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Post by appledoc on Jul 23, 2013 9:10:50 GMT -8
via Twitter: Monthly visitors to Zaky's Bullish Cross website: October 2012: 350,352 July 2013: 17,024 Is that a contrarian indicator? It's an indication that he cost himself and his subscribers millions of dollars because he refused to believe he was wrong.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 23, 2013 9:15:01 GMT -8
via Twitter: Monthly visitors to Zaky's Bullish Cross website: October 2012: 350,352 July 2013: 17,024 Is that a contrarian indicator? It's an indication that he cost himself and his subscribers millions of dollars because he refused to believe he was wrong. Yeah, he had a bad case of Thurmanitis.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jul 23, 2013 9:16:15 GMT -8
I don't think I've ever seen such low volume on earnings day.
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Post by podboy on Jul 23, 2013 9:20:48 GMT -8
I don't think I've ever seen such low volume on earnings day. You're right, everyone is on sitting on their hands until after 4:30. I'm nervous.
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mark
fire starter
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Post by mark on Jul 23, 2013 9:22:53 GMT -8
I don't think I've ever seen such low volume on earnings day. It's insanely low! No supply? No demand? Everyone sitting on their hands? Out on vacation for summer?
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Post by calidagirl on Jul 23, 2013 9:28:14 GMT -8
It's an indication that he cost himself and his subscribers millions of dollars because he refused to believe he was wrong. Yeah, he had a bad case of Thurmanitis. I'll drink to that........... lol
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Post by tuffett on Jul 23, 2013 9:30:10 GMT -8
via Twitter: Monthly visitors to Zaky's Bullish Cross website: October 2012: 350,352 July 2013: 17,024 Is that a contrarian indicator? It's an indication that he cost himself and his subscribers millions of dollars because he refused to believe he was wrong. Not to mention very arrogantly calling out Doug Kass using some ridiculous forward EPS numbers to back up his argument.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 23, 2013 9:45:13 GMT -8
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Post by lovemyipad on Jul 23, 2013 9:50:46 GMT -8
His reasoning is insane. He leads off saying 390 is going to hold or it isn't, but then recommends buying any dips? How does that make sense? There's a reason why triple bottoms don't ever hold, but we don't have to talk about that. My WAG is if 410 breaks, then we'll see new lows. I can translate Fitzpatrick-speak. ;D I like the guy a lot -- I subscribed to his Stock Market Mentor for about a year (pre-Avi) until I felt I'd learned everything he had to teach me, and it was no longer worth the $ since I can read a chart as well as he can. Dan is big on trading ranges -- that whole "expect the range to hold until it doesn't" thing. His trading style is buying at the bottom of ranges and selling at the top, with an emphasis on using/respecting stops, which is key with him. So he's basically thinking whatever the earnings reaction, it's going to be faded. Dips bought; rips sold. For that reason, he's less inclined to buy a supposed breakout if we pop on earnings. Agree with you re: triple bottoms. That said, we may possibly fill that 398-401-ish gap and bounce there. I will definitely buy a crapload at that gap fill -- and if 390-ish breaks, then I'll hedge to the gills.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jul 23, 2013 9:52:07 GMT -8
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Post by BillH on Jul 23, 2013 9:52:38 GMT -8
via Twitter: Monthly visitors to Zaky's Bullish Cross website: October 2012: 350,352 July 2013: 17,024 Is that a contrarian indicator? It's an indication that he cost himself and his subscribers millions of dollars because he refused to believe he was wrong. It's an indication that he cost himself and his subscribers millions of dollars because he refused to believedidn't know he was wrong. That makes him just about the same as everyone else here and elsewhere. Some have been right/clairvoyant on occasion but none have continually. Feel free to correct me if this is mistaken.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 23, 2013 9:56:48 GMT -8
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Post by macwire on Jul 23, 2013 10:08:11 GMT -8
Just feels like a depressing day lol.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 23, 2013 10:18:50 GMT -8
It's an indication that he cost himself and his subscribers millions of dollars because he refused to believe he was wrong. Not to mention very arrogantly calling out Doug Kass using some ridiculous forward EPS numbers to back up his argument. I did the same thing. I wouldn't say he was arrogant about that, he was wrong. We all agreed with the EPS estimates back then. None of us recognized the change in management's guidance metric, and couldn't believe it when it appeared that Apple missed its numbers (July 2012 report). Casting dispersions about Zaky's forecasts today (in hindsight) is just as wrong, because we all cheered him when he did it. We all had blinders on.
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Post by applemuncher on Jul 23, 2013 10:19:12 GMT -8
Just noticed this headline on my CNBC iPhone app: "Apple expected to report losses." What a bunch of crap.
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stub
Member
The fix is in. Be patient. Don't panic.
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Post by stub on Jul 23, 2013 10:26:55 GMT -8
it's actually probably good news that there's another negative Goldman article concerning the AAPL earnings report. They almost always say the opposite of what happens remember waht happened last time (April) with the "... Apple won't announce a raise in the price of dividend payment's ect..." It's like my girlfriend says (almost) every night before we go to bed... "When a stuffed pony says 'no', he really means yes!" : D
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Post by prazan on Jul 23, 2013 10:29:49 GMT -8
It's an indication that he cost himself and his subscribers millions of dollars because he refused to believe he was wrong. Not to mention very arrogantly calling out Doug Kass using some ridiculous forward EPS numbers to back up his argument. I don't recall reading the views of many who supported Kass's view at the time. I thought his call was a self-promotional stunt. I think the word that best describes Mr. Zaky's view is "hubris."
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Post by prazan on Jul 23, 2013 10:38:03 GMT -8
His reasoning is insane. He leads off saying 390 is going to hold or it isn't, but then recommends buying any dips? How does that make sense? There's a reason why triple bottoms don't ever hold, but we don't have to talk about that. My WAG is if 410 breaks, then we'll see new lows. I can translate Fitzpatrick-speak. ;D I like the guy a lot -- I subscribed to his Stock Market Mentor for about a year (pre-Avi) until I felt I'd learned everything he had to teach me, and it was no longer worth the $ since I can read a chart as well as he can. Dan is big on trading ranges -- that whole "expect the range to hold until it doesn't" thing. His trading style is buying at the bottom of ranges and selling at the top, with an emphasis on using/respecting stops, which is key with him. So he's basically thinking whatever the earnings reaction, it's going to be faded. Dips bought; rips sold. For that reason, he's less inclined to buy a supposed breakout if we pop on earnings. Agree with you re: triple bottoms. That said, we may possibly fill that 398-401-ish gap and bounce there. I will definitely buy a crapload at that gap fill -- and if 390-ish breaks, then I'll hedge to the gills. Interesting to note that his approach is diametrically opposed to that of the T3 Live crew, which is largely based on buying stocks when prices break out of a pattern and above a certain level. It's difficult to follow unless you're at your computer all day, trading. Do you think Fitzger... er... I mean Fitzpatrick is geared more toward the intermediate time frame investor?
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Post by appledoc on Jul 23, 2013 10:43:14 GMT -8
His reasoning is insane. He leads off saying 390 is going to hold or it isn't, but then recommends buying any dips? How does that make sense? There's a reason why triple bottoms don't ever hold, but we don't have to talk about that. My WAG is if 410 breaks, then we'll see new lows. I can translate Fitzpatrick-speak. ;D I like the guy a lot -- I subscribed to his Stock Market Mentor for about a year (pre-Avi) until I felt I'd learned everything he had to teach me, and it was no longer worth the $ since I can read a chart as well as he can. Dan is big on trading ranges -- that whole "expect the range to hold until it doesn't" thing. His trading style is buying at the bottom of ranges and selling at the top, with an emphasis on using/respecting stops, which is key with him. So he's basically thinking whatever the earnings reaction, it's going to be faded. Dips bought; rips sold. For that reason, he's less inclined to buy a supposed breakout if we pop on earnings. Agree with you re: triple bottoms. That said, we may possibly fill that 398-401-ish gap and bounce there. I will definitely buy a crapload at that gap fill -- and if 390-ish breaks, then I'll hedge to the gills. Makes more sense now. Agree with the gap fill. Might see that in AH today following earnings but before the CC.
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Post by tuffett on Jul 23, 2013 10:43:47 GMT -8
He can blame the market all he likes but he was basing his valuation on 47% earnings growth for FY2013. He got the fundamentals completely wrong. Hey, we all did, but my expectations (and that of many others) were nowhere near as lofty as his.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 23, 2013 10:44:37 GMT -8
Meanwhile, back on the real world, where real events and real experience should translate into real earnings and real stock market appreciation......Apple again leads in advertising impressions and revenues. 9to5mac.com/2013/07/23/report-appleios-continues-lead-as-top-mobile-advertising-platform-by-impressions-revenue/"Opera Mediaworks, the “world’s leading mobile advertising platform”, is out today with its report covering the state of mobile advertising for Q2 2013. Using data from the over 35 billion mobile ad impressions its platform handles each month, Opera Mediaworks gives some insight into Apple’s dominance with iOS and its huge lead over Android when it comes to revenue & impressions from tablets. Apple continued to lead as the top platform in terms of monetization, with 44% of all ad impressions and close to half of total revenue (49.36%). Its lead over Android is largely due to the success of the iPad, however, as removing tablets from the equation puts Android smartphones and the iPhone neck and neck:" And this via the Loop: together. iPad hits a new high in Web share usage; Samsung hits a new low A new report from Chitika on Tuesday shows that Apple’s iPad is still growing its Web share usage. The iPad is now at 84.3%, its highest mark since the beginning of 2013. The iPad grew by almost two percentage points from 82.4% to reach its new high, according to Chitika. This marks the second straight month of gains for Apple. Following in second and third place are the Amazon Kindle Fire and the Samsung Galaxy family of products, respectively. The Kindle has dropped its share for the past few months going from 7.4% down to 5.7% for the most recent report. Samsung hasn’t done any better. It dropped from 4.7% to 4.2% in the most recent report. I ask the same question every time I see reports like this—What are people doing with those other tablets? Clearly, they are not going online. www.loopinsight.com/
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Post by prazan on Jul 23, 2013 10:47:38 GMT -8
He can blame the market all he likes but he was basing his valuation on 44% earnings growth for FY2013. He got the fundamentals completely wrong. Hey, we all did, but my expectations (and that of many others) were nowhere near as lofty as his. Here's a line from Alexander Elder's TRADING FOR A LIVING: "Gurus always come from the fringes of market analysis."
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Post by tuffett on Jul 23, 2013 10:53:22 GMT -8
Not to mention very arrogantly calling out Doug Kass using some ridiculous forward EPS numbers to back up his argument. I did the same thing. I wouldn't say he was arrogant about that, he was wrong. We all agreed with the EPS estimates back then. None of us recognized the change in management's guidance metric, and couldn't believe it when it appeared that Apple missed its numbers (July 2012 report). Casting dispersions about Zaky's forecasts today (in hindsight) is just as wrong, because we all cheered him when he did it. We all had blinders on. True to an extent. I didn't agree with the earnings projections (or it would have been even more heavily invested) but I did agree with the basic premise of his articles (and still do). I would never had such a huge chunk of other people's money in short term spreads, that much is for sure.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 23, 2013 11:01:27 GMT -8
Well, don't blame Zaky for GOOG's ridiculous 33% rise. Blame WS for rewarding this johnny-one-note of a company that grew its EPS a paltry 3% for the 4 quarters ended June 2013 as compared to the prior four quarters. What a flipping joke the stock market has become with inflating the stock of undeserving companies. It's an unmitigated travesty.
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Post by po1nt on Jul 23, 2013 11:14:31 GMT -8
At this point, the lower the expectations the better!
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Post by prazan on Jul 23, 2013 11:18:28 GMT -8
Good luck to everybody except the shorts. I will be away from my computer from 4:00 p.m. on, but I'll be checking on earnings and reaction to earnings exclusively through this site. Thanks in advance to everyone who posts information here. You'll have at least one avid reader.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 23, 2013 11:32:51 GMT -8
DEAGOL, MY MAIN MAN ! !His estimates for the June quarter just ended and the September quarter coming up look like very close cousins of my own estimates. Our main differences are in share count. I left a comment explaining my thoughts on that.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 23, 2013 11:35:13 GMT -8
Well, don't blame Zaky for GOOG's ridiculous 33% rise. Blame WS for rewarding this johnny-one-note of a company that grew its EPS a paltry 3% for the 4 quarters ended June 2013 as compared to the prior four quarters. What a flipping joke the stock market has become with inflating the stock of undeserving companies. It's an unmitigated travesty. I agree. I think a lot of people, in their eagerness to fault someone focus in on the wrong party.
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Post by zebrum on Jul 23, 2013 11:41:10 GMT -8
this day would have been a lot brighter if they had released a Haswell retina pro and a retina iPad mini by now.
and the dev center is still down WTF tim cook??
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Post by appledoc on Jul 23, 2013 11:44:16 GMT -8
It's an indication that he cost himself and his subscribers millions of dollars because he refused to believe he was wrong. It's an indication that he cost himself and his subscribers millions of dollars because he refused to believedidn't know he was wrong. That makes him just about the same as everyone else here and elsewhere. Some have been right/clairvoyant on occasion but none have continually. Feel free to correct me if this is mistaken. Holding millions of dollars in short term bull call spreads through a massive multi-month sell off is what I would consider a refusal to believe one is wrong.
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