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Post by artman1033 on Jul 20, 2013 3:52:38 GMT -8
FWIW: As I recall (it is the weekend, so I don't want to look it up right now, unless someone insists) The MOST an Apple employee has ever paid for a share of AAPL is about $385.63. Through the ESOP, the employee pays 85% of the LOWEST price in a 6 month period. SO, I continue to say, APPLE does not care that the price is this low at this time. The plan you are talking about is the ESPP (Employee Stock Purchase Plan) Any employee making over about $80K per year is also given stock options that vest over time. That plan has been called the ESOP in prior years. The strike price is set on the day the grant is made. So there are a bunch of employees out there who received options last year with a strike price that is higher than the price today. Apple wants the stock price to go up so employees have another reason to stay with the company. You are correct about the ESPP as covered in the 10-Q page 65IMHO: Apple is evolving to a RSU grant system and away from the option at a certain strike price. The remaining option strike prices in 2012 were at $128.03 and lower as I understand the figures on page 66. I still don't think Apple BOD cares that AAPL is at $424.95 at this time.
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Post by appledoc on Jul 20, 2013 5:36:52 GMT -8
I would just like to note that Greg is talking out of his ass again. He finished 59th of 62 analysts based on EPS and revs for the March quarter. He finished 67/68 in the December quarter.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 20, 2013 7:06:29 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Jul 20, 2013 7:45:26 GMT -8
I still don't think Apple BOD cares that AAPL is at $424.95 at this time. This ranks right up there with your prediction there would be no iPad mini. Did you listen to Tim Cook's comment at the last earnings call? He clearly is unhappy with it. Moreover, he SHOULD be if he's competing for talent, as seems likely if he's to fill that spaceship. Google is able to show its new hires how much stock-based comparison has meant to its employees. Apple? Over the last 9 months, it's been a disaster.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 20, 2013 8:11:32 GMT -8
I still don't think Apple BOD cares that AAPL is at $424.95 at this time. This ranks right up there with your prediction there would be no iPad mini. Did you listen to Tim Cook's comment at the last earnings call? He clearly is unhappy with it. Moreover, he SHOULD be if he's competing for talent, as seems likely if he's to fill that spaceship. Google is able to show its new hires how much stock-based comparison has meant to its employees. Apple? Over the last 9 months, it's been a disaster. I agree with Mercel. It matters. What I had hoped was that the cash utilization program would allow Apple to improve sentiment AND build a better floor under the share price. Not yet.... One of dozens of interesting facts to be revealed Tuesday is how many shares Apple bough during the quarter...the average price has to be 415-430...could be less. What will this show about how the program will be implemented in future quarters? What impact will it have? In my silly early quarter back of the envelope calculations I had assumed an average purchase price of 450-465. Ha!
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 20, 2013 8:30:37 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Jul 20, 2013 9:23:42 GMT -8
I would just like to note that Greg is talking out of his ass again. He finished 59th of 62 analysts based on EPS and revs for the March quarter. He finished 67/68 in the December quarter. Appledoc is correct. That's what I get for not checking my data before posting. The March quarter of 2012 was the first in which Apple used its new Guidance metric. The margin of error for July 2012 earnings ranged up to 81.2%. Average of the Independent Analysts was 51.4%. My margin of error was 51.3%. I did not participate in the October Handicap. The margin of error improved, ranging up to 40.31%. For January the margin of error ranged up to 20.13%. My margin of error was 15.78%, an improvement of 69% from July estimates. January was when I recognized that Apple had changed Guidance metrics (much to late). It was also when PO made a point about it, as the margin of error from all analysts continued to be to large. March was the first quarter that I estimated using what I thought was management's new metric. Philip Elmer DeWitt began his round up of estimates with "The first test of Apple's new guidance philosophy: Belief vs. reasonable confidence". My March quarter overall Revenue/Earnings margin of error was 7.5%. As nice as my margin of error improvements were I was not improving as fast as others. The range extended to 11.9%. One thing I have discovered is that T Michael Walkley (Canaccord Genuity) has consistently been in top 10 of analysts. The pro analysts we are more familiar with don't measure up. Thank you Appledoc for making me look this up. This has been a good exercise.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 20, 2013 9:59:14 GMT -8
Here is my WAG for FQ3 2013. I was 5% high last quarter and could be again, but I think not (I'm a half-glass full kind of guy except when it comes to Wall Street)
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Post by Luckychoices on Jul 20, 2013 10:13:50 GMT -8
I would just like to note that Greg is talking out of his ass again. He finished 59th of 62 analysts based on EPS and revs for the March quarter. He finished 67/68 in the December quarter. Appledoc is correct. That's what I get for not checking my data before posting.The March quarter of 2012 was the first in which Apple used its new Guidance metric. The margin of error for July 2012 earnings ranged up to 81.2%. Average of the Independent Analysts was 51.4%. My margin of error was 51.3%. I did not participate in the October Handicap. The margin of error improved, ranging up to 40.31%. For January the margin of error ranged up to 20.13%. My margin of error was 15.78%, an improvement of 69% from July estimates. January was when I recognized that Apple had changed Guidance metrics (much to late). It was also when PO made a point about it, as the margin of error from all analysts continued to be to large. March was the first quarter that I estimated using what I thought was management's new metric. Philip Elmer DeWitt began his round up of estimates with "The first test of Apple's new guidance philosophy: Belief vs. reasonable confidence". My March quarter overall Revenue/Earnings margin of error was 7.5%. As nice as my margin of error improvements were I was not improving as fast as others. The range extended to 11.9%. One thing I have discovered is that T Michael Walkley (Canaccord Genuity) has consistently been in top 10 of analysts. The pro analysts we are more familiar with don't measure up. Thank you Appledoc for making me look this up. This has been a good exercise. Gasp! A completely civil response to a less than civil comment. Is there a chance this concept could catch on in this forum?
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Post by artman1033 on Jul 20, 2013 10:15:39 GMT -8
Here is my WAG for FQ3 2013. I was 5% high last quarter and could be again, but I think not (I'm a half-glass full kind of guy except when it comes to Wall Street) 946,035 million shares 4/24/13So, you are saying at least 10 million shares @$420 per share = $4,200,000,000 in buyback + additional buyback to cover shares distributed to employees in quarter?
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 20, 2013 10:15:56 GMT -8
I'm at $7.74. My GM is slightly high than yours...which surprises me and makes me want to rethink it.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 20, 2013 10:17:38 GMT -8
Here is my WAG for FQ3 2013. I was 5% high last quarter and could be again, but I think not (I'm a half-glass full kind of guy except when it comes to Wall Street) 946,035 million shares 4/24/13So, you are saying at least 10 million shares @$420 per share = $4,200,000,000 in buyback + additional buyback to cover shares distributed to employees in quarter? That sounds about right to me...
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Post by Deleted on Jul 20, 2013 10:22:07 GMT -8
Here is my WAG for FQ3 2013. I was 5% high last quarter and could be again, but I think not (I'm a half-glass full kind of guy except when it comes to Wall Street) 946,035 million shares 4/24/13So, you are saying at least 10 million shares @$420 per share = $4,200,000,000 in buyback + additional buyback to cover shares distributed to employees in quarter? Apple averaged dilution of approx. 1-3M shares per quarter,not 4M, but yes, 10M shares repurchased net of stock issuance to employees.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 20, 2013 10:24:00 GMT -8
I'm at $7.74. My GM is slightly high than yours...which surprises me and makes me want to rethink it. The troubling stat is sequential decline in historical GMs from FQ2 to FQ3. I think the cost of Apple's divorce from Samscum is a big cause for the YOY declines.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 20, 2013 10:31:34 GMT -8
FWIW, I check my EPS estimate 4 ways and the composite average differed by 2 cents from $7.62 EPS, so although I'm comfortable with this, it's still a WAG. Keep in mind that Apple can surprise to the upside, and I don't think Peter O aggravates over beating the high end of his range one single bit. I see his guidance range as a floor.
VZ sales give me hope Apple sold more than 27M iPhones, but that's ONE carrier in the US market. My concerns over iPhone units sold are more with international markets.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 20, 2013 10:43:36 GMT -8
I'm at $7.74. My GM is slightly high than yours...which surprises me and makes me want to rethink it. I'm at $7.75, but if Apple reports a 2.2 million unit iPhone surprise (my estimate 27.8 million) we could see $8.00.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 20, 2013 10:45:48 GMT -8
I see his guidance range as a floor Yes. That's why I'm watching for Guidance that exceeds last year's results.
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Post by JDSoCal on Jul 20, 2013 11:53:54 GMT -8
Did anybody notice?, this the 3rd week in a row that Max Pain got it's ass kicked. There is no such thing as Max Pain. You know Gregg, I just don't get how somebody who can be so insightful and analytical WRT fundie analysis of Apple can be so willfully blind about AAPL every single Friday. I don't care if you think it's caused by unicorn farts because options cause GI problems for hooved animals, 90+% of the time, the stock will drop Th-F if the call walls are high enough and the common is above that strike. And I will continue to sell call spreads above that level late in the week. Would you at least consider getting the fuck out of your long spreads on a Wednesday? Just for shits and giggles? Now, cue the skeptics who will fail to produce an alternative theory that is anywhere near as predictive.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 20, 2013 12:03:21 GMT -8
There is no such thing as Max Pain. You know Gregg, I just don't get how somebody who can be so insightful and analytical WRT fundie analysis of Apple can be so willfully blind about AAPL every single Friday. I don't care if you think it's caused by unicorn farts because options cause GI problems for hooved animals, 90+% of the time, the stock will drop Th-F if the call walls are high enough and the common is above that strike. And I will continue to sell call spreads above that level late in the week. Would you at least consider getting the fuck out of your long spreads on a Wednesday? Just for shits and giggles? Now, cue the skeptics who will fail to produce an alternative theory that is anywhere near as predictive. I've missed you JD. Unicorn farts, indeed......
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Post by Mav on Jul 20, 2013 12:28:56 GMT -8
Nice numbers Mercel.
I'm at: $36.16B revs/$7.81 EPS 29.5M iPhones ($595 ASP) 18.75M iPads ($430 ASP) 936M shares
We'll see if Verizon was an outlier or an "early indicator". I'm betting on the latter.
Mercel, you've got quite a YOY jump on both the iTunes/etc. and Accessories categories. I just bumped them about 20% YOY ($3.54B/$795M). Any color on that?
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Post by appledoc on Jul 20, 2013 12:35:25 GMT -8
Gasp! A completely civil response to a less than civil comment. Is there a chance this concept could catch on in this forum? Maybe once all the trash gets filtered out from the board. It gets old seeing imaginary facts and lies day after day here. Greg's comment on his March quarter performance was akin to Paul Ryan claiming he ran a sub-3 hour marathon.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 20, 2013 12:44:17 GMT -8
Nice numbers Mercel. I'm at: $36.16B revs/$7.81 EPS 29.5M iPhones ($595 ASP) 18.75M iPads ($430 ASP) 936M shares We'll see if Verizon was an outlier or an "early indicator". I'm betting on the latter. Mercel, you've got quite a YOY jump on both the iTunes/etc. and Accessories categories. I just bumped them about 20% YOY ($3.54B/$795M). Any color on that? iTunes/Software/Services is THE most consistent category that Apple reports, and if you look at YOY going back to Q1 2011 (as restated), it's quite easy to use 30%. And yeah, most estimates are rounded except for GM, which is derived from using different GMs for each product category.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 20, 2013 12:47:15 GMT -8
I think this is the first time you're reporting a higher EPS #. I noticed that Daniel Tello isn't playing (so far) and has anyone seen an EPS # from Turley Muller?
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Post by Deleted on Jul 20, 2013 12:47:39 GMT -8
There is no such thing as Max Pain. You know Gregg, I just don't get how somebody who can be so insightful and analytical WRT fundie analysis of Apple can be so willfully blind about AAPL every single Friday. I don't care if you think it's caused by unicorn farts because options cause GI problems for hooved animals, 90+% of the time, the stock will drop Th-F if the call walls are high enough and the common is above that strike. And I will continue to sell call spreads above that level late in the week. Would you at least consider getting the fuck out of your long spreads on a Wednesday? Just for shits and giggles? Now, cue the skeptics who will fail to produce an alternative theory that is anywhere near as predictive. LOL. Oh the phone calls, emails and PMs I've received this last week about that dichotomy. I have an optimist streak going down my back that is 3 miles wide. I don't seem to care how dark the clouds are today, tomorrow is another day. I struggle balancing that against realities that are negative in nature. The bright side is that I smile a lot (and I'm not Canadian!). If Apple gives us the Guidance I'm looking for Tuesday afternoon, my natural disposition won't matter any more. Call walls (if they are in fact a contributor) will be higher than they have been for the past several months. After Oct Earnings/Guidance I'm going to have a smile like the "Joker".
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Post by Deleted on Jul 20, 2013 12:49:55 GMT -8
Gasp! A completely civil response to a less than civil comment. Is there a chance this concept could catch on in this forum? Maybe once all the trash gets filtered out from the board. It gets old seeing imaginary facts and lies day after day here. Greg's comment on his March quarter performance was akin to Paul Ryan claiming he ran a sub-3 hour marathon. Don't count him out.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 20, 2013 12:54:20 GMT -8
The 18.75 or so million IPAD number hast squirming. I've missed iPad numbers badly three of the past four quarters running ( but close lady quarter) , the mini is such a hit.. But cannibalization of the bigger model may not yet be fully cooked in. Then we have the explosion in the education space.
And the competition from the Surface , ( cough)
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 20, 2013 13:02:03 GMT -8
I think this is the first time you're reporting a higher EPS #. I noticed that Daniel Tello isn't playing (so far) and has anyone seen an EPS # from Turley Muller? Last quarter Daniel came in on the monday before. I expect the same this quarter
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Post by JDSoCal on Jul 20, 2013 13:10:29 GMT -8
LOL. Oh the phone calls, emails and PMs I've received this last week about that dichotomy. I have an optimist streak going down my back that is 3 miles wide. I don't seem to care how dark the clouds are today, tomorrow is another day. I struggle balancing that against realities that are negative in nature. The bright side is that I smile a lot (and I'm not Canadian!). If Apple gives us the Guidance I'm looking for Tuesday afternoon, my natural disposition won't matter any more. Call walls (if they are in fact a contributor) will be higher than they have been for the past several months. After Oct Earnings/Guidance I'm going to have a smile like the "Joker". Gregg, you can be optimistic on M-W. Go enjoy your GT40 on Th-F. That's when I'll be selling... I'd just like to see you add to your car collection, not reduce it. And I look forward to opening a car thread here someday to signal a new AAPL top.
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Post by cbingle on Jul 20, 2013 13:11:11 GMT -8
Turley Muller has 15.6 million IPads, that is all I saw in an article a few days ago.
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Post by rickag on Jul 20, 2013 13:14:25 GMT -8
We know Apple bought Locationary, and there was a rumor Apple was buying HopStop.
I read the WSJ has confirmed both purchases yesterday.
SIAP.
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