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Post by lovemyipad on Aug 23, 2013 13:34:03 GMT -8
The bar is open!
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Post by Deleted on Aug 23, 2013 13:45:08 GMT -8
Not a bad week, a breather and consolidation is a good thing right?
On to product speculation:
With all the talk/evidence about a iPhone 5S with fingerprint scanner, I was thinking its probably also going to show up in the new iPad 5 as well right? That would be a fine upgrade indeed: slimmer, smaller, lighter, faster, fingerprint scanner. IPad ASP might even get a lift year on year for the December quarter and going forward as people choose the 9.7" model over the mini.
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Post by rosie on Aug 23, 2013 14:41:01 GMT -8
pocketnow.com/2013/05/29/fingerprint-scanning-smartphonesI can only wonder about the fingerprint scanner concept. the link above covers some seemingly valid issues. and...having done a lot of physical work in life I have very poor prints and in the past have needed to go to a special section of the WA state patrol to capture acceptable prints for an FBI check so I could get work.
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Post by chasmac on Aug 23, 2013 15:19:00 GMT -8
Rosie, if Apple does it, it will be different and better than this guy imagines. ArticleCheers :-)
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Post by steeler on Aug 23, 2013 16:31:56 GMT -8
Not sure anyone here listen to "This week in Tech" by TwiT. IN their most recent episode, it seems their guest is 100% sure about the the fingerprint scanner and even knows a little bit detail about that scanner.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 23, 2013 17:17:25 GMT -8
Who was the guest? Laporte host that one? I'd heard he's become something of an anti-Apple troll.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 23, 2013 17:19:58 GMT -8
Observation: StockTwits AAPL bears often have trouble with Carl's last name.
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Post by macwire on Aug 23, 2013 17:32:14 GMT -8
Stock twits is a cess pool. One quality poster out of a hundred. The aapl stream makes me want to hang myself with the power cord from my iMac.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Aug 23, 2013 17:39:26 GMT -8
Stock twits is a cess pool. One quality poster out of a hundred. The aapl stream makes me want to hang myself with the power cord from my iMac. Lol....it is mind boggling the garbage there....odd people trying to be provocative..
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 23, 2013 17:43:53 GMT -8
Does iTunes Radio make Pandora a good downside play? Hmmm....
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 23, 2013 17:45:13 GMT -8
I thought the Yahoo Finance message boards took the prize. I have to reevaluate that.
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aapldamus
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Post by aapldamus on Aug 23, 2013 19:00:40 GMT -8
This month so far has been great...(600% great). I have my butterfly setup for October (525/550/575). Not much to do but watch and see how price swings. I'm taking a webinar offered by my brokerage on butterflys on Wednesday as well. Should be fun. www.youtube.com/watch?v=T9sz9QzsWXclol
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 23, 2013 22:43:39 GMT -8
Steve wasn't always right of course. But sometimes:
Newsweek (remember them?), found via MacDailyNews 2004 archives.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 24, 2013 0:46:56 GMT -8
If one was to introduce multiple user profiles on an iPad, wouldn't it make sense to do it at the same time as implementing a fingerprint scanner?
It would probably also be a good idea on the yet to be released updated MacBook Pros.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 24, 2013 8:30:05 GMT -8
Thinking the same thing.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 24, 2013 9:07:31 GMT -8
pocketnow.com/2013/05/29/fingerprint-scanning-smartphonesI can only wonder about the fingerprint scanner concept. the link above covers some seemingly valid issues. and...having done a lot of physical work in life I have very poor prints and in the past have needed to go to a special section of the WA state patrol to capture acceptable prints for an FBI check so I could get work. Rosie, the technology the author is referring to only looks at the surface of your finger. This method is the least accurate, as you've experienced. Additionally the sensor has to be very close to the print being scanned. Current (as in pre Apple) manufacturing processes don't allow a protective layer to protect the sensors. The sensors, without a protective barrier, become contaminated by body oils, sweat, dust, etc, causing them to fail in as little as 3 months. Motorola tried to implement a fingerprint reader about two years ago, but had so many problems with sensor contamination they quickly discontinued the effort. Enter Authentec and Apple. Authentec's latest technology (now owned by Apple) reads the skin layer beneath the surface of your finger. This layer is where fingerprints are formed, and have not been damaged by the environment (such as you described). The benefit is far greater accuracy in the read. Secondly, Apple was recently awarded a manufacturing process that places a protective barrier between the environment and the sensors. The process allows for the close proximity of the print to the sensors, while protecting the sensors from contamination. When talking about fingerprint reader technology you must think in terms of Tech A (all previous methods) and Tech B (Apple and Apple owned technology). The two are as different as night and day. The really cool part of what Apple has developed is that it is comprised of two parts: the reader technology, and the process that manufactures the sensor assembly. Any attempt to copy this technology will be virtually impossible because of the requirement for both haves of the picture.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 24, 2013 9:16:50 GMT -8
Steve wasn't always right of course. But sometimes: Newsweek (remember them?), found via MacDailyNews 2004 archives. That IS interesting. Does Apple feel the time is right to switch from profits to market share? If it is, then we are all wrong. Apple isn't making a low cost iPhone, the entire lineup is being price reduced. If that is true, then how much can be shaved off the iPhone's ASP and still maintain ~35% GM overall (still much higher than the competition)?
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Post by Deleted on Aug 24, 2013 9:25:26 GMT -8
That IS interesting. Does Apple feel the time is right to switch from profits to market share? If it is, then we are all wrong. Apple isn't making a low cost iPhone, the entire lineup is being price reduced. If that is true, then how much can be shaved off the iPhone's ASP and still maintain ~35% GM overall (still much higher than the competition)? I just compared iPhone ASPs for FQ1/2013 to FQ3/2013, and found iPhone ASP to have dropped 9+%. Could Apple be lowering ASP by emphasizing lower priced models, vs an actual price reduction of the product line?
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Post by rickag on Aug 24, 2013 10:08:48 GMT -8
Greg
As you point out the average selling price has dropped 9% is a direct result of the relatively large percentage of 4 and 4S sales. This also affected the margins negatively. The ringer in what will happen is the margins on the new 5C.
Higher margins for the 5C means a smaller target market. Lower margins on the 5C = larger target market.
Personally, I am hoping for a 5C selling price in the 300 - 350 range which probably lowers overall margins but increases revenues and market share. If this results in an overall margin of 35% I would be deleriously happy.
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Post by tuffett on Aug 24, 2013 10:09:17 GMT -8
I hope you're right but I have little doubt that Samsung et al. will reverse engineer it in short order, possibly even in time for the S5 in mid-2014. As we know, patents do not deter them. They will either work around or blatantly infringe because any penalty will be several years later and pale in comparison to their profits.
Yes, there may be some proprietary processes from Authentec but they will be largely detailed in the patents and Samsung is likely more than capable of finding a way to copy it. Colour me pessimistic when it comes to unique patent-protected advantages these days.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 24, 2013 10:32:30 GMT -8
I hope you're right but I have little doubt that Samsung et al. will reverse engineer it in short order, possibly even in time for the S5 in mid-2014. As we know, patents do not deter them. They will either work around or blatantly infringe because any penalty will be several years later and pale in comparison to their profits. Yes, there may be some proprietary processes from Authentec but they will be largely detailed in the patents and Samsung is likely more than capable of finding a way to copy it. Colour me pessimistic when it comes to unique patent-protected advantages these days. Implementation is everything. It's not like Apple's thinking "oh hell, we'll just be copied anyway, why go on, let's just shut down the company and give the cash back to the shareholders". The company's gonna keep fighting through this rather unfortunate, immense hassle. Let the Galaxy S5 have S Password. Everyone will know where they got it from. And will it work decently well...with Android/Touchwiz? Vertically integrated still has its benefits, even if copytition is something of a (sketchy) counter to it. Also also, there may be a bigger sentiment danger from some yet-unknown/little-known entity who will ANY MOMENT NOW sue Apple for stealing its prior-patented fingerprint security system for one kajillion dollars. Or try to have it invalidated anonymously. The usual stuff.
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Post by tuffett on Aug 24, 2013 10:42:27 GMT -8
Fair points. Samsung has never implemented anything better though, and they're right up there with Apple.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 24, 2013 11:41:12 GMT -8
How about, always ahead of Apple from the word go. www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/612207 www.samsung.com/us/aboutsamsung/ir/financialinformation/auditedfinancialstatements/downloads/consolidated/2007_con_soi.pdfwww10.edacafe.com/nbc/articles/view_article.php?articleid=317893Smartphones the way of the future. Samsung with immense production capabilities and userbase. Samsung being a top-tier componentry provider and ARM license holder. And the latter two statements were true for Samsung...in 2007. Add in the not-so-hard-to-make inference that Samsung was smart enough to see the benefis of mix-shifting to smartphone ASAP... tuffett, we DO agree on the baseline, right? That Samsung has always had a lead. Now that Apple's _about_ the same size revenue-wise as Samsung Electronics, finally, it's much easier - and a bit fairer - to measure the competition between the two supergiants at around this point in time, or 2012 if you prefer. Trends take some time to develop and right now they're skewed the most against Apple, with iPhone 5 being as "old news" as it will get. How about we give it a year from iPhone 5S/5C.
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Post by steeler on Aug 24, 2013 11:43:58 GMT -8
Who was the guest? Laporte host that one? I'd heard he's become something of an anti-Apple troll. The guess is Clayton Morris, who seems to be very certain about the finger print scanner and he mentioned that it has a silver ring around the button.
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Post by tuffett on Aug 24, 2013 12:13:17 GMT -8
Mav, we agree for the most part. I know Samsung has been around and a huge player for a long time. I was more talking about profits though. It wasn't long ago that Apple was making more than double what Samsung was. They have caught up. Complete true that it's during a slow time for Apple and a recent launch from Samsung, but it concerns me nonetheless. I expect Apple to leap ahead again but the question is will they stay there?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 24, 2013 12:22:33 GMT -8
I don't care. Neither should you.
Samsung makes bazillions of handsets every year. OK, maybe that's more like somewhere north of 400M in 2013. According to estimates, anyway, since Apple is the only company that reports sold units.
Apple has only recently crossed over into 100M+ iPhone territory (per calendar year). And that's the very top of the market.
This game will take a long time to play out. The handset market may exceed 2B, 2.5B units per year over time. It may not, but I can see it approaching 2B before any falloff in the number.
Mix-shifting and adjusting will continue throughout the years.
An increasing share of handsets will be smartphones.
Exactly how many "smartphone" owners are willing to put up with the not-insubstantial cost of ownership (whether it's the device, subscription or PAYG plan) is incredibly difficult to quantify.
Over the very long term, the smartphone adoption curve will flatten out.
Samsung has a ton of models that it can still boost margin on.
Apple has all of two to three models that it apparently wants to _reduce_ margin on to stay competitive and engage in its own form of "going for share". We don't know Apple's "downmarket" ambitions at this time.
There is a very good chance that a $0 iPhone 5C has a lower gross margin than its "should-be" $0 equivalent, iPhone 4S, and an even higher chance that, if a $0 iPhone 5C exists, that this is by design.
This is incredibly complicated stuff. In a way, the only metric that makes decent sense over time is iPhone unit growth YOY, graphed over many quarters (or something like it). It's tough to benchmark against companies that don't even provide unit sales numbers, and it's tougher to trust "data-driven" firms that freely compare iPhone actual against everyone's else's estimated shipments.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 24, 2013 12:28:13 GMT -8
I hope you're right but I have little doubt that Samsung et al. will reverse engineer it in short order, possibly even in time for the S5 in mid-2014. As we know, patents do not deter them. They will either work around or blatantly infringe because any penalty will be several years later and pale in comparison to their profits. Yes, there may be some proprietary processes from Authentec but they will be largely detailed in the patents and Samsung is likely more than capable of finding a way to copy it. Colour me pessimistic when it comes to unique patent-protected advantages these days. As far as the Authentec portion of the technology goes you may be correct, but Apple has patented the manufacturing process resulting in a better device. That requires proprietary manufacturing equipment. The combination of the two, if copied, becomes so blatant that even Judge Clueless can see it.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 24, 2013 12:43:06 GMT -8
You can copy the Authentec device, maybe?, but integrating it into your own OS via a hardware/software combo is another matter.
Samsung doesn't exactly have its own OS.
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Post by tuffett on Aug 24, 2013 13:54:59 GMT -8
I hope you're right but I have little doubt that Samsung et al. will reverse engineer it in short order, possibly even in time for the S5 in mid-2014. As we know, patents do not deter them. They will either work around or blatantly infringe because any penalty will be several years later and pale in comparison to their profits. Yes, there may be some proprietary processes from Authentec but they will be largely detailed in the patents and Samsung is likely more than capable of finding a way to copy it. Colour me pessimistic when it comes to unique patent-protected advantages these days. As far as the Authentec portion of the technology goes you may be correct, but Apple has patented the manufacturing process resulting in a better device. That requires proprietary manufacturing equipment. The combination of the two, if copied, becomes so blatant that even Judge Clueless can see it. However blatant it is, it'll take years to go through the system. I think the design infringement of the S2 and Galaxy Tab were blatant too, but many judges have disagreed. Patents are complex and in the end have not shown to really reward innovation in this industry.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 24, 2013 14:07:11 GMT -8
Mav, we agree for the most part. I know Samsung has been around and a huge player for a long time. I was more talking about profits though. It wasn't long ago that Apple was making more than double what Samsung was. They have caught up. Complete true that it's during a slow time for Apple and a recent launch from Samsung, but it concerns me nonetheless. I expect Apple to leap ahead again but the question is will they stay there? "The upside down narrative of Samsung as a scrappy underdog In 2007, Apple's Annual Report cited fiscal year revenues of $24 billion and operating income of $4.4 billion. Samsung Electronics reported (PDF) sales of $98.5 trillion Korean Republic Won ($180 billion in today's USD) and $9 trillion KRW ($8 billion in today's USD) in total operating income. Samsung was earning something close to 7 times Apple's revenues, but only around twice its profits. Over the last six years of exploding smartphone sales, Apple has grown to report quarterly revenues of $35.3 billion in its cyclically slow calendar Q2, a multiple of nearly 6 times what it was collecting in 2007. But operating income is now at $9.2 billion, profit growth of more than 8 times over its earlier quarterly average."
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