Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 25, 2013 23:23:47 GMT -8
With tapering worries tapering off short-term, is it "party time" for equities again? As a current net long, I hope so. ;D If I miss the train on AAPL (until the next opportunity, anyway), I miss it. But I personally don't feel like I can try a trade until <500 or >505. Hopefully today will see AAPL outside that price band in either direction - though my WAG is that AAPL is a bit more likely to at least make its initial move to the upside.
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Post by qualitywte on Aug 26, 2013 4:22:02 GMT -8
How much would a CM deal bump the share price?
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Post by rickag on Aug 26, 2013 5:15:13 GMT -8
How much would a CM deal bump the share price? For me there are too many factors to consider. Even though CM has 700 million subscribers 1. Apple already has between 10 - 15 million iPhones being used on CM. 2. What will be the price for the iPhone 5C? 3. Based on the price for the 5c what % of CM subscribers will be able to afford it? 4. Also what % of of CM subscribers could afford an iPhone 5S? I believe Greg used the 80%/20% calculation. If 20% can afford the iPhone = 140 million subscribers If 20% of those buy an iPhone 20% X 140 million subscribers = 28 million iPhone sales. Of course not all would be buying immediately, but many of the 10 - 15 million subscribers that already have an iPhone would be upgrading. Say 10 million more iPhones by the end of 1st FQ 14, about a 25% increase in total iPhone sales worldwide. The final unknown is how would WS react? Depending on the iPhone 5C price / performance and margin I would hope WS reacts positively, but who knows? I think I should go into politics, I believe I posted a response that said nothing and blew a lot of hot air.
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Post by lance on Aug 26, 2013 5:21:04 GMT -8
A bunch of key technicals may come into play today with regard to possible dip in AAPL. 10 Day MA, stochastics, MACD. Key session today for direction. AAPL has had 4 straight sessions in downward channel. It was after 4 during the last dip AAPL rebounded. The open in critical and it is looking weak.
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Post by macwire on Aug 26, 2013 5:55:04 GMT -8
Looks like a high beta party out there...
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Aug 26, 2013 5:59:57 GMT -8
Up 4 to 504.50. Lets hold this through 10:15 and see what happens
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 26, 2013 6:10:25 GMT -8
Still early but didn't exactly scream out of the gate.
Had some calls on, stopped out soon after with enough profit for a week of fast food lunches or so.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Aug 26, 2013 6:31:36 GMT -8
Still early but didn't exactly scream out of the gate. Had some calls on, stopped out soon after with enough profit for a week of fast food lunches or so. I don't want screaming out of the gate..I want steady bumps up, gapless. Consolidation...bump...I'm down on all that drama
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Post by doublerainbow on Aug 26, 2013 8:44:49 GMT -8
I hope we can break $515 this week! last week's volume was pretty weak sauce.
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Post by macwire on Aug 26, 2013 8:45:51 GMT -8
GOOOOOOOO HIGH BETA PARTYTYYTTTYT
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Post by rob_london on Aug 26, 2013 9:08:32 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 26, 2013 9:34:17 GMT -8
HIGH BETA PARTY!!111!! is a giant disadvantage for most types of butterflies I'm learning, even shorter-dated ones.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 26, 2013 9:49:55 GMT -8
AAPL still doing OK. Will look at a smaller swing trade to stay involved just in case.
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Post by Nevyn on Aug 26, 2013 10:53:18 GMT -8
Still early but didn't exactly scream out of the gate. Had some calls on, stopped out soon after with enough profit for a week of fast food lunches or so. Are you buying regular calls or the minis? Minis have a higher commission and seem to have a higher spread for the ones I was looking at.
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Post by jdrizzo89 on Aug 26, 2013 11:17:06 GMT -8
So much for 508-510
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Post by qualitywte on Aug 26, 2013 11:27:35 GMT -8
How much would a CM deal bump the share price? For me there are too many factors to consider. Even though CM has 700 million subscribers 1. Apple already has between 10 - 15 million iPhones being used on CM. 2. What will be the price for the iPhone 5C? 3. Based on the price for the 5c what % of CM subscribers will be able to afford it? 4. Also what % of of CM subscribers could afford an iPhone 5S? I believe Greg used the 80%/20% calculation. If 20% can afford the iPhone = 140 million subscribers If 20% of those buy an iPhone 20% X 140 million subscribers = 28 million iPhone sales. Of course not all would be buying immediately, but many of the 10 - 15 million subscribers that already have an iPhone would be upgrading. Say 10 million more iPhones by the end of 1st FQ 14, about a 25% increase in total iPhone sales worldwide. The final unknown is how would WS react? Depending on the iPhone 5C price / performance and margin I would hope WS reacts positively, but who knows? I think I should go into politics, I believe I posted a response that said nothing and blew a lot of hot air. If there were an announcement, I think it could provide ~ 10% boost. I guess I'm most curious if the announcement comes with the new iPhones or at a later date. I think WS will love it!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 26, 2013 11:34:41 GMT -8
Ooook. What's with the dip? Overheated? Syria uncertainty? It's not tapering AFAIK, since the worse the data, the longer it gets put off.
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Post by terps530 on Aug 26, 2013 11:46:43 GMT -8
i think it's this debt limit story that just popped, but I'm not sure:
"The U.S. Treasury will reach its debt limit in mid-October, Dow Jones reported on Monday, citing sources familiar with the matter. That was "sooner than many on Capitol Hill had anticipated," the wire service said.
In the summer of 2011 a fight over the government's debt limit turned into a crisis that weighed heavily on markets.
(Read more: Jack Lew's quiet period?)
Treasury Secretary Jack Lew said earlier this year that the debt ceiling was unlikely to be reached until September.
"People shouldn't relax, Congress should deal with this right away. The uncertainty caused by putting this off is not good. The anxiety caused to the U.S. and world economy by putting this off until the last minute is not good," Lew said at the time."
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Post by macwire on Aug 26, 2013 11:50:23 GMT -8
Syria.
High beta party is over! lol.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 26, 2013 12:29:41 GMT -8
Quick party.
Treading semi-cautiously for now.
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Post by rickag on Aug 26, 2013 13:11:52 GMT -8
Not even enough interest to get to 2 pages of comments.
Edit: I was wrong, just like my BCSs.
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Post by lovemyipad on Aug 26, 2013 13:33:36 GMT -8
Ooook. What's with the dip? Overheated? Syria uncertainty? It's not tapering AFAIK, since the worse the data, the longer it gets put off. Macro. Broad market. Been a while. Didn't miss it. You?
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Post by redinaustin on Aug 26, 2013 13:47:29 GMT -8
Syria. High beta party is over! lol. There is nothing lol about Syria
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 26, 2013 14:39:56 GMT -8
Ooook. What's with the dip? Overheated? Syria uncertainty? It's not tapering AFAIK, since the worse the data, the longer it gets put off. Macro. Broad market. Been a while. Didn't miss it. You? Hi iPad, where you been, I don't think I followed all that
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 26, 2013 15:15:45 GMT -8
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Post by appledoc on Aug 26, 2013 17:20:43 GMT -8
From the weekend thread:
That's right. I do the best I can though. If I can, I buy before the close if I'm pretty sure the MACDh is going to flip. I'll also sell when I'm content with a profit. Sometimes I miss out on more run up. Other times I sell higher than I would have.
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Post by tuffett on Aug 26, 2013 17:28:26 GMT -8
nobody seen this yet?
Can't tell for sure but it looks like the 5S has gone even thinner. Not sure how I feel about that, if battery could have been beefed up as a trade-off. Both the 5S and 5C look nice though.
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