleted by the Web versions. Is that a bad assumption?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 19, 2013 16:44:42 GMT -8
The faster Apple drives up iTunes accounts, the harder it is for them to be hurt by pure hardware players like Samsung. So leaving something out that drives stickiness and ecosystem revenue seems like a short-sighted idea to me.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 19, 2013 16:48:25 GMT -8
Did anybody notice?, this the 3rd week in a row that Max Pain got it's ass kicked. There is no such thing as Max Pain.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jul 19, 2013 16:53:46 GMT -8
Yeah, yeah, blah, blah. Let's all agree to disagree on this topic and move on...
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Post by Lstream on Jul 19, 2013 16:58:02 GMT -8
Did anybody notice?, this the 3rd week in a row that Max Pain got it's ass kicked. There is no such thing as Max Pain. Reading about here is pretty painful. Does that count?
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Post by rickag on Jul 19, 2013 17:01:39 GMT -8
...watch, AAPL will increase dramatically to $500 by this Tuesday afternoon just to prove me wrong. I'm convinced there is a worldwide conspiracy to screw with me, everyone from rice paddy farmers in Southeast Asia to world leaders including Obama regularly check up on me and plan on just how they can make me miserable… mmmm errrr .… my tinfoil hat sometimes gets very heavy. ROFLMAO!!! Thank you, I needed that!!! LOL? ? I was serious. Well, maybe not completely serious. Now back to my favorite program on the History channel, Ancient Aliens.
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Post by artman1033 on Jul 19, 2013 17:10:38 GMT -8
FWIW:
As I recall (it is the weekend, so I don't want to look it up right now, unless someone insists)
The MOST an Apple employee has ever paid for a share of AAPL is about $385.63.
Through the ESOP, the employee pays 85% of the LOWEST price in a 6 month period.
SO, I continue to say, APPLE does not care that the price is this low at this time.
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Post by applemuncher on Jul 19, 2013 17:17:11 GMT -8
FWIW: As I recall (it is the weekend, so I don't want to look it up right now, unless someone insists) The MOST an Apple employee has ever paid for a share of AAPL is about $385.63. Through the ESOP, the employee pays 85% of the LOWEST price in a 6 month period. SO, I continue to say, APPLE does not care that the price is this low at this time. The plan you are talking about is the ESPP (Employee Stock Purchase Plan) Any employee making over about $80K per year is also given stock options that vest over time. That plan has been called the ESOP in prior years. The strike price is set on the day the grant is made. So there are a bunch of employees out there who received options last year with a strike price that is higher than the price today. Apple wants the stock price to go up so employees have another reason to stay with the company.
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Post by artman1033 on Jul 19, 2013 17:18:41 GMT -8
The bar is open...make mine...STRONG Bartender: over here! Can I get a pitcher of ice water. I'm still on a diet. OH! These three ladies......... they are my NIECES. That is a a a Tiffany, That is Monique and that is Natasha. The ladies would like some champagne. They want a dom perignon 2000. No. I tell you they are over 21. I don't think they have an ID on them. Could you just add that to my tab?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 19, 2013 17:36:17 GMT -8
Hi Gregg, I think it is a mistake to base future revenue and earnings estimates on past results. It is amazing how quickly the technology landscape changes. If you are going to base your Q4 estimates on past results, then I suggest you take a careful look at the timing of Apple's product announcements. Here is the link. I maintain that Apple entered FYQ4 with a very stale product line. And sales of existing products will slow as we get closer to new product introductions. I use management's guidance to create my estimates. I use historical data for QoQ and YoY results that may add color to what my calculations are telling me. As an example: when seven years worth of data (including the bank meltdown and its after affects) show minimum FQ4 QoQ growth at 6%, I have to feel its reasonable that Apple will achieve at least that much. My model is projecting 12% growth, so obviously I am not using 7 years of historical data sway me. It's just a data point that I use to support my contention that Apple's FQ4 Guidance will be good. Further, I can use the same data to counter the claim that Apple's products are stale, etc. The same conditions existed in at least one of the past 7 years, and minimum growth was 6%. I think seasonality ie., March results are the lowest of the calendar year, next higher was the June quarter, followed by the September quarter and topped off by the December quarter, has a lot to do with Apple's Revenue. That data point has held true for 30 of the 33 prior quarters. It is true for 6 of the seven FQ4 periods the sample covers. So, in broad terms I think it reasonable to assume that FQ4/2013 Revenue will be higher than FQ4/2012 by a minimum of 6% (ergo good Guidance). If I have interpreted Apple's Guidance correctly, FQ4 Revenue will grow ~12% QoQ. If I am correct Apple's Guidance won't be good, it will be very good. To tack on another data point, in April Guided June quarter Revenue declining, but the market reacted positively. I think that was due to Apple exceeding consensus earnings, giving WS confidence in management's Guidance metric, something they hadn't had for the 3 prior quarters. Now, if I am correct about that also, then WS will rejoice at the return of Revenue and Earnings growth. Then there's the meddlesome aspect of the media and bloggers failing to recognize the horrible YoY GM% compares, referring them as simply "declining", without noting from where they were declining, or that they only declined to historic (INDUSTRY LEADING) levels. The value of any equity is generated by the investment community's sentiment to the Company. Unfortunately, for the past 9 months that sentiment was shaped by shallow, often times inaccurate, reporting. Returning to Revenue and Earnings growth (after a one year hiatus by the most recognized Company in the world) is the kind of 'man bites dog' story the media craves. Guiding to Revenue growth could have a very positive impact on AAPL. It all depends on management's Guidance and whether the media focuses on that, or Apple's Earnings.
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Post by applemuncher on Jul 19, 2013 17:48:00 GMT -8
Hi Gregg, I think it is a mistake to base future revenue and earnings estimates on past results. It is amazing how quickly the technology landscape changes. If you are going to base your Q4 estimates on past results, then I suggest you take a careful look at the timing of Apple's product announcements. Here is the link. I maintain that Apple entered FYQ4 with a very stale product line. And sales of existing products will slow as we get closer to new product introductions. I use management's guidance to create my estimates. I use historical data for QoQ and YoY results that may add color to what my calculations are telling me. As an example: when seven years worth of data (including the bank meltdown and its after affects) show minimum FQ4 QoQ growth at 6%, I have to feel its reasonable that Apple will achieve at least that much. My model is projecting 12% growth, so obviously I am not using 7 years of historical data sway me. It's just a data point that I use to support my contention that Apple's FQ4 Guidance will be good. Further, I can use the same data to counter the claim that Apple's products are stale, etc. The same conditions existed in at least one of the past 7 years, and minimum growth was 6%. I think seasonality ie., March results are the lowest of the calendar year, next higher was the June quarter, followed by the September quarter and topped off by the December quarter, has a lot to do with Apple's Revenue. That data point has held true for 30 of the 33 prior quarters. It is true for 6 of the seven FQ4 periods the sample covers. So, in broad terms I think it reasonable to assume that FQ4/2013 Revenue will be higher than FQ4/2012 by a minimum of 6% (ergo good Guidance). If I have interpreted Apple's Guidance correctly, FQ4 Revenue will grow ~12% QoQ. If I am correct Apple's Guidance won't be good, it will be very good. To tack on another data point, in April Guided June quarter Revenue declining, but the market reacted positively. I think that was due to Apple exceeding consensus earnings, giving WS confidence in management's Guidance metric, something they hadn't had for the 3 prior quarters. Now, if I am correct about that also, then WS will rejoice at the return of Revenue and Earnings growth. Then there's the meddlesome aspect of the media and bloggers failing to recognize the horrible YoY GM% compares, referring them as simply "declining", without noting from where they were declining, or that they only declined to historic (INDUSTRY LEADING) levels. The value of any equity is generated by the investment community's sentiment to the Company. Unfortunately, for the past 9 months that sentiment was shaped by shallow, often times inaccurate, reporting. Returning to Revenue and Earnings growth (after a one year hiatus by the most recognized Company in the world) is the kind of 'man bites dog' story the media craves. Guiding to Revenue growth could have a very positive impact on AAPL. It all depends on management's Guidance and whether the media focuses on that, or Apple's Earnings. Thanks for the detailed reply Gregg. I agree with some of your points. I can't remember...how accurate have your revenue and earnings predictions been the past year?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 19, 2013 17:50:29 GMT -8
QUESTION! Why should Apple want AAPL to be priced higher now? 1) Does Apple BOD want Apple management & employees to pay a higher price for AAPL? 2) Does Apple BOD want to pay a higher price to buy back AAPL? IMHO: It is not in their interest to get AAPL back up to $600-700 when they can buy it back cheaper. Apple management and BOD have NEVER said they liked traders or option buyers to make money. NEVER! It's a lot cheaper to buy back stock, than it is to lose out on a hire you want. Besides, just because the BoD authorized $60 Billion to buy back doesn't mean they will. If AAPL returns to $700, and Apple only used $30 Billion along the way, what's to keep them from not buying back any more? Remember that $60 Billion was budgeted over a 30 month period, and then there's the dividend payouts. I'll wager that will be much more expensive than the buy back.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 19, 2013 18:00:27 GMT -8
Thanks for the detailed reply Greg. I agree with some of your points. I can't remember...how accurate have your revenue and earnings predictions been the past year? They've been horrible, until March quarter results. If I recall correctly I was among the top 15, overall, of PED's 50 analysts. I'm looking to crack the top 10 this time around. The change in my accuracy was recognizing the change in management's Guidance metric, and applying it to the March quarter Guidance. I recognized the change 9 months late, but 40 minutes before PO made a point of bringing the change to WS's attention. I posted my observation about 20 minutes before the conference call commenced. Wish I had recognized it just 100 days earlier. That 100 days cost me a little over $400,000. It cost Andy Zaky his reputation and a seven figure business.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 19, 2013 18:06:58 GMT -8
I rolled my $425/$430 Call Spreads that were going to expire today, into next week's $430/$435 Call Spreads. In responding to posts today, and reviewing my logic in the process, I talked myself into an Earnings play. A big part of the re-invest decision was: I was going to lose money just Closing them out. By rolling them forward I have a chance of making money (always a better result).
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 19, 2013 18:14:56 GMT -8
Apple reportedly acquires public transit and navigation firm HopStop [update: co... goo.gl/svdKyAbout time...Maps is not a complete mapping solution without proper transit and walking info. Can't wait to ditch Google Maps. Apple's mobile advertising revenue is #1 in the industry, outdistancing Google. Most of my mobile searches are via Apple Maps. If Apple pulls the plug on Google Maps, its going to hurt them, badly.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 19, 2013 18:28:33 GMT -8
Did anybody notice?, this the 3rd week in a row that Max Pain got it's ass kicked. There is no such thing as Max Pain. And Kim Kardashian is a virgin....
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Post by rickag on Jul 19, 2013 18:29:17 GMT -8
Apple reportedly acquires public transit and navigation firm HopStop [update: co... goo.gl/svdKyAbout time...Maps is not a complete mapping solution without proper transit and walking info. Can't wait to ditch Google Maps. Apple's mobile advertising revenue is #1 in the industry, outdistancing Google. Most of my mobile searches are via Apple Maps. If Apple pulls the plug on Google Maps, its going to hurt them, badly. That is great do you have a link?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 19, 2013 19:19:28 GMT -8
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Post by lovemyipad on Jul 19, 2013 19:27:34 GMT -8
I rolled my $425/$430 Call Spreads that were going to expire today, into next week's $430/$435 Call Spreads. In responding to posts today, and reviewing my logic in the process, I talked myself into an Earnings play. A big part of the re-invest decision was: I was going to lose money just Closing them out. By rolling them forward I have a chance of making money (always a better result). I believe gamblers call that "double or nothing."
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 19, 2013 20:26:02 GMT -8
Apple's mobile advertising revenue is #1 in the industry, outdistancing Google. Most of my mobile searches are via Apple Maps. If Apple pulls the plug on Google Maps, its going to hurt them, badly. That is great do you have a link? It was an article by one of the market research firms. I believe I read it in the last week.
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Post by capablanca on Jul 19, 2013 20:53:12 GMT -8
In the calm of a weekend I make a modest proposal for consideration of the contributors to this board: Let us start a separate thread as a repository for those posts by people who know better than Tim Cook how he should manage the quarterly conference calls.
It would do wonders for my blood pressure to be spared having to read any more of them.
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Post by capablanca on Jul 19, 2013 20:58:36 GMT -8
FWIW: As I recall (it is the weekend, so I don't want to look it up right now, unless someone insists) The MOST an Apple employee has ever paid for a share of AAPL is about $385.63. Through the ESOP, the employee pays 85% of the LOWEST price in a 6 month period. SO, I continue to say, APPLE does not care that the price is this low at this time. Without comment on the underlying argument ... The plan works a bit differently than described here. The price paid is 85% of the lower of two prices on two specific dates 6 months apart, rather than the lowest price during the 6 month period.
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Post by applemuncher on Jul 19, 2013 20:59:01 GMT -8
Thanks for the detailed reply Greg. I agree with some of your points. I can't remember...how accurate have your revenue and earnings predictions been the past year? They've been horrible, until March quarter results. If I recall correctly I was among the top 15, overall, of PED's 50 analysts. I'm looking to crack the top 10 this time around. The change in my accuracy was recognizing the change in management's Guidance metric, and applying it to the March quarter Guidance. I recognized the change 9 months late, but 40 minutes before PO made a point of bringing the change to WS's attention. I posted my observation about 20 minutes before the conference call commenced. Wish I had recognized it just 100 days earlier. That 100 days cost me a little over $400,000. It cost Andy Zaky his reputation and a seven figure business. Sorry to hear that Gregg. The past 12 months have been painful for me too. Good luck on the options trade next week.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 19, 2013 21:11:22 GMT -8
Simply incredible.. "First do no evil". Makes me think of Shakespeare: "Me thinks thou doth protest to much" (or some such).
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