Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 24, 2013 9:21:33 GMT -8
I think we can agree this isn't worthy of CNBC chatter, serving the "Apple is Doomed" meme. I agree. I have chosen not to defend my observation because it would be long and pointless. The era of blogger debate over management's meaning, etc. is over. TC and PO have done a masterful job of making Apple much more transparent. You can see this in the tight grouping of analyst estimates, with the exception of most amateurs, and certain pros that seem to pull numbers out of their collective asses. My forecasts are going to shift from "next quarter" to next year. Apple's Guidance is good enough for those making near term investment decisions. For the true longs its next year that they are most concerned about. Now that the transition to the new management team is complete (WS trusts them), investors should be looking further out. By October I will have transitioned my short term investment strategy to a definite long term strategy of accumulating shares (using options of course).
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 24, 2013 9:31:30 GMT -8
So Mercel, Apple is time-weighting its share repurchase? Apple might buy back considerably more than 50M shares (net reduction) by the end of September, with a few million or so of that total that gets "carried over" to fiscal Q1. Staggering to think about. Yes. It's possible we see something closer to 60M shares being removed for total share count for the period from April 1 - Sept 30. This would add approx. 55 cents more EPS than Apple would have otherwise reported.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 24, 2013 9:41:32 GMT -8
Numerous posters on other boards rallying to the idea that Apple retired 33 million shares , not the 22 million noted early yesterday. Very aggressive....very positive. I'm not so sure Apple is going to "retire" them entirely. I think it entirely possible that in 2, maybe 3 years, with AAPL trading north of $800/share, these will be used to acquire Companies, and/or compensate employees. Dilution will commence anew, but whose going to care then?
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Jul 24, 2013 9:41:44 GMT -8
This is better for Apple and sentiment than EPS, but hey, I'll take it.
These are very savvy moves to leverage Apple's cash while still leaving plenty enough for operations and acquisitions...can't help but like those. I still think Apple is well aware that reducing share count to 900M diluted opens up the possibility of a share split. Not that it will, not that it theoretically makes a difference, but the option will be there.
Btw Mercel, did you hear anything about Apple's cash balance in the CC? I don't remember hearing how many billions (debt aside) are stocked in the war chest this time around. (That number _was_ somewhere around $110B last quarter though, so stick with that number, plus net cash flow of a few billion, plus the bond proceeds, less the bond obligations?)
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 24, 2013 9:43:15 GMT -8
I know some of you don't like to click MacDaily News, but the top 3 stories: 1. Jim Cramer: Too much Apple hatred 2. BMW admits underestimating Apple's upside potential, upgrages AAPL to "Buy" 3. Has Apple found the Holy Grail of business strategy? This represents sentiment change to the positive, even on this site. macdailynews.com/category/news/
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Jul 24, 2013 9:44:12 GMT -8
MDN's a decent news aggregator. I visit regularly. The opinion content varies, though. It isn't quite what it used to be.
|
|
|
Post by appledoc on Jul 24, 2013 10:42:03 GMT -8
Bought at 442.20.
|
|
|
Post by phoebear611 on Jul 24, 2013 10:43:59 GMT -8
A few things: First - congrats to the longs Second - congrats to Gregg on making Top 10 - good for you! Third - Mercel, it happened as you predicted, Colin Gilles was just on CNBC - negative as always - a buffoon as usual.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 24, 2013 10:48:13 GMT -8
Congrats to Gregg re: PED poll. Didn't reach his "in the top 10" goal, but third among independents and just about matching Horace Dedieu is a performance to be proud of. Thank you. It wasn't really hard. Take another look at my performance. I came closest to being correct when I had PO's Guidance to follow. I performed miserably when that Guidance didn't exist and I was left to my own devices. That was true of everybody except the top 10. The major errors were made in unit estimates which, as it turned out, had no bearing on Revenue estimates based on PO's Guidance. In my opinion, focus should be shifted away from estimating units sold to those items that PO Guides. But if Apple is performing within Guided ranges, what's the point of independent analysis (pro or amateur)? The only thing left for analysis is trying to determine how the market is going to react to the Guidance. Sentiment, or as I call it ISM (Investor Sentiment Multiplier). Ordinarily, flat Guidance, as we just received, would extend trading at current levels, except that even though AAPL has been trading in a flat range since last April, it is trading below justifiable valuation. Therefore I see AAPL trending upwards for the next 90 days (Oct earnings) to about $480. $40.08 ttm X 11.980 ISM My ISM number is a calculation, based on historical observation, that is the average ISM since April earnings plus 4 Standard Deviations. The number of Standard Deviations comes from the historical observations.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 24, 2013 10:53:18 GMT -8
This is better for Apple and sentiment than EPS, but hey, I'll take it. These are very savvy moves to leverage Apple's cash while still leaving plenty enough for operations and acquisitions...can't help but like those. I still think Apple is well aware that reducing share count to 900M diluted opens up the possibility of a share split. Not that it will, not that it theoretically makes a difference, but the option will be there. Yeah, I recall reading something about that recently.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 24, 2013 10:56:35 GMT -8
MDN's a decent news aggregator. I visit regularly. The opinion content varies, though. It isn't quite what it used to be. They're doing the same thing that all media does, they are pandering to the emotional reader to generate hits. I have commented on the site about that, only to have my posts pulled.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 24, 2013 11:19:31 GMT -8
I think it should be reserved until AAPL is north of $600 again Very pleasantly surprised by the price action so far today. I fully expected the gap up to be faded this morning...a pattern that has been repeated on so many occasions during the past 9 months. I don't think we're going to get a fade. True it's happened several times during the last 9 months, but you have to look at the sentiment environment between then and now. The best example is AAPL's trading post April earnings. Sentiment changed after that report to the positive. It was the first after PO browbeat WS with the fact that Guidance metrics had changed. After April earnings AAPL gained $50+ over a two week period. Earnings wasn't that strong and Guidance was actually bad. The deal was that Apple performed to Guidance in a very predictable way. Yesterday's report reinforced that Apple's Guidance is something that can be trusted (elimination of uncertainty), and the new Guidance shows the return of growth. While the Sept '12 to April '13 period was a falling knife, April '13 to July '13 went sideways (a definite improvement). With the return of trusted Guidance, and Guidance indicating growth I think AAPL is going to trade upward from these depressed levels. That will be partly due to the fall launch of seriously updated products (iOS 7) and the looming December quarter, but mostly because WS now trusts Apple's Guidance. The return of growth is only in Revenue though and only in one quarter...what we really need is EPS Growth and obviously we'll need to wait for October guidance to see if that happens in January. It'd sure be nice to see $15 in January
|
|
|
Post by lance on Jul 24, 2013 11:20:22 GMT -8
It says on google finance that share count is 908mil. Is this correct. Did they wipe out more than 30million shares already?
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 24, 2013 11:26:33 GMT -8
A few things: Second - congrats to Gregg on making Top 10 - good for you! Third - Mercel, it happened as you predicted, Colin Gilles was just on CNBC - negative as always - a buffoon as usual. Just a note about Colin Giles. Rev & EPS. I placed 18th with a 2.0% margin of error. Colin Giles placed 15th with a 1.8% margin of error. Overall Ranking. I placed 43rd with a 9.5% margin of error. Colin Giles placed 6th with a 5.6% margin of error. You can't congratulate me (as much as I appreciate it), and call Giles a buffoon at the same time. Apple did not Guide as I thought they would (Rev $2 Billion to low). There is much to be negative, and positive, about in Apple's Guidance.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 24, 2013 11:34:46 GMT -8
I don't think we're going to get a fade. True it's happened several times during the last 9 months, but you have to look at the sentiment environment between then and now. The best example is AAPL's trading post April earnings. Sentiment changed after that report to the positive. It was the first after PO browbeat WS with the fact that Guidance metrics had changed. After April earnings AAPL gained $50+ over a two week period. Earnings wasn't that strong and Guidance was actually bad. The deal was that Apple performed to Guidance in a very predictable way. Yesterday's report reinforced that Apple's Guidance is something that can be trusted (elimination of uncertainty), and the new Guidance shows the return of growth. While the Sept '12 to April '13 period was a falling knife, April '13 to July '13 went sideways (a definite improvement). With the return of trusted Guidance, and Guidance indicating growth I think AAPL is going to trade upward from these depressed levels. That will be partly due to the fall launch of seriously updated products (iOS 7) and the looming December quarter, but mostly because WS now trusts Apple's Guidance. The return of growth is only in Revenue though and only in one quarter...what we really need is EPS Growth and obviously we'll need to wait for October guidance to see if that happens in January. It'd sure be nice to see $15 in January Right you are. At this time I'm modeling $14.95 on 900,000,000 shares (YoY growth 8.25%).
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 24, 2013 11:36:40 GMT -8
It says on google finance that share count is 908mil. Is this correct. Did they wipe out more than 30million shares already? It's possible. 924M Diluted Shs. at June 30 less 11M from June (carried over to July 1) another 5M that occurred earlier this month = 908M. Anyone have a better source for 908M?
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 24, 2013 11:37:27 GMT -8
$15 EPS is very doable for FQ1 2014.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Jul 24, 2013 11:40:51 GMT -8
The hell, ARMH. SO HAPPY I actually got out of the BCS green. More than I say for another trade I have on (no it's not AAPL puts, that's all I'll say )
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Jul 24, 2013 11:41:55 GMT -8
How would Google Finance know more than a 10-Q?
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Jul 24, 2013 11:42:39 GMT -8
yay NFLX
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 24, 2013 11:43:32 GMT -8
You gotta love the consistency of Digitimes. www.digitimes.com/news/a20130723PD210.htmlMacBook shipments to reach 4 million in 3Q13Total Mac shipments in FQ3 was 3,952,000 units, derived from laptops AND desktops. Mac units overall are trending down. You would be wise to ignore any statements regarding Apple's product shipments. As evidenced by FQ3 iPhone results, nobody outside of Apple has more than a distant dart board chance of being right.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 24, 2013 11:47:13 GMT -8
How would Google Finance know more than a 10-Q? They don't.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 24, 2013 11:47:58 GMT -8
How would Google Finance know more than a 10-Q? 10Q is historical at June 30. But something is feeding Google's information and I don't know how they would know. Perhaps someone else can enlighten us. If stock repurchases were published that timely, we wouldn't have been taken by surprise last night. Nonetheless, 908M shares is not an unreasonable share count given the 11M shares flopping over to reduce share count in the Sept. quarter.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 24, 2013 11:48:29 GMT -8
Congrats to Gregg re: PED poll. Didn't reach his "in the top 10" goal, but third among independents and just about matching Horace Dedieu is a performance to be proud of. Thank you. It wasn't really hard. Take another look at my performance. I came closest to being correct when I had PO's Guidance to follow. I performed miserably when that Guidance didn't exist and I was left to my own devices. That was true of everybody except the top 10. The major errors were made in unit estimates which, as it turned out, had no bearing on Revenue estimates based on PO's Guidance. In my opinion, focus should be shifted away from estimating units sold to those items that PO Guides. But if Apple is performing within Guided ranges, what's the point of independent analysis (pro or amateur)? The only thing left for analysis is trying to determine how the market is going to react to the Guidance. Sentiment, or as I call it ISM (Investor Sentiment Multiplier). Ordinarily, flat Guidance, as we just received, would extend trading at current levels, except that even though AAPL has been trading in a flat range since last April, it is trading below justifiable valuation. Therefore I see AAPL trending upwards for the next 90 days (Oct earnings) to about $480. $40.08 ttm X 11.980 ISM My ISM number is a calculation, based on historical observation, that is the average ISM since April earnings plus 4 Standard Deviations. The number of Standard Deviations comes from the historical observations. I respectfully completely disagree about the importance of unit sales estimates. If apple had reported identical revenue & EPS yesterday, but missed on iPhones (and made up for it with iPads & Macs) the stock would have not popped today and all the analyst commentary would be negative.
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 24, 2013 11:54:18 GMT -8
I would like a thorough TA analysis after the close today from all the squiggly line gurus...Come on, make my day.
|
|
|
Post by nagrani on Jul 24, 2013 11:54:33 GMT -8
I'm thinking of creating a "daring fireball" type website called: www.shitonapple.com. The purpose of the website will be to link to the very best and brightest negative click whores covering apple. Seeking alpha - CNBC - that fucktard Rocco p - the true Allstars covering apple. I think I could a few hundred k visitors a month and sell ad space. Thoughts?! Worth a kick starter campaign?!
|
|
|
Post by Lstream on Jul 24, 2013 11:59:16 GMT -8
I'm thinking of creating a "daring fireball" type website called: www.shitonapple.com. The purpose of the website will be to link to the very best and brightest negative click whores covering apple. Seeking alpha - CNBC - that fucktard Rocco p - the true Allstars covering apple. I think I could a few hundred k visitors a month and sell ad space. Thoughts?! Worth a kick starter campaign?! This is frikken brilliant. You will make a fortune. Put in a message board, and you will have huge traffic from the Android fans. They will stick to your site like sh** on a blanket. I worry about your timing a little though. I think dumping on Apple is past its peak.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Jul 24, 2013 12:00:32 GMT -8
Pretty good day!
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 24, 2013 12:01:40 GMT -8
I'm thinking of creating a "daring fireball" type website called: www.shitonapple.com. The purpose of the website will be to link to the very best and brightest negative click whores covering apple. Seeking alpha - CNBC - that fucktard Rocco p - the true Allstars covering apple. I think I could a few hundred k visitors a month and sell ad space. Thoughts?! Worth a kick starter campaign?! Google and Microsoft would buy Ads...maybe Samsung.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 24, 2013 12:06:35 GMT -8
I'm thinking of creating a "daring fireball" type website called: www.shitonapple.com. The purpose of the website will be to link to the very best and brightest negative click whores covering apple. Seeking alpha - CNBC - that fucktard Rocco p - the true Allstars covering apple. I think I could a few hundred k visitors a month and sell ad space. Thoughts?! Worth a kick starter campaign?! LOL - do it!
|
|