|
Post by lovemyipad on Aug 16, 2013 17:01:23 GMT -8
The bar is open!
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Aug 16, 2013 17:25:53 GMT -8
Big week! Big week! Squiggly lines followers and fundamental folks walk arm in arm into the bar.....smiles on all faces.
|
|
|
Post by jdrizzo89 on Aug 16, 2013 17:31:44 GMT -8
Cheers to the longs indeed. Anyone think September is "the month" the Fed stops the narcotic like QE stiimulus. Just trying to brain storm possible ways this bullish outlook can be turned upside down.
To those that "believe" in it or don't. Very interesting how apple has so soundly defeated the Friday pinning/clustering limits. Obvious positive signal that was a regular on apples up runs of 2011 and 2012. Over 64k calls at 520 next week. Lets best that please.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Aug 16, 2013 18:02:04 GMT -8
The battle for 500 was a bit option driven, don't you think Red? iPad? Maybe it's just me.
We can all respectfully disagree of course.
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Aug 16, 2013 18:19:54 GMT -8
I think 500 was a prize that was difficult for the bulls to win. We might have closed over it sooner, Wednesday or Thursday, but for that call wall. So, yes...I think a lot of today was option focused. Many shares will change hands this weekend...
Now, I was intrigued by the fact that as soon as we dipped below 500, bump...back up and strong into the close. Volume was o.k. But not great. It wasn't a lack of buyers but a dearth of sellers.
The OE logjam now behind us, If we can clear 504....520 could be in play. Quite amazing.
I know many here don't like CNBC. But this week it's a love fest over there...
|
|
|
Post by mace on Aug 16, 2013 18:24:02 GMT -8
Red,
The in-thing to talk about is house prices are driven to stratosphere especially in SFBA because of low inventory (resulting from ... is a separate debate), wealthy tech workers and foreign monies from China, India and Canada.
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Aug 16, 2013 18:27:20 GMT -8
Red, The in-thing to talk about is house prices are driven to stratosphere especially in SFBA because of low inventory (resulting from ... is a separate debate), wealthy tech workers and foreign monies from China, India and Canada. Mace, what does EW portend...presumably the mega bull run intact?
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Aug 16, 2013 18:33:28 GMT -8
Deutsche Bank Comments On Apple In Note 'AAPL: Carl is on to something'
"Carl Icahn has taken a $1.5B position in AAPL and is suggesting the company should raise debt and aggressively buyback shares (we expect Carl to be back in the press with more detailed plans soon). We analyzed the financial impact of this scenario with a sensitivity analysis of share buybacks ranging from $25- 70B at share prices ranging from $500-700. We also assumed a 2% cost of debt, which is modesty above where AAPL's 5 and 10 year notes are trading."
"This analysis is incremental to AAPL's current capital return program (i.e. $100B by 2015). ...we estimate a $50B buyback at an average price of $500 would boost AAPL's FY14 EPS by ~$4.25 or 10.5%. In addition, for each additional $50 in AAPL's share price, EPS accretion would decline by ~1% (i.e. $50B buyback at $550 is 9.2% EPS accretion). Apple has ample capacity to execute such a buyback with $140 per share of net cash (or ~$129B) and we are modeling $45/ share of FCF generation in FY14."
"In addition, a buyback at current levels (i.e. $50B buyback at $500) would be self funding on a cash basis, since the interest expense on the debt at ~2% totaling $1B would be offset by ~$1.2B in lower dividend payments (resulting from the retirement of dividend bearing common stock). As a result, we'd view an accelerated capital return program favorably as it is: 1) self funding, 2) highly accretive to earnings and 3) lowers Apple's cost of capital without decreasing its flexibility."[/i]
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Aug 16, 2013 18:38:38 GMT -8
The battle for 500 was a bit option driven, don't you think Red? iPad? Maybe it's just me. We can all respectfully disagree of course. Reminded me of JAN'13 OE.
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Aug 16, 2013 18:39:01 GMT -8
For a long time Wall Street treated Apple's cash as meaning nothing. Now that they are using it it is solid gold!
|
|
|
Post by appledoc on Aug 16, 2013 19:15:14 GMT -8
This feels great. For many reasons. I highly suggest everyone load the boat on the next dip.
|
|
|
Post by macwire on Aug 16, 2013 20:31:02 GMT -8
P A T R O N
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 16, 2013 21:37:29 GMT -8
This feels great. For many reasons. I highly suggest everyone load the boat on the next dip. Actually, this run, while deserved, is making me nervous. It wasn't that long ago I touted AAPL popping about $50 from day of October earnings to the second Friday afterwards, and being blasted for the thought. Now, AAPL has moved $49 in three days and everybody is euphoric. It seems like just yesterday, people were calling for TC's head, or demanding that Apple change its business model (to be more like Samsung). The turnaround of member sentiment makes me nervous.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 16, 2013 22:33:56 GMT -8
Deutsche Bank Comments On Apple In Note 'AAPL: Carl is on to something'"Carl Icahn has taken a $1.5B position in AAPL and is suggesting the company should raise debt and aggressively buyback shares (we expect Carl to be back in the press with more detailed plans soon). We analyzed the financial impact of this scenario with a sensitivity analysis of share buybacks ranging from $25- 70B at share prices ranging from $500-700. We also assumed a 2% cost of debt, which is modesty above where AAPL's 5 and 10 year notes are trading." "This analysis is incremental to AAPL's current capital return program (i.e. $100B by 2015). ...we estimate a $50B buyback at an average price of $500 would boost AAPL's FY14 EPS by ~$4.25 or 10.5%. In addition, for each additional $50 in AAPL's share price, EPS accretion would decline by ~1% (i.e. $50B buyback at $550 is 9.2% EPS accretion). Apple has ample capacity to execute such a buyback with $140 per share of net cash (or ~$129B) and we are modeling $45/ share of FCF generation in FY14." "In addition, a buyback at current levels (i.e. $50B buyback at $500) would be self funding on a cash basis, since the interest expense on the debt at ~2% totaling $1B would be offset by ~$1.2B in lower dividend payments (resulting from the retirement of dividend bearing common stock). As a result, we'd view an accelerated capital return program favorably as it is: 1) self funding, 2) highly accretive to earnings and 3) lowers Apple's cost of capital without decreasing its flexibility." [/i][/quote] I've been basically saying this for a year...why pay a 3% dividend when you can issue debt at 2% and not have to pay that 3% dividend, saving yourself the 1%. It's like free money and good for shareholders as well.
|
|
|
Post by rezonate on Aug 17, 2013 1:30:04 GMT -8
Red, The in-thing to talk about is house prices are driven to stratosphere especially in SFBA because of low inventory (resulting from ... is a separate debate), wealthy tech workers and foreign monies from China, India and Canada. Wish this were true. My house in Connecticut has been on the market since February. Have had to drop the price three times. If it sells for my asking price I'll be net -20% from 2007. "The recovery" is just a fiction propagated by talking heads.
|
|
|
Post by macwire on Aug 17, 2013 4:03:46 GMT -8
Aapls daily looks a little like the starting of the right side of a huge cup and handle. Right side of the cup forming
|
|
|
Post by nagrani on Aug 17, 2013 5:46:11 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Aug 17, 2013 6:57:05 GMT -8
This feels great. For many reasons. I highly suggest everyone load the boat on the next dip. Actually, this run, while deserved, is making me nervous. It wasn't that long ago I touted AAPL popping about $50 from day of October earnings to the second Friday afterwards, and being blasted for the thought. Now, AAPL has moved $49 in three days and everybody is euphoric. It seems like just yesterday, people were calling for TC's head, or demanding that Apple change its business model (to be more like Samsung). The turnaround of member sentiment makes me nervous. I don't mind everyone feeling a bit vindicated. It would bother me if a retrace to 475 caused knashing of teeth and rending of garments. Some retrace before September 10 would be a good thing...
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 17, 2013 7:31:10 GMT -8
Red, The in-thing to talk about is house prices are driven to stratosphere especially in SFBA because of low inventory (resulting from ... is a separate debate), wealthy tech workers and foreign monies from China, India and Canada. Wish this were true. My house in Connecticut has been on the market since February. Have had to drop the price three times. If it sells for my asking price I'll be net -20% from 2007. "The recovery" is just a fiction propagated by talking heads. All depends where you live. I get postcards from realtors weekly saying inventory is low and prices are rising. My place is up at least 20% from when I bought in Dec. '11.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 17, 2013 8:23:18 GMT -8
Red, The in-thing to talk about is house prices are driven to stratosphere especially in SFBA because of low inventory (resulting from ... is a separate debate), wealthy tech workers and foreign monies from China, India and Canada. Wish this were true. My house in Connecticut has been on the market since February. Have had to drop the price three times. If it sells for my asking price I'll be net -20% from 2007. "The recovery" is just a fiction propagated by talking heads. Only 20% appreciation since 2007? I should be so luck. I paid $400K (high for this area) for my 100 year old home, then put $200K+ into restoring it. Cash. I'm refinancing it and the appraisal came in at $325,000. I bought it for duration (already picked out a spot in the backyard where I want to be buried), so the valuation doesn't mean that much to me. But before you cry in your milk you should consider how fortunate you are that you haven't lost money.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Aug 17, 2013 8:33:04 GMT -8
I'm thinking of a follow-up to my tweets on an "exit strategy" for shorter/more macro timeframe as a quick thought exercise.
|
|
|
Post by lucy on Aug 17, 2013 9:00:44 GMT -8
I have my own nightmare concerning real estate and housing. No lengthy story but I'll never buy another house.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 17, 2013 9:16:59 GMT -8
I lost plenty from 2006 to 2011 in real estate, but the ok thing about it is that your place competes in the same market. If you own one parcel you have not gained or lost anything.
You have to live somewhere, over the rainbow, preferably.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 17, 2013 9:28:21 GMT -8
Great information on PED's site today, a chart of who's buying and selling AAPL in the June quarter. Is there a history of this data available? The recent AAPL movement suggests some rotation out of the bear plays...look at Goldman and Chase in particular. tech.fortune.cnn.com/2013/08/17/apple-institutions-whale-13f/
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Aug 17, 2013 9:31:33 GMT -8
StockTwits...so many gems.
One guy says within a week that a "proprietary signal" says buy AAPL (on Tue?), his daughter says Apple is no longer cool, avoid AAPL because of daily RSI?
|
|
|
Post by Lstream on Aug 17, 2013 9:40:59 GMT -8
Wish this were true. My house in Connecticut has been on the market since February. Have had to drop the price three times. If it sells for my asking price I'll be net -20% from 2007. "The recovery" is just a fiction propagated by talking heads. Only 20% appreciation since 2007? I should be so luck. I paid $400K (high for this area) for my 100 year old home, then put $200K+ into restoring it. Cash. I'm refinancing it and the appraisal came in at $325,000. I bought it for duration (already picked out a spot in the backyard where I want to be buried), so the valuation doesn't mean that much to me. But before you cry in your milk you should consider how fortunate you are that you haven't lost money. I read the original post as saying minus 20%.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Aug 17, 2013 9:47:48 GMT -8
Yup. Negative 20%.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 17, 2013 9:51:33 GMT -8
Only 20% appreciation since 2007? I should be so luck. I paid $400K (high for this area) for my 100 year old home, then put $200K+ into restoring it. Cash. I'm refinancing it and the appraisal came in at $325,000. I bought it for duration (already picked out a spot in the backyard where I want to be buried), so the valuation doesn't mean that much to me. But before you cry in your milk you should consider how fortunate you are that you haven't lost money. I read the original post as saying minus 20%. Time for coffee....20%, plus or minus is "strong" lol
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Aug 17, 2013 9:59:47 GMT -8
No car thread, now we have house thread. My summer place.....
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Aug 17, 2013 10:08:01 GMT -8
Where's that barf emoticon...
|
|