Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 5, 2013 16:14:17 GMT -8
No you don't. You've followed up your first baseless post quoting the same drivel debunked by others. Links to one of those articles, that provides excellent research, was provided, and obviously you have yet to read it. It isn't me you are ignoring, its the body of work done by others you ignore. Yes I do. You're displaying your usual classic avoidance tactics. All I'm saying is that I don't completely disregard Samsung's apparent growth in the tablet market as not being a threat. Most of us did the same with phones and got burned. How long did we all gleefully quote the 75% profit share of smartphones (myself included) whenever some postitive Samsung data came out? I understand shipments vs. sales. I understand web usage. I understand margins. I'm simply being cautious based on a very recent and similar experience. If any of the above is "baseless" and has been debunked, I'm all ears.Avoidance? ? ROTFLMAO. The hell you are. How many times do you have to be directed to articles that rip claims of Samsung's profit superiority apart, exposing the contradictions in media claims, using Samsung's own reported numbers contrasted with Apple's 10Qs, before you give up an insane assumption?
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 5, 2013 16:31:52 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by pauls on Aug 5, 2013 16:36:11 GMT -8
Isn't the point here that Android, via Samsung, has gotten far stronger, far faster, than most gave them credit for in the not too distant past? Precise numbers are hard to come by, for reasons everyone seems to understand.
New products such as the Moto SHOULD be scrutinized and appreciated for what they are. After all, we are dealing with WS sentiment (ISM), more than actual numbers.
There ARE markets where the iPhone isn't doing as well as it should.
That we have very smart pundits pointing out that Samsung earnings, shipped numbers, and profit as relates to where they compete with Apple is obvious, and I'd be surprised if any member here hasn't clicked through to the volumes of stories that dispel the crappy headlines. Yet....sentiment is what it is. Apple sentiment seems to be coming back strong. Why fight?
|
|
|
Post by tuffett on Aug 5, 2013 16:42:03 GMT -8
Yes I do. You're displaying your usual classic avoidance tactics. All I'm saying is that I don't completely disregard Samsung's apparent growth in the tablet market as not being a threat. Most of us did the same with phones and got burned. How long did we all gleefully quote the 75% profit share of smartphones (myself included) whenever some postitive Samsung data came out? I understand shipments vs. sales. I understand web usage. I understand margins. I'm simply being cautious based on a very recent and similar experience. If any of the above is "baseless" and has been debunked, I'm all ears.Avoidance? ? ROTFLMAO. The hell you are. How many times do you have to be directed to articles that rip claims of Samsung's profit superiority apart, exposing the contradictions in media claims, using Samsung's own reported numbers contrasted with Apple's 10Qs, before you give up an insane assumption? Oh, so Samsung didn't out earn Apple this past quarter, largely on the back of smartphone profits, less than a year after you dismissed their growth as meaningless because they earned so much less than Apple? Must have missed the article that tore that bit of knowledge to shreds. My bad. Link me up. I'm curious what you think my insane assumption is. That Samsung's rapid growth in the tablet market may pose a threat to Apple? How insane! I should stick to being reasonable like forecasting a $16.80 EPS in Q12013 despite the whole board telling me it's absurd. P.S. You avoided again. Telling.
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Aug 5, 2013 16:59:31 GMT -8
Kindly give the bickering a rest.
Anyone who gets on my last nerve goes into time out for a week.
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Aug 5, 2013 17:10:00 GMT -8
Now all we are missing is for Gregg to start posting his weekly BCS trades and for others to start asking him for advice - then we are officially in a parabolic move up. ROFL!!!
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Aug 5, 2013 17:13:03 GMT -8
I thought that was enough TA detail for me, Ensign. Don't need the eyes to glass over. 'WHHHHHHHHHHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!" is fairly concise, gives enough information, and doesn't provoke any fights on this board. LOL!!!
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Aug 5, 2013 17:15:08 GMT -8
O.K... I want all the TA gurus to give us a full detailed :-*update on what today's close means... Quick thumbnail. Weekly, daily, 4H charts are in an uptrend. Monthly and 1H indecisive. Hitting the daily 200 EMA today may prompt some profit-taking. Weekly options currently point to a pin around 455 on Friday, but that is subject to change. Love ya, Birdie!!
|
|
|
Post by rutgersguy92 on Aug 5, 2013 17:27:25 GMT -8
Finally calling the bottom. Super bull count is very much in play. Will buy the next dip heavily. You are not the only one calling the bottom, Doc. Nick Nansen tweeted after today's close: "AAPL just put in it's first higher high pivot point. It took out old pivot high of 465.75 set 5/7/13. This completes bottoming process". He also put some EW out there: "I use Elliott waves a lot in all time frames. The 5 wave patterns repeat themselves in all time frames from 2 minute charts to weekly charts." Appreciate any comments from Ms. IPad, Doc or Mace on this, and what exactly does it mean in terms of AAPL's stock price (e.g., would this be in agreement with the Super Bull count)?
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 5, 2013 17:33:36 GMT -8
Quick thumbnail. Weekly, daily, 4H charts are in an uptrend. Monthly and 1H indecisive. Hitting the daily 200 EMA today may prompt some profit-taking. Weekly options currently point to a pin around 455 on Friday, but that is subject to change. Love ya, Birdie!! Looks like $460 - $470 as of now. I'm surprised to see it updated this early. Attachments:
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Aug 5, 2013 17:33:42 GMT -8
Our friend Robert over at Braeburn has a personal price target of $600 by February 2014. Oy vey, things are staring to get interesting around here.
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Aug 5, 2013 17:35:22 GMT -8
Love ya, Birdie!! Looks like $460 - $470 as of now. I'm surprised to see it updated this early. How does going ex-div on Thursday play into this?
|
|
|
Post by prazan on Aug 5, 2013 18:06:52 GMT -8
Finally calling the bottom. Super bull count is very much in play. Will buy the next dip heavily. I've kept Avi Gilburt's call from May 3rd among my tabs since the day he made it. I understand that calls like this aren't and shouldn't be cut in stone, but I'm still watching with interest. I'd say 655 by the end of the year would be super bullish, yes. www.marketwatch.com/story/can-apple-hit-650-by-the-end-of-the-year-2013-05-03
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Aug 5, 2013 18:09:42 GMT -8
Robert? Who's he? (Seriously, he hasn't caught up with this board at all ever since The Great Schism.)
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Aug 5, 2013 18:10:43 GMT -8
Love ya, Birdie!! Looks like $460 - $470 as of now. I'm surprised to see it updated this early. Ah, yes, pain range. Well, it's Monday close. Will keep tracking, but it's still too early to even be indicative IMHO.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 5, 2013 18:22:32 GMT -8
Kindly give the bickering a rest. Anyone who gets on my last nerve goes into time out for a week. You can put me on timeout now. My next post was to call a spade a spade and an idiot an idiot.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 5, 2013 18:27:20 GMT -8
Anybody desiring to remain in touch after iPad puts me on timeout can do so at gregg_thurman@me.com Bozos need not bother.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 5, 2013 18:31:38 GMT -8
Looks like $460 - $470 as of now. I'm surprised to see it updated this early. How does going ex-div on Thursday play into this? I don't see any tractor beam + with this. But for God's sake, you're the Captain!
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 5, 2013 18:37:45 GMT -8
Finally calling the bottom. Super bull count is very much in play. Will buy the next dip heavily. I've kept Avi Gilburt's call from May 3rd among my tabs since the day he made it. I understand that calls like this aren't and shouldn't be cut in stone, but I'm still watching with interest. I'd say 655 by the end of the year would be super bullish, yes. www.marketwatch.com/story/can-apple-hit-650-by-the-end-of-the-year-2013-05-03 $650 is the WAG I gave up last night for this Dec-Jan. But let's see the product roll out first. Unlike last year, there's a chance for sleigh bells this Christmas. EPS #s for the holiday quarter are looking good YOY.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 5, 2013 18:42:00 GMT -8
I think Engadget nailed the Moto X with this prediction: The Moto X exudes no tech halo like the Galaxy S 4 or the HTC One because it is the sum of averages. Here’s how I see it: You know those people who own iPhones, but don’t know which model number they own and also refer to all Android phones as Droids? This phone is for them.www.engadget.com/2013/08/05/motorola-moto-x-review/
|
|
|
Post by moltenfire on Aug 5, 2013 18:42:40 GMT -8
What's happening in Asia? The Nikkei and the Hang Sang are down a lot.
|
|
|
Post by prazan on Aug 5, 2013 18:48:41 GMT -8
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 5, 2013 18:54:00 GMT -8
Robert? Who's he? (Seriously, he hasn't caught up with this board at all ever since The Great Schism.) I find the differing approaches between here and Braeburn an interesting (and appropriate) contrast: Probably one example that sums it up nicely: At the old AFB we had a week long intraday trading thread. Here at AFB2 there is a new intraday trading thread daily. Over at Braeburn there is a monthly "stock talk" thread. Braeburn discussion is mostly AAPL fundamentals, with a little bit of longer range TA discussion (mostly by members who I think post here also). Whereas here its pretty much the opposite with a lot of chatter on short term stock direction/influences, TA coverage, max pain discussion, options strategies, breaking AAPL news etc. I think the differing approaches are good. Braeburn discussion helps with long term thinking on AAPL targets, Loveys place is good for getting a feel on when is a good time to enter and keep up with news.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 5, 2013 19:49:54 GMT -8
Finally calling the bottom. Super bull count is very much in play. Will buy the next dip heavily. I've kept Avi Gilburt's call from May 3rd among my tabs since the day he made it. I understand that calls like this aren't and shouldn't be cut in stone, but I'm still watching with interest. I'd say 655 by the end of the year would be super bullish, yes. www.marketwatch.com/story/can-apple-hit-650-by-the-end-of-the-year-2013-05-03 I don't think AAPL's target should be expressed as by Dec 31. TTM does not change until after January earnings, so a December quarter price target should remain in play until January earnings are given. The only thing left to be determined after that is the degree of Investor Sentiment to apply to TTM. A $650 price target prior to January earnings would require an ISM of ~16.25. How comfortable are you with that? Frankly, I'm not, until Apple Guides Revenue significantly higher than current $34 - $37 Billion. I'm modeling ~$60 Billion for the December quarter. If Apple believes it will generate that much, then historical (since April 2012) data suggests that Apple will Guide greater than $55 Billion for the December quarter. This brings up an interesting trade scenario. A regression analysis of AAPL trading from the day of earnings low to the second Friday after earnings high, in which Apple exceeded expectations and guided positively for the following quarter, reveals that AAPL went up an average of ~11% in the time frame specified. After the last 2 earnings reports AAPL gained an average of 13%. This is significant because Apple guided down to essentially flat for those 2 periods. I attribute the oversized increase in AAPL to WS coming to trust management's Guidance, and to visualizing a turn in Apple's future performance. If we cut AAPL's historic increase in half to ~6% pop, and assume AAPL is trading at $500 on the day of October earnings, then we can reasonably expect a pop of between $25 - $30 by the second Friday after earnings (Nov 1, 2013). So what does all this mean? It means that buying a $5.00 Call Spread on October 22, that expires on November 1, that is ~$25 out of the money, could return a profit of ~1100%. I have laid out what I see as a very real possibility. It has nothing to do with the colors of new iPhones, processors, screen types, sizes, launch date or addition of more carriers. It has everything to do with how management believes the Company will perform, knowing everything that we do not. Rather than question me on this, I suggest you conduct your own due diligence to arrive at your own conclusions. That said, in light of AAPL's historic moves, and the moves of the last 2 quarters, I see a 6% pop on December quarter Guidance exceeding $55 Billion, as a no brainer.
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Aug 5, 2013 20:05:51 GMT -8
How does going ex-div on Thursday play into this? I don't see any tractor beam + with this. But for God's sake, you're the Captain! What I meant is that APPL trades $3.05/sh lower on Thursday than it will at the close Wednesday, whatever that is. I'm curious how the option markets figure this....are the 470 calls priced right now as if they were 466.95 of value? I suppose I could just look at the prices, but as captain I have people for that. Riker!
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 5, 2013 21:32:51 GMT -8
I'm modeling ~$60 Billion for the December quarter. If Apple believes it will generate that much, then historical (since April 2012) data suggests that Apple will Guide greater than $55 Billion for the December quarter. ... It has nothing to do with the colors of new iPhones, processors, screen types, sizes, launch date or addition of more carriers. It has everything to do with how management believes the Company will perform, knowing everything that we do not. In late October, when Apple provides guidance for the December quarter, we will already know everything there is to know about new iPhones, launch dates, likely carrier additions, and new iPads - so it's perhaps a possibility that WS will have already priced in the upside prior to earnings.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 5, 2013 21:35:23 GMT -8
More thoughts on Bezos Washington post purchase. I notice no one is mentioning anything about why Bezos is personally buying it instead of amazon. My own thoughts is that spending $250 million on a company losing $50 million a year is to much an inconvenience for Amazon from a earnings point of view. With Bezos owning it personally he can take the losses (nowhere near amazons books), and provide amazon with free access to whatever it gets from a Washington post group tie up (eg. Free kindle content, free advertising on wash post publications & properties etc) As much as some might object to a link to blodget, this is actually a interesting piece from him on it: t.co/y9pSGlpfUc
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Aug 5, 2013 22:34:03 GMT -8
Whew. Nikkei went from close to 1.5% down to UP 1% in the green to end trading. What a roller-coaster index.
Seems to be helping US futures shift back to neutral, which is JUST FINE as far as AAPL's been concerned lately. Though Monday's "ancient history", who the heck knows about Tuesday trading.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 5, 2013 23:13:05 GMT -8
I'm modeling ~$60 Billion for the December quarter. If Apple believes it will generate that much, then historical (since April 2012) data suggests that Apple will Guide greater than $55 Billion for the December quarter. ... It has nothing to do with the colors of new iPhones, processors, screen types, sizes, launch date or addition of more carriers. It has everything to do with how management believes the Company will perform, knowing everything that we do not. In late October, when Apple provides guidance for the December quarter, we will already know everything there is to know about new iPhones, launch dates, likely carrier additions, and new iPads - so it's perhaps a possibility that WS will have already priced in the upside prior to earnings. Maybe, but in the 9 years I've been trading AAPL I've never seen that happen.
|
|