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Post by rob_london on Sept 5, 2013 23:39:37 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 6, 2013 0:24:57 GMT -8
Apple buys billions in prepaid supply contracts. There's reports that Apple buys the production capacity that it then uses to secure the supply!
It might make a brief mention in Tim's remarks, but honestly, Apple is such a ginormous consumer of memory, it not only gets the best quality at the best price, it secures massive quantities of it well in advance. Extended shortages will hurt everyone, but Apple not nearly as much unless there's huge shortages.
I'd also point out this is DRAM, not flash memory. In either case Apple has multi-sourced.
Woe to anyone who has to buy "spot pricing".
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 6, 2013 1:36:24 GMT -8
Today is the last day of the current Jewish holiday that runs from September 4th - 6th, so maybe another low volume day of trading?
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Post by prazan on Sept 6, 2013 4:14:25 GMT -8
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Post by leonb on Sept 6, 2013 5:10:16 GMT -8
Today is the last day of the current Jewish holiday that runs from September 4th - 6th, so maybe another low volume day of trading? Jewish New Year was Weds to Thurs - don't see why trading today would be affected.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 6, 2013 5:21:03 GMT -8
Today is the last day of the current Jewish holiday that runs from September 4th - 6th, so maybe another low volume day of trading? Jewish New Year was Weds to Thurs - don't see why trading today would be affected. I heard someone mention jewish holidays on Cnbc today, so did a google search which gave me this: "Rosh Hashanah Rosh Hashanah is the Jewish New Year. It is the anniversary of the creation of Adam and Eve, and a day of judgement and coronation of G‑d as king. No work is permitted. The Month of Elul - August 7 - September 4, 2013 Rosh Hashanah - September 4 - 6, 2013" Apologies if I caused offence, blame google
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Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
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Post by Since84 on Sept 6, 2013 5:41:17 GMT -8
And Max Pain is still at $495...
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Post by playultimate on Sept 6, 2013 5:45:56 GMT -8
And Max Pain is still at $495... yep.
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Post by appledoc on Sept 6, 2013 6:06:09 GMT -8
Weakness. Ugh. Still like the next few weeks.
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Post by macwire on Sept 6, 2013 6:07:00 GMT -8
Nice market head fake. Jesus
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Post by prazan on Sept 6, 2013 6:13:57 GMT -8
Putin said Russia would come to Syria's aid if attacked. So the market tanked. He didn't specify, as far as I know, what the aid would entail.
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Post by redinaustin on Sept 6, 2013 6:15:45 GMT -8
Jewish New Year was Weds to Thurs - don't see why trading today would be affected. I heard someone mention jewish holidays on Cnbc today, so did a google search which gave me this: "Rosh Hashanah Rosh Hashanah is the Jewish New Year. It is the anniversary of the creation of Adam and Eve, and a day of judgement and coronation of G‑d as king. No work is permitted. The Month of Elul - August 7 - September 4, 2013 Rosh Hashanah - September 4 - 6, 2013" Apologies if I caused offence, blame google Jewish New Year started Wed at sundown and ends tonight at sundown. Not all observe the second day.
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Post by lance on Sept 6, 2013 6:33:45 GMT -8
For 8 straight sessions AAPL has battled to stay above the 20 MA and not lose the uptrend.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Sept 6, 2013 6:44:59 GMT -8
AAPL closed at 498.50 on August 13. With all the positive stories over the past two weeks, nada. If this is "buy the rumor," then what the heck is "sell the news" going to look like on September 10?
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Post by leonb on Sept 6, 2013 6:47:44 GMT -8
I heard someone mention jewish holidays on Cnbc today, so did a google search which gave me this: "Rosh Hashanah Rosh Hashanah is the Jewish New Year. It is the anniversary of the creation of Adam and Eve, and a day of judgement and coronation of G‑d as king. No work is permitted. The Month of Elul - August 7 - September 4, 2013 Rosh Hashanah - September 4 - 6, 2013" Apologies if I caused offence, blame google Jewish New Year started Wed at sundown and ends tonight at sundown. Not all observe the second day. Yes, I stand corrected. Neither family nor friends bother with the second day, so it was off my radar, but it remains a fact (for the more observant).
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bud777
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Post by bud777 on Sept 6, 2013 7:10:25 GMT -8
AAPL closed at 498.50 on August 13. With all the positive stories over the past two weeks, nada. If this is "buy the rumor," then what the heck is "sell the news" going to look like on September 10? I agree. I am very nervous about the next few months. The more I learn about the market, the more I realize that traders, not investors determine price. And traders act on momentum. We saw that clearly over the past month when Icahn moved the stock 50 points, but the good news about new products and China Mobile is ignored. I believe that I underestimated the effect that the loss of Steve Jobs would have. I felt and still feel that the company is as innovative and well run as ever, possibly even more so. But the story has changed. The press is no longer fawning over the charismatic leader and the negative spin has had its toll. Profits, products, dividends, stock buybacks...all these rational reasons are irrelevant to someone who is concerned only with momentum. If all you can see is the first derivative of a function, the constant term does not affect your decisions. I am prepared to see September 10 come and go without any reaction in the stock. I think we could easily drift back to the low 400's. Iterative improvement, no matter how stunning does not seem to have the power to move the stock. I think it will take a "new product category" with the potential additional income of the iPad to really get things going again. IMHO, apple deserves a P/E in the mid 20's but I do not expect to see it for a long time if ever. Cognitive dissonance is a powerful force. Watching the stock languish while the market moves does not make sense from most perspectives. It is what drives most of our posts here. I think I have to just let it go. It is what it is. There. I feel better
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Post by Lstream on Sept 6, 2013 7:32:09 GMT -8
AAPL closed at 498.50 on August 13. With all the positive stories over the past two weeks, nada. If this is "buy the rumor," then what the heck is "sell the news" going to look like on September 10? I have felt for a long time that Apple is no longer a rumour or catalyst-driven stock. It is now a performance-based stock. New product releases and especially page-hit-driven fabrications and rumours about them are meaningless without sales and earnings improvement. I think that is the Wall Street view of Apple. Boring yes, but I think it is a good thing.
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bud777
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Post by bud777 on Sept 6, 2013 8:29:04 GMT -8
AAPL closed at 498.50 on August 13. With all the positive stories over the past two weeks, nada. If this is "buy the rumor," then what the heck is "sell the news" going to look like on September 10? I have felt for a long time that Apple is no longer a rumour or catalyst-driven stock. It is now a performance-based stock. New product releases and especially page-hit-driven fabrications and rumours about them are meaningless without sales and earnings improvement. I think that is the Wall Street view of Apple. Boring yes, but I think it is a good thing. I am not sure if even sales or earnings are relevant. Doesn't the low P/E belie that idea? Maybe I am too pessimistic, but i think that the traders are not going to care about a bump in earnings. The only thing I see moving the stock back up to 700 is a 10-1 split that would bring in a lot of retail investor and create momentum. I know it is irrational, but that is the point.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Sept 6, 2013 8:33:10 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 6, 2013 8:35:01 GMT -8
Weakness. Ugh. Still like the next few weeks. Weakness? Nice bounce at 490. There have been buy points from 388 in retrospect. Not easy to find but they were there. I think we have a similar situation now. Sentiment is hanging in there and the second half story is about to begin. Assume China sales begin much earlier this year. Tell me with a straight face that doesn't count for something even without China Mobile (and note the reports on NTT DoCoMo) That said, I bought in some at high 490s. Waiting before I consider adding more.
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Post by tuffett on Sept 6, 2013 8:37:41 GMT -8
A low P/E is somewhat justified because of margin concerns and the fact that 2013 has been a negative growth year. If Apple returns to consistent earnings growth I don't see why the P/E wouldn't correspondingly increase.
Apple will always have more pressure to perform and be undervalued by the market but I don't think this valuation is as good as it gets. It will improve if Apple's results show good performance and growth.
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Post by Lstream on Sept 6, 2013 8:42:37 GMT -8
I am not sure if even sales or earnings are relevant. Doesn't the low P/E belie that idea? Maybe I am too pessimistic, but i think that the traders are not going to care about a bump in earnings. The only thing I see moving the stock back up to 700 is a 10-1 split that would bring in a lot of retail investor and create momentum. I know it is irrational, but that is the point. I think shrinking earnings and a rapid transition to slow sales growth helps explain the low PE. This company has been a poor performer for the past year or so. So they deserve the "show me" status. I don't see the price performance as irrational at all. And I don't think a stock split changes anything.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 6, 2013 9:08:45 GMT -8
Margins went way down with poor communication/explanation. Not quite the same as "poor performer". Granted iPhone 5 is not a growth monster though fiscal Q1/Q3 were OK enough. Now Apple gets a chance to justify/build on its improved sentiment (from where it was a couple months ago anyway)
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Post by dreamRaj on Sept 6, 2013 9:25:25 GMT -8
Added 3 more calls to my Jan 2015 500 position at $62 each.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 6, 2013 9:28:15 GMT -8
There is no explanation for WS -- don't put it on Apple, not while AMZN and GOOG are in orbit. Now let the lines start for Sept. 20th, when the rumored new iPhones are rumored to become first available. Unbelievable they're starting this early. That's consumer sentiment, never mind the talking heads who look the other way. bgr.com/2013/09/06/iphone-5s-5c-launch-lines/
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 6, 2013 9:30:49 GMT -8
Margins went way down with poor communication/explanation. Not quite the same as "poor performer". Granted iPhone 5 is not a growth monster though fiscal Q1/Q3 were OK enough. Now Apple gets a chance to justify/build on its improved sentiment (from where it was a couple months ago anyway) The FACT of lower margins from its messy divorce with Samsung probably had more to do with it than communication, as Tim would have simply given WS yet another reason to sink AAPL earlier than it did. Is WS punishing AAPL for lack of communication or low margins? Ok, yeah, both.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 6, 2013 9:32:43 GMT -8
Nah. The margin drop has nothing to do with that I think
NEXT WEEK is the clearest expression of why if you ask me. Apple's going for share, and the timing is right.
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Post by prazan on Sept 6, 2013 9:46:11 GMT -8
Going for market share? Certainly. But I suspect their motive is to bring Apple products to tens of millions of people who have until now been priced out of the experience. Don't condemn those who can't afford $650 for an unsubsidized phone to a crappy Android existence.
Yes, I've drunk the Kool Aid. And like it.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 6, 2013 9:57:27 GMT -8
There is no explanation for WS -- don't put it on Apple, not while AMZN and GOOG are in orbit. Now let the lines start for Sept. 20th, when the rumored new iPhones are rumored to become first available. Unbelievable they're starting this early. That's consumer sentiment, never mind the talking heads who look the other way. bgr.com/2013/09/06/iphone-5s-5c-launch-lines/The Apple Store near the University of Washington in Seattle is already planning to mark out where the lines need to be. Due to some landscaping changes they can't form them as they did in past launches. The Manager says interest in "when to form the line" is high among the Apple fanatics...
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Post by firestorm on Sept 6, 2013 10:04:41 GMT -8
It would be nice to see the line snake around the parking lot and past the Microsoft store.
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