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Post by Deleted on Aug 5, 2013 13:24:50 GMT -8
Have you compared GOOG metrics with AAPL? They suck. yes but when did that ever matter? I was merely trying to be irrational in an irrational market. But I am happy to see that my stubbornness is finally paying off. True. In the longer run, it should matter, and I believe it will.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 5, 2013 13:24:57 GMT -8
This isn't the right attitude to have. This the same thing we have witnessed in the smartphone market. Samsung's large unit sales were largely dismissed because Apple had some 75% of the profit of the market. Now it's closer to 50%, and trending down (hopefully the new upcoming products put an end to this). Samsung out-earned Apple in the most recent quarter, which a dramatic change from the past when they were well behind. It looks like the same thing is happening in the tablet market. If Apple continues to bleed share, their share of the profits are going to inevitably slip. A redesigned iPad and a retina iPad Mini need to come out ASAP. Its not comparable, seeing as Samsung makes virtually zero profits from tablets (that will happen when most of your shipments are simply excess stock given away free with your TVs, Fridges & Washing machines). Tablets are completely different marketplace to smartphones, with the most obvious difference being that there is no huge middlemen distributor clamouring to sell your product with a big subsidy (the carriers were a big part of the reason for Samsungs smartphone success - they were desperate for an iPhone like handset competitor and Samsung was the closest). No one wants an android tablet, and those that buy them are doing it for price reasons and instantly end up regretting it. My brother brought an iPad for himself, and got sub $150 android tablets for three of his kids recently - I can see the frustration on their faces whenever I see them try to use them, I doubt I manage to hide the pity on my face.
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Post by rosie on Aug 5, 2013 13:30:18 GMT -8
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Post by tuffett on Aug 5, 2013 13:32:20 GMT -8
I wasn't separating out mobile profits - Apple still may lead in that by a bit but it doesn't take away the point I'm making. The point is Apple as a company vastly outearned Samsung as a company not too long ago. Now Samsung has caught up and overtaken, at least for now. I remember Gregg dismissing Samsung's growth because their profits were only a small fraction of Apple's - what now?? It's unwise to dismiss 200%+ growth by Samsung in the tablet market as "cheap, no profit" devices. Gregg, you can think what you want but I'm just being realistic. You can carry on continuing to think Samsung's profit growth comes from Apple contracts and a boom in the dishwasher market - I'll continue believing it's due to growth of their own products in the profitable smartphone and tablet space. Would love to see how your well-grounded research and facts contradict anything I'm saying here...
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Post by Deleted on Aug 5, 2013 13:32:38 GMT -8
Horace Dediu and MG Siegler are having a bizarre Twitter discussion about Bezos' "brilliant plan" to not make money. MG Siegler was a bit of a fan of Bezos last I checked (recall that Kindle Fire preview deal as well), so the "endorsement" isn't unexpected, assuming Siegler's actually being serious. But gimme a break. Why shouldn't Apple find all the legal ways it can to shrink its net income to almost nothing and go for amazing scale and share with no profit dollars to show for it? "Manage" zero profit like Amazon? Oh, that's right. Because _its_ share price would utterly tank. And because Amazon's "sustainability" appears to be predicated on basically zero profit. If Amazon tried to "turn the profit dial", what would happen to revenue growth? Of course, shorting AMZN continues to be tough as hell. That decisive break below 300 didn't happen, so I had to use one of my "day trade without being branded a FINRA pattern day trader" cards to sell my puts with enough capital gain for a few tacos. Yay me. Jeff Bezos just bought the Washington Post group for $250 million. Probably the smartest $250 million he ever spent considering the amount of dirt on Washington figures he just purchased. Lets see how far Congress goes with implementing new Internet sales tax laws now. I'm sure the DOJ will have even less incentive to investigate amazons activity now. Apples likely in for some more bogus witch hunts. Even if this is all above board, I can't see much in the way of objective Amazon coverage being published anytime soon in the Washington Post.
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Post by artman1033 on Aug 5, 2013 13:36:02 GMT -8
Horace Dediu and MG Siegler are having a bizarre Twitter discussion about Bezos' "brilliant plan" to not make money. MG Siegler was a bit of a fan of Bezos last I checked (recall that Kindle Fire preview deal as well), so the "endorsement" isn't unexpected, assuming Siegler's actually being serious. But gimme a break. Why shouldn't Apple find all the legal ways it can to shrink its net income to almost nothing and go for amazing scale and share with no profit dollars to show for it? "Manage" zero profit like Amazon? Oh, that's right. Because _its_ share price would utterly tank. And because Amazon's "sustainability" appears to be predicated on basically zero profit. If Amazon tried to "turn the profit dial", what would happen to revenue growth? Of course, shorting AMZN continues to be tough as hell. That decisive break below 300 didn't happen, so I had to use one of my "day trade without being branded a FINRA pattern day trader" cards to sell my puts with enough capital gain for a few tacos. Yay me. Jeff Bezos just bought the Washington Post group for $250 million. Probably the smartest $250 million he ever spent considering the amount of dirt on Washington figures he just purchased. Lets see how far Congress goes with implementing new Internet sales tax laws now. I'm sure the DOJ will have even less incentive to investigate amazons activity now. Apples likely in for some more bogus witch hunts. Even if this is all above board, I can't see much in the way of objective Amazon coverage being published anytime soon in the Washington Post. You nailed it! Very inexpensive at $250 million.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 5, 2013 13:37:48 GMT -8
Well, the Washington Post IS only one paper, though.
Indirect lobbying purchase, eh? I see how it might help Amazon, but not in terms of that bottom line...
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Post by artman1033 on Aug 5, 2013 13:47:07 GMT -8
Well, the Washington Post IS only one paper, though. Indirect lobbying purchase, eh? I see how it might help Amazon, but not in terms of that bottom line... I will give you time "to revise and extend your remarks!". BEZOS bought it himself! He sold shares on Friday to help finance it. It is a brilliant way to extend POWER. It is a forceful media play. I am simply awestruck by his cunning and ambition. "There will of course be change at The Post over the coming years. That’s essential and would have happened with or without new ownership. The Internet is transforming almost every element of the news business: shortening news cycles, eroding long-reliable revenue sources, and enabling new kinds of competition, some of which bear little or no news-gathering costs. There is no map, and charting a path ahead will not be easy. We will need to invent, which means we will need to experiment. Our touchstone will be readers, understanding what they care about – government, local leaders, restaurant openings, scout troops, businesses, charities, governors, sports – and working backwards from there. I’m excited and optimistic about the opportunity for invention."
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 5, 2013 13:52:47 GMT -8
Nope! "Indirect lobbying purchase" says exactly everything I needed to say.
Because it says what you said. Except I'm not seeing...y'know...the whole PROFIT thing.
Now if Bezos somehow gained the power to lobby certain sections of Congress to lower the corporate tax rate? Well...let's be realistic.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 5, 2013 13:57:53 GMT -8
I wasn't separating out mobile profits - Apple still may lead in that by a bit but it doesn't take away the point I'm making. The point is Apple as a company vastly outearned Samsung as a company not too long ago. Now Samsung has caught up and overtaken, at least for now. I remember Gregg dismissing Samsung's growth because their profits were only a small fraction of Apple's - what now?? It's unwise to dismiss 200%+ growth by Samsung in the tablet market as "cheap, no profit" devices. Gregg, you can think what you want but I'm just being realistic. You can carry on continuing to think Samsung's profit growth comes from Apple contracts and a boom in the dishwasher market - I'll continue believing it's due to growth of their own products in the profitable smartphone and tablet space. Would love to see how your well-grounded research and facts contradict anything I'm saying here... "The point is Apple as a company vastly outearned Samsung as a company not too long ago. " Some perspective on this comment: In 2007: Apple had revenues of $24 billion dollars and operating income of $4.4 billion. Samsung Electronics had revenues of $180 billion and operating income of $8 billion. I for one don't doubt samsungs success in smartphones, its indisputable that they lead in shipments, and they are at least in the same ballpark in total operating profits from their handset operations as Apple. Samsung's success in smartphones was easy as it already had all the necessary pieces in place - large pre-existing handset marketshare, - extensive preexisting carrier distribution, - eager carriers wanting an iPhone competitor, - eager consumer wanting an iPhone-like experience, - easy access to its own components to allow rapid growth without needing to arrange suppliers, - future market foresight from advanced knowledge of apples future build plans from its long range component orders Most of the above is not present in the tablet market. Samsung has a far tougher hill to climb. Dilger is really writing some great stuff at Appleinsider recently. Here is an article from just two days ago that uses the same reports about samsungs smartphone success to demonstrate the complete lacklustre performance by them in tablets: appleinsider.com/articles/13/08/03/apple-inc-ipad-is-obliterating-samsung-googles-android-in-tablet-profitsMoney quote: "That necessarily means, by anyone's metrics, that outside of smartphones Apple is simply destroying Samsung's parallel IM Mobile business (including all of the company's sales of Galaxy tablets, Windows PCs and Chromebooks) in profitability. Strategy Analytics accounts for just $440 million in operational profits after subtracting Samsung's handset profits." And to top it off, Samsung launched new models of its flagship galaxy tablets last quarter - and its estimated shipments DROPPED sequentially. (And its possible those "estimates" are likely on the high side of reality).
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 5, 2013 13:59:41 GMT -8
Well, shipments can always be accurate. Actual sales won't ever be reported after all. ;D Quite...transparent. (Of course not. )
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Post by Lstream on Aug 5, 2013 14:06:13 GMT -8
I am pretty much ignoring all Mobile Industry market share data, until someone with a clue starts reporting on it. You know, Marketing 101 stuff like segmentation. I also agree with Burgess on the "who is crushing who" comment. I can't think of any other industry that is plagued with such bush league analysis and commentary. IDC and the rest of their inbred cousins are a joke.
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Post by cbingle on Aug 5, 2013 14:06:42 GMT -8
All Jeff Bezos needs now is a "mini me " and he is set. I am not a fan of people like him. I did enjoy Myers movies though ;-)
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Post by Deleted on Aug 5, 2013 14:09:52 GMT -8
Price is truth.
Rain is wet.
Class dismissed.
;D
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Post by Deleted on Aug 5, 2013 14:10:34 GMT -8
Well, shipments can always be accurate. Actual sales won't ever be reported after all. ;D Quite...transparent. (Of course not. ) Its my new pet hate. It irks me greatly that all the market research firms wait until after Apple reports before publishing their "estimates" of the previous quarters marketshare. It means they can't be proved wrong on their estimates by the only remaining relevant company that actually provides shipment numbers. If their quarterly reports came out before apple reported then we would see how accurate (or not) their estimates are, and in return see if their non-apple estimates are even worth paying attention too. As it is there is just one legitimate data point (Apples actual reported shipments) lending false legitimacy to all the other vendor estimates listed on the same marketshare chart.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 5, 2013 14:11:57 GMT -8
Price is truth.
Rain is wet.
Class dismissed. AAPL is up. ;D Fixed that for you. ;D
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Post by Deleted on Aug 5, 2013 14:12:26 GMT -8
IDC and the rest of their inbred cousins are a joke. You summed it up much more succinctly.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 5, 2013 14:16:33 GMT -8
Characterizing Bezos' acquisition of The Washington Post as some kind of masterstroke is premature, I think.
Do you think for one minute the NYT likes this? Or ANY other media conglomerate in the country? Bezos is going to threaten print media in a big way and I suspect they're going to push back. Hard.
This is not going to play well among vested interests in media. Not by a long shot.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 5, 2013 14:23:00 GMT -8
Price is truth.
Rain is wet.
Class dismissed. AAPL is up. ;D Fixed that for you. ;D If only that was a constant equivalent. Next time I go shopping, I'm going to stage left Nordstrom if the salesperson tells me "price is truth." ;D
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Post by Deleted on Aug 5, 2013 14:30:34 GMT -8
I should have mentioned that my visits wouldn't be all that frequent. I've a new job working for a mail order firm that started out as part time and due to a massive ramp in orders, rapidly went full time. I now understand why people invest in Amazon—forget the margins on their own sales, it's the third-party sellers that will drive their revenue growth.
Yes, Mav, I am wheeles. I switched to birdie as that's what iPad (and a few others) referred to me as, and lots of people left out the third "e" anyway. I think most knew me by the big bird pic anyway.
As to the whole boomerang thing, I got an email from a regular here (no names, no pack drill) asking me to come back, so I did.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 5, 2013 14:33:39 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Aug 5, 2013 14:40:20 GMT -8
Would love to see how your well-grounded research and facts contradict anything I'm saying here... No you don't. You've followed up your first baseless post quoting the same drivel debunked by others. Links to one of those articles, that provides excellent research, was provided, and obviously you have yet to read it. It isn't me you are ignoring, its the body of work done by others you ignore.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 5, 2013 14:49:45 GMT -8
O.K... I want all the TA gurus to give us a full detailed :-*update on what today's close means... Quick thumbnail. Weekly, daily, 4H charts are in an uptrend. Monthly and 1H indecisive. Hitting the daily 200 EMA today may prompt some profit-taking. Weekly options currently point to a pin around 455 on Friday, but that is subject to change.
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Post by ericinaustin on Aug 5, 2013 14:52:35 GMT -8
The Post buy will turn out to be a steal in my opinion for a number of reasons.
The main reason is that so many print reporting outlets have died off and they are being replaced by aggregators and bloggers that just trumpet old and many times just bad info. It's amateur hour out there.
I don't think it is surprising to see how much just bad writing and half assed " facts" we have seen on Apple the last several years. It is much worse than it used to be and this loss of companies that hire actual reporters and staff local offices to go out and gather info will become much more valuable as others disappear . The only problem is how does the New York Times and the Post monetize that expertise . With a deep pocket like Bezos that doesn't have to be answered so fast.
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Post by artman1033 on Aug 5, 2013 15:00:29 GMT -8
The Post buy will turn out to be a steal in my opinion for a number of reasons. The main reason is that so many print reporting outlets have died off and they are being replaced by aggregators and bloggers that just trumpet old and many times just bad info. It's amateur hour out there. I don't think it is surprising to see how much just bad writing and half assed " facts" we have seen on Apple the last several years. It is much worse than it used to be and this loss of companies that hire actual reporters and staff local offices to go out and gather info will become much more valuable as others disappear . The only problem is how does the New York Times and the Post monetize that expertise . With a deep pocket like Bezos that doesn't have to be answered so fast. Bezo has invested $5 million with Henry Blodget early this year. hmmmmm.
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Post by tuffett on Aug 5, 2013 15:01:14 GMT -8
Would love to see how your well-grounded research and facts contradict anything I'm saying here... No you don't. You've followed up your first baseless post quoting the same drivel debunked by others. Links to one of those articles, that provides excellent research, was provided, and obviously you have yet to read it. It isn't me you are ignoring, its the body of work done by others you ignore. Yes I do. You're displaying your usual classic avoidance tactics. All I'm saying is that I don't completely disregard Samsung's apparent growth in the tablet market as not being a threat. Most of us did the same with phones and got burned. How long did we all gleefully quote the 75% profit share of smartphones (myself included) whenever some postitive Samsung data came out? I understand shipments vs. sales. I understand web usage. I understand margins. I'm simply being cautious based on a very recent and similar experience. If any of the above is "baseless" and has been debunked, I'm all ears.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 5, 2013 15:18:51 GMT -8
The Post buy will turn out to be a steal in my opinion for a number of reasons. The main reason is that so many print reporting outlets have died off and they are being replaced by aggregators and bloggers that just trumpet old and many times just bad info. It's amateur hour out there. I don't think it is surprising to see how much just bad writing and half assed " facts" we have seen on Apple the last several years. It is much worse than it used to be and this loss of companies that hire actual reporters and staff local offices to go out and gather info will become much more valuable as others disappear . The only problem is how does the New York Times and the Post monetize that expertise . With a deep pocket like Bezos that doesn't have to be answered so fast. $250M for a storied newspaper in an industry ripe for disruption. You may be right, but I don't see any media competitors liking this one bit, given Bezos' Midas (fools) gold touch. I don't know the industry well enough to predict how this plays out, but it's going to be fascinating to watch. By the way, a great book, if outdated, on the industry is The Powers That Be, by David Halberstam. Katharine Graham was a legend.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Aug 5, 2013 15:21:59 GMT -8
Many now predicting the WaPo pay wall will come down...
Bezos as Charles Foster Kane.
What is Rosebud?
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Post by Deleted on Aug 5, 2013 15:55:04 GMT -8
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Post by appledoc on Aug 5, 2013 16:06:07 GMT -8
Finally calling the bottom. Super bull count is very much in play. Will buy the next dip heavily.
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