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Post by Lstream on Jul 30, 2013 11:09:22 GMT -8
If I were the founders of Google I'd quietly reduce my holdings to Zero and walk away. Be careful what you say .... that is a "Dellism" I despise Google as much as anyone on this board but they are a force to be reckoned with. As much as Samsung can copy hardware so can Motorola. Samsung had better watch itself before Google decides to cut them off at the knees by crippling Android. I'm not sure what is legally demanded of Google since they are giving the Android OS away for free but I agree with Artman .. only difference is I'd only update Android for Moto and quit working on previous versions .... Plus Google's performance is derived from search/ads, not Android. Android can turn into a festering mess, and it will not have much impact on Google's overall results.
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Post by artman1033 on Jul 30, 2013 11:10:24 GMT -8
WHOA!Can I buy you a beer? Or a good stiff drink? It's 5 o'clock somewhere! There are some dancing girls downstairs....... I know their, ummmm... their......manager. I can arrange a private dance.
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Post by tuffett on Jul 30, 2013 11:12:25 GMT -8
it'd be a pretty epic mistake to include any traces of a "BiometricsUIKit" that's over a year away from launch in a beta of iOS _7_, wouldn't it? We ...don't ...know ...what ...Apple ...is ...thinking ...doing. Ergo, it doesn't matter beyond satisfying our own insatiable need to play guessing games. Let the flames begin. What impact do your earnings estimates have? Does submitting your numbers to PED do anything but satisfy your insatiable need to play guessing games and be praised or ridiculed by your successes or failures?
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Post by tuffett on Jul 30, 2013 11:15:30 GMT -8
I expect Android to go on because it is a hugely successful brand that has made its way onto a billion devices. Most people don't know or care about fragmentation and security issues - Android connotes a positive brand image. Killing it off or allowing it to "wither and die" will harm Google's image.
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Post by artman1033 on Jul 30, 2013 11:21:03 GMT -8
in other news, may not be AAPL related, probably not market moving...
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Post by Deleted on Jul 30, 2013 11:22:55 GMT -8
LStream, it'd be a pretty epic mistake to include any traces of a "BiometricsUIKit" that's over a year away from launch in a beta of iOS _7_, wouldn't it? Granted I'm assuming new iPhone, new iOS, but that's a pretty safe assumption given past history. Agreed. If there was a mistake, it's more likely that it was added in beta 4 vs. on the GM or the beta preceding it. I simply don't believe this gets added without appearing on this year's iPhone. With all the work between each beta, someone adds a package for a feature in next year's product? Very unlikely IMO. And someone else here speculated the S in 5S stands for security, which is good speculation IMO.
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Post by jdubuc on Jul 30, 2013 11:24:40 GMT -8
Assuming that the 5S does include a biometric sensor of some kind (yes, complete crystal ball stuff here -- sorry Gregg), does this impact the BoM and resulting gross margin of the 5S? The 4S brought all-time high margins when Apple was able to leverage a mature process and launch a new product based on an existing cost-curve that had already been driven down. Something similar would bode well for 5S gross margin and in theory we should expect an uptick in the first or second quarter of availability? Edit: It looks like in 2007 AuthenTec was delivering sensors at a cost of < $5 in quantity, so perhaps immaterial. Source
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 30, 2013 11:29:48 GMT -8
Being able to login to anything with a fingerprint swipe after some initial setup would be _amazing_.
I never have to worry about outsiders messing with my phone ever again if I set up a fingerprint requirement.
I can login to my wonky mobile trading platform app when it logs me out without any keystrokes.
I can authenticate anything that needs authentication in any app, including Safari (via Keychain).
I might be able to associate my fingerprint with my credit card info, so I just scan my fingerprint to pay for stuff.
That's just the top-of-mind applications. It's like Time Machine for security. Security without thinking. Quintessential Apple and a very meaningful differentiator.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 30, 2013 11:34:15 GMT -8
Plus Google's performance is derived from search/ads, not Android. Android can turn into a festering mess, and it will not have much impact on Google's overall results. Yep. Until the paradigm of defaulting to Google for search and maps is disrupted, Google will still (mostly) get its due. One small quibble though - without its own platform it'll be harder for Google to make its apps and services (Google Now, etc.) work as well as they might like to. Of course polish isn't really Google's game - I use Google Maps over Apple Maps still, but UI and *cough* smooth scrolling differences are night and day.
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Post by calvinav on Jul 30, 2013 11:35:13 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Jul 30, 2013 11:38:33 GMT -8
I use Google Maps over Apple Maps still.... That's adultery. Shame on you.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 30, 2013 11:39:26 GMT -8
I don't like being told to drive off embankments as Siri occasionally "helpfully" suggests. ;D
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Post by Lstream on Jul 30, 2013 11:43:21 GMT -8
Assuming that the 5S does include a biometric sensor of some kind (yes, complete crystal ball stuff here -- sorry Gregg), does this impact the BoM and resulting gross margin of the 5S? The 4S brought all-time high margins when Apple was able to leverage a mature process and launch a new product based on an existing cost-curve that had already been driven down. Something similar would bode well for 5S gross margin and in theory we should expect an uptick in the first or second quarter of availability? Edit: It looks like in 2007 AuthenTec was delivering sensors at a cost of < $5 in quantity, so perhaps immaterial. SourcePlus I would hope that the real win here is that Apple gets a piece of the payments processing revenue attached to this new capability. So that whatever the BOM hit turns out to be, it is made back many times over in lifetime ecosystem revenue.
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Post by jdubuc on Jul 30, 2013 11:48:14 GMT -8
Plus I would hope that the real win here is that Apple gets a piece of the payments processing revenue attached to this new capability. So that whatever the BOM hit turns out to be, it is made back many times over in lifetime ecosystem revenue. Well said. This would be an ecosystem play and differentiator unlikely to be easily ripped off by Samsung and others. Could become very interesting if this can leverage all those iTunes accounts out there with credit card information already linked up. I've been saying for years that I eagerly await the day someone comes along to kill PayPal, perhaps this is the first blow.
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Post by Lstream on Jul 30, 2013 11:55:16 GMT -8
Plus I would hope that the real win here is that Apple gets a piece of the payments processing revenue attached to this new capability. So that whatever the BOM hit turns out to be, it is made back many times over in lifetime ecosystem revenue. Well said. This would be an ecosystem play and differentiator unlikely to be easily ripped off by Samsung and others. Could become very interesting if this can leverage all those iTunes accounts out there with credit card information already linked up. I've been saying for years that I eagerly await the day someone comes along to kill PayPal, perhaps this is the first blow. If they wish to leverage iTunes, I hope they combine it with multiple profiles. So that my business expenses don't end up on my personal credit card or other way around. My limited experience with Square shows the power and convenience of Mobile Payment processing.
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Post by terps530 on Jul 30, 2013 12:00:23 GMT -8
in other news, my facebook ipo shares are within cents of being even!
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Post by Deleted on Jul 30, 2013 12:13:03 GMT -8
Sometimes the metrics I devise scare the shit out of me. For instance:
I took a look at unit growth rates based on a 2 year update cycle. I averaged the growth rate over three like periods. Then I calculated the Margin of Error between forecasted results and actual results. I applied all that to unit sales from FQ1/2012 to arrive at estimated unit sales for FQ1/2014. I got 67,000,000 iPhone units during the December quarter.
Before doing this, using different logarithms, I was forecasting 61,000,000 iPhone units for the December quarter.
I'll bet a real statistician could refine my formulas (and results), but I'll bet the result would still be in the 60+ million neighborhood.
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Post by bud777 on Jul 30, 2013 12:28:22 GMT -8
Sometimes the metrics I devise scare the shit out of me. For instance: I took a look at unit growth rates based on a 2 year update cycle. I averaged the growth rate over three like periods. Then I calculated the Margin of Error between forecasted results and actual results. I applied all that to unit sales from FQ1/2012 to arrive at estimated unit sales for FQ1/2014. I got 67,000,000 iPhone units during the December quarter. Before doing this, using different logarithms, I was forecasting 61,000,000 iPhone units for the December quarter. I'll bet a real statistician could refine my formulas (and results), but I'll bet the result would still be in the 60+ million neighborhood. Did you mean "using different algorithms"? I was not sure how logarithms fit into this. Were you fitting to the log of the data? One underlying danger of this kind of approach is that it is based on an assumption of independence in the data. Another is that you need sufficient data for the Central Limit Theorem to be valid. (At least 10-15 data points). I am not a statistician, but I did sleep at a Holiday Inn 40 years ago.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 30, 2013 12:31:56 GMT -8
Not like I'd mind the 5S moniker, considering the 4S. "I wonder, does the "S" also stand for "sales"? I'll wager it stands for Steroid
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Post by lovemyipad on Jul 30, 2013 12:38:20 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Jul 30, 2013 12:39:14 GMT -8
Did you mean "using different algorithms"? I was not sure how logarithms fit into this. Were you fitting to the log of the data? One underlying danger of this kind of approach is that it is based on an assumption of independence in the data. Another is that you need sufficient data for the Central Limit Theorem to be valid. (At least 10-15 data points). I am not a statistician, but I did sleep at a Holiday Inn 40 years ago. Yep. I'll bet this was a spell check issue. I agree, these kinds of analysis are fraught with dangers. I tried using QoQ results (to get more data points) with Standard Deviations, but the range was pretty wide, too wide to be useful.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 30, 2013 12:49:40 GMT -8
Assuming that the 5S does include a biometric sensor of some kind (yes, complete crystal ball stuff here -- sorry Gregg), does this impact the BoM and resulting gross margin of the 5S? The 4S brought all-time high margins when Apple was able to leverage a mature process and launch a new product based on an existing cost-curve that had already been driven down. Something similar would bode well for 5S gross margin and in theory we should expect an uptick in the first or second quarter of availability? Edit: It looks like in 2007 AuthenTec was delivering sensors at a cost of < $5 in quantity, so perhaps immaterial. Source Plus I would hope that the real win here is that Apple gets a piece of the payments processing revenue attached to this new capability. So that whatever the BOM hit turns out to be, it is made back many times over in lifetime ecosystem revenue.My credit card Merchant Service charges 3.0% (forget the offers to get you to sign up) plus transaction fees. With Apple's cash, and the ability to do ACH transfers, I can see Apple reducing merchant fees by .5% and still making 1 point on each transaction. The reduction in merchant fee is greatly offset by the increased security (less fraud) that fingerprint ID brings. editChanged .05% to .5%
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Post by Deleted on Jul 30, 2013 12:57:24 GMT -8
Looks like tomorrow's trading will cause the 20 SMA to surpass the 50 SMA. The 20, 50 and 100 are all within ~$4.00 of each other. We haven't seen this in a VERY long time.
I have a hunch that by August expiry the 20 SMA will be on top, followed by the 50 and 100 in that order. That will be a day to celebrate.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 30, 2013 12:59:17 GMT -8
WWWWWWWWWWWWWHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I don't get it. We're only up 5 bucks
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Post by artman1033 on Jul 30, 2013 13:00:00 GMT -8
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Post by lovemyipad on Jul 30, 2013 13:19:33 GMT -8
I don't get it. We're only up 5 bucks Higher high by .05 (compared to late May) We have never done that before, in the whole history of this downtrend.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 30, 2013 13:23:18 GMT -8
Oh, that! I did take note of it, btw. AAPL might be acting a bit "contained", but as long it's constructive, it should be fine. I'd love to see AAPL scare the crap out of bears this week, even though I don't have any good setups at the moment. Just that one slightly hedgy butterfly.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 30, 2013 13:29:05 GMT -8
OT: FB currently the new TSLA? LOL.
I may try a momo play at around 38, but stepping back a bit, a $100B company? Really? Well, who needs multiples for Momo Madness anyways? After all, AMZN's multiple is something like TILT.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 30, 2013 13:40:10 GMT -8
We ...don't ...know ...what ...Apple ...is ...thinking ...doing. Ergo, it doesn't matter beyond satisfying our own insatiable need to play guessing games. Let the flames begin. What impact do your earnings estimates have? Does submitting your numbers to PED do anything but satisfy your insatiable need to play guessing games and be praised or ridiculed by your successes or failures? The most common way to value AAPL is to multiply ttm by a sentiment factor (PE, or as I prefer ISM). Accurately forecasting Earnings is difficult, Sentiment is much harder. I post my estimates to make public my calculations, and to compare against others. I do not post them to impact results or price action. It is done to improve my trading, which (since management changed its Guidance metric) hasn't been very good. Yes, I do feel good when my forecasts prove accurate, but the main point is to generate constructive criticism as to my results and open discussion/debate. Sentiment is another factor that I have tried to forecast, and frankly, I have found nothing to make forecasting any more accurate than what happens due to Guidance on top of past performance. Even then the numerical range tends to be fairly wide. That said I may be zeroing in on a metric using average quarterly ISM and a number of Standard Deviations (up or down) based on the trend of AAPL. Using that method is where my current target (pre October earnings) of $480 is derived. Even with an algorithm providing valuable assistance, there remains an element of experience based guess work involved. Sentiment is like chasing a shadow through a fog. Never, in the 9 years I've been doing this have I seen any discussion about products have any meaningful, long term impact on AAPL, which is why I am tired of it.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 30, 2013 13:43:21 GMT -8
I don't get it. We're only up 5 bucks Higher high by .05 (compared to late May) We have never done that before, in the whole history of this downtrend. Lovey, please explain what this foretells ( or forebodes)
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