Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 8, 2013 11:54:24 GMT -8
Constructive but not actionable, IMHO.
The trend is fine. There's just a lot going on between today and tomorrow.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Aug 8, 2013 11:54:35 GMT -8
Something I suspected may be actually happening. What I suspected is that the JAN $550/$600 BCS is a hot ticket and accounts for the high Open Interest on both Strikes. Currently JAN $550 Call Open Interest = 29,833 JAN $600 Call Open Interest = 57,663 Today's volume JAN $550 Call = 719 JAN $600 Call = 719 Cost on that $50 Spread is currently $3.20. 100 contracts cost $32,000 and could gross $500,000 in 6 months. Open Interest on the $600s is significantly higher (almost double) than the $550s. Isn't there a lot of 600 and above OI left over from when the January 14's served as LEAPS for the buyers in September 2012 and before? I am always suspicious of the January expiration. That is the last big mess of failed dreams to be burned off.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 8, 2013 11:58:16 GMT -8
Something I suspected may be actually happening. What I suspected is that the JAN $550/$600 BCS is a hot ticket and accounts for the high Open Interest on both Strikes. Currently JAN $550 Call Open Interest = 29,833 JAN $600 Call Open Interest = 57,663 Today's volume JAN $550 Call = 719 JAN $600 Call = 719 Cost on that $50 Spread is currently $3.20. 100 contracts cost $32,000 and could gross $500,000 in 6 months. Open Interest on the $600s is significantly higher (almost double) than the $550s. Isn't there a lot of 600 and above OI left over from when the January 14's served as LEAPS for the buyers in September 2012 and before? I am always suspicious of the January expiration. That is the last big mess of failed dreams to be burned off. Yes.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 8, 2013 12:01:56 GMT -8
Even 550 by January? Let's see 485 first.
OT - Shoulda stayed with the FSLR swing short. Oh well.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 8, 2013 12:04:07 GMT -8
prazan, I use FSC myself. A lot. ;D IIRC, they NEVER div-adjust.
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Post by nagrani on Aug 8, 2013 12:14:41 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 8, 2013 12:17:42 GMT -8
Monetization, baby!
Resistance is futile. You will be assimilated monetized.
And li'l ol' me will start using iOS Maps quite a bit more, I'm thinking.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 8, 2013 13:01:49 GMT -8
Advertising Revenue: This is the pressure mounting on Google. And another reason to use iOS.
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Post by lovemyipad on Aug 8, 2013 13:37:49 GMT -8
I find Stochastics is one of the best technical tools to know when an AAPL swing is coming. Stochastics hit 99+ when it went over 470. That creates a short term high as there is now no more room to go up. Keep an eye on this technical. I have started using it that past few months and it is extremely helpful for determining approx. bottoms and tops Just watch out for when it embeds. See my notes in the right margin on that.
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Post by lovemyipad on Aug 8, 2013 13:39:11 GMT -8
I am always suspicious of the January expiration. That is the last big mess of failed dreams to be burned off. I've had the exact same thought, but your turn of phrase is far superior. ;D
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Post by lovemyipad on Aug 8, 2013 13:40:39 GMT -8
prazan, I use FSC myself. A lot. ;D IIRC, they NEVER div-adjust. My *only* platform that adjusts is StockCharts, and it looks like they have adjusted.
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Post by terps530 on Aug 8, 2013 13:42:05 GMT -8
Isn't there a lot of 600 and above OI left over from when the January 14's served as LEAPS for the buyers in September 2012 and before? I am always suspicious of the January expiration. That is the last big mess of failed dreams to be burned off. Yes. Yes x2. The majority of these were opened in Q1 2013 and have been pummeled, and are just sitting in people's accounts for the hope of getting some value back. I've collected data at various dates throughout the year for the Jan '14s. 2/05/13- JAN $550 Call Open Interest = 8,390 JAN $600 Call Open Interest = 11,311 4/05/13- JAN $550 Call Open Interest = 19,285 JAN $600 Call Open Interest = 52,107
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Post by Deleted on Aug 8, 2013 14:28:58 GMT -8
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Post by macziggy on Aug 8, 2013 14:33:45 GMT -8
Something I suspected may be actually happening. What I suspected is that the JAN $550/$600 BCS is a hot ticket and accounts for the high Open Interest on both Strikes. Currently JAN $550 Call Open Interest = 29,833 JAN $600 Call Open Interest = 57,663 Today's volume JAN $550 Call = 719 JAN $600 Call = 719 Cost on that $50 Spread is currently $3.20. 100 contracts cost $32,000 and could gross $500,000 in 6 months. Open Interest on the $600s is significantly higher (almost double) than the $550s. Isn't there a lot of 600 and above OI left over from when the January 14's served as LEAPS for the buyers in September 2012 and before? I am always suspicious of the January expiration. That is the last big mess of failed dreams to be burned off. I checked the OI of the January 14 550/600 call spread with ToS chart and as of January 30, 2013, there were 10,987 spreads (top price was $48, bottom $8 then). Today there is an OI of 29,800. So, although some of these were purchased (or sold) as LEAPS, the majority have been purchased (or sold) after January. If you caught the low on April 24 of $0.25 then it's an interesting gamble (865 spread volume that day from a high of $4.81 to a low of $0.25...mostly buys from the data I have). If AAPL miraculously closes January OpEx >$600 and you bought 100 contracts @ $0.25, then, you've just made yourself a cool $497,500!! Ha! Also...last August 21, 60 contracts of that spread were SOLD at various prices with a high of $48.35, with several other 50-60 contract sales during September. Interesting!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 8, 2013 15:31:37 GMT -8
Merced, that report is complete BS. The board has had many meetings to agitate about what they can't see in Apple's future product pipeline (as we here know, they're among the few privy to this info). ;D
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Post by appleaddict on Aug 8, 2013 15:34:21 GMT -8
Grasparino is grasping at straws. Haven't seen his name since he left CNBC. I guess the glasses are supposed to make him look more educated or something. I agree with your assessment.
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Post by redinaustin on Aug 8, 2013 15:37:17 GMT -8
Do you really need to know more than the story is from Charlie "I'm an Insider" Gasparino?
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Post by lovemyipad on Aug 8, 2013 16:06:52 GMT -8
I checked the OI of the January 14 550/600 call spread with ToS chart... Thank you! Very cool data!
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Post by tuffett on Aug 8, 2013 16:08:57 GMT -8
Good news for US smartphone sales (especially Apple) amid concerns that people will be upgrading less often:
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 8, 2013 16:18:06 GMT -8
Well, the 2-year cycle has been in play for so long now. Doesn't seem to be hurting Apple much more than any other vendor. So it's all the same to me. iPhone 5 owners jump to 6, 4S to 5S or 5C, etc etc
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Aug 8, 2013 19:15:02 GMT -8
I am always suspicious of the January expiration. That is the last big mess of failed dreams to be burned off. I've had the exact same thought, but your turn of phrase is far superior. ;D I know a lot about messes and failed dreams....
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Post by Deleted on Aug 8, 2013 20:19:02 GMT -8
Gasparino is a classic example of how weak the talent is at CNBC. Look at how they fare after they leave.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 8, 2013 20:52:20 GMT -8
I predict the ITC will uphold its earlier finding in favor of Apple tomorrow. Will ghe ITC ignore its recent embarrassments and decide to do the right thing on its own and rule against Samsung? I say yes.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 8, 2013 21:06:40 GMT -8
If one were to believe the crackpot theory that the commission intentionally ruled against Apple to get the White House to make a "more forceful" statement than it could on its own - maybe. It's been such a mixed bag, who knows. It _would_ be a nice surprise, but upside surprise? That, I also don't know. ;D There's monthly OpEx looming too. Speaking of which, time to check out Pain Range.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 8, 2013 21:08:57 GMT -8
An ITC win may vault us over $470. Otherwise, the fix is in between $460-$470.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 8, 2013 21:36:50 GMT -8
$470? Aggressive target if you ask me. Though that kinda news would be a pretty significant sentiment boost.
460+ seems OK considering ex-div.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 8, 2013 21:41:54 GMT -8
Btw, that June ruling in favor of Samsung happened in AH, so who knows if the ruling due Friday will actually arrive in time to influence the regular session.
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