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Post by Deleted on Jul 22, 2013 20:13:17 GMT -8
I love free speech but the word 'analyst' carries some connotations of experience, due diligence and insight. If you carry a CFA you have met some standards of financial analysis, for example. CPA's are accredited in accounting rules and JDs... Well, they can do anything! But to be called an analyst on a website that Carries Fortune's nameplate.. Some just don't deserve the mantle Jmho I've long thought that wall paper looks nice but doesn't have as much bearing on one's skill set, as the paper would have you believe. As testimony to that belief I point you to the banking crises of 1980 and 2008, the colossal failures of the S&L industry, AIG, Enron, Global Crossing, Worldcom, GM, Chrysler, Merrill Lynch, Bear Stearns, DELL, RIMM, Nokia, Nortel, DEC, CPQ, Palm, Countrywide Mortgage and the several near death experiences of BA. You couldn't get all the MBAs employed by that limited group into all NFL football stadiums at the same time. And we're only talking about the highly visible failures.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 22, 2013 20:19:10 GMT -8
I'm glad oi is down. May the trend continue! Yes! Re: PED's Analyst Smackdown. To be completely fair, the independents have company with a few dolts with affiliations to banks or institutions. Alex Guana, Glen Yeung, Peter Misek, Christophe Caso....these guys should be better than they are but without more accountability, they don't seem to care about their reputations.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 22, 2013 20:40:52 GMT -8
VXAPL has flatlined - don't know the last time this happened on a lead up to earnings.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 22, 2013 20:57:46 GMT -8
Careful out there tomorrow, everybody. I have absolutely no idea what'll happen, up or down. Puts or calls or whatever (take care with the IV deflation on those), just make sure you've calculated your risk. Best of luck to all. (Personally, I'm just holding my small-ish Sep13 butterfly right now.) In the "I have a dream" category: If I dial in 30M iPhone (vs. my 27M), EPS pops to $8.33. And with supportive guidance, we're off to the races. It's not out of the question at all.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 22, 2013 21:08:21 GMT -8
It's tough for me to play very far outside Oppenheimer's guidance sandbox until I see an honest-to-goodness beat on revs AND EPS. I'm already out on a limb with iPhone.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 22, 2013 21:16:33 GMT -8
VXAPL has flatlined - don't know the last time this happened on a lead up to earnings. So let's look at what we have with less than 16 hours to THE conference call. WS has been describing Apple/AAPL as a 2nd half story since before April. July started the 2nd half. Trading volume is at its lowest since I began tracking it November 2004. OI is down 50% from September 2012. VIX has flatlined. AAPL has traded in a flat range of about $40 (5% of either side of value) since April. Pre-earnings run up tried but failed. There are no buyers, but there aren't any sellers either (trading volume). We've had a bit of upgrading, but no down grading. It looks to me that there isn't enough confidence in one way, or the other. Investors want to believe, just as they did last July, October and January. April gave them hope, but they're waiting for this earnings/conference call to push them over the edge, one way or the other. Now here is what I find important, EVERYBODY has known since April that June quarter earnings was going to be a down YoY compare. So why the hesitancy to sell? Guidance. The money is waiting for Apple to say, "We're OK and will be growing in the September quarter". The 2nd half (FQ4/2013 & FQ1/2014) story come true.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 22, 2013 21:21:38 GMT -8
Careful out there tomorrow, everybody. I have absolutely no idea what'll happen, up or down. Puts or calls or whatever (take care with the IV deflation on those), just make sure you've calculated your risk. Best of luck to all. (Personally, I'm just holding my small-ish Sep13 butterfly right now.) In the "I have a dream" category: If I dial in 30M iPhone (vs. my 27M), EPS pops to $8.33. And with supportive guidance, we're off to the races. It's not out of the question at all. Same thing happens to me, but my 'pop' is to $8.01. It doesn't matter, $8.01 or $8.33, they're both below last year's $9.32. This conference call is going to be about the future. In fact, I'll wager that management spends an abnormal amount of time talking about FQ4.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 22, 2013 22:14:59 GMT -8
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Post by rickag on Jul 23, 2013 3:31:26 GMT -8
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