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Post by Deleted on Aug 20, 2013 0:19:34 GMT -8
Early PM prints at $510.00
Looking at all the debate over the "Gold" iPhone recently, I have five comments
1. Is this the first 'Special Project' of Paul Deneve? (Recent hire from Yves Saint Laurent reporting direct to TC). I imagine adding a gold option is something he could have come up with in July and quickly had added to the launch options. 2. This is great for vanity purchasers, there's a big chunk of buyers who like flaunting the latest and greatest - they would love something that definitively differentiates the 5S from the 5. 3. Playing on the above, will the gold model be limited to the also rumoured $850+ 128GB iPhone 5S SKU? 4. Every female I have shown the images of the gold iphone mockup has immediately gone gaga over it. 5. Apple has done it before, does everyone remember the premium black plastic MacBook?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 20, 2013 0:26:53 GMT -8
1) You're kidding, right? It's a just a color choice, and it dates back to iPod mini! 2) In a sense, iPhone itself is vanity. Jony's glass inlays were more than just for wireless reception, though depending on how one values fashion, maybe you'd say "less"? 3) Could be! I think it's been done before. But I bet it's more of a, if you want _access_ to gold, you gotta buy up and yes you still get the other color choices at that price point. Might not be "disagreeing" at all on this point. And hey, just call it $949 if 16/32/64GB remain at their present price points. Dammit, a capacity increase is overdue, who'll make the first move in that department? Oh well, at least it's mildly helpful to margins. 4) Red's comments about the Commodore make me suddenly extremely optimistic about the 5S's unit sales prospects. ;D 5) Well, like I said, see the gold iPod mini. Though yep, the "BlackBook" was a cult hit in its day. Never saw many of 'em though. PM update: Currently light red as of last print. Who knows, maybe it's because of market jitters. I am "net short", sorta (long VIX calls, short FSLR via puts, nothing too big), so cautiously optimistic. ;D
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Post by yellowhandman on Aug 20, 2013 0:43:40 GMT -8
Dunno if anyone has made this point…
I'm Chinese, albeit not from China. Mainland Chinese - and indeed, many Chinese - LOVE gold items. Things that would look outrageously gaudy to Western tastes are viewed very differently.
This will sell incredibly well in China.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 20, 2013 0:59:15 GMT -8
Mercel certainly did make that point.
Apple does not do "outrageously gaudy". Not intentionally. But hey, gold is gold, and if it helps Apple a bit with Greater China, awesome. But really, the key is China Mobile much more than some color choice IMHO.
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Post by appledoc on Aug 20, 2013 1:09:58 GMT -8
YTD for my rising/falling MACDh (buy at the close when it rises, sell at the close when it falls, and sell before earnings release)... Started the year by buying 10 shares @506.09. Now holding 13 shares @507.74 + $18 in cash. Up 30.1% for the year. AAPL is down 8.3% for the year. Nice work! Far better than I've done. By MACDh I'm assuming you're looking at the hourly chart. Too late for you to see this, I'm sure, so I may repost tomorrow, though I usually can't get to the boards until late. Daily MACD histogram. I haven't actually been carrying out this method, but those would be the returns if you had. I would be doing it if I could guarantee that I could check MACDh and execute a trade at market close every day.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 20, 2013 1:13:14 GMT -8
If only real life let us trade that way, eh?
I still remember back when 24-hour trading (or was it 7-days-a-week?) was being considered. Am I remembering correctly, iPad, mace, phoebear? What a different trading world it might have been.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 20, 2013 1:14:35 GMT -8
prazan, the "h" MACD-h stands for histogram. It's a pain to always have to classify which one, but it is what it is.
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Post by appledoc on Aug 20, 2013 1:39:23 GMT -8
If only real life let us trade that way, eh? I still remember back when 24-hour trading (or was it 7-days-a-week?) was being considered. Am I remembering correctly, iPad, mace, phoebear? What a different trading world it might have been. It's pathetic that even with what little capital I have left, I have made more money trading than I have at work since I started residency. My dream is still to become self sufficient by trading.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 20, 2013 2:27:02 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 20, 2013 2:29:17 GMT -8
Oh wow. Iron Man/Minority Report-style UI would be pretty damn sweet if Apple can pull it off.
Would also make moving apps to the next "page" a lot simpler than it currently is. ;D
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Post by Deleted on Aug 20, 2013 2:34:14 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Aug 20, 2013 2:35:16 GMT -8
Oh wow. Iron Man/Minority Report-style UI would be pretty damn sweet if Apple can pull it off. Would also make moving apps to the next "page" a lot simpler than it currently is. ;D Indeed!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 20, 2013 2:39:38 GMT -8
I would add: "Can't innovate anymore my #$$" (/Schiller)
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 20, 2013 2:48:55 GMT -8
My puts look to be toast. ;D OTOH, I suppose my calls might be in play? Heck with it. Probably should just sell both at once and move on.
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Post by macwire on Aug 20, 2013 3:36:55 GMT -8
If the indexes can bounce aapl should go. Maybe. Lol.
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Post by appledoc on Aug 20, 2013 4:04:38 GMT -8
Nice PM turnaround.
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Post by nagrani on Aug 20, 2013 4:11:49 GMT -8
Mav - 4 more posts to 7000 for you. I have enjoyed reading all of them.
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Post by phoebear611 on Aug 20, 2013 4:20:50 GMT -8
The Katy Huberty article that burgess pointed out is making its rounds. The commentary was quite positive. I believe it's helping us in the PM.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 20, 2013 4:31:32 GMT -8
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Post by Lstream on Aug 20, 2013 4:33:27 GMT -8
The only thing I have to add re: today's dialogue on TA. Analogous to astronomy, NOT astrology!! Astronomy? There's hope then, as I'm looking forward to the day TA is subjected to the rigors of the scientific method, as it is the honesty of science that one doesn't posit a theory if it can't be tested. I posted the results of some academic research a while back with sound methods that show that TA is of little value. At the risk of over-generalization, the response was that you have to use the tools and apply them to understand and derive value. So I think TA has been subjected to the rigours of the scientific method many times and the results are clear. But I don't use the tools, so I can't really judge the counter argument that they are of use in actual practice. The academic work is convincing enough for me to stay away. Original post referencing academic work on TA
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Post by lovemyipad on Aug 20, 2013 4:54:01 GMT -8
IMHO, if you're looking for predictive value, TA fails the crystal ball test. Like everything else.
By Mercel's yardstick, if it isn't a crystal ball, then it has no value.
Obviously, I have a different yardstick.
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Post by lovemyipad on Aug 20, 2013 4:57:38 GMT -8
515 retest underway... Break above with conviction, next target 520-525 zone. Fail to break and hold, back toward 500.
Daily MACD-h has yet to put in a lower bar. Does that predict anything? No. It just tells me that despite yesterday's late-day sell off, the upside momentum has NOT yet registered sufficient signs of waning on a daily basis. Is there value to you in knowing that? Maybe not. There is to me.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 20, 2013 5:15:24 GMT -8
IMHO, if you're looking for predictive value, TA fails the crystal ball test. Like everything else. By Mercel's yardstick, if it isn't a crystal ball, then it has no value. Obviously, I have a different yardstick. I couldn't resist. ;D I liked Mav's analogy with TA and art. If enough people like it (or in this case, trade on it), then it probably has some value. Personally, I don't think Andy Warhol has anything to worry about.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Aug 20, 2013 5:24:22 GMT -8
I just want to not that even when we are debating these days, the tone of the debat is so much more pleasant.
That's what a hundred points will do for you. At 600 we'll have a weenie roast , sing kumbaya and discuss why men are from Mars and women are from Venus....then buy the book from Amazon on our new gold iPhones.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 20, 2013 5:24:56 GMT -8
It's going to be interesting to see how well Samsung's "iWatch" does ahead of Apple's heavily rumored iDevice. I wish Apple had led with this, but unlike Apple, Samsung doesn't have to get everything right with it. In typical Samsung style, they're throwing in the kitchen sink, developed from all the rumors floating out there about Apple's product. There are no expectations for Samsung to succeed with it, so I hope a mediocre product doesn't taint the potential for what Apple is working on. gizmodo.com/rumour-samsung-smart-warch-has-camera-speakers-nfc-1170908617
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Post by Deleted on Aug 20, 2013 5:31:58 GMT -8
We need more power to hurdle $515 (like what Lovey was saying, I think) Attachments:
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Post by macwire on Aug 20, 2013 5:45:47 GMT -8
General market continues to drag on. Market internals are deteriorating IMO ...
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 20, 2013 5:49:25 GMT -8
Technicals is also like pain range? ;D
Blah day on the active trades but I am net up from when I placed the new trades, so a small woohoo is in order I guess.
Re-shorting IBM to keep a hedge around. Trying to play it to 183 or possibly to 180. Thesis: Technicals/sentiment driven. IBM has proven a _lack_ of ability to bounce unless some usual suspect helium names. So let's try going with the downtrend! Again. I never learn. ;D
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 20, 2013 5:51:35 GMT -8
Lost out on the AAPL trade, fortunately the losses were balanced out by my VIX/FSLR/IBM trades (tho not by much).
Mar 14 90/100 TBT appears to be doing well for me. Might consider an exit depending on Wednesday. Fed may change the fortunes of that trade in a not good way. ;D
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Post by dougal on Aug 20, 2013 6:05:02 GMT -8
If anyone on this forum wanted to know if TA had any validity, they could start by reading this book, which in addition to describing the general logical / statistical fallacies which lead to a belief in the efficacy of TA, details the author's (and his students') statistical testing of something like one thousand technical trading signals. Waiting to hear from you after you've read this book (or even scholarly review of it.) Oh yes, Elliot Wave Analysis? That's quickly treated by a historical review of results compared to overall market. Attachments:
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