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Post by rob_london on Aug 29, 2013 2:15:55 GMT -8
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Post by phoebear611 on Aug 29, 2013 3:11:37 GMT -8
Over the last few weeks we have speculated on Sept. 10th being the event date and (fingers crossed) Friday, the 13th being the availability date. This morning at 5:50 a.m. on NBC News New York there was a segment that T-Mobile has told its employees that they may not take vacation on Friday, Sept. 20th and for the balance of that weekend. The news reporter speculated that that would be the date that the new iPhone will probably be made available. I am not sure if T-Mobile gets the iPhone at the same time or a little later than other carriers (brain freeze). Does anyone recall? Would love to see it before the 20th.
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Post by lovemyipad on Aug 29, 2013 3:25:18 GMT -8
A purported new iPad... it will be thinner, lighter...faster. Look for it in October. Can't wait for the thinner, lighter iPad...she really has been eating too many Doritos lately.
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Post by Nevyn on Aug 29, 2013 3:59:12 GMT -8
Western powers seem to be backing off on Syria waiting for official UN report. This could give the markets a month breather.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 29, 2013 4:32:26 GMT -8
Over the last few weeks we have speculated on Sept. 10th being the event date and (fingers crossed) Friday, the 13th being the availability date. This morning at 5:50 a.m. on NBC News New York there was a segment that T-Mobile has told its employees that they may not take vacation on Friday, Sept. 20th and for the balance of that weekend. The news reporter speculated that that would be the date that the new iPhone will probably be made available. I am not sure if T-Mobile gets the iPhone at the same time or a little later than other carriers (brain freeze). Does anyone recall? Would love to see it before the 20th. T-Mobile only got the iPhone for the first time back in April this year, normally all carriers in a country get it on same date so a Sep 20th date looks likely. Not great from the perspective of Q4 iPhone Revenue, but at least it means Q1 will likely be HUGE with an extra week of heavy post launch demand (compared to what would have happened if it was a Sep 13th launch).probably at least a few million units pushed from September to October.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 29, 2013 4:34:30 GMT -8
Ok GDP revisions & Jobs numbers.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Aug 29, 2013 5:08:10 GMT -8
Can't wait for the thinner, lighter iPad...she really has been eating too many Doritos lately. Lovey, when JD takes my innocent comment and turns it evil..I want indemnification. Eat as many Doritos as you want!
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Post by Nevyn on Aug 29, 2013 6:26:29 GMT -8
Over the last few weeks we have speculated on Sept. 10th being the event date and (fingers crossed) Friday, the 13th being the availability date. This morning at 5:50 a.m. on NBC News New York there was a segment that T-Mobile has told its employees that they may not take vacation on Friday, Sept. 20th and for the balance of that weekend. The news reporter speculated that that would be the date that the new iPhone will probably be made available. I am not sure if T-Mobile gets the iPhone at the same time or a little later than other carriers (brain freeze). Does anyone recall? Would love to see it before the 20th. Maybe Sep 13 is the preorder date?
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Post by macwire on Aug 29, 2013 7:15:05 GMT -8
It's early but are the indexes making a higher low? Need a week for it all to play out
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Post by Deleted on Aug 29, 2013 8:00:22 GMT -8
Not great from the perspective of Q4 iPhone Revenue, but at least it means Q1 will likely be HUGE with an extra week of heavy post launch demand (compared to what would have happened if it was a Sep 13th launch).probably at least a few million units pushed from September to October. Given that Apple usually ships the last weekend of the quarter, shipping on the 20th provides an extra week of next generation sales in FQ4. I see that as a positive.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 29, 2013 8:01:53 GMT -8
Lovey, when JD takes my innocent comment and turns it evil..I want indemnification. Eat as many Doritos as you want! Donuts. It wasn't Doritos, it was Donuts. Jelly filled. : )
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Post by lance on Aug 29, 2013 8:33:32 GMT -8
Technicals pointing to short term downtrend, but fundamentals, sentiment and news pointing up looks to equal out to flat. YAWN!!
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Aug 29, 2013 10:46:39 GMT -8
Opinions on the Google soap opera, with respect to company/stock performance (I don't care about the scandal part)? The fact that Brin's sister-in-law runs Google's ad business seems more significant to me than Barra going to Xiaomi.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 29, 2013 14:36:33 GMT -8
Opinions on the Google soap opera, with respect to company/stock performance (I don't care about the scandal part)? The fact that Brin's sister-in-law runs Google's ad business seems more significant to me than Barra going to Xiaomi. Can she do the job? Appears she can. What's your concern?
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Aug 29, 2013 15:27:27 GMT -8
Opinions on the Google soap opera, with respect to company/stock performance (I don't care about the scandal part)? The fact that Brin's sister-in-law runs Google's ad business seems more significant to me than Barra going to Xiaomi. Can she do the job? Appears she can. What's your concern? I have no concerns. Obviously she has been doing the job quite well. Perhaps a set of messy interpersonal relationships among the company President, his wife, her sister who runs Google Ads, a top Android executive (who just left the company), and his girlfriend will have no further effect. My question is whether investor sentiment will be affected by concerns that it may.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 29, 2013 16:24:58 GMT -8
I think I just spotted some tumbleweed blowing through here.
I don't mind us sitting above $490 this week, and looking at the open interest of tomorrow's options it looks like puts might drag us up to $495+
Only a few days out from the event invite, and only 7 trading sessions to go before the announcement itself on the 10th.
Probably only about 16 trading days before we get 1st weekend sales numbers.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Aug 29, 2013 16:56:57 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Aug 29, 2013 18:03:03 GMT -8
Quite difficult to not believe these are real, and if they are, then Apple has changed its pre-launch security stance. No specs on the 5C, but if it is meant to address CM's TD-CDMA network, what are they going to do with it next September? Could it remain, price reduced yet again? Is this Apple saying the time is near for lower price iPhones, in general?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 29, 2013 18:37:54 GMT -8
The same pre-launch security stance that got us the iPhone 4 leak? Eh.
Unless Apple actually owns the factories 100% with Apple managers, Apple buildings, Apple equipment, Apple employees, the works (not likely as of now), this stuff will happen. While Tim probably isn't thrilled with it, I'm sure he's not entirely upset about the general public and Greater China getting excited over gold iPhones and the 5C.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 29, 2013 18:46:45 GMT -8
Speaking of which, what are everyone's thoughts on launch weekend numbers?
In previous years we have only had one new model driving launch weekend sales volumes - how much different will it be this year with apple launching two models?
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Post by Deleted on Aug 29, 2013 18:49:40 GMT -8
The same pre-launch security stance that got us the iPhone 4 leak? Eh. Unless Apple actually owns the factories 100% with Apple managers, Apple buildings, Apple equipment, Apple employees, the works (not likely as of now), this stuff will happen. While Tim probably isn't thrilled with it, I'm sure he's not entirely upset about the general public and Greater China getting excited over gold iPhones and the 5C. I'm sure all the leaks over the past month or so have killed opposing high end phone sales while everyone waits to see exactly what's in the new iPhones. Apple won't have minded that at all. Sure it may have delayed some iPhone purchasers as well, but all those delays will still be buying an iPhone this quarter
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Post by Deleted on Aug 29, 2013 18:50:30 GMT -8
Not great from the perspective of Q4 iPhone Revenue, but at least it means Q1 will likely be HUGE with an extra week of heavy post launch demand (compared to what would have happened if it was a Sep 13th launch).probably at least a few million units pushed from September to October. Given that Apple usually ships the last weekend of the quarter, shipping on the 20th provides an extra week of next generation sales in FQ4. I see that as a positive. Indeed an extra week is positive to FQ4. 2 extra weeks would have been even more positive!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 29, 2013 19:00:24 GMT -8
Hold up burgess - you know what that means - SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS™.
Ahem. ;D
It's intriguing. It's the kind of setup that could, if the prices/supplies are right, easily drive volumes WELL north of 6 million. I daresay up to 8M, but that depends on Apple's mindset. Personally, I'd be fine with a more "relaxed" initial shipment (read: sales numbers) of around 6M or so. A decent balance between addressing initial demand and quality control.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 29, 2013 19:02:10 GMT -8
iPhone 5 launched Sep. 21, btw, so in terms of time there won't be much improvement. Supply is probably another matter though, and Apple's bound to have additional countries (and additional points of sale within said countries) for this year's first-stage launch.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Aug 29, 2013 19:47:13 GMT -8
Speaking of which, what are everyone's thoughts on launch weekend numbers? In previous years we have only had one new model driving launch weekend sales volumes - how much different will it be this year with apple launching two models? If we are assuming the same major markets ( Hong Kong ?) on launch weekend.....6.2 million?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 29, 2013 20:33:31 GMT -8
Hong Kong wasn't the best market for Apple last quarter...at all. Hopefully Apple's done their homework and gotten some answers as to why.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 29, 2013 21:02:12 GMT -8
Hong Kong wasn't the best market for Apple last quarter...at all. Hopefully Apple's done their homework and gotten some answers as to why. I do remember someone mentioning the answer for this query, but I can't quite remember where exactly. Something to do with Hong Kong formerly being a huge grey market for territories that Apple has now better addressed directly (mainland china and/or India?), so revenue & units kind of shifted from Hong Kong into other markets. Perhaps it also had something to do with the iPad 3 - last year it was a hot grey market item in Hong Kong, whereas this year there were no new products in high demand and all apple products are available in virtually all regions.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 29, 2013 21:29:52 GMT -8
That's not how I remember the CC - Tim said something to the effect of, "Greater China wasn't too great, actually the China geography was OK-ish but Hong Kong didn't have revenue growth and we're not yet sure why."
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Post by Deleted on Aug 29, 2013 23:17:42 GMT -8
Speaking of which, what are everyone's thoughts on launch weekend numbers? In previous years we have only had one new model driving launch weekend sales volumes - how much different will it be this year with apple launching two models? Great question. I guess it depends on whether both iPhones will be launched day/date, or will the 5C be held back until China Mobile comes on line. Before the apparent leaks on the 5C I was modeling 7 million units.
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Post by Nevyn on Aug 30, 2013 5:14:38 GMT -8
That's not how I remember the CC - Tim said something to the effect of, "Greater China wasn't too great, actually the China geography was OK-ish but Hong Kong didn't have revenue growth and we're not yet sure why." I have many contacts in HK. iPhone has lost a bit if its cool factor and cheaper Android phones are making an impact. Previously everyone wanted iPhone. Not so much anymore. This is from the people that I know. Cheaper colorful iPhone, and golden 5S may help this time.
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