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Post by Deleted on Jul 29, 2013 12:45:38 GMT -8
Target: 455.... Timeline please
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Post by tuffett on Jul 29, 2013 12:54:49 GMT -8
One word to describe iOS 7 - efficiency. I find myself so much more efficient after using this for a couple of weeks. Two touches to turn on Bluetooth and access the flashlight. One touch to see the latest quotes on the stocks I follow. Swipe back and forward from anywhere on the screen (this is a big step in making larger screen phones more practical - less need to access the corners...)
Visually, the change was initially jarring but now very welcome. Not thrilled about some icons but that's minor relative to the entire visual overhaul of iOS as a whole. The translucency is nice and looks natural. I occasionally get the old keyboard in some of the apps I use and I laugh at how archaic it looks.
Overall, I like the design and love the boost to functionality and productivity. Expect some initial grumbles from people who hate change but it will all be forgotten in short order.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jul 29, 2013 12:56:19 GMT -8
Target: 455.... Timeline please After we take out 452. I never know timeframe. I just take it level by level.
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Post by jmolloy on Jul 29, 2013 13:52:04 GMT -8
Two touches to turn on the flashlight. Unless you're running the camera app...
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Post by Deleted on Jul 29, 2013 13:52:07 GMT -8
Weird AH errors with stock prices. AMZN traded down $5.91 during regular session and up exact $ in AH. Apple is the reverse. It's an error, don't be alarmed.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 29, 2013 13:53:00 GMT -8
Attachments:
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Post by Deleted on Jul 29, 2013 13:54:11 GMT -8
Fixed already. Strange. Both CNBC and Yahoo were reporting odd AH pops and drops.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 29, 2013 14:19:37 GMT -8
As an AMZN short, I was...concerned temporarily. Checked my platform's live order book - nothing amiss. Maybe just bullish shenanigans to scare bears, or just some bozo buying way too high.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 29, 2013 14:28:21 GMT -8
Greg your analytical style is always refreshing. What is this metric or decline that you found and has it changed yet? Best regards. After 16 Quarters of triple digit, or high double digit, YoY growth iPhone YoY growth dropped into low double digit growth After only 4 quarters of triple digit growth iPad dropped into low double digit growth After 9 quarters of 27% (average) YoY growth Macs dropped into low single digit growth. After averaging 89% YoY growth Revenue dropped to 46% growth. After growing 48% (over 4 years), GM% dropped 18% in a single quarter. The inflection point for all of this was FQ3/2012 (June quarter reported in July). Nearly everyone was focused on the quarter at hand, which was showing record numbers. Nobody was focused on overall trend (including myself). The debate then, as it is now, was on rumored products of the future. When I did start looking back I zeroed in on YoY change in GM and described it as a bad compare, due to the unusually high GMs Apple had been reporting just before the bubble burst. I did not see the change from historical trend in Revenue and product unit sales, individually, or as a group. editTo answer the second part of your question I think the downward trend in all of the above has bottomed. I base this on management's Guidance. Previous Guidance has averaged about 6% above the lower of Guidance range, and when given that ~6% delta has been very near the upper range. This quarter management increased the size of the range to ~9%, with the upper end of the range exceeding last year's reported Revenue by $1 Billion. Additionally, at every opportunity TC has tried to impress WS with Apple's perception of the strength of new products to be launched "in the fall" and throughout 2014 (don't know if he is referring to calendar or fiscal year). This may not be very much, but when taken with TC's contra statements regarding premium smartphone saturation and the Galaxy's poor showing, is enough for me. Looking forward, since earnings I have revised my FQ1/2012 estimates downward, and am now modeling ~$60 Billion in Revenue. Given how tight Apple now guides, if that number is accurate, then I would expect Apple to Guide FQ1/2014 at ~$55 Billion on the lower end. That's $21 Billion ABOVE FQ4/2013 low end Guidance. If you don't think WS isn't making forecasts for FQ1/2014 you are spending to much time worrying product specs. I'll bet they find Apple's/AAPL's FQ1 prospects extremely alluring. Note: AAPL was up very strong today (1.54%), yet did not show up on the Selling on Strength list. Further, Institutional ownership has increased (buyback adjusted) by ~0.5% since earnings.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 29, 2013 15:13:01 GMT -8
Another observation (if you haven't had enough), I am concerned about iPad unit sales for FQ4/2013. Unit sales growth YoY dropped out of triple digits after just 4 quarters, and was down in FQ3/2013 (YoY), and I believe will be virtually flat for FQ4/2013. Whatever bump the Mini provided, it didn't last long. OTOH, I expect F2014 to grow about 40+% over F2013, fueled mostly by a single purchase by the Los Angeles School Board.
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Post by tuffett on Jul 29, 2013 15:17:37 GMT -8
Another observation (if you haven't had enough), I am concerned about iPad unit sales for FQ4/2013. Unit sales growth YoY dropped out of triple digits after just 4 quarters, and was down in FQ3/2013 (YoY), and I believe will be virtually flat for FQ4/2013. Whatever bump the Mini provided, it didn't last long. OTOH, I expect F2014 to grow about 40+% over F2013, fueled mostly by a single purchase by the Los Angeles School Board. You're kidding right? 640,000 units is going to be the meat behind a 40% increase in an entire fiscal year? Please double check your math.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 29, 2013 15:19:30 GMT -8
Of course, it depends on what you think AAPL trend will be between sale and Expiry, but instead of selling Calls at $475, you might think about Selling Puts. An August $440 Put is selling at $6.00. The AUG $445 Put is selling for $8.25. IF AAPL Closes above your chosen Strike you keep the entire premium. You only lose money if AAPL closes below you Strike minus the premium you received. In the case of the $440 Put you realize no gain (and begin losing) with a Close at $434.00. Anything above that Close and you make money, with maximum profit derived at $440. In the case of the $445 Put you realize no gain (and begin losing) with a Close at $436.75. Anything above that Close and you make money, with maximum profit derived at $445. Just a thought. It's his mortgage on his primary residence...not that it would happen, but if Apple went to $100 or less in that time frame, he would get crippled and lose everything. Yes, I know it's a 1 in a Million (or less chance), but the chances of Apple being sub $400 are not.Selling the Jan 15 $550 calls sounds like a great idea to me. You get a solid premium and there's no risk, other than limiting your upside, but as you said, you'd still make $100,000 plus the $20,000 from selling the calls. So put in a Stop Loss when your "loss" equals the Premium you received. Worst case is that you give back the Premium.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 29, 2013 15:22:44 GMT -8
I'm feeling very snarky this afternoon...so here is a fun story about the waterproof Samesung S4....Active... ("Aqua mode" indeed) _http://www.reddit.com/r/Android/comments/1j8xsk/a_warning_to_all_galaxy_s4_active_users_upvote/______________________________ A WARNING to all GALAXY S4 ACTIVE USERS! Upvote for VISABILITY! (self.Android) submitted 21 hours ago by S4ACTIVEWARNING Throwaway for I work for AT&T and I could get fired if they found out I did all this. I posted this on XDA as well so refer to this thread: forum.xda-developers.com/showthread.php?p=44055783#post44055783This phone is not truly waterproof/resistant!!!!! First off I want to start this off buy saying a few things. I work for AT&T so before anyone says its from improper usage remember I had to watch training videos on how to properly use it. Also, before anyone says well, you aren't really supposed to be using it in the water, you are wrong. The first thing we are trained on is how to properly close the back cover and how to show the customers Aqua mode to take pictures underwater. We actively use this as a main selling point, this is per Samsung. Here is my story. I bought the Active on Thursday. The first thing I did with it was ensure the back was closed and made a video in my fish tank so I could show customers how it works underwater, and how good aqua mode is. That worked out perfectly except the video was a little dark, so I figured I would retake it. In this time I had a customer swap out the phone they bought because it were defective, the bottom buttons stopped working on it. She was very vague when the water question came up but I thought nothing of it. Now cue today. It was sunny outside so I thought it was the perfect time to reshoot the fish tank video. I ensured the back was secure, yes, including pressing down on the back where the AT&T logo is. I then submerged the phone in the tank while taking the video. Almost instantly the phone screen went black and said dock mode was enabled so I took the phone out of the water and everything went back to normal. I double checked the USB rubber to be sure. I just chalked it up to the phone doing crazy things in the water. I have read almost everywhere that the phone will say headphones are plugged in, etc. So I thought this was normal. I then put it back in and took a minute long video. Everything was fine. I even played back the video and it was fully working. This is where everything went wrong. About 2 minutes later the phone started tweaking out, Google now opened on its own and the buttons were really sensitive. Then the buttons completely stopped working other than the power button and that's when I freaked out. I opened the battery cover and there it was, everything was soaked. but luckily none of the water damage indicators were colored. I then opened the USB door and it was like a fountain, so that's where the breach happened. The flimsy, rubber USB door. I did not tell a soul what happened and went back to work and swapped it for a regular Galaxy S4. So please listen to my warning. There are way too many people getting this phone damaged, including me, a fully trained AT&T employee who took the proper precautions before doing anything. Samsung should not be able to get away with calling this phone water resistant or water proof, and they should especially not include an Aqua Camera mode. Also the warranty DOES NOT, I REPEAT, DOES NOT COVER WATER!!!! I want Samsung to see this, we seriously can't have them get away with the advertising on this phone, there are way too many cases of this phone getting damaged with correct usage!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 29, 2013 15:24:26 GMT -8
Sellthrough tells the story.
Only now are we getting the data to stitch together a complete picture. Hopefully we continue to get these data points going forward.
Also, seasonality > sellthrough. Should iPads refresh either sooner than November or just plain _without significant supply constraint_ in the same period - welcome to a changed compare.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 29, 2013 15:25:15 GMT -8
Another observation (if you haven't had enough), I am concerned about iPad unit sales for FQ4/2013. Unit sales growth YoY dropped out of triple digits after just 4 quarters, and was down in FQ3/2013 (YoY), and I believe will be virtually flat for FQ4/2013. Whatever bump the Mini provided, it didn't last long. OTOH, I expect F2014 to grow about 40+% over F2013, fueled mostly by a single purchase by the Los Angeles School Board. You're kidding right? 640,000 units is going to be the meat behind a 40% increase in an entire fiscal year? Please double check your math. That's what I get for not explaining in greater detail. My bad. I do not think the LA purchase will be the only one of its kind in 2014. I'm also expecting 2% GDP growth with declining unemployment. The newly employed won't buy that many, but Consumer Spending will increase as Consumer Sentiment goes up on better economic news. I should commend you for catching that apparent error.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 29, 2013 15:28:07 GMT -8
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 29, 2013 15:29:41 GMT -8
Another observation (if you haven't had enough), I am concerned about iPad unit sales for FQ4/2013. Unit sales growth YoY dropped out of triple digits after just 4 quarters, and was down in FQ3/2013 (YoY), and I believe will be virtually flat for FQ4/2013. Whatever bump the Mini provided, it didn't last long. OTOH, I expect F2014 to grow about 40+% over F2013, fueled mostly by a single purchase by the Los Angeles School Board. You're kidding right? 640,000 units is going to be the meat behind a 40% increase in an entire fiscal year? Please double check your math. I think the latest rumor is that the LA School Board may be in the market for something like several million ipads.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 29, 2013 15:29:53 GMT -8
You'll be here all week? "The Betta Beta". Or "I Can't Believe It's Not Beta!"? (It's looking great so far!)
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 29, 2013 15:32:57 GMT -8
9M iPads << 40% YOY increase, considering iPads will probably come in a little shy of 75M units sell-in for fiscal '13?
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Post by tuffett on Jul 29, 2013 15:37:20 GMT -8
You're kidding right? 640,000 units is going to be the meat behind a 40% increase in an entire fiscal year? Please double check your math. That's what I get for not explaining in greater detail. My bad. I do not think the LA purchase will be the only one of its kind in 2014. I'm also expecting 2% GDP growth with declining unemployment. The newly employed won't buy that many, but Consumer Spending will increase as Consumer Sentiment goes up on better economic news. I should commend you for catching that apparent error. Understood. Education is certainly a key market but even with a few districts on board it's not going to contribute significantly to total numbers in a single year. These deals take time and often start with a smaller purchase. Over the years they will certainly play a larger role, both in sales and in immersing kids into the iOS ecosystem.
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Post by artman1033 on Jul 29, 2013 15:39:56 GMT -8
in other news:
A certain important man will speak at an Amazon facility Tuesday.
I choose not to link or speak anymore of this, for fear that it will be moved to a different thread.
It should not be market moving.
To me, it is an example of what is wrong with everything.
If you follow the news, you will learn about this soon, if you don't already know who I am speaking about.
It will be interesting to hear that speech.
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Post by appledoc on Jul 29, 2013 15:42:17 GMT -8
I thought today's action was WHEEEEE worthy. But I'm guessing that iPad will let it rip later this week.
The chart looks damn good. Best it's been since last summer.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 29, 2013 15:43:38 GMT -8
Not to toot my own horn, but I've wondered when the tablet market will get out of the "purgatory" between PMP-type media players (I dunno, 30-50M?) and PCs (~350ish M) in terms of units.
iPad mini retina is the first step to seeing if the iPad market may have a near-term ceiling. There's also the intriguing possibility of cheaper iPad mini 1s sticking around...
appledoc - Mostly agree! Not sure if it's due for a small retrace, but the overall trend still looks great!
One good scenario for tomorrow - retest and hold above the downtrend that was just broken.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 29, 2013 15:46:52 GMT -8
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 29, 2013 16:03:07 GMT -8
Hiring all those people will put a strain on (cough) profits.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jul 29, 2013 16:17:58 GMT -8
PROFITS? Nope - Amazon does not understand that word...but I guess they don't have to - they just show their free pass and get through. Would love to see the expiration date on that pass! I'm not even playing the name...but I just want justice.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 29, 2013 16:19:38 GMT -8
You need to speak to Mercel, phoebear. ;D
(I'm a nervous small put buyer in AMZN right now.)
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Post by JDSoCal on Jul 29, 2013 16:29:37 GMT -8
How much did product speculation benefit your investment decisions of the past 12 months? Didn't help me either, but it did take away from examining Apple's 10Q in depth. Recently, looking for something else, my spreadsheets revealed a set up to what I believe caused the institutions to flee AAPL. Sorry Gregg, but I thought the one thing everyone on this board agreed upon was that there is zero correlation between Apple's fundamentals and its share price. There wasn't at $700, and there sure as shit wasn't at $400. You're Sentiment Guy. All we heard for the last 2 years was a drumbeat of "Apple is dead," or "Apple has stopped innovating." Clearly upcoming products are the one thing that can change perception, even that perception is full of shit. Ship good products with good margins, and sentiment will turn. Or not.
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Post by ericinaustin on Jul 29, 2013 17:53:45 GMT -8
Hiring all those people will put a strain on (cough) profits. PROFITS? We don't need no stinking profits. ( twists his thin handlebar mustache )
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Post by Deleted on Jul 29, 2013 18:05:53 GMT -8
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