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Post by prazan on Jul 24, 2013 12:08:32 GMT -8
435-440 is also the region of the most recent downtrend line that began on Feb 6th. That's a long way up from here. I'm not sure we can vault above it today, but vault above it we must. A little Warp power today and tomorrow would help. I'll call in Star Fleet resources and even those pesky Klingons...Warp 7! Engage! Well done, Red Shirted Ensign! We stayed above 440, though the close could have held a bit better. Tough market today.
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Post by macwire on Jul 24, 2013 12:20:29 GMT -8
Doji close. Over the 10/50/100 day. 200 day trending down toward our 460-470 zone that has been firm resistance all year.
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Post by nathanstevens on Jul 24, 2013 12:27:23 GMT -8
Numerous posters on other boards rallying to the idea that Apple retired 33 million shares , not the 22 million noted early yesterday. Very aggressive....very positive. Got a reply from Apple IR that confirmed things. YES! The shares are WEIGHTED for the quarter, which is why the Q3 EPS share count won't be reduced by the total amount of shares repurchased in the quarter. In other words, if the shares repurchased occurred on April 1 2013, we would have seen the extra 11M shares removed from the total share count. When the big buy back was originally announced it was set to take place over approximately 8 qtrs. using an average share price of 500 the 58B could retire approximately 116M shares during that period. However, 33/116 gives 28% of the total anticipated shares being retired in 1/8th of the time available. I'd say this signals that Apple management doesn't see the aapl stock sale lasting anywhere near 8 qtrs.
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Post by appledoc on Jul 24, 2013 12:29:04 GMT -8
I would like a thorough TA analysis after the close today from all the squiggly line gurus...Come on, make my day. WHEEEEEEEEEEE That's all I can do since I'm at work. Can give more later. But numerous bullish TA signals came today. I think we run from here. Let's ride the upper BB.
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Post by jdubuc on Jul 24, 2013 12:31:51 GMT -8
This is actually in-line with how I see this going down. At some point (though perhaps not immediately with the launch of the 5S), I think a midrange-priced iPhone ($449?) is introduced and replaces one or both of the older model iPhones still available for sale. This standardizes the entire line of available products on Lightning connector, a good thing for the accessories ecosystem.
Furthermore, I think that Apple is bumping the floor of the cost curve on these older model phones, due in part to the use of aluminum & glass enclosures. Moving to plastic could allow them to achieve better gross margins at a similar price point to that of iPhone 4 today. (As well as arguably greater durability, a concern for parents purchasing phones for their kids.)
It also provides a clear differentiator between the tiers of phone hardware. Today most non-techies I've spoken to have a hard time understanding the benefits of iPhone 5 over iPhone 4S, where I have seen these same people choose Macbook Pro over the previous polycarbonate entry-level Macbook just because of the gorgeous aluminum chassis, thinner design, etc.
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Post by capablanca on Jul 24, 2013 12:40:48 GMT -8
I would like a thorough TA analysis after the close today from all the squiggly line gurus...Come on, make my day. As a few will recall from the old days, I follow the weekly chart. In the last 4 years, the closing weekly price has crossed the 26-week EMA for longer than one week only once. That was last October on the way down with the price at about $600. The 26-week EMA is currently at about 445. Stay tuned, but I am cautious until this resolves.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 24, 2013 13:05:14 GMT -8
Qcom reports well..
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Post by lovemyipad on Jul 24, 2013 13:19:29 GMT -8
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Post by phoebear611 on Jul 24, 2013 13:22:57 GMT -8
Hey Greg - I still think Gilles is a buffoon. I don't judge someone on one prediction. I have watched him over two years be negative on AAPL when it ran to 705 and down to 395. He said the same thing --- regardless of stock price and his estimates tend to be off more often than not. He is an AAPL hater and to be frank - when he does miss by a lot (which he has on several occasions) he proceeds to laugh about it ON CAMERA! I have witnessed it in real time and I think it is awful since there must be people who are investing based on his dart board picks. So I can't be the Soup Nazi but I can be the Congratulations Nazi and there will be no congratulations for him!
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Post by Deleted on Jul 24, 2013 13:28:07 GMT -8
So I can't be the Soup Nazi but I can be the Congratulations Nazi and there will be no congratulations for him! LOL
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 24, 2013 13:42:13 GMT -8
Hey Greg - I still think Gilles is a buffoon. I don't judge someone on one prediction. I have watched him over two years be negative on AAPL when it ran to 705 and down to 395. He said the same thing --- regardless of stock price and his estimates tend to be off more often than not. He is an AAPL hater and to be frank - when he does miss by a lot (which he has on several occasions) he proceeds to laugh about it ON CAMERA! I have witnessed it in real time and I think it is awful since there must be people who are investing based on his dart board picks. So I can't be the Soup Nazi but I can be the Congratulations Nazi and there will be no congratulations for him! Phoebes in another life....
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Post by po1nt on Jul 24, 2013 13:54:42 GMT -8
Found this interesting in the conference call
We opened six new stores across five countries during the quarter and ended the quarter with a total of 408 stores including 156 outside United States. We expect to open nine new stores in the September quarter, bringing us to a total of 27 new store openings in fiscal '13 With an average of 405 stores opened in June quarter, average revenue per store was 10.1 million compared to 11.1 million in the year ago quarter. Retail segment income was 667 million. We hosted 84 million visitors to our stores during the quarter which translates to 16,000 visitors per store per week.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 24, 2013 14:00:01 GMT -8
I'm thinking of creating a "daring fireball" type website called: www.shitonapple.com. The purpose of the website will be to link to the very best and brightest negative click whores covering apple. Seeking alpha - CNBC - that fucktard Rocco p - the true Allstars covering apple. I think I could a few hundred k visitors a month and sell ad space. Thoughts?! Worth a kick starter campaign?! If it serves as an invitation to inspire more Apple-hate, I don't see the point of that. But how about an orchard reserved for sour apples where you call trolls out? We may be talking similar things but an individual's presence denotes a dishonorable discharge, not approbation for their hate.
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Post by The Big Toe on Jul 24, 2013 14:08:45 GMT -8
I'm thinking of creating a "daring fireball" type website called: www.shitonapple.com. The purpose of the website will be to link to the very best and brightest negative click whores covering apple. Seeking alpha - CNBC - that fucktard Rocco p - the true Allstars covering apple. I think I could a few hundred k visitors a month and sell ad space. Thoughts?! Worth a kick starter campaign?! If it serves as an invitation to inspire more Apple-hate, I don't see the point of that. But how about an orchard reserved for sour apples where you call trolls out? We may be talking similar things but an individual's presence denotes a dishonorable discharge, not approbation for their hate. I was thinking the same thing and almost bought "clickwhore.com"
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Post by artman1033 on Jul 24, 2013 14:36:20 GMT -8
LIKE CLOCKWORK: THE 10-Q IS UP908,497,000 shares of common stock issued and outstanding as of July 12, 2013
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jul 24, 2013 14:42:35 GMT -8
Check out FB - that's quite an AH pop!
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Post by ericinaustin on Jul 24, 2013 14:43:42 GMT -8
The iPhone numbers for the quarter really impressed me and I think they have huge implications for the future. We had really strong growth in a quarter when Samsung had all the press and momentum on its side and when they put out their best new high end model when the current iPhone version is at the end of its run.
It says a lot about the stickiness of the ecosystem and it may mark the end of samsungs push to take over the high end price point. The had their best shot with all of the press on their side and couldn't put the ball in the end zone. For the next six months Apple will have the ball and the wind at their back ( to beat an analogy to death).
Take that and what looks like a push into the mid range market and apple may move an absolute insane number of phones in the next 6 to 12 months. I think we are looking at a period coming up very much like the same time two years ago.
700 to 800 a share in 12 to 18 months. Very doable IMHO
Eric in Austin
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 24, 2013 14:53:36 GMT -8
Holy crap. Apple bought back almost _40M_ shares already?! Did I read that right?
If this keeps up I better buy the dip a bit more myself!
Whatcha think Mercel? Might Apple have <900M diluted shares by end of fiscal Q4? Sure seems like it.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 24, 2013 15:35:01 GMT -8
Holy crap. Apple bought back almost _40M_ shares already?! Did I read that right? If this keeps up I better buy the dip a bit more myself! Whatcha think Mercel? Might Apple have <900M diluted shares by end of fiscal Q4? Sure seems like it. It means Apple purchased an additional 5M shares in July (still weighted, but nonetheless). We're going to be well under 900M shares by end of Sept. 30. Beating EPS YOY for FQ4 2013 is looking better every hour...
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 24, 2013 15:37:22 GMT -8
Holy crap. Apple bought back almost _40M_ shares already?! Did I read that right? If this keeps up I better buy the dip a bit more myself! Whatcha think Mercel? Might Apple have <900M diluted shares by end of fiscal Q4? Sure seems like it. I'm now modeling 895 million for the end of the quarter. I think that will be the right number, assuming the price stays in the 430-480 range.. As the sheer power of this share reduction starts to materialize, along with the flexibility it gives Apple management and the bonus EPS to shareholders , a word ot thanks to the outside agitators who got Apple moving on "putting the cash to work". perhaps Apple had this plan on the drawing board two years ago...but I doubt it. Instead the noise from the peanut gallery, the shareholder base, Einhorn and others caused Apple to do what it does best.....take its time and then design the very best cash return program imaginable....then implement it flawlessly. All very quiet. Hire the cash guru guy. Program gets designed. Borrow at absolute rock bottom rates, best in a generation, have a flexible Plan that allows Apple to use the money quickly so that more shares are bought at low prices AND dividends won't have to be paid. Mask what you are doing. Unveil the results of the plan quietly at end of the Q3. Let the impact settle in.....Watch the eventual cascade effect as new products, new product catagories, big rollouts are all augmented by a lower share count....No....a MUCH lower share count. I like it....a lot.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 24, 2013 15:39:35 GMT -8
LIKE CLOCKWORK: THE 10-Q IS UP908,497,000 shares of common stock issued and outstanding as of July 12, 2013Nice that the 10Q reports subsequent repurchases post June 30, 2013. Thanks Artman! I forwarded to PED.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 24, 2013 15:43:18 GMT -8
LIKE CLOCKWORK: THE 10-Q IS UP908,497,000 shares of common stock issued and outstanding as of July 12, 2013Nice that the 10Q reports subsequent repurchases post June 30, 2013. Thanks Artman! I forwarded to PED. Apple buys the dips in AAPL
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 24, 2013 15:52:27 GMT -8
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Post by macoz on Jul 24, 2013 16:27:48 GMT -8
Holy crap. Apple bought back almost _40M_ shares already?! Did I read that right? Not quite right. Do not get fixated by the diluted share count. That figure is determined by the Company's accountants each quarter and takes into account outstanding stock options, RSUs etc. It is unlikely that anyone outside the company can calculate the diluted number of shares. The Basic share count is the actual number of shares issued as at a particular period in time and therefore is the actual number of shares outstanding at any point in time. If this keeps up I better buy the dip a bit more myself! Whatcha think Mercel? Might Apple have <900M diluted shares by end of fiscal Q4? Sure seems like it.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 24, 2013 16:37:40 GMT -8
Yeah, the 10Q likely reports the share count, not the diluted #, so 11M shares off the June 30 # is 908M and change. Still, it confirms that the 11M reduced flopped into the Sept. quarter.
And I still say we have a fair chance to beat EPS YOY, depending on timing of product releases (I know, I know, Apple has this on the calendar already but I think Apple reserves the right to play it cagy...).
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 24, 2013 17:15:47 GMT -8
Diluted share count is what we need for EPS. Maybe I can't ever calculate it to any degree of precision quarter to quarter, but you better believe I'll focus on it.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 24, 2013 17:16:55 GMT -8
Mercel, the only way you get your YOY beat (with asterisks, most likely) is by Apple beating its net income range guidance. It hasn't done that yet.
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Post by rickag on Jul 24, 2013 17:25:30 GMT -8
LIKE CLOCKWORK: THE 10-Q IS UP908,497,000 shares of common stock issued and outstanding as of July 12, 2013Wow. That means there is about 10 million in restricted stock and just under an additional 6 million shares for other obligations(options outstanding and other obligations). Opps, never mind outstanding stock includes restricted shares. So there are about 16 million share covering other obligations.
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Post by nagrani on Jul 24, 2013 17:45:52 GMT -8
Lets start discussing the next near term catalyst for apple - the apple event for new products. Here is some raw data on prior dates: B2S School promotions ends: 2013 Friday Sept 6th 2012 Friday Sept 21st 2011 Tues Sept 20th 2010 Tues Sept 7th Apple Events 2013 2012 Wednesday Sept 12th 2011 Tuesday Oct 4th 2010 Wednesday Sept 1st Apple iPhone 2013 ? 2012 Friday, September 21st 2011 Friday, October 14th 2010 N/A iPhone came in June
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 24, 2013 17:50:40 GMT -8
The event will be September 4
The iPhone goes on sale Friday September 13
BWDIK
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