Mav
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Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Jul 29, 2013 0:02:57 GMT -8
A new day, as free from OpEx as we're gonna get. Can we make a run into the mid-440s and up today?
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Post by rickag on Jul 29, 2013 3:40:38 GMT -8
Well, at least the P/E is over 11 at the moment.
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Post by lance on Jul 29, 2013 4:51:24 GMT -8
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Post by qualitywte on Jul 29, 2013 4:52:50 GMT -8
All this talk about a low cost iPhone. Can someone please explain what will happen to the high cost iPhone? Will it remain?
I can see it as targeted for developing countries, but it seems like a risk of cannibalizing the current domestic market which is doing very well. I'm leary of these rumors. Maybe its just that the new iPhone is going to be released in different colors at the same price.
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Post by cbingle on Jul 29, 2013 5:37:49 GMT -8
Bought at the open at $440.38, will sell on or before Friday new IPhone start of sales.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 29, 2013 5:46:06 GMT -8
447 on 1.8 million shares......steady build
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Post by terps530 on Jul 29, 2013 5:51:35 GMT -8
2/2 on quick flips. Hey at least I'm out already and it's only 15minutes into monday. I won't hurt the weekly pain anymore Friday 3:50pm BTO aug 2nd 450 @ 3.00 Mon 9:43am STC aug 2nd 450 @ 5.60 slowly rebuilding...
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Post by appledoc on Jul 29, 2013 5:54:17 GMT -8
Hello! Keep chugging on.
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Post by lance on Jul 29, 2013 5:59:45 GMT -8
Out of BB by mutliple dollars. Short term reversal coming.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 29, 2013 6:02:23 GMT -8
All this talk about a low cost iPhone. Can someone please explain what will happen to the high cost iPhone? Will it remain? I can see it as targeted for developing countries, but it seems like a risk of cannibalizing the current domestic market which is doing very well. I'm leary of these rumors. Maybe its just that the new iPhone is going to be released in different colors at the same price. Yup - high cost premium iPhone will always remain. This years iPhone 5S or iPhone 6 will have better specs and possibly all new hardware/software features exclusive to it - there will always be a reason for people to consider the high end phone over the entry level model. However this year the question is what will happen to the midrange model. Currently it's the iPhone 4S, and if following the normal pattern the midrange model would become the iPhone 5. It will be interesting to see if that remains the case (i think it will) or if there will just be two iPhone choices (new entry level model + new premium model) but both in multiple storage options at different prices.
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Post by The Big Toe on Jul 29, 2013 6:05:34 GMT -8
I just KNEW it was Bob Mansfield holding back the stock price.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 29, 2013 6:14:13 GMT -8
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Mav
Member
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Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Jul 29, 2013 6:29:18 GMT -8
Nice trading so far! ;D
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Post by macwire on Jul 29, 2013 6:33:52 GMT -8
5m. Bull flagging. But probably needs a general market turn to hoist over 450 IMO.
Lance what time frame are you looking at for the bollinger?
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Post by artman1033 on Jul 29, 2013 6:46:14 GMT -8
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Post by tuffett on Jul 29, 2013 6:57:38 GMT -8
All this talk about a low cost iPhone. Can someone please explain what will happen to the high cost iPhone? Will it remain? I can see it as targeted for developing countries, but it seems like a risk of cannibalizing the current domestic market which is doing very well. I'm leary of these rumors. Maybe its just that the new iPhone is going to be released in different colors at the same price. It may cannibalize the domestic market somewhat, but it will devour competitors internationally. Most of the future growth is going to come internationally, so it makes sense to pursue a strategy that benefits that. Now add a bigger screen model and we're laughing.
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Post by ibuyer on Jul 29, 2013 7:15:53 GMT -8
TC is doubling downing on secrecy.
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Post by jdubuc on Jul 29, 2013 7:17:39 GMT -8
All this talk about a low cost iPhone. Can someone please explain what will happen to the high cost iPhone? Will it remain? I can see it as targeted for developing countries, but it seems like a risk of cannibalizing the current domestic market which is doing very well. I'm leary of these rumors. Maybe its just that the new iPhone is going to be released in different colors at the same price. Think iPad / iPad Mini, or Macbook Pro / MacBook. This is just basic market segmentation, and yes there will be cannibalism of the higher-end line, but the upside in terms of overall revenue should outweigh that. This move is more about the future of the platform though. Apple has a history of using lower-margin products as "gateway drugs" to the Apple ecosystem (iPod driving Mac sales), which we know to be extremely good at retaining customers. Those customers are then likely to move upmarket into the higher-margin "prosumer" products, and embrace the "halo effect" where they begin to purchase other Apple products to compliment their lower-margin iPad Mini or "iPhone 5C". Edit: Also important to note, while Apple doesn't care about being the market share leader, they do need to maintain enough "consumer App dollars share" to ensure that the best 3rd-party developers are developing for iOS as their primary mobile platform.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 29, 2013 7:28:56 GMT -8
447 on 1.8 million shares......steady build 11:30 AM volume is ~4.2 million shares. We should have been here an hour ago.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 29, 2013 7:36:40 GMT -8
The 5 Cs of the iPhone 5C:
The C designator can officially stand for:
- Color (referring to multiple color options) - Composite (referring to build marterial of casing) - Choice (choice of color, choice of prepay or contract etc)
And unofficially it also may refer to: - Cheaper - China Mobile compatible
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jul 29, 2013 7:47:44 GMT -8
All this talk about a low cost iPhone. Can someone please explain what will happen to the high cost iPhone? Will it remain? I can see it as targeted for developing countries, but it seems like a risk of cannibalizing the current domestic market which is doing very well. I'm leary of these rumors. Maybe its just that the new iPhone is going to be released in different colors at the same price. Think iPad / iPad Mini, or Macbook Pro / MacBook. This is just basic market segmentation, and yes there will be cannibalism of the higher-end line, but the upside in terms of overall revenue should outweigh that. This move is more about the future of the platform though. Apple has a history of using lower-margin products as "gateway drugs" to the Apple ecosystem (iPod driving Mac sales), which we know to be extremely good at retaining customers. Those customers are then likely to move upmarket into the higher-margin "prosumer" products, and embrace the "halo effect" where they begin to purchase other Apple products to compliment their lower-margin iPad Mini or "iPhone 5C". Edit: Also important to note, while Apple doesn't care about being the market share leader, they do need to maintain enough "consumer App dollars share" to ensure that the best 3rd-party developers are developing for iOS as their primary mobile platform. +1. Apple is just broadening its appeal throughout the world with a new, different form factor/color at a lower price.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 29, 2013 7:48:08 GMT -8
Think iPad / iPad Mini, or Macbook Pro / MacBook. This is just basic market segmentation, I just don't get it. All this talk about a new low cost iPhone. People have even speculated on how it can be accomplished (specs). We already have low cost iPhones, and they are already spec'd down. They don't fully support the latest version of iOS (making them dumbed down). They don't support LTE, which isn't available in emerging markets . We've had them for a couple of years. They amount to about 45% of total iPhone sales. Today, those "cheap" iPhones are called iPhone 4 and iPhone 4S. In October they will be called iPhone 4S and iPhone 5. We, as techno snobs, don't want them, because they are "old", but someone not able to afford the latest/greatest thinks they are amazing. Competing for the "smartphone", used like a feature phone, market is like chasing dimes with dollars. To answer the question about believing: No, I do not.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 29, 2013 7:56:29 GMT -8
This forum should be retitled to ARB Apple Rumor Board.
If we spent as much time analyzing Apple's 10Q, as we do arguing products that we may never see, its quite possible that we'd have seen the collapse of AAPL much, much sooner than we did, understood why it would go as low as it did, and take as long as it did to bottom and start to recover.
I'll bet fewer than 10 people on this forum have ever read a 10Q, and fewer still have read them all going back several years. But they could discuss every rumored new product ad infinitum (with links to those rumors).
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Post by pauls on Jul 29, 2013 8:00:07 GMT -8
It's not just talk. It's pictures, too! And why would you think that users would use a new form less expensive iPhone model as a feature phone? Do folks use their 4 and 4s phones that way? Their iPod touches? Apple NEEDS a new model if they want to make the lightening connector ubiquitous, and also support China Mobile. And I'll wager that sales of a new model will dwarf the impressive sales of the hand-me-down 4 and 4s. They can't just kick down the 5, it is too expensive to produce. Whether it is a good move or a bad move, it is coming. The rumors (and photos, and reporting) are way beyond the smoke stage. There were similar protests and disbelief in these pages with the iPad mini, the result of the presidential election, and the likelihood and benefits of both dividends and share buybacks. This is like those things, except with a lot more clues.
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Post by jdubuc on Jul 29, 2013 8:01:04 GMT -8
Today, those "cheap" iPhones are called iPhone 4 and iPhone 4S. In October they will be called iPhone 4S and iPhone 5. We, as techno snobs, don't want them, because they are "old", but someone not able to afford the latest/greatest thinks they are amazing. Competing for the "smartphone", used like a feature phone, market is like chasing dimes with dollars. To answer the question about believing: No, I do not. You may end up being right, but I definitely believe there will be a change to the "keep the old models around" strategy eventually. I don't think that the 'I don't want the "old" model' mentality is completely exclusive to the tech elite either. There are those who would choose a 2014 Hyundai over a 2011 Bimmer at the same price point. (Poor analogy, I know, but the point remains.) More importantly, I think about why this makes sense from Apple's perspective. Apple doesn't like fragmentation, they strive to eliminate it wherever they can. This is one reason that the iPad had a "mid-cadence" update to bring in Lightning and unify the connectors across the flagship models. From this perspective, iPhone 4S is a problem -- it not only has the old dock connector, but also the 3.5" screen. I think Apple has a substantial desire to unify at least the connector technology, and perhaps the display size/resolution as well, of the iPhone models they sell.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Jul 29, 2013 8:03:17 GMT -8
This forum should be retitled to ARB Apple Rumor Board. If we spent as much time analyzing Apple's 10Q, as we do arguing products that we may never see, its quite possible that we'd have seen the collapse of AAPL much, much sooner than we did, understood why it would go as low as it did, and take as long as it did to bottom and start to recover. I'll bet fewer than 10 people on this forum have ever read a 10Q, and fewer still have read them all going back several years. But they could discuss every rumored new product ad infinitum (with links to those rumors). Whether I agree with you or not, the fact is that product rumors are part of the AAPL zeitgeist for the investment community (retail, analysts, and institutions), likely affect sentiment for some in each of those categories, and thus are fair game for discussion on AFB, particularly in the Intraday thread where current reports/rumors of same may sway investment decisions.
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Mav
Member
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Post by Mav on Jul 29, 2013 8:05:39 GMT -8
Vote (against) AMZN! That's my vote for today. What's wrong with Apple product discussion? You don't see any edge in discussing the early exit of the 4S? It's tremendously relevant to Apple's GM for the entirety of next fiscal year.
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Post by jdubuc on Jul 29, 2013 8:07:04 GMT -8
There is also a case to be made for this rumored "iPhone 5C" from a bill-of-materials / gross margin perspective. I hypothesized in a previous post that the cost curve on the iPhone 4 & 4S has hit a floor resulting from the glass/aluminum construction as well as the 45nm fab process related to the A4/A5 SoC.
iPhone 5C has the potential to punch down through this floor by using a polycarb casing, and an A5 chip manufactured via 32nm fab process. This means that the 5C could eventually achieve greater gross margin than continuing to sell iPhone 4S.
Here's a post I made about 4 months ago regarding this -- I should warn, it's a bit technical
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Post by pauls on Jul 29, 2013 8:07:08 GMT -8
A new product is just as likely to affect the short to medium price of the stock than the minutiae of the 10Q. For good or bad. I think it is as simple as an attempt to put more devices into more hands, and thus make good on TC's new mantra of focusing on services. When the day comes that the smartphone market truly does plateau in any sort of international context, number of units will matter a great deal. Which is also why we have an iPad mini, despite the fact that Apple was 'doing fine' with just the full size model.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Jul 29, 2013 8:07:15 GMT -8
Think iPad / iPad Mini, or Macbook Pro / MacBook. This is just basic market segmentation, I just don't get it. All this talk about a new low cost iPhone. People have even speculated on how it can be accomplished (specs). We already have low cost iPhones, and they are already spec'd down. They don't fully support the latest version of iOS (making them dumbed down). They don't support LTE, which isn't available in emerging markets . We've had them for a couple of years. They amount to about 45% of total iPhone sales. Today, those "cheap" iPhones are called iPhone 4 and iPhone 4S. In October they will be called iPhone 4S and iPhone 5. We, as techno snobs, don't want them, because they are "old", but someone not able to afford the latest/greatest thinks they are amazing. Competing for the "smartphone", used like a feature phone, market is like chasing dimes with dollars. To answer the question about believing: No, I do not. Nor do I.
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