Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 7, 2013 12:42:48 GMT -8
I still say there's no "5" without an A6. That's a HUGE differentiator in terms of performance, though not many may know or care about the SoC. Needless to say it'll help with iOS 7.
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Post by tuffett on Aug 7, 2013 12:50:11 GMT -8
Imagine the premium they'd be willing to pay for a brand new Apple product targeted to their needs, rather than years-old devices. What needs would those be that aren't addressed by a 2 year old iPhone? Anything that has to do with data speeds is controlled by their local carriers, not Apple. Most Chinese customers are still being served by 2G networks, 3G is coming online, 4G/LTE is virtually non-existent. In that environment, as a Chinese customer, I'd find limited value of anything more than glorified feature phones marketed as cheap 'smart phones'. Even if Apple and China Mobile find a way to team up, the limitations of China Mobile's network is going to restrict sales. Apple isn't going to see dramatic increases in iPhone sales in China until Chinese networks are, at minimum, 3G with strongly growing 4G/LTE coverage. With a population 4X greater than the US, and a rapidly growing "middle class", there are more than enough wage earners that can afford Apple's latest/greatest without discounting it. 4" screen New design (even middle-class people like new products over old ones) Increased durability over 4/4S Lightning connector Easier to manufacture, especially compared to the 5 (more of a benefit to Apple than the consumer, but a benefit nonetheless) Is that not enough for you?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 7, 2013 13:07:30 GMT -8
Without camera matching all those glass inlays, production rates should be quite a bit faster.
Assuming this all comes to pass, I'm thinking Apple could do much better than the 1M improvement in launch sales last year...
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Post by applemuncher on Aug 7, 2013 13:12:16 GMT -8
I alternately view the now-seeming-inevitable release of the iPhone 5C with anticipation and trepidation Talking with others from the forum, I've come to believe that the 5C designation, change in case material and color, is a strategy to differentiate the 4S with 30 pin connector, from a "4S" with 9 pin connector. All other specs (mobo) to remain the same. The "C" in 5C, if it is indeed a real product, stands for Connector. I also believe the "leaked" photos (again if real) are meant to distract attention from what Apple will release as its flagship. Maybe the C stands for Color? Be careful presenting speculation as fact.
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Post by lovemyipad on Aug 7, 2013 13:20:21 GMT -8
Technically speaking AAPL is OK down to 440 by price channel analysis. But I'd prefer we not go there. The hourly chart looks bullish, pull back may be over./bullish tinted glass off. Bullish divergence on 1H. Let's see... Not sure which comes first, retest of highs or retrace toward 457-ish. At the moment, divergences suggest the former. But the moment can pass...in a moment.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 7, 2013 13:22:02 GMT -8
I can see the anti-iPhone ads now.
"The iPhone 5C has colors. We've got wood. Moto X."
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Post by mace on Aug 7, 2013 13:31:32 GMT -8
The hourly chart looks bullish, pull back may be over./bullish tinted glass off. Bullish divergence on 1H. Let's see... Not sure which comes first, retest of highs or retrace toward 457-ish. At the moment, divergences suggest the former. But the moment can pass...in a moment. "Not sure"? Ofc is not sure, otherwise we would all be RICH
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 7, 2013 13:39:20 GMT -8
I alternately view the now-seeming-inevitable release of the iPhone 5C with anticipation and trepidation Talking with others from the forum, I've come to believe that the 5C designation, change in case material and color, is a strategy to differentiate the 4S with 30 pin connector, from a "4S" with 9 pin connector. All other specs (mobo) to remain the same. The "C" in 5C, if it is indeed a real product, stands for Connector. I also believe the "leaked" photos (again if real) are meant to distract attention from what Apple will release as its flagship. Gregg, are you trolling us? The "C" for connector? ;D And yes, there's a product coming...the odds are equal to the sun coming up tomorrow.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 7, 2013 13:44:02 GMT -8
4" screen New design (even middle-class people like new products over old ones) Increased durability over 4/4S Lightning connector Easier to manufacture, especially compared to the 5 (more of a benefit to Apple than the consumer, but a benefit nonetheless) Is that not enough for you? In my opinion none of the items address customer needs. Except for the first item, I seriously doubt the remaining items are on customer buying decision lists.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 7, 2013 13:46:53 GMT -8
Without camera matching all those glass inlays, production rates should be quite a bit faster. Assuming this all comes to pass, I'm thinking Apple could do much better than the 1M improvement in launch sales last year... I'll bet Apple already knows how many units they will report as "sold" that first weekend, because that's all they are going to make available for that first weekend.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 7, 2013 13:49:51 GMT -8
Gregg, are you trolling us? The "C" for connector? ;D It's as good a guess as is 'color'. : )
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Post by ericinaustin on Aug 7, 2013 13:49:54 GMT -8
One would think that there would be buying today given that it goes XD tomorrow but doesn't seem like it. Hey Phoebes, Reports from Sunday's open practice at RU indicate very positive reviews for Chris, your neighbor. Said he had a strong and accurate arm. He'll probably red-shirt this year, however, since Chase Dodd is 2nd string QB (and a senior), and there is another older QB ahead of Chris as well. But I look for him to make some noise next year. Rutgers has a football team?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 7, 2013 13:52:23 GMT -8
Talking with others from the forum, I've come to believe that the 5C designation, change in case material and color, is a strategy to differentiate the 4S with 30 pin connector, from a "4S" with 9 pin connector. All other specs (mobo) to remain the same. The "C" in 5C, if it is indeed a real product, stands for Connector. I also believe the "leaked" photos (again if real) are meant to distract attention from what Apple will release as its flagship. Maybe the C stands for Color? Be careful presenting speculation as fact. "if it is indeed a real product". I thought that pretty much indicated speculation.
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Post by tuffett on Aug 7, 2013 13:55:52 GMT -8
4" screen New design (even middle-class people like new products over old ones) Increased durability over 4/4S Lightning connector Easier to manufacture, especially compared to the 5 (more of a benefit to Apple than the consumer, but a benefit nonetheless) Is that not enough for you? In my opinion none of the items address customer needs. Except for the first item, I seriously doubt the remaining items are on customer buying decision lists. Well I (along with almost everyone else) think you're wrong. Can't imagine why a consumer would want a newer, more durable product. And the first item is a big deal - why do you disregard it? That alone is reason enough to ditch the 4S for something new. Time will tell.
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Post by mace on Aug 7, 2013 14:03:52 GMT -8
Gregg, are you trolling us? The "C" for connector? ;D It's as good a guess as is 'color'. : ) C clearly means China. iPhone 5C is essentially current iPod touch 16GB + camera + LTE and color, and for China market only. Price $349 unlocked.
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Post by tuffett on Aug 7, 2013 14:12:23 GMT -8
Maybe the C stands for Color? Be careful presenting speculation as fact. "if it is indeed a real product". I thought that pretty much indicated speculation. If grass is green, then pigs can fly...
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Post by Lstream on Aug 7, 2013 14:12:29 GMT -8
Nah, it really means Cupertino, California or Cook. Or the most likely real winner. Absolutely Nothing. In fact I, now predict that if this phone gets launched it will be the iPhone 5AN.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 7, 2013 14:24:38 GMT -8
Nah, it really means Cupertino, California or Cook. Or the most likely real winner. Absolutely Nothing. In fact I, now predict that if this phone gets launched it will be the iPhone 5AN. You forgot the -1a ala iPhone 5AN-1a : )
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Post by applemuncher on Aug 7, 2013 14:31:57 GMT -8
Maybe the C stands for Color? Be careful presenting speculation as fact. "if it is indeed a real product". I thought that pretty much indicated speculation. Do you think the 5C will help Apple meet their "internal numbers"?
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Post by ericinaustin on Aug 7, 2013 14:44:21 GMT -8
[quote author=greggthurman
What needs would those be that aren't addressed by a 2 year old iPhone?
Anything that has to do with data speeds is controlled by their local carriers, not Apple. Most Chinese customers are still being served by 2G networks, 3G is coming online, 4G/LTE is virtually non-existent.
In that environment, as a Chinese customer, I'd find limited value of anything more than glorified feature phones marketed as cheap 'smart phones'.
Even if Apple and China Mobile find a way to team up, the limitations of China Mobile's network is going to restrict sales.
Apple isn't going to see dramatic increases in iPhone sales in China until Chinese networks are, at minimum, 3G with strongly growing 4G/LTE coverage.
With a population 4X greater than the US, and a rapidly growing "middle class", there are more than enough wage earners that can afford Apple's latest/greatest without discounting it.[/quote]
Gregg
I get your point but that doesn't explain why Samsung is selling so many cheap phones on the same network. The same network constraints would apply to their phones yet they sell boatloads of them. Three predictions.....
1. Tim's visit to china mobile was to finalize and sign contracts. ( I agree with a poster several days ago that they wouldn't send Cook just for more talks at this point)
2. When they announce the new phones, a new cheaper phone will be included and they will announce the deal with china mobile at the same time.
3. They will sell huge numbers of them because people love the apple brand in china and the only reason they haven't bought is the unsubsidized price is simply out of reach for such a large number on the china mobile network.
Two other points are that this will likely mean that margins will lower a bit but the units they move will be so massive that it will not matter and more to this boards discussion , I think it will be an incredible time to take a big option risk ( calls timed for after the holiday quarter reports or weekly calls to catch the huge bump right after the announcement.)
Eric in Austin
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Post by ericinaustin on Aug 7, 2013 14:47:27 GMT -8
Any thoughts how you would play options if those things happen at the phone announcement ?
Eric
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Post by lovemyipad on Aug 7, 2013 14:54:45 GMT -8
Bullish divergence on 1H. Let's see... Not sure which comes first, retest of highs or retrace toward 457-ish. At the moment, divergences suggest the former. But the moment can pass...in a moment. "Not sure"? Ofc is not sure, otherwise we would all be RICH Did you just give me the MAD FACE?!?!?!
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Aug 7, 2013 15:00:18 GMT -8
I alternately view the now-seeming-inevitable release of the iPhone 5C with anticipation and trepidation Talking with others from the forum, I've come to believe that the 5C designation, change in case material and color, is a strategy to differentiate the 4S with 30 pin connector, from a "4S" with 9 pin connector. All other specs (mobo) to remain the same. The "C" in 5C, if it is indeed a real product, stands for Connector. I also believe the "leaked" photos (again if real) are meant to distract attention from what Apple will release as its flagship. Wow....I can't see this. In effect, designate a new product's identity by an obsolete connection method? A method Apple got away from as soon as it could on the iPad line. The new phone would have a bigger screen than a 4s...and come in colors. it will be faster....why focus on the connector and why stay with the old screen size? Am I misunderstanding this?
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Post by tuffett on Aug 7, 2013 15:06:03 GMT -8
Talking with others from the forum, I've come to believe that the 5C designation, change in case material and color, is a strategy to differentiate the 4S with 30 pin connector, from a "4S" with 9 pin connector. All other specs (mobo) to remain the same. The "C" in 5C, if it is indeed a real product, stands for Connector. I also believe the "leaked" photos (again if real) are meant to distract attention from what Apple will release as its flagship. Wow....I can't see this. In effect, designate a new product's identity by an obsolete connection method? A method Apple got away from as soon as it could on the iPad line. Am I misunderstanding this? It's the last thing it would possibly stand for, if they even mention that it stands for anything. "Introducing iPhone 5C! C for connector, even though the 5, 5S, iPod, and iPad have the same connector..."
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Post by rickag on Aug 7, 2013 15:10:16 GMT -8
I don't understand why many people believe an iPhone 5C would lower margins over that of the iPhone 4/4S. Without knowing the Bill of Materials I would think Apple has considered this and may have come up with a cost that at least maintains margins equal to or better than those of the 4/4S models.
We shall soon find out.
Edit spelling
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Dave
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Post by Dave on Aug 7, 2013 15:33:59 GMT -8
Congrats to all the Tesla longs, guys Yes, truly amazing. Wish I had bought more.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 7, 2013 15:47:28 GMT -8
Anyone worrying about apples company wide margin slipping due to a cheaper iPhone 5C needn't worry. Each incremental iPhone 5C sale will have a margin greater than the company wide margin, so each sale will be positive to GM%. Even wall street has already figured this out: tech.fortune.cnn.com/2013/06/03/apple-cheap-iphone-margins/I highly recommend reading the above link. It's from early June, and it's worth noting that Katy Huberty absolutely nailed the effect of the discounted iPhone 4 last quarter increasing shipment to 31 million units and raising company margins to 36.9% - it was a remarkably insightful observation that proved precisely correct.
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Post by tuffett on Aug 7, 2013 15:52:39 GMT -8
Excellent point. The only way it will negatively impact margins is if there is significant cannibalization of the iPhone 5S. It's not impossible but Apple can play their cards right to avoid this as much as possible.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 7, 2013 15:58:25 GMT -8
There's multiple reasons why a new mid range iPhone will be more attractive to consumers than 2-3 year old iPhones, but putting them aside for a moment, it simply makes sense from a margin standpoint.
Not only will the cost of materials be cheaper, but so will warranty costs associated with returns related to glass backplate damage and to all the other engineering related issues that apple has solved in the years since the iPhone 4/4s development. And then we have economies of scale discounts available to the iPhone 5C sharing the same components (screens, connectors, SoCs etc) as other current apple products.
The iPhone 5C replacing the iPhone 4/4S is:
1. Good for Apple (sales & margins) 2. Good for users (obviously) 3. Good for developers (less fragmentation) 4. Good for accessory makers (one connector, one form factor) 5. Good for Shareholders (because of all of the above, and more positive sentiment)
I simply do not see how keeping the iPhone 4/4S instead of replacing with a new model could in anyway be anywhere near as advantageous.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Aug 7, 2013 16:00:54 GMT -8
There's multiple reasons why a new mid range iPhone will be more attractive to consumers than 2-3 year old iPhones, but putting them aside for a moment, it simply makes sense from a margin standpoint. Not only will the cost of materials be cheaper, but so will warranty costs associated with returns related to glass backplate damage and to all the other engineering related issues that apple has solved in the years since the iPhone 4/4s development. And then we have economies of scale discounts available to the iPhone 5C sharing the same components (screens, connectors, SoCs etc) as other current apple products. The iPhone 5C replacing the iPhone 4/4S is: 1. Good for Apple (sales & margins) 2. Good for users (obviously) 3. Good for developers (less fragmentation) 4. Good for accessory makers (one connector, one form factor) 5. Good for Shareholders (because of all of the above, and more positive sentiment) I simply do not see how keeping the iPhone 4/4S instead of replacing with a new model could in anyway be anywhere near as advantageous. +1. Well said
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