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Post by moltenfire on Sept 8, 2013 22:44:18 GMT -8
A new week, the day before an iPhone event, and unfortunately also a day before an Obama speech on Syria. Let's hope the macro geopolitical issues don't cast a shadow on our big events this fall.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 8, 2013 23:23:35 GMT -8
Futures aren't bothered. Nor should you be - yet.
Whatever one's feelings on the Syria situation and how one's "favorite" political party is handling it - "whip counts" in Congress and worldwide sentiment appear to be against intervention at this point.
And whatever your feelings may be on _that_, the markets certainly seem happier with reduced intervention risk. Obviously it's a fluid, unpredictable situation.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 9, 2013 0:07:52 GMT -8
Early PM looking good at $505.00.
I agree there is a high chance that Syria will dominate the news cycle on Tuesday, with Obama doing the grand tour of all the major Networks AND addressing congress.
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Post by rob_london on Sept 9, 2013 0:53:57 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Sept 9, 2013 1:49:44 GMT -8
I don't believe this - apparently Citi has issued a note to clients this morning on AAPL in which it describes the new iPhones as "not innovative". That's quite an amazing call considering the announcement hasn't happened yet, and no specs, exclusive software implementations or pricing has yet to be confirmed. Amazing what BS Wall Street is able to generate these days. ----------------------- Its a good piece, but I disagree with his prediction on the $99 price point. I also don't know why everyone thinks apple has to be so rigid in its price structure. The iPhone 5C can be $450 or more in the US, and also sell for 10% or more less in emerging markets. This is exactly what happens already with the iPhone 4. And on the other end of the scale, Apple prices its premium iPhone far higher in a lot of markets internationally than it does in the USA.
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aapldamus
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Post by aapldamus on Sept 9, 2013 1:55:05 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Sept 9, 2013 3:32:00 GMT -8
Sony just beat Apple to the punch with a cheap $95 set top box with gaming capabilities. www.theverge.com/2013/9/9/4710080/sony-ps-vita-tvIf Sony can do this for $95 then apple should be able to do the same level of hardware for $99 with the Apple TV set top box. Like the Sony product, they can offer it with a controller for $50 more. Sony seems to be getting some of its mojo back - its smartphones are very popular in Japan, its broadening out to iOS & Android accessories in the form of their new smartphone camera addons, its leaving Microsoft in the dust with its console this generation, and now its come out with this low end $95 gaming device which is a very interesting strategy considering its about to also launch its $400 console. Something has changed at Sony recently, and for the better.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Sept 9, 2013 4:41:59 GMT -8
Nice piece. The value of the fingerprint scanner as the key S/C differentiator as well as a tool for corporate IT deployment is insightful.
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Post by prazan on Sept 9, 2013 6:12:03 GMT -8
Marc Sperling of T3 Live (Redler's group) has made Apple his pick of the week. Like all the traders at T3, Sperling is a technicals guy. I can't link, because it's a newsletter, but here are a few snippets.
The Trade Idea: Apple (AAPL) Long Action Price: 1) $502.50 (*gapping above this morning) 2) $514 Target Range: $530-540 Stop-Loss Level: $490
Why I Like Apple (AAPL) Long Here: 1) Strong bounce from late-June lows ...After a nearly year-long malaise, AAPL has been able to recapture its previous magic. 2) Bull flag to consolidate recent gains When a stock starts to rally after a long period of weakness, you like to see it move step-by-step rather than try to reclaim all its losses at once. Since earnings AAPL has seen a methodical move higher with rest along the way, allowing for potential tactical entries. Since making pivot highs on August 19th AAPL has been forming a slight descending channel/bull flag that could set the stage for higher prices. The rest has allowed the short-term moving averages to play catch-up. 3) Potential catalysts with back-to-back product events this week
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 9, 2013 6:52:47 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Sept 9, 2013 7:33:55 GMT -8
Interesting that Apple HAS kept prying eyes away from the front of the 5C (blurry cam doesn't count). I HOPE it looks like this!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 9, 2013 7:34:06 GMT -8
Whatever one's feelings on the Syria situation and how one's "favorite" political party is handling it - "whip counts" in Congress and worldwide sentiment appear to be against intervention at this point. If the US intervenes, it will be air cover only, as I posted yesterday. I'm up substantially on my Sept Week 2 and Sept Spreads (both $485/$490), is anyone else holding through tomorrow?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 9, 2013 7:36:54 GMT -8
I don't believe this - apparently Citi has issued a note to clients this morning on AAPL in which it describes the new iPhones as "not innovative". That's quite an amazing call considering the announcement hasn't happened yet, and no specs, exclusive software implementations or pricing has yet to be confirmed. Amazing what BS Wall Street is able to generate these days. Probably Glen Yeung at Citi, the genius who predicted 17M iPhones in the June. Zabitsky has a new BFF.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 9, 2013 7:49:09 GMT -8
Client notes must be such fun. Write to a largely un-savvy, limited audience, get quoted by journalists now and then, but low accountability overall.
My blog covers other topics but analyst debunking could be "fun" for someone to do.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 9, 2013 7:49:51 GMT -8
I am so tired of this bullshit When Apple introduces the latest/greatest, it moves the most recent model down the price chart, effectively creating multiple price points. There is nothing in price strategy that says you must create multiple models, differentiated by capability/price, EACH YEAR. Apple has chosen a strategy that works very well (more iPhone 4 and iPhone 4S sold during March quarter than were Samsung Galaxy S4). Which reminds me, yesterday I heard a commercial (Car Toys) on the radio for Galaxy S4 at $99. Samsung's multiple models aren't doing so well supporting the high end.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 9, 2013 8:04:44 GMT -8
The 50 SMA is poised to cross the 200 SMA. It could happen this week.
The 100 SMA could cross the 200 SMA by the end of the month.
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Post by tuffett on Sept 9, 2013 8:21:01 GMT -8
Gregg, if Apple's strategy is doing as well as you claim they wouldn't be unveiling the 5C tomorrow, would they?
It's doing great in the USA, not so much in the rest of the world. China revenues were down YoY. Germany market share is anemic. There is a definite reason for this strategy shift.
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Post by sponge on Sept 9, 2013 8:23:30 GMT -8
The 50 SMA is poised to cross the 200 SMA. It could happen this week. The 100 SMA could cross the 200 SMA by the end of the month. What are those numbers? Lots of chatter about Golden Cross. Last time that was passed the stock went up over 100% in 3 years. Icahn in 10 min on CNBC. Young is a moron. Will be proven so when he is forced to upgrade in two months and missed a 75 point move.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 9, 2013 8:25:12 GMT -8
tuffett, it's not really a strategy shift. It's more like the time was now with the technology they had. I think the 5C may have been planned some time ago. And now, Apple finally has the technology to meet the need (A6 platform, iOS 7), hence the "new" product.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 9, 2013 8:26:43 GMT -8
Interesting that Apple HAS kept prying eyes away from the front of the 5C (blurry cam doesn't count). I HOPE it looks like this! Shiny/chamfered display surround? Would be nice, but it's not a low-cost kinda thing to do, eh?
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Post by Deleted on Sept 9, 2013 8:42:10 GMT -8
Gregg, if Apple's strategy is doing as well as you claim they wouldn't be unveiling the 5C tomorrow, would they? It's doing great in the USA, not so much in the rest of the world. China revenues were down YoY. Germany market share is anemic. There is a definite reason for this strategy shift. After accepting that the 5C is probably real, I have always felt that the designation and redesign was necessary to differentiate the iPhone 4S from a 4S equipped with Qualcom's world chip (supports China Mobile's TD-SCDMA) and the 9 pin connector. I do not believe the purpose of the 5C is to address a "pricing failure" on the low end. If you'll remember, the iPhone 4 and iPhone 4S recently outsold the Samsung S4, which is currently being offered by some distributors at $99. Resale value on older iPhones has gone up, while resale values on older Samsungs has gone down. Price is an issue, but only if you are scraping the bottom of the barrel. Its amazing that the low price advocates do not extend their collective iPhone argument to Infiniti, Lexus, Mercedes or BMW. None of those manufacturers are trying to compete with Chevrolet, Nissan, Citroen or Fiat.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 9, 2013 8:51:31 GMT -8
I suspect you won't be happy with any $0 iPhone 5C, then. That is NOT a strategy that's particularly good to margins, unless Apple has pulled off cost-control miracles with the A6 platform lately. Apple's "scrimping" on RAM and flash memory and that doesn't seem to "help" as iPhone 5 and even iPad mini show.
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Post by tuffett on Sept 9, 2013 8:54:12 GMT -8
Mav, perhaps strategy shift is the wrong word. I guess we don't know how long this has been planned for. Nonetheless, it will be a big change to the iPhone product lineup and it's being done for a reason. I doubt Apple knew far ahead of time that 2013 would be such a poor year - if they did they should have warned investors. If I had to guess is say the 5C was a relatively recent decision made as a response to the global shift in market dynamics over the past year and a bit.
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Post by tuffett on Sept 9, 2013 9:05:25 GMT -8
Gregg, if Apple's strategy is doing as well as you claim they wouldn't be unveiling the 5C tomorrow, would they? It's doing great in the USA, not so much in the rest of the world. China revenues were down YoY. Germany market share is anemic. There is a definite reason for this strategy shift. After accepting that the 5C is probably real, I have always felt that the designation and redesign was necessary to differentiate the iPhone 4S from a 4S equipped with Qualcom's world chip (supports China Mobile's TD-SCDMA) and the 9 pin connector. I do not believe the purpose of the 5C is to address a "pricing failure" on the low end. If you'll remember, the iPhone 4 and iPhone 4S recently outsold the Samsung S4, which is currently being offered by some distributors at $99. Resale value on older iPhones has gone up, while resale values on older Samsungs has gone down. Price is an issue, but only if you are scraping the bottom of the barrel. Its amazing that the low price advocates do not extend their collective iPhone argument to Infiniti, Lexus, Mercedes or BMW. None of those manufacturers are trying to compete with Chevrolet, Nissan, Citroen or Fiat. All of the companies you mention have product offerings that target the lower end of luxury/upper end of middle class segment. And guess what? They aren't just older models of their existing cars. They are designed specifically for the target market - exactly as Apple is about to do. It's actually a great analogy for a targeted lower-end iPhone. Remember, lower-end does not mean low-end. Nobody reasonable, myself included is asking Apple to put out a $99 or even $199 unsubsidized phone. So don't argue that point, because nobody here is making it.
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Post by jdubuc on Sept 9, 2013 10:04:37 GMT -8
All of the companies you mention have product offerings that target the lower end of luxury/upper end of middle class segment. And guess what? They aren't just older models of their existing cars. They are designed specifically for the target market - exactly as Apple is about to do. It's actually a great analogy for a targeted lower-end iPhone. Remember, lower-end does not mean low-end. Nobody reasonable, myself included is asking Apple to put out a $99 or even $199 unsubsidized phone. So don't argue that point, because nobody here is making it. Correct -- BMW releases a new 3-series, 5-series and 7-series sedan each year, as opposed to manufacturing and offering 2012, 2013 and 2014 5-series sedans at 3 different price points. I think the analogy is pertinent, and 5C is at least the beginning of a shift toward this segmentation strategy. I do think you're right though Gregg that the 5C is happening now for a variety of reasons, including the desire to unify the connector, add support for China Mobile, etc. If it launches at the same $450 (unsubsidized) price point as today's iPhone 4, it would indicate to me that Apple is happy with their current pricing strategy.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 9, 2013 10:06:32 GMT -8
After accepting that the 5C is probably real, I have always felt that the designation and redesign was necessary to differentiate the iPhone 4S from a 4S equipped with Qualcom's world chip (supports China Mobile's TD-SCDMA) and the 9 pin connector. I do not believe the purpose of the 5C is to address a "pricing failure" on the low end. If you'll remember, the iPhone 4 and iPhone 4S recently outsold the Samsung S4, which is currently being offered by some distributors at $99. Resale value on older iPhones has gone up, while resale values on older Samsungs has gone down. Price is an issue, but only if you are scraping the bottom of the barrel. Its amazing that the low price advocates do not extend their collective iPhone argument to Infiniti, Lexus, Mercedes or BMW. None of those manufacturers are trying to compete with Chevrolet, Nissan, Citroen or Fiat. All of the companies you mention have product offerings that target the lower end of luxury/upper end of middle class segment. And guess what? They aren't just older models of their existing cars. They are designed specifically for the target market - exactly as Apple is about to do. It's actually a great analogy for a targeted lower-end iPhone. Remember, lower-end does not mean low-end. Nobody reasonable, myself included is asking Apple to put out a $99 or even $199 unsubsidized phone. So don't argue that point, because nobody here is making it. Whatever. Have a nice day.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 9, 2013 10:06:48 GMT -8
Call it something like Cadillac's ATS, then. Though Cadillac is no Apple. #cartalk
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Post by Deleted on Sept 9, 2013 10:48:49 GMT -8
Correct -- BMW releases a new 3-series, 5-series and 7-series sedan each year, as opposed to manufacturing and offering 2012, 2013 and 2014 5-series sedans at 3 different price points. I think the analogy is pertinent, and 5C is at least the beginning of a shift toward this segmentation strategy. I do think you're right though Gregg that the 5C is happening now for a variety of reasons, including the desire to unify the connector, add support for China Mobile, etc. If it launches at the same $450 (unsubsidized) price point as today's iPhone 4, it would indicate to me that Apple is happy with their current pricing strategy. Thank you jdubuc. As for comparing the segmentation of automobiles to segmentation of iPhones, I think a point is being missed. Using BMW as an example again, the 7 series is hired for a different job (and given different amenities), than is the 5 series and so on. A handset is hired to make telephone calls and access the internet. Period. Differentiators are all 'under the hood', processor speeds, GPU performance, memory, cellular protocol access, battery capacity, screen type, connectors, etc. I don't list OS, because in the case of iPhones, the OS is easily upgraded, giving access to those features supported by the hardware. Android has no such capability, you want the latest OS you buy a new handset. There is no need to design/manufacture a lesser model each year, when the end result is last year's top end model. Unit sales of the iPhone 4 and iPhone 4S bear this out. This is why I believe, and have stated so in several previous posts, that the 5C is most likely a 4S equivalent handset, upgraded to eliminate the 30 pin connector and address China Mobile's bastard network protocol. The 5C, in my opinion, is not a response to competitive pricing threats. It is entirely likely that, even with a reduced price (below US$400) that Apple will not sell as many handsets as Android. That's because of the growth in no name handset manufacturers producing sub $200 models and labeling them "smart phones". Even the 'feared' Samsung (feared by the low cost/unit market share crowd) is suffering lost sales to this group. The question isn't whether Apple should offer a "low cost" iPhone, Apple already does, the question should be where to draw the line. All evidence points to a $400/$450 line, which Apple currently supports. Going below that line, with anything more modern than one to two year old models endangers Apple's flagship model sales. This is not to say that at some point, lower prices OVERALL, won't be justified. But, as we've seen with computer sales, Apple has not lowered prices to grab market share, to the contrary, Mac ASPs are higher today, than they were 2 years ago, even as Mac unit sales continue to grow faster than its Wintel counterparts (that are hemorrhaging price).
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 9, 2013 10:57:26 GMT -8
An A6 iPhone is gonna run absolutely rampant in the $0 subsidized space. For those who don't buy the latest and greatest, that represents a 4x boost in CPU/GPU from iPhone 4. And it'll run iOS 7 quite well.
Apple just can't wait to see consumer feedback for the 5C, I'm quite sure. About the only way they can screw it up is build quality (if Apple can't get a back case swap right, I'm all-in short next year) and pricing (which is always fixable even if Apple prices above $450 unsubsidized).
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Post by Deleted on Sept 9, 2013 11:01:37 GMT -8
Who was that observed the 2:14 PM sell off trigger? Looks to be happening again today (down over $2.00 since 2:14 PM).
My Call Spreads are holding their respective values despite this limited selloff.
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