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Post by Deleted on Jul 30, 2013 14:53:11 GMT -8
Apple's Guidance has gained WS's confidence. Apple Guided FQ4 revenue at $34 - $37 Billion. Now what happens to AAPL if management Guides FQ1 revenue to $55 - $60 Billion (up $20 Billion over FQ4 Guidance). I'm thinking a 7% pop from wherever AAPL is trading the day of October earnings. Do you think that realization could be driving current Sentiment? O.k.....maybe it's the chatter about new products and new product classifications that is driving sentiment that revenue guidance may be higher. But, of course. The cart always precedes the horse.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 30, 2013 14:56:09 GMT -8
Sorry to keep adding but remember that the barrier to enter the card business is getting the card into people's hands and for them to set up an account and use it. Apple already has 400 million accounts. I'm sitting at a local coffee shop typing this that uses an iPad for their cash register. If the ipad had a scanner you suddenly don't need a card anymore.Or a Bluetooth reader. Oh wait, the iPad has Bluetooth built in.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 30, 2013 15:01:42 GMT -8
Remember a few weeks ago you were dismissive of the iwatch, then did a 180 degree change when you better understood it's possible value as an embedded piece of the ecosystem. I think you found that discussion on potential new products interesting and useful. Now, if I watch adds a few billion to revenues in three years time with a 45% GM, the stock price will eventually figure out what we are noodling today. I changed my mind over its potential, it did not impact my revenue estimates for the next 4 quarters one iota. I don't see where it has impacted AAPL's valuation either. I've got an LLC that has an idea to develop and build a cold fusion electric generator for the next generation of electric powered vehicles. Care to invest? : )
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Post by Deleted on Jul 30, 2013 15:09:11 GMT -8
And how!!!!!! My magic button is March's intraday $469.95. That led to the toughest 6 months of trading I have ever experienced.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 30, 2013 15:10:55 GMT -8
Remember a few weeks ago you were dismissive of the iwatch, then did a 180 degree change when you better understood it's possible value as an embedded piece of the ecosystem. I think you found that discussion on potential new products interesting and useful. Now, if I watch adds a few billion to revenues in three years time with a 45% GM, the stock price will eventually figure out what we are noodling today. I changed my mind over its potential, it did not impact my revenue estimates for the next 4 quarters one iota. I don't see where it has impacted AAPL's valuation either. I've got an LLC that has an idea to develop and build a cold fusion electric generator for the next generation of electric powered vehicles. Care to invest? : ) No. So you don't have the impact of the iPhone 5c ( vapor ware right now) in your models? Wall Street does and believe me it is one reason AAPL is where it is today. Sentiment did not change just because of seasonality.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 30, 2013 15:11:14 GMT -8
Sorry to keep adding but remember that the barrier to enter the card business is getting the card into people's hands and for them to set up an account and use it. Apple already has 400 million accounts. I'm sitting at a local coffee shop typing this that uses an iPad for their cash register. If the ipad had a scanner you suddenly don't need a card anymore. Apple had approx. 575M store accounts as of June 10, and is adding an estimated 500k new iTunes accounts daily. In other words, Apple is closer to 600M accounts today.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 30, 2013 15:13:04 GMT -8
I changed my mind over its potential, it did not impact my revenue estimates for the next 4 quarters one iota. I don't see where it has impacted AAPL's valuation either. I've got an LLC that has an idea to develop and build a cold fusion electric generator for the next generation of electric powered vehicles. Care to invest? : ) No. So you don't have the impact of the iPhone 5c ( vapor ware right now) in your models? Wall Street does and believe me it is one reason AAPL is where it is today. Sentiment did not change just because of seasonality. The 5C and 5S should combine to sales of 60M+ iPhones in the Dec. quarter. That's a big EPS # btw.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 30, 2013 15:20:26 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Jul 30, 2013 15:20:42 GMT -8
Facebook: Just go away. You suck. So many sites want my FB credentials but I refuse to play. Why? This is what Mark replied in an email mocking FB users regarding privacy: "They trust me — dumb fucks" Mark Zuckerberg
I think people are crazy allowing FB to vacuum your personal life in order to sell it. Google, same thing.
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Post by tuffett on Jul 30, 2013 15:31:20 GMT -8
Ment to add that visa rarely admits how much they loose to fraud. It is huge. This tech. Would cut that down a lot. With the chip and PIN technology fairly widespread now, how much fraud is there actually? I imagine it would mainly be from online transactions? Does anyone have a number?
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 30, 2013 15:38:54 GMT -8
Ment to add that visa rarely admits how much they loose to fraud. It is huge. This tech. Would cut that down a lot. With the chip and PIN technology fairly widespread now, how much fraud is there actually? I imagine it would mainly be from online transactions? Does anyone have a number? Huge. statisticbrain.com/credit-card-fraud-statistics/The hackers are one step ahead of the security experts. Whole industries are built around this. www.g2webservices.com/
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Post by Deleted on Jul 30, 2013 15:58:09 GMT -8
Remember a few weeks ago you were dismissive of the iwatch, then did a 180 degree change when you better understood it's possible value as an embedded piece of the ecosystem. I think you found that discussion on potential new products interesting and useful. Now, if I watch adds a few billion to revenues in three years time with a 45% GM, the stock price will eventually figure out what we are noodling today. I changed my mind over its potential, it did not impact my revenue estimates for the next 4 quarters one iota. I don't see where it has impacted AAPL's valuation either. I've got an LLC that has an idea to develop and build a cold fusion electric generator for the next generation of electric powered vehicles. Care to invest? : ) I completely agree with Red. Using apples official guidance only gives you results 13 weeks out - what use is that to anyone but short term traders? It tells you nothing about the next 12 months or 5 years. I made a huge sum of money by investing in Apple in the first place, and that was entirely due to the iPad rumor. I am also continuing to invest in Apple because of both it's current product lines (and future iterations of them) and also my belief in the possibility of apples future entirely new product lines. Ignoring today's legitimate product rumors is ignoring tomorrows financial reality for Apple. For instance take a look at the heavily rumored new mid range iPhone (iPhone 5C being its latest name). Do 2014 projections with and without it and you get two rather different situations. With it, Apple is going to sell a lot more iPhones - and ASP is going to drop. Without it, iPhone ASP is still going to drop as the product mix continues to shift downward, but Apple sells less iPhones. I still don't quite believe you place such little merit on successful prognostications of apple products and their popularity. You famously poo pood the idea of an iPad mini, but if you didn't you likely would have known in advance that apples iPad sales were about to have a lower ASP and a lower gross margin, which was going to exacerbate the unfortunate GM year on year comparisons of the last few quarters. Now, as it stands, those of us here that are predicting the imminent release of a new lower cost iPhone within the next 2-3 months have the knowledge that iPhone ASP is going to be lower for FQ12014 onwards. Once that has been accepted, the best course of action in my opinion is to theorize how big the ASP drop will be, and how much (if any) Gross margin will be affected. This discussion will prove far more useful for accurate 2014 and beyond financial forecasts than relying on apples guidance for the current 13 week period.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 30, 2013 16:32:30 GMT -8
For context tho, Zuck was a 19-year-old as of that IM conversation.
Still want to short FB when the time is right. Which sure as hell isn't now.
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Post by ericinaustin on Jul 30, 2013 16:32:36 GMT -8
Sorry to keep adding but remember that the barrier to enter the card business is getting the card into people's hands and for them to set up an account and use it. Apple already has 400 million accounts. I'm sitting at a local coffee shop typing this that uses an iPad for their cash register. If the ipad had a scanner you suddenly don't need a card anymore.Or a Bluetooth reader. Oh wait, the iPad has Bluetooth built in. The difference is f. Print tech means the actual person has to be there . With blue tooth it could be anyone.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 30, 2013 16:34:33 GMT -8
I'd like to see the two new iPhones combine for well over 50M units sold. I...do need to see the iPhones introduced before making that estimate, though.
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Post by newton on Jul 30, 2013 16:37:51 GMT -8
Having the fingerprint sensor in the upcoming iPhone makes all kind of sense: If Apple can combine the biometric/fingerprint sensor with facial recognition capability using the front camera, they could eliminate the need for passwords. I'm becoming more interested in this by the day!
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Post by Deleted on Jul 30, 2013 17:02:08 GMT -8
No. So you don't have the impact of the iPhone 5c ( vapor ware right now) in your models? Wall Street does and believe me it is one reason AAPL is where it is today. Sentiment did not change just because of seasonality. The 5C and 5S should combine to sales of 60M+ iPhones in the Dec. quarter. That's a big EPS # btw. 60 Million is what I'm modeling, but my forecast was derived reviewing past December performance. I did not consider unit pricing, colors, case material, processors or fingerprint readers. My model only considered what ACTUALLY happened during the December quarter. And yes, the EPS number is very large. YoY it's >10% larger. editChanged "It did consider" to "I did not consider"
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Post by Deleted on Jul 30, 2013 17:30:41 GMT -8
You famously poo pood the idea of an iPad mini, but if you didn't you likely would have known in advance that apples iPad sales were about to have a lower ASP and a lower gross margin, which was going to exacerbate the unfortunate GM year on year comparisons of the last few quarters. Now, as it stands, those of us here that are predicting the imminent release of a new lower cost iPhone within the next 2-3 months have the knowledge that iPhone ASP is going to be lower for FQ12014 onwards. Once that has been accepted, the best course of action in my opinion is to theorize how big the ASP drop will be, and how much (if any) Gross margin will be affected. This discussion will prove far more useful for accurate 2014 and beyond financial forecasts than relying on apples guidance for the current 13 week period. Yep, I was wrong, but to use the term "famously" overstates it's importance. There isn't a forum member anywhere that hasn't been wrong at least once. As for pre-determing ASP's and unit sales, its a waste of time. This is the area that pros and amateurs alike fare the worst (there's no Guidance from management). As for the impact on revenue and GMs, all you need for that is listen, track and model. Apple gives that data out every 93 days (thereabouts), and its good stuff, much better than discussed in the blogosphere. I talk about the next quarter because that's what this forum does. I model up to 2 years out, although I haven't kept that up to date lately. But what good is that anyway, even if you are a long term investor? You've already made up your mind that you aren't selling in the foreseeable future, you made up your mind looking at past 2 - 3 year results. As for the value of forecasting the next quarter, even loooong term investors make shorter term investments. I'll wager big time that most on this forum, despite their long term strategies, also investment in shorter term periods. I've read some posts where traders have moved in and out in as little as 24 hours.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 30, 2013 17:32:30 GMT -8
Or a Bluetooth reader. Oh wait, the iPad has Bluetooth built in. The difference is f. Print tech means the actual person has to be there . With blue tooth it could be anyone. Not with fingerprint authorization of the transaction.
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Post by tuffett on Jul 30, 2013 17:43:49 GMT -8
You famously poo pood the idea of an iPad mini, but if you didn't you likely would have known in advance that apples iPad sales were about to have a lower ASP and a lower gross margin, which was going to exacerbate the unfortunate GM year on year comparisons of the last few quarters. Now, as it stands, those of us here that are predicting the imminent release of a new lower cost iPhone within the next 2-3 months have the knowledge that iPhone ASP is going to be lower for FQ12014 onwards. Once that has been accepted, the best course of action in my opinion is to theorize how big the ASP drop will be, and how much (if any) Gross margin will be affected. This discussion will prove far more useful for accurate 2014 and beyond financial forecasts than relying on apples guidance for the current 13 week period. Yep, I was wrong, but to use the term "famously" overstates it's importance. There isn't a forum member anywhere that hasn't been wrong at least once. As for pre-determing ASP's and unit sales, its a waste of time. This is the area that pros and amateurs alike fare the worst (there's no Guidance from management). As for the impact on revenue and GMs, all you need for that is listen, track and model. Apple gives that data out every 93 days (thereabouts), and its good stuff, much better than discussed in the blogosphere. I talk about the next quarter because that's what this forum does. I model up to 2 years out, although I haven't kept that up to date lately. But what good is that anyway, even if you are a long term investor? You've already made up your mind that you aren't selling in the foreseeable future, you made up your mind looking at past 2 - 3 year results. As for the value of forecasting the next quarter, even loooong term investors make shorter term investments. I'll wager big time that most on this forum, despite their long term strategies, also investment in shorter term periods. I've read some posts where traders have moved in and out in as little as 24 hours. I guess the point many of us are trying to get across is: why do you make such a huge fuss about people speculating about new products or product lines? Let it be. It's just as (or more) valuable to many of us as projecting next quarter's EPS. If you haven't noticed, pretty much anything goes here. Heck, half the posts are off-topic so are certainly less useful than product speculation. As long as there aren't any ridiculous statements made as fact without supporting evidence, I'm fine with whatever is posted.
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Post by appledoc on Jul 30, 2013 17:53:14 GMT -8
Aren't we a bunch of Apple fans too? I like the devices and talking about them here.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 30, 2013 17:55:19 GMT -8
I've made fiscal threads over at Apple Fundamentals for the last several quarters for anyone interested.
After that, iPad's word is law here.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 30, 2013 18:19:00 GMT -8
$5.55 Billion (worldwide) is very big number. Put into perspective it represents 0.0089% of the GDP of the world's 10 largest economies. The biggest source of credit card fraud comes from counterfeit cards (37%). Add lost/stolen and you have 60% of the problem. A specific online category wasn't listed. I'm going to use fraudulent telemarketers - 10%. Seems to me that the biggest impact that a secure payment would have is to lost/stolen: 23%. That is not small change for a banking system that makes millions on fluctuations amounting to a penny.
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Post by artman1033 on Jul 30, 2013 18:59:10 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Jul 30, 2013 19:00:15 GMT -8
I guess the point many of us are trying to get across is: why do you make such a huge fuss about people speculating about new products or product lines? Let it be. It's just as (or more) valuable to many of us as projecting next quarter's EPS. If you haven't noticed, pretty much anything goes here. Heck, half the posts are off-topic so are certainly less useful than product speculation. As long as there aren't any ridiculous statements made as fact without supporting evidence, I'm fine with whatever is posted. I really don't mind the product speculation, as long as the focus on it doesn't consume all investment discussion. To be sure I place no value in it, but the flip side is that so many place little value in reading/understanding/discussing Apple's 10Qs. I found what I believe is the catalyst to AAPL's drop from $705, but I found it 9 months to late. Its quite possible that if as much energy was put into analyzing Apple's 10Qs, someone might have started a discussion that led to that discovery much, much earlier. Because the catalyst occurred during the June quarter we might have questioned why (instead of blindly reveling in the fact that it was) AAPL was going up like a rocket for the two months before it ran out of fuel, much like we do with Amazon and Google. It doesn't matter if you are a looong term, medium term, or short term investor/trader, knowing the dynamics behind the drop could have signaled you to the depth that AAPL was going to drop and what it would take before a recovery began. Mav, I'm going to join you on the fundamentals thread and see what happens. It would be interesting if we could measure readership changes.
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Post by Odd-Lot Richard on Jul 30, 2013 20:26:16 GMT -8
Sounds like boilerplate termination legalese, Artman. How do you see it?
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Post by nagrani on Jul 30, 2013 20:32:30 GMT -8
Artman - bro - are you sniffing glue again?
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