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Post by ibuyer on Jul 29, 2013 10:48:35 GMT -8
For next year maybe, not this year.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 29, 2013 10:48:56 GMT -8
Missed it by three minutes.... Very impressive
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 29, 2013 10:51:33 GMT -8
Even a cool cat squirrel with shades finds a nut sometimes...?
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Post by tuffett on Jul 29, 2013 10:51:43 GMT -8
Unfortunately it will also be ripped off by competitors with zero consequence. The feature can (and will) be cloned, but I think it will be harder to clone Apple's partnerships and ability to get developers and companies to build services surrounding it. Could be another great differentiator that way. I only hope Apple isn't too stubborn in their negotiating. No doubt Samsung will be throwing money at this and disregarding near term profits to get their foothold in the market. Apple should use the few months head start they have to their full advantage. I can't wait to show this to my LE buddy Joking aside, this obviously isn't a 100% done deal but it looks very, very good.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 29, 2013 10:51:52 GMT -8
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Post by tuffett on Jul 29, 2013 10:55:21 GMT -8
We honestly have some amazing contra-indicators here. I wonder if it's Apple's way of leaking info to us...
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 29, 2013 10:55:30 GMT -8
I wouldn't worry about copycats. And it's not like biometric systems are new anyway.
For the competition to pull it off, first they have to shove a system like Apple's into their smartphones. They can certainly try to infringe, of course, but reverse engineering takes time.
Then they have to make their biometric system work as well as Apple's. If Apple implements a biometric authentication system that's kinda like Keychain on steroids ("swipe to login/purchase") and just works super-smoothly system-wide, that's no small feat to imitate. (*cough smooth scrolling cough*) Google could be forced to software engineer for systemwide biometric authentication in their Android 4.4 or whatever. If they don't, welcome to the wonderful world of Android layers and awkward shoehorning by the OEMs.
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Post by rickag on Jul 29, 2013 10:58:51 GMT -8
Update from the ledge.... .......... Being called away and taking a short term gain of the profit would mean that about 44% of the gain (35 Fed, 9 State) would go to fund the retirement of DMV employees. ......... I wish I could help you, but you seem to have an excellent handle on your goals. But your quote above made me LOL.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 29, 2013 10:59:43 GMT -8
I'd suggest that if you have no interest in anticipating the future, high beta tech is not an ideal stock type for you to be following. There's a world of difference between being a futurist, and investing. Your post is a great example of looking to stick it to the messenger, while ignoring the message. What I posted, quite clearly, is that I believe I discovered the "why" in their exodus. I discovered it embedded, not in a single 10Q, but in a chart built on 9 years of 10Qs. The why was in the last 2 years. The point is that it was found, and might have been found (by myself or another), much earlier if the focus had been less on vaporware, and more on Apple. Not surprising the argument that ensued hasn't elicited a single question as to what that data point was, or can we benefit from that data point in the future. The "self-rightousness" is ignoring the message.
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Post by tuffett on Jul 29, 2013 11:05:56 GMT -8
I wouldn't worry about copycats. And it's not like biometric systems are new anyway. For the competition to pull it off, first they have to shove a system like Apple's into their smartphones. They can certainly try to infringe, of course, but reverse engineering takes time. Then they have to make their biometric system work as well as Apple's. If Apple implements a biometric authentication system that's kinda like Keychain on steroids ("swipe to login/purchase") and just works super-smoothly system-wide, that's no small feat to imitate. (*cough smooth scrolling cough*) Google could be forced to software engineer for systemwide biometric authentication in their Android 4.4 or whatever. If they don't, welcome to the wonderful world of Android layers and awkward shoehorning by the OEMs. Good points. Although Samsung did essentially copy the entire iPhone in three short months. And we know it doesn't have to be better to have success, especially with Samsung's new and improved brand image.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 29, 2013 11:09:59 GMT -8
For next year maybe, not this year. Disagree. Apple's not dropping software functionality in NOW for a future iPhone next year. Makes zero sense.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 29, 2013 11:11:23 GMT -8
Gruber on the Mansfield new role...nothing here to worry about.
_______________________________________
Everybody Loves Bob¡¯ Monday, 29 July 2013 After asking around, word on the Cupertino street is that there¡¯s nothing to read between the lines regarding Bob Mansfield no longer being on Apple¡¯s executive team. Apple¡¯s statement means exactly what it says ¡ª Mansfield is well-liked at all levels within the company and truly is working on special projects (read: new products). No euphemism there. Compare and contrast with last year¡¯s ouster of Scott Forstall, where Apple said:
Apple also announced that Scott Forstall will be leaving Apple next year and will serve as an advisor to CEO Tim Cook in the interim.
¡°Advisor¡± was a euphemism. ¡°Working on special projects¡± means just that.
There¡¯s nothing punitive with Mansfield¡¯s role change, nor health problems or anything like that. Just a more focused role on certain new products. His un-retirement as a senior vice president last year was always intended to be transitional, not permanent.
Outside the company, we were surprised that Mansfield¡¯s return as an SVP turned out to be temporary. Inside Apple, they seem surprised that we¡¯d read juicy backstage intrigue into his simply being removed from their executive list. ¡ï
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 29, 2013 11:13:12 GMT -8
Three short months? The Galaxy S we all know and "love" is a creation of June 2010...
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Post by Mav on Jul 29, 2013 11:14:24 GMT -8
Mercel, depends on if ibuyer meant "next year" for the competition or for the iPhone.
Gurman's source points to this September for iPhone 5S(canner).
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Post by rickag on Jul 29, 2013 11:15:57 GMT -8
For next year maybe, not this year. Disagree. Apple's not dropping software functionality in NOW for a future iPhone next year. Makes zero sense. I agree, hope this doesn't delay the iPhone 5S. It sure looks like Apple will be introducing the less expensive iPhone 5C and potentially a game changing iPhone feature.
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Post by jdrizzo89 on Jul 29, 2013 11:16:43 GMT -8
Greg your analytical style is always refreshing. What is this metric or decline that you found and has it changed yet? Best regards.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 29, 2013 11:17:25 GMT -8
iPhone 5C + no new iPhone = AAPL tanks. Considering that Apple doesn't miss iPhone launches (the 4S being an "exception" of sorts), I don't get the "fear" that the 5S will be delayed.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 29, 2013 11:17:27 GMT -8
So, what do you think? Is it wise to sell the longer term calls to get a 15% tax rate instead of a potential 35%? Are there risks here that I am missing? There are many people in this board with sharper pencils than I. I welcome your insights. Of course, it depends on what you think AAPL trend will be between sale and Expiry, but instead of selling Calls at $475, you might think about Selling Puts. An August $440 Put is selling at $6.00. The AUG $445 Put is selling for $8.25. IF AAPL Closes above your chosen Strike you keep the entire premium. You only lose money if AAPL closes below you Strike minus the premium you received. In the case of the $440 Put you realize no gain (and begin losing) with a Close at $434.00. Anything above that Close and you make money, with maximum profit derived at $440. In the case of the $445 Put you realize no gain (and begin losing) with a Close at $436.75. Anything above that Close and you make money, with maximum profit derived at $445. Just a thought.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 29, 2013 11:22:21 GMT -8
So, what do you think? Is it wise to sell the longer term calls to get a 15% tax rate instead of a potential 35%? Are there risks here that I am missing? There are many people in this board with sharper pencils than I. I welcome your insights. Of course, it depends on what you think AAPL trend will be between sale and Expiry, but instead of selling Calls at $475, you might think about Selling Puts. An August $440 Put is selling at $6.00. The AUG $445 Put is selling for $8.25. IF AAPL Closes above your chosen Strike you keep the entire premium. You only lose money if AAPL closes below you Strike minus the premium you received. In the case of the $440 Put you realize no gain (and begin losing) with a Close at $434.00. Anything above that Close and you make money, with maximum profit derived at $440. In the case of the $445 Put you realize no gain (and begin losing) with a Close at $436.75. Anything above that Close and you make money, with maximum profit derived at $445. Just a thought. It's his mortgage on his primary residence...not that it would happen, but if Apple went to $100 or less in that time frame, he would get crippled and lose everything. Yes, I know it's a 1 in a Million (or less chance), but the chances of Apple being sub $400 are not. Selling the Jan 15 $550 calls sounds like a great idea to me. You get a solid premium and there's no risk, other than limiting your upside, but as you said, you'd still make $100,000 plus the $20,000 from selling the calls.
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Post by ibuyer on Jul 29, 2013 11:27:22 GMT -8
For next year maybe, not this year. Disagree. Apple's not dropping software functionality in NOW for a future iPhone next year. Makes zero sense. The feature will be a "killer app" until the Apple and other developer build for it. That takes time and not guaranteed. See Passbook and Siri. edit: To be more clear - fingerprint better come out this year. Won't be killer app until next year.
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Post by tuffett on Jul 29, 2013 11:28:42 GMT -8
Three short months? The Galaxy S we all know and "love" is a creation of June 2010... I'm referring to this quote from the trial: Apple vs Samsung closing arguments: "It took you three months to copy what we've been developing for five years"
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Post by Deleted on Jul 29, 2013 11:34:21 GMT -8
Mercel, depends on if ibuyer meant "next year" for the competition or for the iPhone. Gurman's source points to this September for iPhone 5S(canner). Any delay of the iPhone 5s (for security) would delay the 5c, as both would likely be launched together. iOS7 is on track, and I just installed Beta4
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Post by jdubuc on Jul 29, 2013 11:39:00 GMT -8
iOS7 is on track, and I just installed Beta4 Any thoughts so far? Performance seems improved, and many of the little glitches here & there in beta 3 seem to be fixed. There's still a few animation hitches and stutters, as well as some visual artifacts, but to me this is looking well on-target for September.
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Post by po1nt on Jul 29, 2013 11:43:53 GMT -8
Wow, GOOG chart is looking terrible. AAPL's on the other hand... well
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 29, 2013 11:58:37 GMT -8
I think the Oct butterfly's enough AAPL for me for now.
Short AMZN side bet (my god, the theta/volatility is worse than I thought)
Short GOOG BPS. Maybe it's having a mini Sep/Oct 12 AAPL moment.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 29, 2013 12:00:58 GMT -8
iOS7 is on track, and I just installed Beta4 Any thoughts so far? Performance seems improved, and many of the little glitches here & there in beta 3 seem to be fixed. There's still a few animation hitches and stutters, as well as some visual artifacts, but to me this is looking well on-target for September. More polish. Fixing issues with text overlaps inside mail app at the top, other issues I'll look for later. Color choices for text inside Apple apps appear to be tweaked (still not crazy with color choices on Reminders and Notes. NewsBar app is working better with links to articles coming up, mostly. Good day and glad it occurred on a Monday, with OI adjusting upward.
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Post by doublerainbow on Jul 29, 2013 12:09:32 GMT -8
Wow, GOOG chart is looking terrible. AAPL's on the other hand... well about time.
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Post by nagrani on Jul 29, 2013 12:10:11 GMT -8
Mercel - In your opinion - is the new software a game changer from an experience standpoint?
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Post by lovemyipad on Jul 29, 2013 12:34:21 GMT -8
Target: 455....
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Post by Deleted on Jul 29, 2013 12:35:46 GMT -8
Mercel - In your opinion - is the new software a game changer from an experience standpoint? I think it depends more on what the developers do with the APIs. The new functionality is very welcome. It's a solid upgrade on the OS / UI side, but from my reading and experience, it has added features that have been available on Android, without the fragmentation, UI inconsistencies, etc. I have some issues with the appearance of the icons but these can be tweaked. The animations are nice in the UI, Much better than the distraction of what u find on the Windows phones. iRadio is GREAT. Control Center is something I've wished for a long time. Customization of the lock screen is nice, with translucency adding to an attractive aesthetic. There are other things I'm sure I've overlooked.
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