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Post by Deleted on Sept 3, 2013 8:50:37 GMT -8
It's still far from certain what's in the 5S. Product leaks have no impact on consumer's willingness to buy, IMHO. +1 The only group that gets excited over purported leaks are blog posters.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 3, 2013 8:59:09 GMT -8
Blah. AAPL not showing any power right now.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 3, 2013 9:00:42 GMT -8
Gee, look at all those colors...what can it mean? I'm with Mav..the fingerprint sensor has to be there..the circles would not only be meaningless, they would be insulting without something to represent there. Those could be the new colors that the iphone 5s/c are available. The circles could represent "white". I am hoping fingerprint scanner though. The white circle is strikingly consistent with a rumor report from Clayton Morris (tech reporter), hence my comment. I'd be confused otherwise, probably.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 3, 2013 9:22:14 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Sept 3, 2013 9:52:32 GMT -8
The grey matter whirled about this weekend, and a thought I had some time ago got expanded. The thought? Has anyone ever wondered how Apple can compile 1st weekend units sold so quickly?
Apple knows how many iPhones will sell the first weekend weeks (months?) before it happens. I'll wager that the 1st weekend Press Release is already written, or at the very least could be.
Now what was my extended thought this past weekend?
First a little background. Apple's communications with the public are very carefully crafted. I don't think Apple says anything that doesn't contain some useful information (if the reader bothered to read between the lines). It occurred to me that 1st weekend sales reports could be an indicator of total units sold during the December quarter, so I looked.
Amazing. First weekend sales (as reported) averaged 10.90% of December quarter results for 2010, 2012 and 2013. 2012 and 2013 results was a more stable 10.63%. Even more amazing was the deviation from that 10.90% average. It was/is very low.
First weekend sales for 2011 was 18.48% of December quarter results, but my notes show that Apple missed unit sales expectations by quite a bit that quarter (which would explain the spike in the ratio).
So. I'm going to be watching 1st weekend results very closely. Apple reports results as "more then" the even million units.
Using the average of 2012 and 2013 results, a report of 6 Million units sold would indicate >56 Million iPhones sold during the following December quarter.
A report of 7 Million units sold would indicate >65 Million iPhones sold during the following December quarter.
A report of 8 Million units sold will have me ordering that new Tesla.
My current estimate of 61 Million units (which falls right in the middle of the above range) was derived using two other ratios I have observed from Apple's 10Qs.
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Post by jdrizzo89 on Sept 3, 2013 9:55:34 GMT -8
LOD being taken out. Sell the news starting early?
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Post by rickag on Sept 3, 2013 10:03:32 GMT -8
The grey matter whirled about this weekend, and a thought I had some time ago got expanded. The thought? Has anyone ever wondered how Apple can compile 1st weekend units sold so quickly? Apple knows how many iPhones will sell the first weekend weeks (months?) before it happens. I'll wager that the 1st weekend Press Release is already written, or at the very least could be. Now what was my extended thought this past weekend? First a little background. Apple's communications with the public are very carefully crafted. I don't think Apple says anything that doesn't contain some useful information (if the reader bothered to read between the lines). It occurred to me that 1st weekend sales reports could be an indicator of total units sold during the December quarter, so I looked. Amazing. First weekend sales (as reported) averaged 10.90% of December quarter results for 2010, 2012 and 2013. 2012 and 2013 results was a more stable 10.63%. Even more amazing was the deviation from that 10.90% average. It was/is very low. First weekend sales for 2011 was 18.48% of December quarter results, but my notes show that Apple missed unit sales expectations by quite a bit that quarter (which would explain the spike in the ratio). So. I'm going to be watching 1st weekend results very closely. Apple reports results as "more then" the even million units. Using the average of 2012 and 2013 results, a report of 6 Million units sold would indicate >56 Million iPhones sold during the following December quarter. A report of 7 Million units sold would indicate >65 Million iPhones sold during the following December quarter. A report of 8 Million units sold will have me ordering that new Tesla. My current estimate of 61 Million units (which falls right in the middle of the above range) was derived using two other ratios I have observed from Apple's 10Qs. . Thanks for the research. Fascinating correlation.
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Post by lance on Sept 3, 2013 10:03:55 GMT -8
20 day MA watch these levels if broken big hole below. Hopefully we hold.
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Post by rob_london on Sept 3, 2013 10:11:14 GMT -8
The grey matter whirled about this weekend, and a thought I had some time ago got expanded. The thought? Has anyone ever wondered how Apple can compile 1st weekend units sold so quickly? Apple knows how many iPhones will sell the first weekend weeks (months?) before it happens. I'll wager that the 1st weekend Press Release is already written, or at the very least could be. Now what was my extended thought this past weekend? First a little background. Apple's communications with the public are very carefully crafted. I don't think Apple says anything that doesn't contain some useful information (if the reader bothered to read between the lines). It occurred to me that 1st weekend sales reports could be an indicator of total units sold during the December quarter, so I looked. Amazing. First weekend sales (as reported) averaged 10.90% of December quarter results for 2010, 2012 and 2013. 2012 and 2013 results was a more stable 10.63%. Even more amazing was the deviation from that 10.90% average. It was/is very low. First weekend sales for 2011 was 18.48% of December quarter results, but my notes show that Apple missed unit sales expectations by quite a bit that quarter (which would explain the spike in the ratio). So. I'm going to be watching 1st weekend results very closely. Apple reports results as "more then" the even million units. Using the average of 2012 and 2013 results, a report of 6 Million units sold would indicate >56 Million iPhones sold during the following December quarter. A report of 7 Million units sold would indicate >65 Million iPhones sold during the following December quarter. A report of 8 Million units sold will have me ordering that new Tesla. My current estimate of 61 Million units (which falls right in the middle of the above range) was derived using two other ratios I have observed from Apple's 10Qs. . Thanks for the research. Fascinating correlation. +1
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 3, 2013 10:14:03 GMT -8
20 day MA watch these levels if broken big hole below. Hopefully we hold. What are you talking about? It's not as simple as SMA 20 >> SMA 50. Power day (Icahn tweet) not equal to some 25-point unfilled gap.
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Post by rob_london on Sept 3, 2013 10:26:36 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Sept 3, 2013 10:31:31 GMT -8
If my post above has some validity, then we may see a September 13 launch. 1.2 Million units shipped for 5 days equates to >6 Million units sold during first weekend.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 3, 2013 10:34:40 GMT -8
You won't see a Sep. 13 launch. iOS 7 has to be released to the public first, and there needs to be enough time for Apple to take up pre-orders around the world. Also, product ramp-up, server load considerations, etc.
6M would be by minimum target for iPhone launch weekend. Maybe more like 7M depending on where and how Apple launches.
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Post by tuffett on Sept 3, 2013 10:47:01 GMT -8
$300 unsubsidized would absolutely destroy the competition. The question is would it also cannibalize the 5S too much?
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Post by artman1033 on Sept 3, 2013 10:57:45 GMT -8
OTOH: it appears there WILL be more trouble in the Middle East.
PERHAPS on the day the new iPhones are announced.
Timing like this happened with the iPod in 2001.
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Post by rob_london on Sept 3, 2013 10:59:51 GMT -8
Looking forward to the unveiling of the Samsung 'smartwatch' tomorrow....
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Post by Deleted on Sept 3, 2013 11:09:53 GMT -8
Lots of problems with Munster's analysis, especially as it pertains to unlocked pricing in 'foreign' markets. The price differentials in each country mentioned almost perfectly matches the localized national sales tax of the host Country. That and there's absolutely no reason to offer a low cost iPhone for under US$400.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 3, 2013 11:11:09 GMT -8
$300 unsubsidized would absolutely destroy the competition. The question is would it also cannibalize the 5S too much? Yes and Yes.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 3, 2013 11:13:43 GMT -8
$300 unsubsidized would absolutely destroy the competition. The question is would it also cannibalize the 5S too much? No (irrelevant anyway, because it would be by design).
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Post by Deleted on Sept 3, 2013 11:20:29 GMT -8
6M would be by minimum target for iPhone launch weekend. Maybe more like 7M depending on where and how Apple launches. My original first weekend estimate was upwards of 8 million, but that was before my analysis of first weekend sales/December results. I'm now leaning very hard to an announcement of 7 Million units (extrapolation = 65 million units during December quarter).
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Post by cbingle on Sept 3, 2013 11:25:04 GMT -8
Gene Munster gets more stupid every day. It amazes me the majority of analyst ignorance and incompetence. 80-20 rule applies to all fields of work. Unfortunately, the 80% group continues to grow in numbers and percent. May be closer to 90-10 in today's society.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 3, 2013 11:59:44 GMT -8
What a blah day for our stock today. Frankly, I expected better...
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Post by Deleted on Sept 3, 2013 12:19:37 GMT -8
Up 9.26 with no invite...does it pop us over 500? Perhaps Apple couldn't be bothered to have an official unveiling, now so much has apparently been leaked (despite 'doubling down on secrecy') Don't forget new software - that requires no supply chain so leaks are usually non-existent for new apps.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 3, 2013 12:20:39 GMT -8
What a blah day for our stock today. Frankly, I expected better... It was a very heavy news day, the invite got lost in the Syria & Microsoft/Nokia news. I think apple should have delayed the invite until later in the day or tomorrow.
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Post by rickag on Sept 3, 2013 12:35:54 GMT -8
I don't see a $300 iPhone in the cards this go around. If as almost everyone claims, the iPhone 5C has the electronics inside that an iPhone 5 currently has I don't imagine the plastic case can reduce the cost that far down, even with a 15% gross margin. I'd be happy with a price between $350 - $400, but expect $450.
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Post by osx10 on Sept 3, 2013 12:48:17 GMT -8
Just a thought... TC talked about driving more traffic to the Apple stores.
What if they stagger the iphone rollout and make it available at the Apple store and apple.com on say 9-13 and do general release on 9-20?
Could that be why the 1.2 million are already headed here?
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Post by Deleted on Sept 3, 2013 13:30:49 GMT -8
Just a thought... TC talked about driving more traffic to the Apple stores. What if they stagger the iphone rollout and make it available at the Apple store and apple.com on say 9-13 and do general release on 9-20? Could that be why the 1.2 million are already headed here? Excellent thought.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 3, 2013 13:46:05 GMT -8
Just a thought... TC talked about driving more traffic to the Apple stores. What if they stagger the iphone rollout and make it available at the Apple store and apple.com on say 9-13 and do general release on 9-20? Could that be why the 1.2 million are already headed here? Excellent thought. Thinking more about that, what if the only "plan" offered was unsubsidized? What do the subsidizing carriers do to attract those buyers? And, of course, if Apple rolls out the next iPhone in that manner, its going to screw up 1st weekend sales as a forecasting model.
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Post by nathanstevens on Sept 3, 2013 14:04:58 GMT -8
Just a thought... TC talked about driving more traffic to the Apple stores. What if they stagger the iphone rollout and make it available at the Apple store and apple.com on say 9-13 and do general release on 9-20? Could that be why the 1.2 million are already headed here? I was thinking something along these lines too.
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Post by rickag on Sept 3, 2013 14:48:14 GMT -8
Just a thought... TC talked about driving more traffic to the Apple stores. What if they stagger the iphone rollout and make it available at the Apple store and apple.com on say 9-13 and do general release on 9-20? Could that be why the 1.2 million are already headed here? Could be, however, if I were running a carrier and signed a deal to sell a certain number of iPhones I think the contract I signed would prohibit Apple from doing just that.
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