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Post by Deleted on Jul 24, 2013 0:55:37 GMT -8
Should be a good day for the longs today One hour into premarket and AAPL is 4% higher than yesterday's close.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 24, 2013 0:55:53 GMT -8
Eh?
I only see a single revenue figure given as guidance for the first 3 quarters on your list, and apple bet that number every time.
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FQ32012:
Guidance: "looking ahead to the third fiscal quarter, we expect revenue of about $34 billion"
Actual: $35.023 billion
(+ $1.023 billion above guidance)
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FQ42012:
Guidance: "looking ahead to the fourth fiscal quarter, we expect revenue of about $34 billion"
Actual: $35.965 billion
(+ $1.965 billion above guidance)
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FQ12013:
Guidance: "looking ahead to the first fiscal quarter of 2013, we expect revenue of about $52 billion"
Actual: $54.511 billion
(+ $2.511 billion above guidance) --------------------
FQ22013:
Guidance: "revenue between $41 billion and $43 billion"
Actual: $43.603 billion
(+ $603 million above max guidance)
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FQ32013:
Guidance: "revenue between $33.5 billion and $35.5 billion"
Actual: $35.323 billion
(- $177 million below max guidance)
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I think its obvious apple has changed guidance metric when it switched to giving a range - I think everyone here agrees that it is now more accurate. But that guidance method has only been for the last 2 quarters results and so I think it is too early to say that it is or isn't likely to beat max guidance going forward.
For instance today we heard on the conference call that apple experienced an unexpectedly large revenue drop in Hong Kong, and didn't know why. Its very likely that if the Hong Kong region held up as Apple expected, that revenue for the quarter would have come in above maximum guidance once again for the twelfth quarter in a row.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 24, 2013 0:59:56 GMT -8
Say wha? Apple has given exactly three "new methodology" quarters' worth of guidance, not five.
I agree with burgess. The methodology has changed, but yes, Apple not beating its own guidance on revs is a first in a long while.
OTOH, that's no bad thing. It validates Oppenheimer's approach ("yes, this really is a range we expect to report within"), and will cause WS analysts to near-instinctually adjust their estimates downward.
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SomeJuan
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Taking a nap…
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Post by SomeJuan on Jul 24, 2013 1:15:41 GMT -8
Pulling out my very best Jean Dixon… Now may very well be a good time to buy.
and i tread softly on that statement.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 24, 2013 2:31:14 GMT -8
From PED: tech.fortune.cnn.com/2013/07/24/apple-analysts-q3-2013-2/Katy Huberty, Morgan Stanley: Raising Estimates on iPhone and Gross Margin Upside. "With an iPhone beat and better than feared September quarter guidance, consensus estimates are likely bottoming out for the first time in five quarters. We see near-term share price upside on the back of positive supply chain data points ahead of the fall product launches. Strong iPhone sales point to stickiness of ecosystem as Y/Y unit growth accelerated to 20% (from 7% in March Q) despite a channel inventory reduction. US, Japan, and UK all grew iPhone sales north of 50%." Walter Piecyk, BTIG: Does Apple's Guidance Imply a September Product Launch? "We don't think that Apple can hit its newly issued revenue guidance for the September quarter unless it launches new products. After delivering $35 billion in revenue in the June quarter, management guided to $34-$37 billion next quarter. Revenue would more typically drop multiple billions if the company had no new products planned. With September quickly approaching, this could be the start of a string of new product announcements that increase investor confidence in Apple's ability to return to EPS growth next year." Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray: What Has Changed In Our Thinking. 1. The iPhone franchise is in better shape than we previously believed, albeit at a lower ASP. We estimate that iPhone unit growth for the high end version was 10% y/y, up 5% for the mid priced version, and up 50% for the low end version. We see this as evidence that the lower to mid priced phone market is significant in size and can move the needle for Apple despite the negative impact of ASPs which were down 5% q/q. We estimate ASPs on the iPhone 5 and 4S were unchanged and ASPs were down 15% on the iPhone 4 in emerging markets triggering the spike in demand. 2. The gross margin guidance of 36-37% was ahead of our expectations of 35-36% implying signs of stability for the first time in 5 quarters due in part to more favorable pricing on LCDs outweighing the negative impact of higher DRAM pricing. 3. iPad missed Street unit estimates by 14% and was down 3% y/y (both adjusted for channel fill). While iPad did have a hard comp from last year's iPad 3 first full quarter in Jun-12, the shortfall was a disappointment. There is a large market for tablets, but it appears part of the challenge beyond the difficult comp is that the market is becoming more price sensitive than we previously expected. Amit Daryanani, RBC: Better Than Feared, Focus Remains On Product Cycle. "Bears will point to i. decline in China revenues, ii. Lack of gross-margin expansion, iii. Lack of innovation and iv. Concerns gross-margins trend lower. The bulls will focus on: i. strong iPhone sales, ii. Attractive FCF generation, iii. Revenue catalysts – iPhone 5s, Low-end iPhone, iPad mini refresh, iPad 5 and new carrier relationships (China Mobile)." Beau Skonieczny, Technology Business Research: Emerging markets are key to growth. "Apple continued to achieve relative success in emerging markets, supported largely by its entry-level iPhone products and the company's focus on offering more affordable pricing options for customers in these markets. Apple had considerable success in India and the Philippines, which saw unit sales up over 400% and 140% year-to-year, respectively. Apple also made gains with iPhone in Eastern Europe, with sales in Poland and Turkey both up over 60% year-to-year." Brian Marshall, ISI: Giving AAPL some benefit of the doubt again. "Despite two significant hardware advancements (e.g., LTE connectivity and a slightly larger display), iPhone 5 adoption has not been quite as robust as many hoped. In part, this is due to the need for an even larger screen. However, we also believe a lack of software enhancements (e.g., stale user interface [UI], Maps and Siri disappointments, etc.) have been responsible for Android closing the user experience gap. While the iPhone 5S could be another disappointment (assuming no change in screen size), we believe AAPL's iOS7 "extreme makeover" could satisfy the demand for a fresher UI and give AAPL's traditionally loyal installed base enough reason to wait for a larger-display iPhone model. As we have written in the past, even though AAPL's urgent need is for better iPhone hardware (namely a larger display), creating greater "stickiness" to the iOS platform is the more difficult task and we believe iOS7 is making important strides (e.g., improved built-in apps, iTunes Radio, enhanced Siri/iCloud, etc.) in that regard."
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 24, 2013 2:44:38 GMT -8
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Post by phoebear611 on Jul 24, 2013 2:44:59 GMT -8
Seeking Alpha has a positive article out and a negative article out on AAPL. From JPM - a note last night (they have OW on the stock) which ended with a summary stating: What Next? For Apple, we think the timing of new product releases later this fall will be paramount to reviving investor interest in the stock. The question is whether Apple will stagger new product launches this year to avoid the repeat of last year’s shortages, which led to the company losing out on potential customer conversions. Until then, we expect the debate over the impact on consolidated gross margin from the lower-priced iPhone to continue. We believe investors will also want to track the potential rebound in China later this year.Meanwhile - Reuters story carried by YHOO finance reads: "Apple wobbles in China as rivals offer more, for less"I still think the media continues to aggressively spin negativity throughout with respect to AAPL. At this point, it's perplexing. NO ONE is even commenting on the buyback progress/outlook. I just don't get it - but I think AAPL's management was loud and clear that their stock - in their opinion - is cheap here...and they are buying aggressively probably based on the anticipation of the success of the products that they know they will be introducing. Yet no one is commenting on this this morning. Alas, the day is young and the media for lack of a better word, is stupid (actually that is a perfect word) - we'll see what the commentary is today. By the way - my view of the media is exactly what happened during the Asiana crash in San Fran when the reporter stupidly read the bogus names of the crew. This is who they are - talking heads who give no thought to their words. It's all about the TelePrompter - a real live "Anchorman" scenario. The same holds true on the business channels...even more so. Maybe they should stop and listen to the nonsensical crap they spew on an hourly basis. Awful....simply awful.
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Post by appledoc on Jul 24, 2013 2:50:06 GMT -8
It's okay pheobes. Our day will come. Not convinced it's here yet, but it's close.
All I want from today is to convincingly close above the SMA100.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 24, 2013 3:01:59 GMT -8
Megathemes take time to absorb. In the meantime, I'm watching the price action and OpEx, which has some implied resistance at 435-440 among other levels.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 24, 2013 3:03:47 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 24, 2013 3:12:51 GMT -8
iPad underlying sellthrough down 3% (YOY?) - about halfway through the CC.
Not so bad, if I heard it right. Ah, the joys of shifted seasonality effects.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 24, 2013 3:27:29 GMT -8
Although I'm dubious about Miseks work, Jeffries also raising estimates as follows:
"The firm raised Q4 EPS from $7.28 to $7.58, FY 2013 EPS from $38.67 to $39.10 and FY 2014 EPS from $36.60 to $38.78."
Not spectacular numbers of course, but the fact we have estimates rising is positive of course.
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Post by appledoc on Jul 24, 2013 3:35:05 GMT -8
Although I'm dubious about Miseks work, Jeffries also raising estimates as follows: "The firm raised Q4 EPS from $7.28 to $7.58, FY 2013 EPS from $38.67 to $39.10 and FY 2014 EPS from $36.60 to $38.78." Not spectacular numbers of course, but the fact we have estimates rising is positive of course. If there's even a single quarter of EPS contraction in 2014, let alone the entire year, this will be a long haul. I don't believe for a second that EPS contracts next year.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 24, 2013 3:44:51 GMT -8
Say wha? Apple has given exactly three "new methodology" quarters' worth of guidance, not five. I agree with burgess. The methodology has changed, but yes, Apple not beating its own guidance on revs is a first in a long while. OTOH, that's no bad thing. It validates Oppenheimer's approach ("yes, this really is a range we expect to report within"), and will cause WS analysts to near-instinctually adjust their estimates downward. As if on request, Horace produces a chart of apples revenue guidance vs actual, and demonstrates that going back to 2005 Apple has always beaten its guidance, even during the 2008 GFC: /photo/1
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Post by Deleted on Jul 24, 2013 3:46:47 GMT -8
Although I'm dubious about Miseks work, Jeffries also raising estimates as follows: "The firm raised Q4 EPS from $7.28 to $7.58, FY 2013 EPS from $38.67 to $39.10 and FY 2014 EPS from $36.60 to $38.78." Not spectacular numbers of course, but the fact we have estimates rising is positive of course. If there's even a single quarter of EPS contraction in 2014, let alone the entire year, this will be a long haul. I don't believe for a second that EPS contracts next year. I agree completely. Miseks at the very bottom end of Wall Street estimates, so when he is raising it means the average street consensus will be increasing.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 24, 2013 3:55:31 GMT -8
BMO Capital Upgrades Apple to Outperform The upgrades keep coming this morning
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Post by Deleted on Jul 24, 2013 4:12:14 GMT -8
The upgrades keep coming!
Credit Suisse Apple analyst Kublinder Garcha issued a note this morning following Apple's earnings last night. In the note, they say that Q3 marks a bottom as they see a stabilization in results from here and a recovery to follow.
"The June quarter results marked the first time in several quarters where Apple exceeded expectations across all key metrics (revenues, GM, EPS). We adjust our FY13/14 EPS to $39.22/$48.22 and see the recent results release as reassuring. Fundamentally, with a structural advantage in the compute market and upcoming product launches, Apple could deliver EPS power of $50 in CY14 and return to growth. We reiterate our Outperform rating and $525 TP."
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Post by prazan on Jul 24, 2013 4:20:51 GMT -8
Megathemes take time to absorb. In the meantime, I'm watching the price action and OpEx, which has some implied resistance at 435-440 among other levels. 435-440 is also the region of the most recent downtrend line that began on Feb 6th. That's a long way up from here. I'm not sure we can vault above it today, but vault above it we must. A little Warp power today and tomorrow would help.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 24, 2013 4:46:45 GMT -8
Say wha? Apple has given exactly three "new methodology" quarters' worth of guidance, not five. I agree with burgess. The methodology has changed, but yes, Apple not beating its own guidance on revs is a first in a long while. OTOH, that's no bad thing. It validates Oppenheimer's approach ("yes, this really is a range we expect to report within"), and will cause WS analysts to near-instinctually adjust their estimates downward. Let's be even more precise. Yes, Apple has given 3 quarters of guidance with ranges but we have experience with exactly 2 (e.g. estimated v. actual). I'm sorry, but I'm not buying that Apple broke some kind of streak by not beating the top # in sales guidance. Apple CHANGED its guidance and reported within its sales range for the June quarter. Using the history of old guidance to suggest Apple missed is just wrong. It's like comparing, uh, apples with oranges.
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Post by macwire on Jul 24, 2013 4:51:45 GMT -8
Golden cross of 10/50 should happen today and the 200 day is moving towards 460-470 which was the previous rejection levels of past short term dead cat bounces.
Looks like a convergence of a bullish move. Lets hope we hold and consolidate today's gains towards some kind of blockbuster product launches for fall...
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 24, 2013 4:59:46 GMT -8
Not quite Mercel. Apple went to ranges for a time and they continued sailing over the bar.
But I don't regard this "in line with guidance" bit as a huge deal because THIS shift in methodology seems truly different.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 24, 2013 5:02:29 GMT -8
Megathemes take time to absorb. In the meantime, I'm watching the price action and OpEx, which has some implied resistance at 435-440 among other levels. 435-440 is also the region of the most recent downtrend line that began on Feb 6th. That's a long way up from here. I'm not sure we can vault above it today, but vault above it we must. A little Warp power today and tomorrow would help. I'll call in Star Fleet resources and even those pesky Klingons...Warp 7! Engage!
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Post by Deleted on Jul 24, 2013 5:07:07 GMT -8
Not quite Mercel. Apple went to ranges for a time and they continued sailing over the bar. But I don't regard this "in line with guidance" bit as a huge deal because THIS shift in methodology seems truly different. "For a time...." being the operative phrase AND Peter O's narrative that accompanied using ranges THIS time around. Apple could have easily topped the sales guidance number in June by selling into the channel but chose not to. I think we can agree this isn't worthy of CNBC chatter, serving the "Apple is Doomed" meme.
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Post by nagrani on Jul 24, 2013 5:08:12 GMT -8
Golden cross sounds much better than the golden shower we have all been getting. Cheers to the faithful longs. Today is for you.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 24, 2013 5:11:01 GMT -8
435-440 is also the region of the most recent downtrend line that began on Feb 6th. That's a long way up from here. I'm not sure we can vault above it today, but vault above it we must. A little Warp power today and tomorrow would help. I'll call in Star Fleet resources and even those pesky Klingons...Warp 7! Engage! Since Bezos picked one of those Saturn V rocket engines from the ocean mud, I'm not inclined to use those pics anymore, so distasteful I find AMZN's share price. So, you have the wheel, er' rudder, uh' command post?
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Post by po1nt on Jul 24, 2013 5:11:37 GMT -8
Golden cross sounds much better than the golden shower we have all been getting. Cheers to the faithful longs. Today is for you. LOL
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Post by Deleted on Jul 24, 2013 5:15:43 GMT -8
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Post by terps530 on Jul 24, 2013 5:16:12 GMT -8
Golden cross sounds much better than the golden shower we have all been getting. Cheers to the faithful longs. Today is for you. LOL X2
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Post by redinaustin on Jul 24, 2013 5:35:41 GMT -8
A fantastic read and a great reminder: vintagezen.com/2013/7/18/apple-incWhat is the purpose of Apple, Inc.? That's the question most people gloss over when spewing out torrents of opinions over the latest Apple issue of the day. However, you can't criticize (or praise) a company unless you fully understand the larger picture - their very purpose.
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Post by terps530 on Jul 24, 2013 5:44:25 GMT -8
Yea that does look quite real. Love the engineering of the internal shell for shielding etc. I have to do that kind of stuff at my job, and our shell designs for much larger touchpanels are not nearly as awesome as those. Granted our products usually do 10k-20k EAU instead of millions for the iphones, so they likely can spend a lot more to tool up such an intricate design.
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