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Post by macwire on Aug 20, 2013 15:59:49 GMT -8
Ok. TA says down tomorrow/short term. I say up tomorrow based on sentiment positive stuff happening in market. Lets circle back after market closes tomorrow. TA does not say anything about tomorrow!!! Only TODAY!!! I can extrapolate from waning momentum (objective), continuation (subjective): down. Someone else can extrapolate from a support level (objective), a second wind (subjective): up. The only thing TA says is: waning momentum and xxx level is support. The next step is all yours. And the "forecast" should be the same every time: break one support/resistance level, target the next. Fail to break, turn around and go the other way. Rinse and repeat. Don't bother. Lol.
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Post by jdrizzo89 on Aug 20, 2013 16:04:48 GMT -8
My simple take on fundamental vs technical : Fundamentally try to find a great company with proven CEO, great ROIC and great growth numbers in relation to PE or as Gregg says ISM. PEG for a quick look at PE to eps growth. Technicals - after what happened with apples great fall and me being caught up in LEAPs losing my ass and buying every time I "thought" it bottomed, I simply use it as a way to "limit my down side". I only buy when a multi day cross above the 30 day and sell below it. Keep in mind these are my "risky" Trades ie margin or long term calls. Ill still hold shares in great companies long term esp with dividend, just not to an extreme amount.
In short I only trade the best companies that have great fundamental strength that eventually will grow even more and use MA's not as a predictor, but as a way to not get too beaten up on the random extreme drops in stocks like apple. Obvious down side: ill miss out on the "bottom". Upside: ill (hopefully) live to fight another day
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Post by Deleted on Aug 20, 2013 16:44:25 GMT -8
Gregg, I don't purport to know WHY sentiment changes, beyond the pendulum of fear and greed. But you just listed the causes of Sentiment change. A couple weeks ago you stated that TA identifies what the Institutions are doing. I wanted to ask, at that time, how you thought Institutions made their decisions, but chose not to because I thought the question might be seen as just argumentative. Institutions own the lion's share of AAPL. Institutions make their investment decisions after an examination of a company's fundamentals. If the fundamentals are good, Institutional Sentiment goes up (greed for profits). If the fundamentals aren't good, Institutional Sentiment goes down (fear of losing money). I've said several times that I wanted to find a metric that identified Institutional Sentiment, so I could trade as they are trading. What I didn't realize was that that metric was right before me all the time. It is the comparison of Apple's quarterly performance over an extended range of prior performances. That meant a deeper reading/understanding of Apple's financials, something I thought I was doing, but wasn't. Anyway, that the reason behind my increased exultation ob understanding Apple's fundamentals.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 20, 2013 16:47:07 GMT -8
this has been a great discussion. Thank you all for participating.
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Post by lovemyipad on Aug 20, 2013 16:48:26 GMT -8
Gregg, I don't purport to know WHY sentiment changes, beyond the pendulum of fear and greed. But you just listed the causes of Sentiment change. A couple weeks ago you stated that TA identifies what the Institutions are doing. Me? *I* said that??? WHERE??? TA does no such thing!!!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 20, 2013 16:49:11 GMT -8
iPad did?! BAD IPAD! BAD!
please don't hurt me
Got a quote?
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Post by lovemyipad on Aug 20, 2013 16:51:09 GMT -8
If I said that, I'm losing my mind.
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Post by rickag on Aug 20, 2013 17:14:01 GMT -8
If you're holding common from say 450 and below? And you're more buying and holding? Non-advice, but about the current volatility... FUGGEDABOUTIT (/Brooklyn accent?) I have my core holdings all bought @ $177 down to $88. What I am doing is buying 25 share blocks waiting and will be selling enough to get my investment back and leaving the remainder in AAPL @ zero cost adding to my core holdings. I failed to get all in @ the last bottom, ~385, but waited for a clear uptrend (TA). I believe the uptrend will continue until the Sept 10th announcement, but with bumps in the road like what appears we are in now?? I may put in another stop limit @ 500 or there abouts tomorrow depending on the trend if it stays downward. If I don't I have plenty of ammunition to buy for a potential drop to ~ 470 - 490 (TA - EW). If the uptrend continues tomorrow I will rinse and repeat a similar strategy I used for my $500.81 / $511.25 purchases and start raising the stop limits on my earlier purchases minus the extra shares I will keep. Not as exotic as options or margins, or as profitable or maybe painful, but with AAPL stock at this point not a lot of risk.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 20, 2013 17:39:45 GMT -8
I'm rooting for every AAPL long with any strategy that suits their particular risk profile.
I personally got started on the long, perilous road back to even with a shockingly well-timed buy of AAPL common under 100.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 20, 2013 17:55:44 GMT -8
If I don't I have plenty of ammunition to buy for a potential drop to ~ 470 - 490 (TA - EW). You know, with all the discussion about a potential drop to $470ish, I see that as a no-brainer. AAPL is a volatile equity. It can move up or down 8% - 10% without any seeming reason. Current run intraday high was $513.74. Deducting 10% from that you get $462.36. Below that, without making all the TA calculations, would concern me, because now the drop is outside of AAPL's volatility range.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 20, 2013 17:57:18 GMT -8
Volatility range? Huh?
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Post by Deleted on Aug 20, 2013 17:58:09 GMT -8
I'm rooting for every AAPL long with any strategy that suits their particular risk profile. I personally got started on the long, perilous road back to even with a shockingly well-timed buy of AAPL common under 100. Someone had to have done it. That would have been back in January 2009. I sold some deep in the money Puts that expired worthless.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 20, 2013 17:59:49 GMT -8
Just a term I use to describe AAPL's ability (penchant?) to move rapidly up or down for no apparent reason. Note that the caution flags are out for a potential drop to $470ish. That's a 9% move against a five week up trend. Why? Who knows, but AAPL has a history of making moves like that, so I gave it a name.
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Post by mace on Aug 20, 2013 22:57:57 GMT -8
... For example, Andy Zaky kept expecting imminent reversals (down AND up) when, in fact, oscillators will embed during particularly strong trends. Divergences can go on and on and on with a particularly strong trend ... The key word is in bold. Second guess instead of letting TA or price to tell him what to do. For example, TA like ichimoku cloud would have tell him to get out of AAPL in late Oct when it broke below the cloud (around $610). And get back in late May ($440), out again in mid Jun ($420) and in again late jul ($440) and hold till now.
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Post by mace on Aug 20, 2013 23:45:38 GMT -8
TA is not a trading system. Neither is FA. You've to develop a trading system around them e.g. buy/sell signals, position size, risk/reward of a setup, etc. Also money/risk management.
Tools are of no value if you don't know how to use them. Even if you know how to use, you can still fail miserably e.g. I can get perfect score during simulated firing but miss a lot during an assault firing. So tired after running, can't steady the rifle. In the same vein, your emotions can affect your trading outcome a lot.
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Post by Lstream on Aug 21, 2013 3:03:16 GMT -8
I don't believe in TA either. Guys like zaky who have traded on it have lose millions of dollars. People who use it in discussions often hedge TA so they are right either way. If someone believes that TA works - post price predictions and your trades. That's the best scale on its effectiveness. Apple is going up because new shit is on the horizon and sentiment is turning positive I post all of my trades. I post all of my predictions. I've been saying for weeks that once we got above 465 we'd see 484 then 514 quickly. That's EXACTLY what happened. I said last week and all weekend that we'd close the gap to 514 and then retrace. I was off by less than 1.5 points. Now I'm saying retrace to upper 470s/low 490s. You can choose if you want to believe that or not. So how does this square with TA not being predictive? Seems to me this shows that the proponents don't actually agree on what it does or does not do.
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