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Post by qualitywte on Sept 8, 2013 11:10:08 GMT -8
Nope. They'll need to make a good case for it. It's like my blog says - clear-eyed commentary without pretense (or claim of expertise). I try to call it like I see it. Right now, I can't see it and neither can anyone else. There's receiving payments on a massive scale, and then there's being an issuer. Let Amazon play eBank or something first. If anything, _that's_ classic Apple playbook. Learn carefully from the failures of others, then try to get at the basic need on the first try. Is an Amazon, Google, etc. walking down this "card issuer" path? Google is farthest along the somewhat-related mobile payments path, and it STILL recommends tapping your HugePhone against a payment terminal. You mean this is not your blog?....
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 8, 2013 11:12:43 GMT -8
Ha ha.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 8, 2013 11:14:10 GMT -8
Mercel, no one said anything about continued commitment. You'll be remembered if you're right. I'll host your prediction if you like, but then again I'm not sure you've ever visited. Mostly technicals on the blog. ;D I did. You have a gift for writing Mav and am glad you started one. If your focus moves off of TA, let me know.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 8, 2013 11:16:06 GMT -8
It won't really, but I do talk about earnings around earnings time and strategy when there's stuff to write about. Which is looking like mostly only four months outta the year?! I find Twitter great for the more "casual" commentary (read: mostly not technicals). Not many followers, but like that'll stop me!
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Post by rickag on Sept 8, 2013 11:26:01 GMT -8
OK. I'm laughing now. (Still don't get the humor) I took the golden ratio and misapplied it to come up with a huge # of iPhones sold, and added my tongue in cheek comment about my favorite number. The golden ratio seems on some level to appear throughout nature and is partially the basis for Fibinacci levels used in technical analysis. By the way, I don't plan on giving up my day job to become a stand up comedian.
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Post by appledoc on Sept 8, 2013 11:35:55 GMT -8
I have high expectations for this week. From the company and the stock. Onslaught of major stories in AH Friday should bode well for tomorrow.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 8, 2013 11:47:15 GMT -8
If volatility means substantial gains followed by profit taking then I would agree. However, the prospects for Jaunary and April Earnings, IMO, are so strong that I think profit taking will not cause outsized dips.
October Earnings and Guidance, again IMO, will forecast Revenue of $61 Billion to $65 Billion (a minimum YoY growth rate of 39+%).
Then, taking Red's lead into FQ2, if Apple follows its 8 year historical Revenue change from FQ1, FQ2 will report another 38% YoY gain, generating a YoY EPS gain of ~67%.
The catalyst for these gains have more to do with historical December quarter growth rates, than it does actual products announced/markets. Remember, all prior December quarters had product refreshes.
This does not mean that iOS7, rumored iPhone 5S/5C, or expansion of distribution to China Mobile and/or DoCoMo will not have a positive impact. To the contrary, I think Tuesday's announcements (if they are as rumored) will reinforce the likelihood that Apple (and by extension AAPL) will perform better than I have suggested above.
Volatility will be to the upside after Tuesday, first weekend sales report (a strong harbinger of December quarter unit sales) and, more importantly, October Earnings/Conference Call (Guidance for December quarter).
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Post by Deleted on Sept 8, 2013 12:48:26 GMT -8
Seriously, we have these catalysts to move the stock price: 1. Tuesday's event 2. First weekend sales 3. Launch date and lines 4. iPad (in Oct.) 5. FQ4 earnings and guidance (in October) 6. New Apple bond offering? 7. Carl Icahn 8. Analyst price target upgrades Exposure to macro events (Fed and Syria) will move the broader market but always hard to predict. Most excellent summary. I don't think the US is going to get more involved in Syria than to provide "safety zone" air cover. Syria sits astride the only viable land route for a natural gas pipeline from Saudi Arabia and Qatar to Europe (via Turkey). This is important to Europe as currently its #1 supplier of natural gas is Russia. Not surprisingly, Russia is the only backer of the Assad regime, which is refusing access to a natural gas pipeline route through Syria. The beneficiaries of regime change in Syria are Saudi Arabia and Qatar (world's 2nd and 3rd largest suppliers of natural gas) and Europe. The losers, besides the Assad family, is - Russia. The US has no real economic interests to further and/or protect with a Syrian regime change. Any US intervention will be to mollify human rights activists in the US, ergo air cover only.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 8, 2013 14:54:46 GMT -8
I got it and laughed out loud. We can hope, Rickag! I also got your satire of the Spock-like exactitude some analysts try to profess. Any predictions of the 5C/5S killer combo leading to massive Q1 iPhone unit shipments need to be tempered by the very likely fall in ASP. Except an enormous number of those 5C sales will be to first-time purchasers, who would not have bought a full priced iPhone (little, if any, cannibalization). Plus, no way to know margins of the 5C - could be lower or higher than a regular iPhone.
I'd like this post to serve as an example to some here that one can express two or more thoughts in a single post, rather than 57 consecutive ones.
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Post by Luckychoices on Sept 8, 2013 16:28:44 GMT -8
. I'd like this post to serve as an example to some here that one can express two or more thoughts in a single post, rather than 57 consecutive ones. +1
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Post by Deleted on Sept 8, 2013 17:43:29 GMT -8
Plus, no way to know margins of the 5C - could be lower or higher than a regular iPhone. Doesn't matter as long as its => GM% of the 4S.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 8, 2013 17:45:10 GMT -8
Which it certainly will not. Not even sure the 5S will have 4S margins, unless there's a $499 128GB subsidized model ($499 borders on absurd IMHO, I'm not sure who'd buy those) AND Apple sells a ton of 'em.
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Post by jdrizzo89 on Sept 8, 2013 18:58:39 GMT -8
Random smart watch thought: FaceTime talks from smart watch? Futuristic possibilities ..
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 8, 2013 19:22:06 GMT -8
Needs bigger screen, IMMENSELY more battery life. I thought I heard FaceTime call battery life in the 3-4 hour range for iPhone 4. Can't have improved much with HD, and shrink that all down to a wearable?
I don't care if Apple takes 3-5 yrs to let the technology come to it. Smart watches won't even have netbook-like initial success if you ask me.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 8, 2013 20:40:18 GMT -8
Plus, no way to know margins of the 5C - could be lower or higher than a regular iPhone. Doesn't matter as long as its => GM% of the 4S. I dunno Gregg, are we really 100% sure that the 5C is meant to replace the "old and busted, discounted" iPhone, at least in the first world? Could we not see the now-discounted 5 here in the US and EU, as Apple typically does when new models are announced? The 5's cost is finally coming down, margins going up, and they just dump it after a mere 1 year?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 8, 2013 20:43:13 GMT -8
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