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Post by Lstream on Aug 20, 2013 10:37:51 GMT -8
You mean just in China? So the 5C in China has no LTE, but elsewhere it would? No, everywhere. First time or new smartphone users will often not want expensive data plans or care much about LTE. Those that do will typically go for the higher end phones. I'm speaking very generally of course. No solution is going to please everyone but this may be best for Apple and most consumers should not have a problem with it. If the 5C is "too good" I forsee issues with cannibalization. The Verizon footprint for LTE now almost matches their 3G footprint. I think a non LTE phone would be a disaster in North America. Apple would be crucified for doing this and rightfully so in my opinion. Plus they would have huge carrier resistance who would actively sell against the iPhone even more than they do now. LTE is way more efficient for them from a network perspective, and they would have good reason to convince customers to stay away. Finally, I think consumers would have a huge problem with it. Apple selling a deliberately crippled phone, when even the cheap Android garbage has LTE? I sure hope they don't try this.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 20, 2013 10:39:07 GMT -8
Mercel certainly did make that point. Apple does not do "outrageously gaudy". Not intentionally. But hey, gold is gold, and if it helps Apple a bit with Greater China, awesome. But really, the key is China Mobile much more than some color choice IMHO. I'm not Chinese, but at one time had offices in Beijing and Chengdu. Gold, and hues/shades thereof, are highly desired in Asia, particularly in China.
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Post by prazan on Aug 20, 2013 10:42:57 GMT -8
Nice work! Far better than I've done. By MACDh I'm assuming you're looking at the hourly chart. Too late for you to see this, I'm sure, so I may repost tomorrow, though I usually can't get to the boards until late. Daily MACD histogram. I haven't actually been carrying out this method, but those would be the returns if you had. I would be doing it if I could guarantee that I could check MACDh and execute a trade at market close every day. Thanks for the follow up!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 20, 2013 10:43:19 GMT -8
It is quite remarkable how good her analysis has become of late. I wonder if she has hired an assistant.
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Post by tuffett on Aug 20, 2013 10:53:53 GMT -8
No, everywhere. First time or new smartphone users will often not want expensive data plans or care much about LTE. Those that do will typically go for the higher end phones. I'm speaking very generally of course. No solution is going to please everyone but this may be best for Apple and most consumers should not have a problem with it. If the 5C is "too good" I forsee issues with cannibalization. The Verizon footprint for LTE now almost matches their 3G footprint. I think a non LTE phone would be a disaster in North America. Apple would be crucified for doing this and rightfully so in my opinion. Plus they would have huge carrier resistance who would actively sell against the iPhone even more than they do now. LTE is way more efficient for them from a network perspective, and they would have good reason to convince customers to stay away. Finally, I think consumers would have a huge problem with it. Apple selling a deliberately crippled phone, when even the cheap Android garbage has LTE? I sure hope they don't try this. Both your points were mentioned in my "cons" list. I am aware of the potential fallout. At the same time, I'm of the opinion that there will always be some huge problem with every iPhone launch. At least Apple would about this one in advance. It's a tricky situation. I know of many non-power users who, although they are paying for the data, disable LTE to save battery life and eat up less data on their limited plans. No LTE would also make the battery life claims more appealing. Even in the west, there are tons of people who would want the Apple ecosystem but mainly talk/text/Instagram etc. without necessarily needing LTE. Perhaps an option would be the best thing. It would allow Apple to reach a lower starting price point while also allowing people who want LTE to have it, recovering a bit of margin in the process.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 20, 2013 11:03:43 GMT -8
AAPL action is iffy right now. Of course for perspective, AAPL's retraced ~10 points of a 125 pt. move. Friday to Friday intraday high, AAPL is up 7 of 8 weeks (assuming this Friday's intraday high is higher than $503). All things considered, a 10 pt selloff is nothing to be overly concerned about at this time.
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Post by terps530 on Aug 20, 2013 11:25:22 GMT -8
yesterday @ 511.xx BTO Oct 500 Put $16.40 just now STO Oct 490 Put $16.25
end result: practically free insurance with a 500/490 oct bear put spread for $0.15 + fees.
This position is dedicated to the TA lords.
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aapldamus
Member
"Miss Cleo ain't got NOTHING on me!"
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Post by aapldamus on Aug 20, 2013 11:27:56 GMT -8
I'm keeping an eye on 525/550/575 October butterfly spreads. If I can purchase @ 2.50 or lower, I'll be pretty safe as long as AAPL stays above 500 by end of September and below 568ish by end of October, with a potential to make between 150-843% between 533 and 568 by October expiry.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 20, 2013 11:42:55 GMT -8
This could be better... Yes, a nasty head and shoulder is developing. Instead of freaking out over a "head and shoulders" formation, I'd pay more attention to the blue trend line. Fundamentals trumps everything before it. Fundamentally, Apple is string and getting stronger. Getting out now would be 'short' sighted.
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Post by Lstream on Aug 20, 2013 11:51:52 GMT -8
The Verizon footprint for LTE now almost matches their 3G footprint. I think a non LTE phone would be a disaster in North America. Apple would be crucified for doing this and rightfully so in my opinion. Plus they would have huge carrier resistance who would actively sell against the iPhone even more than they do now. LTE is way more efficient for them from a network perspective, and they would have good reason to convince customers to stay away. Finally, I think consumers would have a huge problem with it. Apple selling a deliberately crippled phone, when even the cheap Android garbage has LTE? I sure hope they don't try this. Both your points were mentioned in my "cons" list. I am aware of the potential fallout. At the same time, I'm of the opinion that there will always be some huge problem with every iPhone launch. At least Apple would about this one in advance. It's a tricky situation. I know of many non-power users who, although they are paying for the data, disable LTE to save battery life and eat up less data on their limited plans. No LTE would also make the battery life claims more appealing. Even in the west, there are tons of people who would want the Apple ecosystem but mainly talk/text/Instagram etc. without necessarily needing LTE. Perhaps an option would be the best thing. It would allow Apple to reach a lower starting price point while also allowing people who want LTE to have it, recovering a bit of margin in the process. Your original post did not mention carrier resistance, or outright hostility. Guess we will see what happens at launch. In the meantime, I continue to think that no LTE (even as an option) would be a huge blunder. So we can agree to disagree. Even though I agree that lots of users don't "need" LTE for what they do with their phones. But marketing need is different than product need.
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Post by moltenfire on Aug 20, 2013 11:56:12 GMT -8
And not having LTE doesn't make the build of materials any significantly cheaper.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 20, 2013 12:00:00 GMT -8
Mav's Trading Desk update:
LOL momo play on NFLX since I figured it wanted to set a new 52-week high or something for no reason at all
BPS hedge on AAPL - Sep 13 500/485
Well aware both trades could just zero out ;D
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Post by Lstream on Aug 20, 2013 12:01:47 GMT -8
And not having LTE doesn't make the build of materials any significantly cheaper. Ya - that too.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 20, 2013 12:03:07 GMT -8
That was not the best of closes. H&S in danger of triggering, IMHO (of course, that assumes there is one).
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 20, 2013 12:04:01 GMT -8
I don't know if anyone else has noticed, but with any Close above $502 today, the 20 SMA will cross the 200 SMA.
Additionally, the 50 SMA has firmly crossed a rising 100 SMA.
Further, today's trading is above the extension of the trend line established between July 23 (day after July Earnings/Guidance) and August 5.
AAPL's trading since June 28 has been decidedly Bullish. While the trend line may weaken a bit, I expect that next week we will find today's action of no consequence.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 20, 2013 12:06:16 GMT -8
Close $501.59. 50 SMA crossed the 200 SMA.
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Post by Odd-Lot Richard on Aug 20, 2013 12:08:36 GMT -8
If Android can't get UI feel quite right, there's no way the Metro mashup that's Win 8 would. MSFT may be a damn good short one of these days. Mav, I think you missed the best opportunity, right after their last earnings. It went from $36+ to $31-ish, where it seems to have found "support," for the TA-inclined such as yourself. I know I certainly felt the drop.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 20, 2013 12:09:27 GMT -8
Well, I only have so much focus in a day, and I don't actively look to short MSFT. I'll live.
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Post by Odd-Lot Richard on Aug 20, 2013 12:24:24 GMT -8
Did anyone catch the news on Nuance's move to avoid an Icahn/Apple takeover, setting up a poison pill by creating a class of preferred shares available only to shareholders of record? I'm somewhat fuzzy on the details, but it seems shareholders before the end of August will receive 0.001 shares of preferred @$87 per common if someone acquires 20% without going through the board first. While they say this is not in response to a current takeover attempt, the recent acquisitions by Icahn and his new position in AAPL seems to have been the trigger.
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Post by Odd-Lot Richard on Aug 20, 2013 12:29:52 GMT -8
Well, I only have so much focus in a day Trader vs holder mindset I guess. I just spank that cash cow once a quarter. Not as much as I get from Apple now, but it's added up over the years.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 20, 2013 12:32:05 GMT -8
Super!
I'm not much into buy and hold with these crazy markets at present, though I do hold a bit of AAPL common. To each their own and best of luck to all. Betting on earnings of course is always risky, however it's approached.
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Post by Odd-Lot Richard on Aug 20, 2013 12:41:54 GMT -8
Close $501.59. 50 SMA crossed the 200 SMA. Gregg, I don't see the cross. Am I looking at the wrong time scale? I'm not very TA-savvy.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 20, 2013 13:21:27 GMT -8
The Katy Huberty article that burgess pointed out is making its rounds. The commentary was quite positive. I believe it's helping us in the PM. One comment on the Katy Huberty note being misinterpreted slightly is the $486 price point Chinese consumers would consider acceptable for the 5C: For Apple to hit this price in China it may need to set a wholesale price at $400 or lower. Due to taxes & tariffs the iPhone in China has usually been significantly more expensive than the standard Apple RRP.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Aug 20, 2013 13:22:02 GMT -8
yesterday @ 511.xx BTO Oct 500 Put $16.40 just now STO Oct 490 Put $16.25 end result: practically free insurance with a 500/490 oct bear put spread for $0.15 + fees. This position is dedicated to the TA lords. Very well done.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 20, 2013 13:23:37 GMT -8
Close $501.59. 50 SMA crossed the 200 SMA. Gregg, I don't see the cross. Am I looking at the wrong time scale? I'm not very TA-savvy. I chart trend lines myself. I'm showing the 20 SMA at $468.68, while the 200 SMA is showing $468.55. I base those numbers on Closing prices for the periods indicated. Oh, and please do not confuse me with a TA personality. I am not a subscriber.
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Post by nagrani on Aug 20, 2013 13:27:56 GMT -8
I don't believe in TA either. Guys like zaky who have traded on it have lose millions of dollars. People who use it in discussions often hedge TA so they are right either way. If someone believes that TA works - post price predictions and your trades. That's the best scale on its effectiveness. Apple is going up because new shit is on the horizon and sentiment is turning positive
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Post by Odd-Lot Richard on Aug 20, 2013 13:37:20 GMT -8
Gregg, I don't see the cross. Am I looking at the wrong time scale? I'm not very TA-savvy. I chart trend lines myself. I'm showing the 20 SMA at $468.68, while the 200 SMA is showing $468.55. Ah, 20-day. Yes, I see the cross now. Oh, and please do not confuse me with a TA personality. I am not a subscriber. No, I've been reading long enough to know that. Thanks!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 20, 2013 14:15:27 GMT -8
One comment on the Katy Huberty note being misinterpreted slightly is the $486 price point Chinese consumers would consider acceptable for the 5C: For Apple to hit this price in China it may need to set a wholesale price at $400 or lower. Due to taxes & tariffs the iPhone in China has usually been significantly more expensive than the standard Apple RRP. A thought occurred to me after speaking with the Sponge this afternoon. What if Apple is making a significant change to the iPhone (internally and externally), one in which it no longer uses aluminum, but plastic (with color options). What if the current iPhone 5, 4S and 4, are all being discontinued in favor of a new line appearing as the depictions of the iPhone 5C show. What if the next iPhone is designated: iPhone 5A US$650.00 Base Price iPhone 5B US$550.00 Base Price iPhone 5C US$450.00 Base Price With the deltas between them being: Processors (A5 - A7), Screens (Retina - ??), WiFi (802.11n - 802.11ac)/Bluetooth (4.0 - ??) radios, Memory (A/ 32 - 128, B/ 16 - 64, C/ 16 - 32). Cell radios are all Qualcomm's 'world' chips including China Mobile's TD-CDMA variant. All are equipped with fingerprint readers/authentication, and Apple's 9 pin connector. The different models, in such configurations, would fit the capabilities of emerging market carrier networks and developed nations' more advanced LTE networks, and allow the continuation of Apple's practice to roll this year's "A" model to next year's 2nd tier (aka lower priced) model. By the time Brazil/Russia/India/China gets 50+% LTE coverage (3 more years?) the iPhone 5A will be the low priced model. A shift like this would meet Apple's historical GM percentages (might even improve them), and give everyone purchasing an iPhone over the next 12 months, the feeling they are buying the latest/greatest (vs last year's model at a lower price). I think a move like this has the potential to crush Samsung/Android.
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Post by lovemyipad on Aug 20, 2013 14:16:02 GMT -8
Absolutely everyone who reads this board should know this:
TA DOES NOT PREDICT!!!
TA is informative, not predictive.
Got it?
IMHO, people who cite it and don't "hedge their bets" with some if/then criteria are just making wild ass guesses because NO ONE knows for sure what happens next. Be highly suspect of anyone who presents any forecast based on TA as a definitive gonna happen, as there are NO guarantees.
What you do with the information TA provides (given you know how to read the instrument panel) is subjective. For example, Andy Zaky kept expecting imminent reversals (down AND up) when, in fact, oscillators will embed during particularly strong trends. Divergences can go on and on and on with a particularly strong trend. So, saying someone lost money because of TA is plain wrong. Charts don't lie or make excuses; they tell it like it is, and that landscape can change any time, with or without notice.
If you don't see any value in TA and/or don't want to use it, no problemo. Don't. But please, PLEASE stop spreading misinformation ON THIS BOARD about what it is and what it is not. If you don't know, and you don't want to know, then kindly STFU.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 20, 2013 14:17:03 GMT -8
Apple is going up because new shit is on the horizon and sentiment is turning positive Oh, you mean FUNDAMENTALS.
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