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Post by lovemyipad on Jul 26, 2013 15:57:33 GMT -8
The bar is open!
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Post by lovemyipad on Jul 26, 2013 16:06:21 GMT -8
AMZN is up $6 by losing money and spending $4B. Yeah, that makes sense... Hilarious. Who are the bozos buying this stock? Shorts.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 26, 2013 16:07:37 GMT -8
Not a bad week! Unfortunately I still can't trade for beans, but at least my AAPL butterfly did pretty well! Since my account is going nowhere (to put it generously) I'll have a pure, refreshing glass of tap water please. Ah heck, throw in some ice! ;D
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 26, 2013 16:08:35 GMT -8
So iPad, are you saying there's a vicious cycle of AMZN shorts getting burned, and returning to the till grill to get burned yet again? If only AAPL shorts were so powerless, eh.
AMZN's reaching an inflection point, though, because it just can't burn cash at this rate. I expect AMZN to trade with considerably more volatility if the broader markets get choppy again.
I'm not touching that lighter-than-helium balloon for now.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jul 26, 2013 16:17:36 GMT -8
So iPad, are you saying there's a vicious cycle of AMZN shorts getting burned, and returning to the till grill to get burned yet again? Yes. I think there's a new crop of "this-can't-last-much-longer" types every quarter. Every time one crop goes broke, another comes along to take its place.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 26, 2013 16:23:30 GMT -8
The Verge...of not even attempting to be objective. Actually, no, it's past the verge.
The link's easy enough for you to find since the Nexus 7 Take 2 review is brand new. Nexus 7 Take 1 got an 8.8 from the Verge, so, yeah, no reason at all to be skeptical of the second review! And check out that awesome out-of-hand dismissal of a 2048x1536 3MP screen, never mind that the Nexus 7 has only 2MP! Man, the unreleased retina iPad mini just doesn't stand a chance. Those PadFone guys have a surefire winner here.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 26, 2013 16:25:35 GMT -8
So iPad, are you saying there's a vicious cycle of AMZN shorts getting burned, and returning to the till grill to get burned yet again? Yes. I think there's a new crop of "this-can't-last-much-longer" types every quarter. Every time one crop goes broke, another comes along to take its place. But it "ended" with Apple, a company that's never stopped making a profit. Is this just a function of smaller market cap?
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Post by lovemyipad on Jul 26, 2013 16:35:37 GMT -8
Yes. I think there's a new crop of "this-can't-last-much-longer" types every quarter. Every time one crop goes broke, another comes along to take its place. But it "ended" with Apple, a company that's never stopped making a profit. Is this just a function of smaller market cap? I think it's a function of the shoe being on the other foot now. It's the rational side that gets screwed for being rational.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 26, 2013 16:49:04 GMT -8
Not sure I follow. OTOH, maybe it's just sentiment being so ridiculously strong in favor of AMZN.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jul 26, 2013 17:02:00 GMT -8
Definitely on the sentiment possibility.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 26, 2013 17:11:02 GMT -8
I'm torn on this one: macdailynews.com/2013/07/26/apple-holds-beer-bash-as-iphone-market-share-shrinks-to-three-year-low/Part of it is MacDailyNews having this love-hate relationship with Tim Cook. Part of it is tradition (Apple's had beer bashes before, AFAIK). Part of it is really, really lousy optics despite any positive effect on employee morale. I'm not yet ready to write Apple off because a company that always outsold Apple in handsets may have out-profited Apple in mobile due to a huge mix shift to smartphones. There's also the matter of the best vertically integrated smartphone OEM having the ability to outmuscle the more hapless Android competitors and eat most of their profit lunch. But the race should at least remain close as Apple gets the next-generation iPhones ready to go.
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Post by artman1033 on Jul 26, 2013 18:09:19 GMT -8
I'm torn on this one: macdailynews.com/2013/07/26/apple-holds-beer-bash-as-iphone-market-share-shrinks-to-three-year-low/Part of it is MacDailyNews having this love-hate relationship with Tim Cook. Part of it is tradition (Apple's had beer bashes before, AFAIK). Part of it is really, really lousy optics despite any positive effect on employee morale. I'm not yet ready to write Apple off because a company that always outsold Apple in handsets may have out-profited Apple in mobile due to a huge mix shift to smartphones. There's also the matter of the best vertically integrated smartphone OEM having the ability to outmuscle the more hapless Android competitors and eat most of their profit lunch. But the race should at least remain close as Apple gets the next-generation iPhones ready to go. I have read Samesong is in a state of disarray! They are throwing everything at the wall to see what sticks. Read this article from 2009 Phone manufacturers from Japan had a head start on everybody else. Where are they now, four years later. I have no concerns over the future iPhone success. I worry about the manipulation of AAPL.
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Post by artman1033 on Jul 26, 2013 18:13:16 GMT -8
Spy agencies ban Lenovo PCs on security concerns
MALICIOUS MODIFICATIONS TO LENOVO’S CIRCUITRY AFR Weekend has been told British intelligence agencies’ laboratories took a lead role in the research into Lenovo’s products. Members of the British and Australian defence and intelligence communities say that malicious modifications to Lenovo’s circuitry – beyond more typical vulnerabilities or “zero-days” in its software – were discovered that could allow people to remotely access devices without the users’ knowledge. The alleged presence of these hardware “back doors” remains highly classified
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Post by Deleted on Jul 26, 2013 18:50:42 GMT -8
I'm livid at the market's response to Amazon's earnings and cash burn. Stay tuned for my response... ;D
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Post by Deleted on Jul 26, 2013 18:54:38 GMT -8
I'm torn on this one: macdailynews.com/2013/07/26/apple-holds-beer-bash-as-iphone-market-share-shrinks-to-three-year-low/Part of it is MacDailyNews having this love-hate relationship with Tim Cook. Part of it is tradition (Apple's had beer bashes before, AFAIK). Part of it is really, really lousy optics despite any positive effect on employee morale. I'm not yet ready to write Apple off because a company that always outsold Apple in handsets may have out-profited Apple in mobile due to a huge mix shift to smartphones. There's also the matter of the best vertically integrated smartphone OEM having the ability to outmuscle the more hapless Android competitors and eat most of their profit lunch. But the race should at least remain close as Apple gets the next-generation iPhones ready to go. Apple is more than holding its own, but with a new product cycle right in front of us and a response to Samsung's dominant penetration of the carriers (Docomo? China Mobile?), I'm not too worried about the cherry picking of one report over all the others Apple has put up.
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Post by lobo on Jul 26, 2013 19:00:47 GMT -8
I seem to be hearing a voice from Lenovo's Corporate Office that says something like "Don't pay attention to the man behind the curtain!" Or a certain non descript building in Beijing where they are saying "Move along folks, nothing to see here." Boy talk about a conspiracy theory in the making!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 26, 2013 19:11:31 GMT -8
Well, we're in full agreement about Samsung's handset operating profits not being of concern. Apple will have new iPhones *cough* on tap soon.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 26, 2013 19:12:51 GMT -8
Can anyone point me to historical forward P/E estimates for Amazon? I have the TTM P/Es, but forward P/Es are a complete mirage and I want to show this. How many years is WS going to give AMZN to live up to the P/Es it expects from other companies? Isn't 19 years enough time?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 26, 2013 19:15:29 GMT -8
"Wal-Mart has $470B in revenue. We should at least wait until Amazon hits the $250B mark before getting all 'judgy' on its profitability! ;D Also Kindles and digital content!"
And...original series? Can't wait for a price target hike because some analyst was a huge fan of "Betas"...
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 26, 2013 19:16:47 GMT -8
I'm livid at the market's response to Amazon's earnings and cash burn. Stay tuned for my response... ;D I've got the popcorn popped and the beer chilled..let her rip!!
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Post by Deleted on Jul 26, 2013 19:23:25 GMT -8
Anyone a member of YCharts? My computer goes into eternal spin mode when I attempt to see history back to 2007.
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Post by macwire on Jul 27, 2013 4:52:18 GMT -8
Fundamentals don't matter for tech stocks. If AAPL and AMZN aren't proof I have no idea what is
Market can remain irrational way longer then you can stay solvent. Ask any uber amzn bear.
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Post by macwire on Jul 27, 2013 4:52:45 GMT -8
[td][/td] Anyone a member of YCharts? My computer goes into eternal spin mode when I attempt to see history back to 2007. Tradingview dot com is the jam!
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Post by Deleted on Jul 27, 2013 6:21:17 GMT -8
Fundamentals don't matter for tech stocks. If AAPL and AMZN aren't proof I have no idea what is Market can remain irrational way longer then you can stay solvent. Ask any uber amzn bear. I don't accept an extended period of irrational exuberance as proof. But yeah, I'm not going to buy any puts on AMZN.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 27, 2013 8:03:11 GMT -8
Does anyone realize the Apple's 6.9B in net income for its June Quarter is 328% greater than the entirety of Amazon's 2.1B of net income since it opened?
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 27, 2013 8:21:12 GMT -8
But it's about revenue growth, not earnings... Earnings don't matter
( I'm going to get your blood pressure surging!)
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Post by Deleted on Jul 27, 2013 8:38:36 GMT -8
But it's about revenue growth, not earnings... Earnings don't matter ( I'm going to get your blood pressure surging!) I just popped an aspirin.
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Post by Lstream on Jul 27, 2013 8:43:57 GMT -8
Does anyone realize the Apple's 6.9B in net income for its June Quarter is 328% greater than the entirety of Amazon's 2.1B of net income since it opened? It is easy for the average investor to look at Amazon and see no serious competitor to what they do. I bet none of us can name a single relevant competitor for their core business. They are looked upon as the gorilla in the future of retail. I would never invest at these valuations, but their story is easy to understand and there is no threat to their business model. I suspect that there is belief that they can become more profitable when they feel like flipping that switch. But right now, their strategy is to become embedded in people's lives. And Bezos is real good at articulating his view of the world. But with Apple, there are perceived and real threats everywhere. People invest in the future, not the past. And there are many who see Apple as an impending has-been with dangerous competition. Not saying they are right, but Apple is clearly under attack from the likes of powerful companies like Samsung and Google. Who are Amazon's Samsung and Google? And Apple articulates their vision of the future very poorly. That hurts them in my view. This whole "we build great products and growth follows" comes across as snubbing their nose at conventional investing principles. It is hard to tell if they are right, arrogant, or have their heads buried in the sand with that attitude. My money is in Apple, not Amazon. I don't get Amazon's valuation either, but it is what it is.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 27, 2013 9:14:02 GMT -8
^ Well said.
But at that point when Amazon "flips the switch," don't they invite anti-trust scrutiny? And as vendors get more e-commerce sophisticated, what's the glue that Amazon has over another trusted brand, like Apple? Vendors HATE their "partnership" with Amazon and would LOVE some competition here.
In other words, is there an opportunity for another software platform without the heavy-handedness of Amazon? Buy.com doesn't have the brand power anymore to compete with Amazon. Why can't Apple's iTunes and its 600M account holders be an option for direct sales by vendors? All risk of inventory remains with the vendors and manufacturers, not Apple. Even Tim Cook has alluded to the opportunity with mobile payments and it's not a stretch to imagine that Apple start monetizing its customer list across goods and services outside current iTunes content.
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Post by chinacat on Jul 27, 2013 9:15:30 GMT -8
Tiernan Ray has been pretty even-handed in his commentary, and this quote from his earnings review echoed a topic recently covered by Horace. "ONE THING WAS MISSING in Yeung's grim assessment—the same thing many miss because they are focusing on Apple's hardware units. Apple controls a platform, one of the two dominant platforms in mobile computing, its iOS software, which is an effective duopoly with Google's Android. In the category of software and services, Apple sold $3.99 billion last quarter, which was up 25% from the year-earlier quarter. That was slower than the 37% growth recorded last year, but still impressive for a business running at $16 billion annually. Why is that important? Again and again, mobile market stats, and anecdotal evidence show that people want these devices increasingly for the applications and services they can consume with them. The same data suggest Apple's customers are willing to pay up for those apps and content and services somewhat more than users of Android. Being at the center of an ecosystem that makes money for app developers and advertisers and publishers is a position of control that Apple maintains that is still valuable even if the mobile device market is rather out of control right now." As also reflected in Tim's remarks on the call about the iPad's domination of Web traffic, Apple's post-sales monetization of its mobile devices, not only for itself but also for third parties, far exceeds any of its rivals but is usually ignored when comparing device profitability.
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