Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 15, 2013 9:05:38 GMT -8
I had some fun this morning. Ovi called to tell me that he took the plunge a bought his first Weekly
He bought the Week 4 $515 Call at $2.50.
I checked the options chain and saw that the Week 4 $520 Cal was selling for $2,62 (Bid). I discussed creating a Spread out of his straight Call purchase with Ovi. He placed the order to Sell the Week 4 $520 Call at $2.62. A moment later his order filled.
Ovi now owns a Week 4 $515/$520 Call Spread, but here's the neat part, it cost him nothing, excepting his fees (which were partially offset by the extra 12 cents he sold the $520 for. Now if AAPL fails to reach $515 by August 23 Close he loses nothing. If, on the other hand, AAPL reaches $520 by August 23 Close he makes $500. No risk, 100% upside.
|
|
aapldamus
Member
"Miss Cleo ain't got NOTHING on me!"
Posts: 64
|
Post by aapldamus on Aug 15, 2013 9:21:18 GMT -8
There was a risk though, there is no guarantee the price of AAPL will continue up after you purchase the long leg of the trade. I've been burned many times by this exact strategy, with AAPL moving against me. It's almost always better to buy the spread intact from the onset, unless you have some serious TA guiding your decision. That way if after you buy the spread, the market moves against you, the short leg insulates you quite a bit from the brunt of the damage. Just my $0.02 Mr. Sponge if you are reading this, learned from school of hardknocks.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 15, 2013 9:24:42 GMT -8
New US unemployment claims number was at a 6 year low. Good news for America, but encourages Fed tapering to begin, which is bad for equity market (apparently). Damocles Sword. On the one side cheap capital won't be so cheap in the future. This could hurt equities. It'll hurt the bond market even more. On the flip side it means the US economy is strengthening at a faster rate. A stronger economy means more consumer free spendable cash. I like the trade off, so did WS (at least those that favor equities over bonds) when scaling back QE was first discussed.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 15, 2013 9:33:49 GMT -8
There was a risk though, there is no guarantee the price of AAPL will continue up after you purchase the long leg of the trade. I've been burned many times by this exact strategy, with AAPL moving against me. It's almost always better to buy the spread intact from the onset, unless you have some serious TA guiding your decision. That way if after you buy the spread, the market moves against you, the short leg insulates you quite a bit from the brunt of the damage. Just my $0.02 Mr. Sponge if you are reading this, learned from school of hardknocks. Ovi had no intention of owning a Spread when he bought the Week 4 $515 Call. He created the Spread after I showed what had happened since he bought the Call. In a Bull run, as AAPL finds itself today, the risk associated with a Spread delayed construct is no greater than buying the Spread intact. To the contrary, since AAPL bottomed at $385, and with a one month time frame a delayed construct Spread would have increased yield and reduced risk 100% of the time.
|
|
|
Post by tuffett on Aug 15, 2013 9:49:23 GMT -8
That argument is contingent upon knowing of a bull run before it happens. In the real world, we don't know where price is going, especially in the near term, so a spread reduces both risk and reward. Buying a naked call can leave you with an immediate large loss - that's the risk.
|
|
|
Post by lance on Aug 15, 2013 10:13:59 GMT -8
I read the Issacson book like probably most of the people on this board. The guy is writer not an apple engineer or apple executive or stock analyst. He wrote a great book mainly because he wrote what steve jobs told him. Thats it. His opinion on Apple's future IMHO is just fluff for a few more book sales. He doesn't work for Apple or have any new inside info. IMHO whenever I have heard him discuss Apple's future about being troubled from what I see it sounds like he is guessing out of thin air. I respect John Sculley and Steve Woz and Cramer's opinion on Apple's future and Apple's stock more than this writer and that is not saying much at all.
|
|
|
Post by terps530 on Aug 15, 2013 10:30:45 GMT -8
Hey red- another almost spot on 2:14 push...
is it just the after lunch giddy-up or what??
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Aug 15, 2013 10:35:02 GMT -8
Hey, was that 489 print another one of those phantom prints?
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 15, 2013 10:37:45 GMT -8
That argument is contingent upon knowing of a bull run before it happens. In the real world, we don't know where price is going, especially in the near term, so a spread reduces both risk and reward. Buying a naked call can leave you with an immediate large loss - that's the risk. Whatever.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 15, 2013 10:41:16 GMT -8
SMA50 crossed the SMA100 today. The SMA20 is well above both and going up rapidly.
For anybody with the balls to invest, as opposed to being habitual naysayers...We're IN a Bull Run, and have been since June 28.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Aug 15, 2013 10:42:48 GMT -8
I sure hope anybody's been in AAPL since at least, well, Friday? And AAPL was in breakout since 440.
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Aug 15, 2013 10:47:40 GMT -8
Hey red- another almost spot on 2:14 push... is it just the after lunch giddy-up or what?? I have no idea why it seems to happen, but it seems to happen.
|
|
chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
|
Post by chinacat on Aug 15, 2013 10:52:08 GMT -8
Hey red- another almost spot on 2:14 push... is it just the after lunch giddy-up or what?? I have no idea why it seems to happen, but it seems to happen. Sounds just like TA and Pain to me! (No offense meant to anyone, just couldn't resist)
|
|
|
Post by doublerainbow on Aug 15, 2013 11:10:42 GMT -8
SMA50 crossed the SMA100 today. The SMA20 is well above both and going up rapidly. For anybody with the balls to invest, as opposed to being habitual naysayers... We're IN a Bull Run, and have been since June 28. yay. market is down 1.6% (as of now) and we're flat after a 3 day massive run... I'm feeling pretty good
|
|
|
Post by tuffett on Aug 15, 2013 11:16:56 GMT -8
That argument is contingent upon knowing of a bull run before it happens. In the real world, we don't know where price is going, especially in the near term, so a spread reduces both risk and reward. Buying a naked call can leave you with an immediate large loss - that's the risk. Whatever. Insightful thoughts as always.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Aug 15, 2013 11:40:50 GMT -8
Wooooo GOOG That H&S sure looking like it's triggering. /photo/1
|
|
|
Post by rob_london on Aug 15, 2013 11:50:39 GMT -8
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Aug 15, 2013 11:53:48 GMT -8
Never hurts to be skeptical and act on the assumption that the fingerprint sensor's baked into the share price. I think 5C will be the draw for WS from now to next year more than 5S, b/c of its better reach into markets like Greater China
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Aug 15, 2013 12:08:34 GMT -8
Is it possible to have a mini- whhhhheeeee on a down day? This almost deserves it.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Aug 15, 2013 12:12:27 GMT -8
Except for that 489 print, which I'm not convinced means much, this was a bear-scaring day.
If AAPL closes near 500 Friday, that could be big short-term. Would be nice to have the moving averages catch up though.
Price action still seems really strong to me for now.
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Aug 15, 2013 12:16:00 GMT -8
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Aug 15, 2013 12:19:51 GMT -8
Is this like the iTunes radio chatter right before the intro? Dare I hope this is for real?
China Mobile...that ever elusive booster rocket for AAPL..."official" access to 700M or so subscribers is quite the prize.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Aug 15, 2013 12:25:39 GMT -8
Dediu in a new Twitter debate with Ben Evans about the Android threat. Agree with Dediu on this one too. I'm hugely oversimplifying but "net engagement" << higher-paying customers in much higher than critical mass numbers. It's like saying BMW is threatened by Chevy, except that Apple already plays in the cheaper smartphone space. Next month's iPhone 5C or whatever intro will be all kinds of fun.
|
|
|
Post by rickag on Aug 15, 2013 12:31:20 GMT -8
I had some fun this morning. Ovi called to tell me that he took the plunge a bought his first Weekly He bought the Week 4 $515 Call at $2.50. I checked the options chain and saw that the Week 4 $520 Cal was selling for $2,62 (Bid). I discussed creating a Spread out of his straight Call purchase with Ovi. He placed the order to Sell the Week 4 $520 Call at $2.62. A moment later his order filled. Ovi now owns a Week 4 $515/$520 Call Spread, but here's the neat part, it cost him nothing, excepting his fees (which were partially offset by the extra 12 cents he sold the $520 for. Now if AAPL fails to reach $515 by August 23 Close he loses nothing. If, on the other hand, AAPL reaches $520 by August 23 Close he makes $500. No risk, 100% upside. Good for Ovi, nice play to eliminate risk.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 15, 2013 12:41:41 GMT -8
Is this like the iTunes radio chatter right before the intro? Dare I hope this is for real? China Mobile...that ever elusive booster rocket for AAPL..."official" access to 700M or so subscribers is quite the prize. The real prize is the top 20% (80/20 rule) of those subscribers (140 Million). If 20% of those (80/20 rule again) buy an authorized iPhone in the following year, the increase in unit sales would come close to equalling a full quarter of iPhone sales this year.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 15, 2013 13:00:43 GMT -8
Does anybody have a chart depicting Apple's quarterly net cash flow for the last three years?
I'm working on a thought that I discussed with Sponge today. I could look it up in Apple's 10Qs, but I'm hoping to avoid that task.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 15, 2013 13:03:04 GMT -8
Looks like the LONG google/SHORT Apple trade is unwinding at ferocious speed. Looks like google has broken down through its recent support level?
|
|
|
Post by jdubuc on Aug 15, 2013 13:05:15 GMT -8
Dediu in a new Twitter debate with Ben Evans about the Android threat. Agree with Dediu on this one too. I'm hugely oversimplifying but "net engagement" << higher-paying customers in much higher than critical mass numbers. It's like saying BMW is threatened by Chevy, except that Apple already plays in the cheaper smartphone space. Next month's iPhone 5C or whatever intro will be all kinds of fun. I haven't caught up with the latest, but isn't Evans' thesis essentially that there's a point at which sheer number of users and net engagement overcomes a smaller number of higher-paying customers? Perhaps I'm oversimplifying, but as a developer if Android earns me 20% of the revenue per-user that iOS does, but has greater than 5x the number of users then Android becomes the more attractive platform for my mobile app (assuming the same development effort on my part, which is nowhere near the case).
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Aug 15, 2013 13:10:16 GMT -8
Perusing today's big option trades, I noticed that someone transacted 1K strangles: OCT'13 480 puts + OCT'13 525 calls
Looks like short strangles as both executed closer to the prevailing bid prices.
In which case, someone is betting the fruit stays inside that range +/- the premium received ($25.40) for at least a while. That would be 454.60 - 550.40
Not a bad bet. ;D
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 15, 2013 13:19:22 GMT -8
All the talk about Apples possible iPhone lineup this year has reached a feverish pitch. I can only imagine how next years will be even worse.
Great week for AAPL accounts. Once we reach the $700 level again I will actually be in a better position than last year when we reached the same level. This 10 month downward spiral at least enabled us to add more cheap positions.
|
|