Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 24, 2013 1:44:22 GMT -8
Well, someone can always start the next quarter's topic - I'd join in. I got an implied EPS guidance range of about $6.98 - 8.16 @ 900M diluted shares outstanding, depending on your philosophy on rounding up. That sound about right? [EDIT: Changed topic title. Less than 10 days before the earnings release.]
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 24, 2013 6:01:12 GMT -8
Well, someone can always start the next quarter's topic - I'd join in. I got an implied EPS guidance range of about $6.98 - 8.16 @ 900M diluted shares outstanding, depending on your philosophy on rounding up. That sound about right? Really back of the envelope I'm at. $8.05. I'm assuming near top of range on revs, challenges on GM. I'd love the new products to hit the market early in September and not be supply constrained....then I'm at the top of your range, no problem
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Post by Deleted on Jul 24, 2013 21:35:20 GMT -8
I think this will be the easiest quarter for Apple to essentially guarantee the max revenue guidance, as every new iPhone and new iPad built during this quarter will either be sold or go into channel build for the following quarter. Which kind of makes it strange that apple widened its Q3 guidance to a $3 billion range...? Maybe a particular new iPhone component is still being finalised or a certain new form factor iPhone production speed is still TBC. Even the launch date for iPads is perhaps still in flux. In any case, my top super optimistic number is $8.63, which not coincidentally would bring FY2012 earnings to a nice neat $40.00. But at this stage approximately $8 seems a sensible number based on max guidance figures.
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Post by appledoc on Jul 25, 2013 4:43:42 GMT -8
Burgess, I thought you said guidance implied a YoY beat? I'm not trying to be an ass, just wondering how you initially came to that conclusion. Thanks.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 25, 2013 9:36:15 GMT -8
Well, someone can always start the next quarter's topic - I'd join in. I got an implied EPS guidance range of about $6.98 - 8.16 @ 900M diluted shares outstanding, depending on your philosophy on rounding up. That sound about right? Really back of the envelope I'm at. $8.05. I'm assuming near top of range on revs, challenges on GM. I'd love the new products to hit the market early in September and not be supply constrained....then I'm at the top of your range, no problem Revs near top of range GM struggling at ~37.20 Shares ~905 EPS $8.15 I'll never get the data I want [need], but the hairs on the back of my neck have me thinking a little more than top of revenue range is possible ($37.500 B?). Depends on launch date of next iPhone.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 25, 2013 9:46:36 GMT -8
I think this will be the easiest quarter for Apple to essentially guarantee the max revenue guidance, as every new iPhone and new iPad built during this quarter will either be sold or go into channel build for the following quarter. Which kind of makes it strange that apple widened its Q3 guidance to a $3 billion range...? Maybe a particular new iPhone component is still being finalised or a certain new form factor iPhone production speed is still TBC. Even the launch date for iPads is perhaps still in flux. In any case, my top super optimistic number is $8.63, which not coincidentally would bring FY2012 earnings to a nice neat $40.00. But at this stage approximately $8 seems a sensible number based on max guidance figures. I'm not so sure Apple intentionally drew down iPhone channel inventory. Is it possible that the surprise in iPhone unit sales was the result of higher demand [for the iPhone 4] than either WS, or Apple, anticipated, and that production lines were already being transitioned to the new models? What does that say about a "free" iPhone 4S with iOS 7 pre-installed? I am not going to speculate about any redesigns for any reasons.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 30, 2013 21:10:23 GMT -8
I'm troubled by the reports of Foxconn recruiting numbers. Ignoring current staffing, and working exclusively on reported new hire numbers (90,000) against my iPhone estimate (61,000,000) for FQ1, I'm coming up with 1 iPhone per hour per employee. That seems awfully inefficient. Anybody else have some thoughts on this?
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Post by nagrani on Jul 30, 2013 21:20:31 GMT -8
How can you ignore current staffing? Do you live in Japan by chance?
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Post by Deleted on Jul 30, 2013 21:30:04 GMT -8
I'm not so sure Apple intentionally drew down iPhone channel inventory. Is it possible that the surprise in iPhone unit sales was the result of higher demand [for the iPhone 4] than either WS, or Apple, anticipated, and that production lines were already being transitioned to the new models? What does that say about a "free" iPhone 4S with iOS 7 pre-installed? I am not going to speculate about any redesigns for any reasons. Horace posted a really interesting chart depicting iPhone sales at Apple Stores during FQ3. www.asymco.com/2013/07/30/the-iphone-stores/The chart shows a sharp increase in iPhone 4 unit sales. This seems to support my thesis that an unexpected rise in iPhone 4 sales was the cause of the sharp drawdown in ending inventory. A clue that this line of thinking is correct will be when iPhone 4s are reported no longer available (early August?). If the iPhone 4 has that much desirability remaining in it (as a 3+ year old handset), then how much desirability will there be in the iPhone 4S (2 year old handset) when its price is lowered $100?
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Post by Deleted on Jul 30, 2013 22:38:53 GMT -8
How can you ignore current staffing? Do you live in Japan by chance? Nope : ) I don't know what current staffing is. Whatever it is, the number of iPhones manufactured per hour per employee will go down. A better way to look at this may be to look at total iOS devices vs a single product.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 31, 2013 20:39:11 GMT -8
In extending my forecast model out to 2015 (waste of time, but oh we'll), I revisited my FQ4 numbers.
I'm now modeling $39 Billion with $11 EPS.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 31, 2013 20:44:21 GMT -8
I'm troubled by the reports of Foxconn recruiting numbers. Ignoring current staffing, and working exclusively on reported new hire numbers (90,000) against my iPhone estimate (61,000,000) for FQ1, I'm coming up with 1 iPhone per hour per employee. That seems awfully inefficient. Anybody else have some thoughts on this? There's at least two assemblers for iPhones & iPads: Foxconn & Pegatron. Pegatron has already announced plans for new hires for the new low cost iPhone. It's unlikely those 90,000 hires are going to be pushing out only iPhones. There are new iPads, and Mac on the near term horizon also. Not sure if iPhone per employee per hour is the best calculation to use (as there might be 120 employees per production line - meaning your 1 phone per hour per employee estimate would also mean 1 phone every 30 seconds per production line), but taking the average foxconns worker hourly wage is probably in the ballpark for estimates for the iPhones construction labour cost (when including foxconns margin).
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 31, 2013 20:49:26 GMT -8
Which fiscal quarter are we talking again? Q4 2013?
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Post by Deleted on Aug 1, 2013 6:43:22 GMT -8
I'm troubled by the reports of Foxconn recruiting numbers. Ignoring current staffing, and working exclusively on reported new hire numbers (90,000) against my iPhone estimate (61,000,000) for FQ1, I'm coming up with 1 iPhone per hour per employee. That seems awfully inefficient. Anybody else have some thoughts on this? There's at least two assemblers for iPhones & iPads: Foxconn & Pegatron. Pegatron has already announced plans for new hires for the new low cost iPhone. It's unlikely those 90,000 hires are going to be pushing out only iPhones. There are new iPads, and Mac on the near term horizon also. Not sure if iPhone per employee per hour is the best calculation to use (as there might be 120 employees per production line - meaning your 1 phone per hour per employee estimate would also mean 1 phone every 30 seconds per production line), but taking the average foxconns worker hourly wage is probably in the ballpark for estimates for the iPhones construction labour cost (when including foxconns margin). I really don't know if my formula has any meaning. I was just trying to start a discussion, and from that discussion maybe come up with something meaningful. Thanks for responding.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 1, 2013 6:47:26 GMT -8
Which fiscal quarter are we talking again? Q4 2013? My numbers are bogus. I was just testing to see, after all that was said on the intraday, if anyone would be checking in. Other than you and Burgess, it would seem I'm talking to a wall. Sad. Thanks for starting the thread Mav, but the AFB is a TA, product rumor, forum. Its no place for someone like me.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 1, 2013 7:10:01 GMT -8
For the record, here are my FQ4 numbers:
Revenue............$37.028 B Gross Margin.........37.47% OpEx..................$3.861 B OI&E.....................$232 M Tax Rate...............26.64%
Share Count....905,265,000 EPS.........................$8.30
Macs.................3,660,000 iPods.................4,010,000 iPhones............32,991,000 iPads...............16,110,000
Placing Unit sales at the bottom of the list is intentional.
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Post by rickag on Aug 1, 2013 7:14:43 GMT -8
Which fiscal quarter are we talking again? Q4 2013? My numbers are bogus. I was just testing to see, after all that was said on the intraday, if anyone would be checking in. Other than you and Burgess, it would seem I'm talking to a wall. Sad. Thanks for starting the thread Mav, but the AFB is a TA, product rumor, forum. Its no place for someone like me. I disagree your posts are very valuable to this forum.
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Post by lucy on Aug 1, 2013 9:04:24 GMT -8
+1!
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Post by lucy on Aug 1, 2013 9:15:31 GMT -8
As an afterthought... What do you think will be the effect on Apple's bottom line if they do ban the ipad 2 and iphone 4? Minimal?
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Aug 1, 2013 17:54:22 GMT -8
As an afterthought... What do you think will be the effect on Apple's bottom line if they do ban the ipad 2 and iphone 4? Minimal? Extremely minimal....and delay is the name of the game
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 1, 2013 18:16:38 GMT -8
Not material. That's all that matters.
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Post by rickag on Aug 1, 2013 18:38:54 GMT -8
As an afterthought... What do you think will be the effect on Apple's bottom line if they do ban the ipad 2 and iphone 4? Minimal? I would have expected Apple has covered their bases by having enough inventory to cover any ban until the iPhone 5C hits the market.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 1, 2013 18:43:25 GMT -8
Yup! Helps when you're a company like Apple. Some control over the levers of production.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Aug 22, 2013 16:30:08 GMT -8
Assuming a September 20 launch of both new iphones, I'm now at $8.55/sh, based on 895 million shares...
I really don't know if this is optimistic or not.....
Would love to get over $8.67...some GM improvement would do it, as would a bigger share buyback....or?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 22, 2013 17:57:29 GMT -8
I'm at $8.30ish EPS last time I ran some numbers.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 16, 2013 11:57:22 GMT -8
As I'd said previously, this is pretty much the same scenario as last year. You couldn't ask for a "better" compare than Q4 2012/Q1 2013. Then again, no one's 100% sure yet if there's even gonna be a new iPad mini this year. That whole "stuffing the world's highest-res 7.9" LCD screen into an iPad mini without thickness/battery consequences" deal. Hopefully, there'll be SOME clues to parse through this time next week.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 26, 2013 13:10:03 GMT -8
Quarter's almost over!
Will we lose Mercel from the board?
If this is the last hurrah, let's have this topic go out with some quality discussion!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 16, 2013 10:41:31 GMT -8
In case anyone was interested in making their own AAPL home game earnings estimates, or just wanted to see one very humble home gamer's approach from last fiscal quarter (Q3 2013): aapltree.wordpress.com/fundamentals-archive/
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 19, 2013 12:00:51 GMT -8
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 20, 2013 7:32:59 GMT -8
Mav,
Nice work. My few variations from your goat entrails.
Average share count will be closer to 900 million on average for the quarter. I suspect we are at 895 now.
Revs will be 37.5 billion. Yeah, I know Oppy said near the top but I think beating by 500 million is close enough....he stays true to his new coda and remember when they filed with the SEC the quarter was not over...they still had to be cautious in case 35 Boeing 747s full of iPhone 5s crashed.
GM.. This one has me going back and forth and if, if, they were pumping out 5c's for months before September 20 and have sold a lot.....could be good. As Capablanca noted, the seeming product mix favors a better GM ...
Your iPhone, iPad Mac counts look solid. If I had to wiggle I'd say a few more iPads and a few more phones. A few fewer Macs.
I'm at $8.17 right now....but it is soft.
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