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Post by Deleted on Jul 20, 2013 18:56:04 GMT -8
It's as if Microsoft Bob was reincarnated as the entire Windows 8 OS. At least the RT version. Given a choice, Win7 is the winning OS here as it isn't optimized for a touch screen, which is dumb on a workstation anyway, and more costly. Reaching over the keyboard to touch a screen was ill-conceived 2-3 years ago and it's still true today.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 20, 2013 19:07:40 GMT -8
One thing about iTunes/software growth - can you expect the same rate of growth if iPad/iPhone/Mac growth "doesn't keep up"? Until recently, iOS devices _were_ growing well in excess of 30% YOY.
Yes, lag effect, snowball still rolling quite nicely downhill, but just asking.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 20, 2013 19:18:02 GMT -8
It was down 11% on Friday. MSFT earnings going forward will depend heavily on PC replacement cycle, and Win 8.1 should help. If not for enterprise, MSFT would be in a world of hurt. Five years out, who knows? I just don't see them being successful in mobile. RT is probably dead. In just the last week I read that Microsoft is making a big push to get remaining Enterprise customers OFF OF WinXP and onto Win8. At $200 a seat for the OS and associated services the author estimated $32 Billion in revenue for Microsoft. Microsoft's target date to complete this is April 2014. Good luck on that. I think Microsoft's days outside of Enterprise desktop/server OS is over. Everything they have tried outside of the niche has done nothing but cost them money. Shutting everything outside of OSs, services and Office down could reduce labor expense by half. It would be an ugly write down year, but the following year Microsoft could do very well. Oh, and because they would no longer be in protective mode of Windows, the should port Office to anything that makes sense, and put it on a severe diet.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 20, 2013 19:19:39 GMT -8
One thing about iTunes/software growth - can you expect the same rate of growth if iPad/iPhone/Mac growth "doesn't keep up"? Until recently, iOS devices _were_ growing well in excess of 30% YOY. Yes, lag effect, snowball still rolling quite nicely downhill, but just asking. Not worried. The 30% growth rate is relatively inelastic and correlates less with iPhone/iPad growth than you'd think. For example, the outlier for YOY iTunes growth was FQ1 2013, when we had solid iPhone and iPad growth but only 22% iTunes growth. The year before that, we had huge iPhone/iPad growth in FQ1 2012 and yet a reasonably moderate iTunes growth of 41% (FQ2 2012 reported 33% growth, suggesting it's not all that laggy). An average of 30% growth rate should hold this quarter. I just wish the margins came close to the rest of what Apple sells.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 20, 2013 19:24:57 GMT -8
It was down 11% on Friday. MSFT earnings going forward will depend heavily on PC replacement cycle, and Win 8.1 should help. If not for enterprise, MSFT would be in a world of hurt. Five years out, who knows? I just don't see them being successful in mobile. RT is probably dead. In just the last week I read that Microsoft is making a big push to get remaining Enterprise customers OFF OF WinXP and onto Win8. At $200 a seat for the OS and associated services the author estimated $32 Billion in revenue for Microsoft. Microsoft's target date to complete this is April 2014. Good luck on that. I think Microsoft's days outside of Enterprise desktop/server OS is over. Everything they have tried outside of the niche has done nothing but cost them money. Shutting everything outside of OSs, services and Office down could reduce labor expense by half. It would be an ugly write down year, but the following year Microsoft could do very well. Oh, and because they would no longer be in protective mode of Windows, the should port Office to anything that makes sense, and put it on a severe diet.I agree. WinXP users will more than likely stay put. And as enterprise software continues to migrate to the cloud, the reliance on Windows declines. Half of my enterprise software just requires a browser and a fast connection. Unfortunately, there are two POS software application I'm forced to use inside Win7 (using Parallels). But these legacy applications get updated slowly and am not sure they get moved to the cloud anytime soon -- much less get reprogrammed for any touch support.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 20, 2013 19:29:57 GMT -8
Windows XP users have little choice but to get off XP by the end of 2014. Microsoft won't support security updates past that point, and I bet they mean it this time.
Those XPers who stick around are just asking for trouble.
I'd guess a bunch of XP users are probably looking for a way to upgrade to Windows...7.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 20, 2013 19:42:30 GMT -8
Windows XP users have little choice but to get off XP by the end of 2014. Microsoft won't support security updates past that point, and I bet they mean it this time. Those XPers who stick around are just asking for trouble. I'd guess a bunch of XP users are probably looking for a way to upgrade to Windows... 7. I'm not convinced they will. My WAG is 30% upgrade, tops. On a good news front, I just glanced at OI from now until October. Although I don't have actual #s to support it (does anyone?), OI appears to have really dropped on AAPL, which is very positive IMO. This is probably also good news for TA, as removing an artificial influence may yield more normalcy to trading patterns.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 20, 2013 19:49:03 GMT -8
Windows XP users have little choice but to get off XP by the end of 2014. Microsoft won't support security updates past that point, and I bet they mean it this time. Those XPers who stick around are just asking for trouble. I'd guess a bunch of XP users are probably looking for a way to upgrade to Windows... 7. My company waited as long as we could before committing from XP to windows 7.. But it has to be done . You can't explain in 2015 why you didn't if xP gets compromised.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 20, 2013 20:15:10 GMT -8
On iTunes segment revenue:
Everyone trying to predict iTunes revenue simply needs to look at the trend in sequential differences for the last 10 quarters (using apples restated accounts).
Hopefully everyone spots the obvious trend on their own.
Don't worry about trying to use a year on year comparison, its only the sequential increases you need to worry about (iTunes segment revenue is generated by apples entire user base, and apples user base doesn't shrink).
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Post by appledoc on Jul 20, 2013 20:21:07 GMT -8
Maybe once all the trash gets filtered out from the board. It gets old seeing imaginary facts and lies day after day here. Greg's comment on his March quarter performance was akin to Paul Ryan claiming he ran a sub-3 hour marathon. AppleDoc, when do you get to the courses on bedside manner? I didn't realize I was practicing medicine here. I can only say something nicely so many times.
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Post by gtrplyr on Jul 20, 2013 21:54:37 GMT -8
Been a while since I've posted anything as I don't do TA or WAG's : )
BUT ... thought I'd post a interesting anecdote :
We have my wife's cousin's daughter staying with us for a few weeks this summer. She is 14 and lives just outside Rome ... it's her first trip ever to the U.S.
One of the first things she asked as for help with was getting a used iPhone ! She is over the top crazy about getting one and told us ALL of her friends would like one as well BUT not many have them as they are just too expensive over there. She will be perfectly happy with a iPhone4 and has not even mentioned any features that are "must have's" ... she just wants a iPhone. She has a Samsung currently and does not care for it ... guess which phones all of her friends have ? Yep ...Samedung.
If Apple does come out with a lower priced phone I'm sure it will be a better phone than the iPhone4 was ... and even if it isn't there is a HUGE market outside the U.S. who is dying for a opportunity to own a Apple product at a reasonable price. I'm certain Cook and company are well aware of this and I'm really hoping we will hear of this cheaper iPhone soon. Apple has won in the U.S. .... there is simply no denying this fact .... AT&T and Verizon's activations bear this out ... they have simply kicked everyone's collective asses over here. Now it's time to do the same for the rest of the world. If price was NOT an issue ... Samsung would have a very hard time competing with the Apple brand. It should be a very interesting end to this year.
Cheers to the longs .....
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 20, 2013 22:18:53 GMT -8
iPhone "go" as I like to call it has the potential to do an iPod/iPad mini number on the competition. That one product alone has me excited, even though it's still kind of a unicorn. ;D
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Post by Deleted on Jul 20, 2013 23:28:54 GMT -8
On a good news front, I just glanced at OI from now until October. Although I don't have actual #s to support it (does anyone?), OI appears to have really dropped on AAPL, which is very positive IMO. This is probably also good news for TA, as removing an artificial influence may yield more normalcy to trading patterns. It bounces around, but since June Expiry OI has fallen about 250,000 contracts. I attribute this to a great deal of uncertainty until after Earnings.
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Post by rob_london on Jul 21, 2013 0:37:28 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2013 3:54:48 GMT -8
On iTunes segment revenue: Everyone trying to predict iTunes revenue simply needs to look at the trend in sequential differences for the last 10 quarters (using apples restated accounts). Hopefully everyone spots the obvious trend on their own. Don't worry about trying to use a year on year comparison, its only the sequential increases you need to worry about (iTunes segment revenue is generated by apples entire user base, and apples user base doesn't shrink). Perfect timing by PED for this particular conversation: tech.fortune.cnn.com/2013/07/21/apple-itunes-revenue-q3/
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Post by artman1033 on Jul 21, 2013 4:57:25 GMT -8
SHARES OUTSTANDING (If you click on the DATES in the links, you will get to the 10-Qs or 10-K) What is the number we will read on Tuesday? YOUR ESTIMATE? I believe this is the main reason Oppie did not give EPS guidance, since he could not know how many shares would be outstanding on a future date.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2013 5:11:45 GMT -8
On iTunes segment revenue: Everyone trying to predict iTunes revenue simply needs to look at the trend in sequential differences for the last 10 quarters (using apples restated accounts). Hopefully everyone spots the obvious trend on their own. Don't worry about trying to use a year on year comparison, its only the sequential increases you need to worry about (iTunes segment revenue is generated by apples entire user base, and apples user base doesn't shrink). Perfect timing by PED for this particular conversation: tech.fortune.cnn.com/2013/07/21/apple-itunes-revenue-q3/Depends on how you have your data organized I suppose, but looking at things sequentially, it's easier to miss the growth patterns. For example, the growth from Q2 to Q3 in 2012 was only 1% (and a sequential decline of 2% in 2011). The growth from Q3 to Q4 in 2012 was 9% (7% in 2011). Yet YOY, they increased 37% in Q3 between 2012 and 2011 and 40% in Q4 between 2012 and 2011. Q4 2012 was the high water mark for YOY increase in the same quarter.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2013 5:15:47 GMT -8
SHARES OUTSTANDING (If you click on the DATES in the links, you will get to the 10-Qs or 10-K) What is the number we will read on Tuesday? YOUR ESTIMATE? I believe this is the main reason Oppie did not give EPS guidance, since he could not know how many shares would be outstanding on a future date. Yes and no. If you straight line the repurchase over 33 months (March 2013 - December 2015), it suggests approx. 10M shares this quarter. In other words, EPS increases approximately a penny for every 1M shares repurchased. Under my assumption, we get a total of 9 cents added to EPS next Tuesday. Now, if Apple accelerated its timing and doubled the repurchase # of shares, another 10 cents could well be the difference between a miss and a beat. My WAG is 936M shares O/S in this first full quarter of repurchasing shares. 10M is probably the minimum (and had better be at $420-$430 per share!) It will be very interesting to learn how many they bought back.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2013 5:26:00 GMT -8
Wow. I just looked at PED's site for the iTunes category. Peter Misek is at $5.6B There is no way in hell we get close to this.
Gregg, your # appears really high as well: Any particular reason you're estimating a 60% beat over last year's June quarter? That's double the historical amount.
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Post by artman1033 on Jul 21, 2013 6:15:32 GMT -8
SHARES OUTSTANDING (If you click on the DATES in the links, you will get to the 10-Qs or 10-K) What is the number we will read on Tuesday? YOUR ESTIMATE? I believe this is the main reason Oppie did not give EPS guidance, since he could not know how many shares would be outstanding on a future date. Yes and no. If you straight line the repurchase over 33 months (March 2013 - December 2015), it suggests approx. 10M shares this quarter. In other words, EPS increases approximately a penny for every 1M shares repurchased. Under my assumption, we get a total of 9 cents added to EPS next Tuesday. Now, if Apple accelerated its timing and doubled the repurchase # of shares, another 10 cents could well be the difference between a miss and a beat. My WAG is 936M shares O/S in this first full quarter of repurchasing shares. 10M is probably the minimum (and had better be at $420-$430 per share!) It will be very interesting to learn how many they bought back. For the record: My WAG and hope would be that Apple bought in EXCESS of $15 Billion shares of AAPL in the quarter. That would amount to a number over 35 million shares. That is the $ amount raised in the bond offering.
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Post by artman1033 on Jul 21, 2013 6:31:53 GMT -8
On iTunes segment revenue: Everyone trying to predict iTunes revenue simply needs to look at the trend in sequential differences for the last 10 quarters (using apples restated accounts). Hopefully everyone spots the obvious trend on their own. Don't worry about trying to use a year on year comparison, its only the sequential increases you need to worry about (iTunes segment revenue is generated by apples entire user base, and apples user base doesn't shrink). Perfect timing by PED for this particular conversation: tech.fortune.cnn.com/2013/07/21/apple-itunes-revenue-q3/Apple iTunes is run the way AMZN wants to run. Large volume, in the cloud, small profit or break even. AMZN revenues last quarter $16 Billion. Average Revenue WAG by analysts for Apple iTunes = $4 Billion. AMZN market cap = $139 Billion If Apple iTunes were to be valued at AMZN numbers, it would be valued at $35 Billion? I find Peter Misek's revenue forecast of $5.6 Billion to be very interesting.
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Post by rickag on Jul 21, 2013 7:02:03 GMT -8
Yes and no. If you straight line the repurchase over 33 months (March 2013 - December 2015), it suggests approx. 10M shares this quarter. In other words, EPS increases approximately a penny for every 1M shares repurchased. Under my assumption, we get a total of 9 cents added to EPS next Tuesday. Now, if Apple accelerated its timing and doubled the repurchase # of shares, another 10 cents could well be the difference between a miss and a beat. My WAG is 936M shares O/S in this first full quarter of repurchasing shares. 10M is probably the minimum (and had better be at $420-$430 per share!) It will be very interesting to learn how many they bought back. For the record: My WAG and hope would be that Apple bought in EXCESS of $15 Billion shares of AAPL in the quarter. That would amount to a number over 35 million shares. That is the $ amount raised in the bond offering. 35 million shares bought back would be great, and probably a smart move at AAPL's current pricing, but I doubt it. I am estimating 12 million shares bought back.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2013 7:36:00 GMT -8
Reading that made me cry crocodile tears.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2013 7:41:54 GMT -8
SHARES OUTSTANDING (If you click on the DATES in the links, you will get to the 10-Qs or 10-K) What is the number we will read on Tuesday? YOUR ESTIMATE? I believe this is the main reason Oppie did not give EPS guidance, since he could not know how many shares would be outstanding on a future date. 942 million Good observation. Probably the correct.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2013 7:48:45 GMT -8
Wow. I just looked at PED's site for the iTunes category. Peter Misek is at $5.6B There is no way in hell we get close to this. Gregg, your # appears really high as well: Any particular reason you're estimating a 60% beat over last year's June quarter? That's double the historical amount. One on my cross checks is average QoQ growth. That's what generated that number, which is a decline for FQ2.
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Post by applemuncher on Jul 21, 2013 7:49:44 GMT -8
For the record: My WAG and hope would be that Apple bought in EXCESS of $15 Billion shares of AAPL in the quarter. That would amount to a number over 35 million shares. That is the $ amount raised in the bond offering. 35 million shares bought back would be great, and probably a smart move at AAPL's current pricing, but I doubt it. I am estimating 12 million shares bought back. I would not be surprised if Apple bought back fewer than 7M shares last quarter.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2013 7:57:00 GMT -8
Wow. I just looked at PED's site for the iTunes category. Peter Misek is at $5.6B There is no way in hell we get close to this. Gregg, your # appears really high as well: Any particular reason you're estimating a 60% beat over last year's June quarter? That's double the historical amount. One on my cross checks is average QoQ growth. That's what generated that number, which is a decline for FQ2. FQ2 reported 4.1B. So your # reports huge growth.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2013 8:08:33 GMT -8
You made me go back and reread this thread and PED's request. We are talking about iTunes, Software, Services, and I mistakenly gave him my combined number for iTunes, Software, Services and Accessories.
My iTunes, Software, Services number is 3.886 Billion. Doubt I'll do well in that category. : )
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Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2013 8:23:26 GMT -8
You made me go back and reread this thread and PED's request. We are talking about iTunes, Software, Services, and I mistakenly gave him my combined number for iTunes, Software, Services and Accessories. My iTunes, Software, Services number is 3.886 Billion. Doubt I'll do well in that category. : ) Just email PED to correct it. He's already made one and may make another (Misek).
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 21, 2013 9:25:03 GMT -8
Im At $4.22
Mehhh
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