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Post by Deleted on Jul 22, 2013 14:24:44 GMT -8
Since Apple's new Guidance metric showed up, excepting the March quarter 2013, GM% has averaged 1.8 points above the bottom of Guided range. In the March quarter Apple took a Warranty set aside charge, precipitated by the Chinese government (everybody remembered the official Chinese government newspaper stories about "Apple doesn't care about Chinese customers). The set asides covered several prior quarters. The aggregate adjustment was taken, in its entirety, in FQ2/2013, eliminating the usual 1.8 point results over Guidance delta. For FQ3/2013 Apple Guided GM%of 36% on the low side. Adding in 1.8 points generates 37.8% GM. I'm modeling 37.50% as Mav says. Anything above that is possible, but risky. I feel the same way about EPS that exceeds $8.00. I'm in at $7.75.
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Post by artman1033 on Jul 22, 2013 14:27:49 GMT -8
I am very impressed by the way NFLX produced their earnings call
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Post by appledoc on Jul 22, 2013 14:37:50 GMT -8
I think the world would be a better place if PED stopped publishing the independent analyst numbers. No one uses them for anything anyway. These guys just end up as canon fodder for this whole smack down thing. Comes across as a big side show. Who bases investment decisions on this stuff anyway? Including independents certainly has not helped. I will continue to argue that they hurt the stock. So what if they beat the pros a few quarters over a year ago now. There are plenty of people on this board that do a better job than these goons.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 22, 2013 14:52:08 GMT -8
As a forecaster of Apple's financials Horace gets a C+ from me. Analyzing market factors and specific trend analysis he gets an A+. Have to agree -- Horace falls short on the numbers part.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 22, 2013 14:55:15 GMT -8
God forbid if I dropped my psuedo-anonymity and submitted an estimate to PED - I don't wanna be a goon! ;D
(I'm also super-nervous that I'm too high on revs and EPS.)
EDIT: Last call for home game numbers from AFB2 members! You can post 'em at the Fiscal Q3 estimates thread.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 22, 2013 15:00:21 GMT -8
Careful out there tomorrow, everybody.
I have absolutely no idea what'll happen, up or down. Puts or calls or whatever (take care with the IV deflation on those), just make sure you've calculated your risk. Best of luck to all.
(Personally, I'm just holding my small-ish Sep13 butterfly right now.)
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Jul 22, 2013 15:16:25 GMT -8
One day left to earnings. Stock up slightly in PM ...should be interesting to say the least. HOWEVER, the big, big news of the day is that Kate Middleton when into labor! Here's wishing Kate and Will good luck .... and good luck to all here...but especially my favorites, the longs! Those Brits do get excited...a big yawn here. I do predict it's going to be a boy or a girl, however. I'm going with hermaphrodite. With big ears. Anyway, I hope all of you are able to have restful sleep tonight, or at least get drunk enough to do so...
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 22, 2013 15:40:13 GMT -8
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 22, 2013 15:44:26 GMT -8
Those Brits do get excited...a big yawn here. I do predict it's going to be a boy or a girl, however. I'm going with hermaphrodite. With big ears. Anyway, I hope all of you are able to have restful sleep tonight, or at least get drunk enough to do so... It's a boy and the name should be Jon-Luc. As for tomorrow, I could resurrect my old "nervous as Donald Trump's hair in a windstorm" canard, but better to be sober and vigilent this time around. I am in at $7.74. I think Iphones will be a bit stronger than general forecast, Ipads a bit weaker. GM? I'm all over the place.... I would love for Apple to have bought back 12+ million shares this last quarter. Such excellent prices!
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 22, 2013 15:50:56 GMT -8
I think the world would be a better place if PED stopped publishing the independent analyst numbers. No one uses them for anything anyway. These guys just end up as canon fodder for this whole smack down thing. Comes across as a big side show. Who bases investment decisions on this stuff anyway? Including independents certainly has not helped. I will continue to argue that they hurt the stock. So what if they beat the pros a few quarters over a year ago now. There are plenty of people on this board that do a better job than these goons. Some of the independents do great work with solid spreadsheets and deep analysis. Sadly, some others just pull numbers out of their....well, somewhere. A great example is the fact that some of these folks have estimates for Itunes/software/services in the quarter just past at levels that would have you believe the number of IOS devices has dropped in the past year...or people have stopped using them for music, books and video. Every outside firm indicates growth in these segments, soou can't understand why this group of analysts would think that way, unless they just knocked down each revenue catagory by some formula without going behind the numbers... I'm no expert on Apple numbers (but ask me about Warp Drive!) but for some of those folks to be listed in a respected website like PED's bothers me.... And Gregg, they weren't all wrong for the same reason. There were independents who just added 15% to everything they had forecast before and said...let's go. It takes more than that, I think.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 22, 2013 16:13:53 GMT -8
Some of the independents do great work with solid spreadsheets and deep analysis. Sadly, some others just pull numbers out of their....well, somewhere. A great example is the fact that some of these folks have estimates for Itunes/software/services in the quarter just past at levels that would have you believe the number of IOS devices has dropped in the past year...or people have stopped using them for music, books and video. Every outside firm indicates growth in these segments, soou can't understand why this group of analysts would think that way, unless they just knocked down each revenue catagory by some formula without going behind the numbers... I'm no expert on Apple numbers (but ask me about Warp Drive!) but for some of those folks to be listed in a respected website like PED's bothers me.... And Gregg, they weren't all wrong for the same reason. There were independents who just added 15% to everything they had forecast before and said...let's go. It takes more than that, I think. I've suggested to Robert he put handcuffs on the dart throwers, who know less than they should, especially going public on PED's site. Sadly, it looks like Daniel Tello isn't going to put up numbers this quarter. I can't say I blame him, what with all the rank amateurs in attendance.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 22, 2013 16:16:02 GMT -8
I'm going with hermaphrodite. With big ears. Anyway, I hope all of you are able to have restful sleep tonight, or at least get drunk enough to do so... It's a boy and the name should be Jon-Luc. As for tomorrow, I could resurrect my old "nervous as Donald Trump's hair in a windstorm" canard, but better to be sober and vigilent this time around. I am in at $7.74. I think Iphones will be a bit stronger than general forecast, Ipads a bit weaker. GM? I'm all over the place.... I would love for Apple to have bought back 12+ million shares this last quarter. Such excellent prices! What, me worry?
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Post by capablanca on Jul 22, 2013 16:22:49 GMT -8
Tim Cook better have a "great" (ie solid growth) 2014 or he is out of CEO, because his 2013 is looking simply put as weak/bad. Baring some health problem, Tim Cook is still Apple CEO five years from now.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 22, 2013 16:24:57 GMT -8
Tim Cook better have a "great" (ie solid growth) 2014 or he is out of CEO, because his 2013 is looking simply put as weak/bad. Baring some health problem, Tim Cook is still Apple CEO five years from now. +1. Some here are attempting to blame Tim Cook for all that ails WS.
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Post by artman1033 on Jul 22, 2013 16:36:58 GMT -8
It's a boy and the name should be Jon-Luc. As for tomorrow, I could resurrect my old "nervous as Donald Trump's hair in a windstorm" canard, but better to be sober and vigilent this time around. I am in at $7.74. I think Iphones will be a bit stronger than general forecast, Ipads a bit weaker. GM? I'm all over the place.... I would love for Apple to have bought back 12+ million shares this last quarter. Such excellent prices! What, me worry? How about this hair?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 22, 2013 16:38:24 GMT -8
Barring some health problem, Tim Cook is still Apple CEO five years from now. +1. Some here are attempting to blame Tim Cook for all that ails Apple."Fixed that for you" x2. ;D
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Post by Lstream on Jul 22, 2013 16:45:28 GMT -8
Some of the independents do great work with solid spreadsheets and deep analysis. I'm no expert on Apple numbers (but ask me about Warp Drive!) but for some of those folks to be listed in a respected website like PED's bothers me.... Agree entirely with the thought re some of this stuff ending up on PED's web site. I think it costs him credibility to even call some of these guys analysts. Regarding the good work, I agree that some put in a good effort with solid spreadsheets. But they are analyzing a complex subject with poor visibility. The independents have no access to management like the pros do. So the entire exercise is at best a series of extrapolations and guess work. And for what? The ego gratification attached to being published on PED's site? I am all for these estimates for the home game. But no one in their right mind should make a single investment decision based upon amateur analysis. I don't get the point of publishing these estimates.
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Post by nathanstevens on Jul 22, 2013 16:58:45 GMT -8
I feel like Phil on the eve of Groundhog Day. Will it be Christmas in July or 3 more months of shit?
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Post by appledoc on Jul 22, 2013 17:54:47 GMT -8
There's significant upside/downside that can come tomorrow from a technical view. Nothing below right now, except for the 20 day at 417 and the 200 week at 391. Fortunately there is a large bunch of moving averages at 430-431 that should they fall, we would have a ton of room to run.
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Post by prazan on Jul 22, 2013 18:45:45 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 22, 2013 18:51:49 GMT -8
I can't forget that Fitz kinda-sorta recommended AAPL at 700. And THEN said stay away. There's also a line of thought that a triple-test of that 380-390 or whatever zone isn't buyable at all. More like shortable. If the news is good and AAPL sells off anyway, there might be a hidden buying opportunity in there somewhere, but I don't think AAPL will trade that way if news is indeed good enough. We'll all know it when we see it, or something like that.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 22, 2013 18:58:42 GMT -8
Here's an out-there, yet somewhat more convincing reason why AAPL can't bottom out too much more beyond a certain point - Apple has around $45B in cash it can use to buy back shares. Something tells me AAPL 250, even 300 isn't in the cards (though I fuzzily recall some sell short guy targeting a level around there). A yield of 4-5% and the imminent threat of Apple buying back 15-20% of the company at those levels should probably stave off any "death spiral" for a perfectly healthy company, unless results and guidance turn out truly dismal.
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Post by pauls on Jul 22, 2013 19:04:52 GMT -8
I feel like Phil on the eve of Groundhog Day. Will it be Christmas in July or 3 more months of shit? +1
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Post by Deleted on Jul 22, 2013 19:21:45 GMT -8
I think the world would be a better place if PED stopped publishing the independent analyst numbers. No one uses them for anything anyway. These guys just end up as canon fodder for this whole smack down thing. Comes across as a big side show. Who bases investment decisions on this stuff anyway? I would agree that many, independents and Pros alike, shouldn't be allowed to publish their thoughts. But that is for the reader to decide, not me, or anyone else. The same would be true of posters on this site and many others, and media outlets like CNBC, FNN, FNC, CNN, ABC, CBS, NBC, Seeking Alpha, The Motley Fool and a host of others. That said, its especially appalling when the independents were consistently more accurate than the Pros (who had education, training, experience and vastly superior resources and access to management). That was up until FQ3 2012 Earnings Report and Guidance. The independents (myself included) were woefully unprepared for managements change in Guidance metrics. It has taken the independents (the competent ones) longer to recognize the change than it did the pros. I think giving the independents credit for AAPL's performance since last September is a huge over estimation of their influence. On the reverse side of the coin, if "No one uses them for anything anyway", where's the harm? I think talk like that comes from investment pain looking for an expression outlet.
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Post by prazan on Jul 22, 2013 19:29:29 GMT -8
I can't forget that Fitz kinda-sorta recommended AAPL at 700. And THEN said stay away. There's also a line of thought that a triple-test of that 380-390 or whatever zone isn't buyable at all. More like shortable. If the news is good and AAPL sells off anyway, there might be a hidden buying opportunity in there somewhere, but I don't think AAPL will trade that way if news is indeed good enough. We'll all know it when we see it, or something like that. That's why I found his take interesting. I certainly would be careful around 390, under the concept that a triple bottom isn't likely to hold. And I'm hoping that this never becomes an issue. It's also possible that we'll get a half-filled cup tomorrow, or a half-empty cup, and the market will respond according to its whims. GOOG bounced back quickly after their half-cup, and NFLX looks to do the same. Apple is held to different standards, however.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 22, 2013 19:30:53 GMT -8
I love free speech but the word 'analyst' carries some connotations of experience, due diligence and insight. If you carry a CFA you have met some standards of financial analysis, for example. CPA's are accredited in accounting rules and JDs... Well, they can do anything!
But to be called an analyst on a website that Carries Fortune's nameplate.. Some just don't deserve the mantle
Jmho
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Post by Lstream on Jul 22, 2013 19:35:31 GMT -8
I think the world would be a better place if PED stopped publishing the independent analyst numbers. No one uses them for anything anyway. These guys just end up as canon fodder for this whole smack down thing. Comes across as a big side show. Who bases investment decisions on this stuff anyway? I would agree that many, independents and Pros alike, shouldn't be allowed to publish their thoughts. But that is for the reader to decide, not me, or anyone else. The same would be true of posters on this site and many others, and media outlets like CNBC, FNN, FNC, CNN, ABC, CBS, NBC, Seeking Alpha, The Motley Fool and a host of others. That said, its especially appalling when the independents were consistently more accurate than the Pros (who had education, training, experience and vastly superior resources and access to management). That was up until FQ3 2012 Earnings Report and Guidance. The independents (myself included) were woefully unprepared for managements change in Guidance metrics. It has taken the independents (the competent ones) longer to recognize the change than it did the pros. I think giving the independents credit for AAPL's performance since last September is a huge over estimation of their influence. On the reverse side of the coin, if "No one uses them for anything anyway", where's the harm? I think talk like that comes from investment pain looking for an expression outlet. I have been on other Web sites, and the Braeburn guys who form the bulk of the independents are basically laughed at as being completely out-to-lunch due to these estimates. I don't think it helps Apple to have its biggest supporters being seen as jokes. But in the overall scheme of things, it is not that big a deal I guess. I am not giving them credit for what happened to the stock. I just see no useful purpose in their estimates being published. And no, this is not investment pain talking. I don't like the fall from $700 anymore than the next person, but there is almost no conceivable scenario where Apple doesn't turn out to be the investment of a lifetime for me.
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Post by Lstream on Jul 22, 2013 19:37:53 GMT -8
I love free speech but the word 'analyst' carries some connotations of experience, due diligence and insight. If you carry a CFA you have met some standards of financial analysis, for example. CPA's are accredited in accounting rules and JDs... Well, they can do anything! But to be called an analyst on a website that Carries Fortune's nameplate.. Some just don't deserve the mantle Jmho Agree entirely. Reminds me when I was a kid with a train set. Called myself an engineer. An analyst title is supposed to carry some actual credentials.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 22, 2013 19:43:22 GMT -8
Other than a general apprehension about tomorrow's report, I have no idea what's going on with options.
Since June expiry AAPL has shed ~900,000 contracts to 2.293 Million (about 28% of total OI on June expiry).
The lowest OI I've seen, going back to last September was ~ 2.4 Million. Average during that period is 3.365 Million, with a high of 4.6 Million. That's 2X today's OI. Lots of indecision out there.
Pray to your favorite deity that Apple's numbers and Guidance are strong. Think of what all that sideline money could do to AAPL if they are.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 22, 2013 19:50:10 GMT -8
I'm glad oi is down.
May the trend continue!
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