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Post by Deleted on Jul 30, 2013 13:45:22 GMT -8
Higher high by .05 (compared to late May) We have never done that before, in the whole history of this downtrend. Lovey, please explain what this foretells ( or forebodes) We're up QoQ. Also, ISM (Investor Sentiment Multiplier) is at its highest since January 23, 2013. It is also up from last quarter's low of 9.546 (20%) and trending upward from here.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 30, 2013 13:46:43 GMT -8
I'm not iPad, of course, but "higher high" is what you want from a stock that you want to do well on intermediate/long-term timeframes. This is just another one of those little signs that _might_ add up to improved composure and higher conviction to invest/trade to the upside.
So now we have three downtrend firsts. Breaking out of what I think is THE final controlling downtrend line (for now). Closing over the upper BB on the daily (took even longer than the higher high to happen). And today, challenging a prior lower high and setting a new high price, if only for a moment and if only by five cents.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 30, 2013 13:51:27 GMT -8
What impact do your earnings estimates have? Does submitting your numbers to PED do anything but satisfy your insatiable need to play guessing games and be praised or ridiculed by your successes or failures? The most common way to value AAPL is to multiply ttm by a sentiment factor (PE, or as I prefer ISM). Accurately forecasting Earnings is difficult, Sentiment is much harder. I post my estimates to make public my calculations, and to compare against others. I do not post them to impact results or price action. It is done to improve my trading, which (since management changed its Guidance metric) hasn't been very good. Yes, I do feel good when my forecasts prove accurate, but the main point is to generate constructive criticism as to my results and open discussion/debate. Sentiment is another factor that I have tried to forecast, and frankly, I have found nothing to make forecasting any more accurate than what happens due to Guidance on top of past performance. Even then the numerical range tends to be fairly wide. That said I may be zeroing in on a metric using average quarterly ISM and a number of Standard Deviations (up or down) based on the trend of AAPL. Using that method is where my current target (pre October earnings) of $480 is derived. Even with an algorithm providing valuable assistance, there remains an element of experience based guess work involved. Sentiment is like chasing a shadow through a fog. Never, in the 9 years I've been doing this have I seen any discussion about products have any meaningful, long term impact on AAPL, which is why I am tired of it. Gregg, You and I have been around long enough to remember the debate about whether that new fangled iPad rumored to be coming out might affect AAPL's price. Many bet it would hurt the price by being a limited value boutique product. Many of us bought AAPL at 290 or 310 on the theory that it would be a major addition to the ecosystem, to overall sales and open broad new markets. That was a pure product speculation buying opportunity. some saw the tablet revolution; some did not. i don't get what you are saying. I can make the same argument for the iPhone. That product speculation had "long term impact on AAPL" because when Wall Street woke up and ran the stock from 290 to 425 I already had my ipad revenue forecast shares of AAPL.
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Post by PikesPique on Jul 30, 2013 13:53:20 GMT -8
Just to tweak Gregg: So, after the iPhone 5C and the iWatch and the iTV, what's next? I think Apple should work on a couple more Star Trek inspired products. 1. IBadge, ala the Star Fleet communicator badge. Tap it and ask Siri for info or to communicate with your friends. 2. Headgear used in "The Game" www.youtube.com/watch?v=I3ih-sm6hxA. Nope, too much like Google Glass. 3. iImplant. Join the Collective. The ultimate "social" hardware. Red, any more suggestions from the 24th century? Attachments:
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 30, 2013 13:54:08 GMT -8
I'm not iPad, of course, but "higher high" is what you want from a stock that you want to do well on intermediate/long-term timeframes. This is just another one of those little signs that _might_ add up to improved composure and higher conviction to invest/trade to the upside. So now we have three downtrend firsts. Breaking out of what I think is THE final controlling downtrend line (for now). Closing over the upper BB on the daily (took even longer than the higher high to happen). And today, challenging a prior lower high and setting a new high price, if only for a moment and if only by five cents. Thanks Mav....nice explanation. And, yes, I know you aren't Lovey.....although the two of you have never been seen in the same place at the same time...
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 30, 2013 13:55:45 GMT -8
Just to tweak Gregg: So, after the iPhone 5C and the iWatch and the iTV, what's next? I think Apple should work on a couple more Star Trek inspired products. 1. IBadge, ala the Star Fleet communicator badge. Tap it and ask Siri for info or to communicate with your friends. 2. Headgear used in "The Game" www.youtube.com/watch?v=I3ih-sm6hxA. Nope, too much like Google Glass. 3. iImplant. Join the Collective. The ultimate "social" hardware. Red, any more suggestions from the 24th century? I could use a replicator......
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 30, 2013 13:58:14 GMT -8
That wouldn't work so well, Red, considering I'm a guy.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 30, 2013 14:10:05 GMT -8
That wouldn't work so well, Red, considering I'm a guy. So you allege..... And I claim to be captain of a galaxy class starship.......
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Post by Deleted on Jul 30, 2013 14:11:02 GMT -8
The most common way to value AAPL is to multiply ttm by a sentiment factor (PE, or as I prefer ISM). Accurately forecasting Earnings is difficult, Sentiment is much harder. I post my estimates to make public my calculations, and to compare against others. I do not post them to impact results or price action. It is done to improve my trading, which (since management changed its Guidance metric) hasn't been very good. Yes, I do feel good when my forecasts prove accurate, but the main point is to generate constructive criticism as to my results and open discussion/debate. Sentiment is another factor that I have tried to forecast, and frankly, I have found nothing to make forecasting any more accurate than what happens due to Guidance on top of past performance. Even then the numerical range tends to be fairly wide. That said I may be zeroing in on a metric using average quarterly ISM and a number of Standard Deviations (up or down) based on the trend of AAPL. Using that method is where my current target (pre October earnings) of $480 is derived. Even with an algorithm providing valuable assistance, there remains an element of experience based guess work involved. Sentiment is like chasing a shadow through a fog. Never, in the 9 years I've been doing this have I seen any discussion about products have any meaningful, long term impact on AAPL, which is why I am tired of it. Gregg, You and I have been around long enough to remember the debate about whether that new fangled iPad rumored to be coming out might affect AAPL's price. Many bet it would hurt the price by being a limited value boutique product. Many of us bought AAPL at 290 or 310 on the theory that it would be a major addition to the ecosystem, to overall sales and open broad new markets. That was a pure product speculation buying opportunity. some saw the tablet revolution; some did not. i don't get what you are saying. I can make the same argument for the iPhone. That product speculation had "long term impact on AAPL" because when Wall Street woke up and ran the stock from 290 to 425 I already had my ipad revenue forecast shares of AAPL. I see nothing in AAPL's trading history 1 quarter before, or after, either announcement or launch that implies any kind of new product response. Nor do I see first full quarter sales having an impact directly attributable to the new products. To the contrary, in both cases 3 - 5 weeks after earnings AAPL was trading lower than it was prior to earnings.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jul 30, 2013 14:15:22 GMT -8
I'm not iPad, of course, but "higher high" is what you want from a stock that you want to do well on intermediate/long-term timeframes. This is just another one of those little signs that _might_ add up to improved composure and higher conviction to invest/trade to the upside. So now we have three downtrend firsts. Breaking out of what I think is THE final controlling downtrend line (for now). Closing over the upper BB on the daily (took even longer than the higher high to happen). And today, challenging a prior lower high and setting a new high price, if only for a moment and if only by five cents. +1
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Post by lovemyipad on Jul 30, 2013 14:15:56 GMT -8
ROFL, Red!!!!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 30, 2013 14:18:27 GMT -8
Lookin' like a cut your losses day for you, Red... And I'm not just saying that because I had to cut my _own_ losses, since my GOOG _and_ AMZN trades didn't go the way I wanted them to. (And to think I coulda just waited for AMZN to tank end of day and might've ended up a little green instead of kinda red. Oh well.) EDIT: Or...up 40-80% on AMZN? Look away, Dixieland...
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Post by Deleted on Jul 30, 2013 14:21:07 GMT -8
Just to tweak Gregg: So, after the iPhone 5C and the iWatch and the iTV, what's next? I think Apple should work on a couple more Star Trek inspired products. 1. IBadge, ala the Star Fleet communicator badge. Tap it and ask Siri for info or to communicate with your friends. 2. Headgear used in "The Game" www.youtube.com/watch?v=I3ih-sm6hxA. Nope, too much like Google Glass. 3. iImplant. Join the Collective. The ultimate "social" hardware. Software based services that exploit the hardware/OS combination. Credit Card Merchant Services don't make their profits selling credit card readers. They make their profits providing services through those readers. Cloud based Services are the next frontier. Now who, besides Apple, has been building data centers for the past several years? I'd sure like to know what Apple's data center construction plans are for the next 7 years (through end of F2020). TC: "We are a software Company".
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Post by lovemyipad on Jul 30, 2013 14:23:45 GMT -8
AAPL INTRADAY 1H CHART: Trendlines Bulls want to break above green line. Bears want to break below pink line. Accelerated uptrend remains intact above yellow line. Note: IF we were to go down to the pink line again and HOLD that area, THEN we'd have another IHS in play...
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Post by Deleted on Jul 30, 2013 14:28:14 GMT -8
Ordinarily I dismiss AH trading outliers (price). They are generally for a couple hundred shares or less. But today's AH high outlier was for 17,900 shares at $456.59. oompf.
Somebody with a spare $8,172,961 thinks AAPL is a buy.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 30, 2013 14:29:04 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Jul 30, 2013 14:31:19 GMT -8
AAPL INTRADAY 1H CHART: Trendlines Bulls want to break above green line. Bears want to break below pink line. Accelerated uptrend remains intact above yellow line. So breaking April's intraday high of $644.00 would be a big deal then, am I right?
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Post by lovemyipad on Jul 30, 2013 14:33:01 GMT -8
And how!!!!!!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 30, 2013 14:33:51 GMT -8
I see it a bit differently iPad - to me AAPL's in a controlled uptrend and actually got stopped short of moving into a higher gear.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jul 30, 2013 14:35:00 GMT -8
What's different about that? ;D Complementary, I would say. ;D
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Post by Deleted on Jul 30, 2013 14:35:54 GMT -8
Sad to see a quality, honorable firm diminished like this.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 30, 2013 14:37:31 GMT -8
I don't have AAPL falling below that line until 430 as of tomorrow (obviously, I hope that doesn't happen). Not a huge difference, I just don't have any accelerated uptrend by my tinfoil trendlining.
That other yellow line I have is just a "base trend" I'm measuring, lesser slope than yours.
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Post by ericinaustin on Jul 30, 2013 14:38:23 GMT -8
Two thoughts on the fingerprint scanner.
A. It better work every time and be fast. I had a scanner on my last laptop and it was absolute crap. I had to swipe over and over to get a good scan and the calculations to approve my print took 10 seconds. Doesn't sound like much but if this is the home button and you have to swipe 3 times and wait 10 seconds to make a call there better be a way to turn it off. Knowing apple, they would never put that out there so likely not an issue.
B. if it works well it will be a game changer. Just the point of sale apps will be huge. Forget getting a piece of the credit card fee, with their cash they should just start a new credit card company. Buy square and incorporate them and they would run the table.
Eric in Austin
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 30, 2013 14:38:26 GMT -8
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Post by ericinaustin on Jul 30, 2013 14:41:39 GMT -8
Ment to add that visa rarely admits how much they loose to fraud. It is huge. This tech. Would cut that down a lot.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 30, 2013 14:42:48 GMT -8
Apple's Guidance has gained WS's confidence. Apple Guided FQ4 revenue at $34 - $37 Billion. Now what happens to AAPL if management Guides FQ1 revenue to $55 - $60 Billion (up $20 Billion over FQ4 Guidance).
I'm thinking a 7% pop from wherever AAPL is trading the day of October earnings.
Do you think that realization could be driving current Sentiment?
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 30, 2013 14:45:16 GMT -8
Gregg, You and I have been around long enough to remember the debate about whether that new fangled iPad rumored to be coming out might affect AAPL's price. Many bet it would hurt the price by being a limited value boutique product. Many of us bought AAPL at 290 or 310 on the theory that it would be a major addition to the ecosystem, to overall sales and open broad new markets. That was a pure product speculation buying opportunity. some saw the tablet revolution; some did not. i don't get what you are saying. I can make the same argument for the iPhone. That product speculation had "long term impact on AAPL" because when Wall Street woke up and ran the stock from 290 to 425 I already had my ipad revenue forecast shares of AAPL. I see nothing in AAPL's trading history 1 quarter before, or after, either announcement or launch that implies any kind of new product response. Nor do I see first full quarter sales having an impact directly attributable to the new products. To the contrary, in both cases 3 - 5 weeks after earnings AAPL was trading lower than it was prior to earnings. That's not my point. If it takes Wall Street or other investors months to see the likely revenue stream I saw through discussions about the possibility of new products, it proves my point, not yours. I'm not buying those shares to trade but to invest. If 60% of Apples revenues and 75% of margins today come from products that did not exist in 2007, as long as I hold the shares I bought in 2007 let current stock buyers be late to the party. Remember a few weeks ago you were dismissive of the iwatch, then did a 180 degree change when you better understood it's possible value as an embedded piece of the ecosystem. I think you found that discussion on potential new products interesting and useful. Now, if I watch adds a few billion to revenues in three years time with a 45% GM, the stock price will eventually figure out what we are noodling today. I'd rather keep adding shares at these levels on a certain amount of speculation.
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Post by ericinaustin on Jul 30, 2013 14:46:39 GMT -8
Sorry to keep adding but remember that the barrier to enter the card business is getting the card into people's hands and for them to set up an account and use it. Apple already has 400 million accounts. I'm sitting at a local coffee shop typing this that uses an iPad for their cash register. If the ipad had a scanner you suddenly don't need a card anymore.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 30, 2013 14:50:34 GMT -8
Apple's Guidance has gained WS's confidence. Apple Guided FQ4 revenue at $34 - $37 Billion. Now what happens to AAPL if management Guides FQ1 revenue to $55 - $60 Billion (up $20 Billion over FQ4 Guidance). I'm thinking a 7% pop from wherever AAPL is trading the day of October earnings. Do you think that realization could be driving current Sentiment? O.k.....maybe it's the chatter about new products and new product classifications that is driving sentiment that revenue guidance may be higher.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 30, 2013 14:51:21 GMT -8
This is a normal defensive move by a firm running out of options. "Back a dog into a corner..." Even honorable firms seek survival strategies when backed into a corner. Frankly I don't see HTC lasting long enough to see the verdict. I'll bet there's a reversion clause in the transfer of patents, triggered if/when HTC files bankruptcy, or is bought out.
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