|
Post by prazan on Sept 9, 2013 11:03:46 GMT -8
Who was that observed the 2:14 PM sell off trigger? Looks to be happening again today (down over $2.00 since 2:14 PM). Red observed a 2:14 bump, not decline, if I remember correctly.
|
|
|
Post by tuffett on Sept 9, 2013 11:11:22 GMT -8
All of the companies you mention have product offerings that target the lower end of luxury/upper end of middle class segment. And guess what? They aren't just older models of their existing cars. They are designed specifically for the target market - exactly as Apple is about to do. It's actually a great analogy for a targeted lower-end iPhone. Remember, lower-end does not mean low-end. Nobody reasonable, myself included is asking Apple to put out a $99 or even $199 unsubsidized phone. So don't argue that point, because nobody here is making it. Whatever. Have a nice day. I'm not trying to pick a fight - I'm merely pointing what I see as errors in your reasoning. If you can't defend them with anything more than a "whatever" that should tell you something. Perhaps you should avoid making statements that aren't factual if you aren't willing to engage in a debate when called out on them. Edit: I see you have indeed responded now. If a handset is hired to make phone calls and access the internet then I'd argue a car is hired to commute to point A to point B. Anything else (processor speed, camera, design (for phones) or horsepower, leather seats, design (for cars)) is just making the ride/experience more enjoyable or to provide an ego boost. The analogies are actually very similar and it doesn't stop luxury car makers from stepping down a level or two and offering a "cheaper" model. By the way I'd be completely fine with a $400 phone.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 9, 2013 11:26:09 GMT -8
I'm not trying to pick a fight - I'm merely pointing what I see as errors in your reasoning. If you can't defend them with anything more than a "whatever" that should tell you something. Perhaps you should avoid making statements that aren't factual if you aren't willing to engage in a debate when called out on them. Really? You could have fooled me. If there is anything I'm not guilty of, its posting positions that are not fact based. "Whatever" is surrendering to the FACT that you don't read, retain what you have read, or ignore that which doesn't agree with you. For Forum peace in the future I will refrain from responding to your posts, doing so is a waste of time, and accomplishes nothing.
|
|
|
Post by tuffett on Sept 9, 2013 11:31:52 GMT -8
Hmmm, I don't see how my post was antagonistic in any way. Anyone who doesn't agree with you, despite the fact that you are consistently wrong and often fail to grasp even simple concepts such as a stock buyback, is accused of not being able to read and retain information. Ok then, you have yourself a nice day too PS I have to laugh out loud at the hypocrisy in your post. It's brilliant.
|
|
|
Post by rob_london on Sept 9, 2013 11:48:51 GMT -8
Jim Dalrymple: "When and if Apple releases a wearable device, Samsung will undoubtedly see where it went wrong and within months release a product bearing a striking resemblance to Apple’s new product." www.loopinsight.com
|
|
|
Post by rickag on Sept 9, 2013 12:12:17 GMT -8
Getting anxious for tomorrow's event.
Will it be like Chistmas for a 4 year old or like a birthday for a sixty one year old. I should add that after 60 birthdays it more about hell I survived another one.
|
|
JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
|
Post by JDSoCal on Sept 9, 2013 12:18:58 GMT -8
There is no need to design/manufacture a lesser model each year, when the end result is last year's top end model. Unit sales of the iPhone 4 and iPhone 4S bear this out. Except in China, where there is no subsidy model. The real reason for the 5C IMO is to lower the ASP of a non-subsidized iPhone where people make a lot less and pay 100% of the price of their phones up front, while retaining some margins. This is why the phone will be plastic instead of metal, and will likely have some other hardware compromises. A nice, profitable, entry-level phone which ensnares a bunch of Chinese people into the ecosystem and its retentive effects, who wouldn't have been iPhone owners otherwise. I still think the 5 survives tomorrow, with a new connector, in cheaper subsidy form.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 9, 2013 12:50:13 GMT -8
I still think the 5 survives tomorrow, with a new connector, in cheaper subsidy form. You mean the 4s with a new lightening connector or the 5 with 16GB of RAM one-size-fits-all for a mid-tier offering between the 5s and 5c?
|
|
JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
|
Post by JDSoCal on Sept 9, 2013 12:51:22 GMT -8
I still think the 5 survives tomorrow, with a new connector, in cheaper subsidy form. You mean the 4s with a new lightening connector or the 5 with 16GB of RAM one-size-fits-all for a mid-tier offering between the 5s and 5c? Yeah, what he said.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 9, 2013 12:52:33 GMT -8
Shiny/chamfered display surround? Would be nice, but it's not a low-cost kinda thing to do, eh? True. I'm not expecting it, but it's the best looking mockup of the 5c out there. Please, no black front!
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Sept 9, 2013 12:52:36 GMT -8
Looks like we're agreed on iPhone 5 platform then. It's technically feasible for Apple to base a new iPhone from the A5-based iPod touch. But I can also see some strong logic in basically replacing the back of the iPhone 5 with colorful polycarbonate and going from there. Case swap - simplicity itself, sorta. You can drive down the cost curve a bit by producing in volume. Say, >50M or even 75M in a year volume. ;D Maybe even >100M... Nice price action by AAPL today. Btw iPad, over 505.
|
|
chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
|
Post by chinacat on Sept 9, 2013 13:07:07 GMT -8
Shiny/chamfered display surround? Would be nice, but it's not a low-cost kinda thing to do, eh? True. I'm not expecting it, but it's the best looking mockup of the 5c out there. Please, no black front! Just curious...I admit a preference for all black iPhones, but why would you not want Apple to offer the option?
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 9, 2013 13:22:47 GMT -8
There is no need to design/manufacture a lesser model each year, when the end result is last year's top end model. Unit sales of the iPhone 4 and iPhone 4S bear this out. Except in China, where there is no subsidy model. Yes there is. Apple worked with the two current iPhone carriers a couple years ago on this. As I recall the carriers were experiencing success with a subsidized iPhone, but it has been a while since I've seen anything on this, so I don't know how it is doing today. Still, a recent survey showed the pricing sweet spot to be about $480. This does not mean that an iPhone has to be priced at that level to be highly successful. Keep in mind that China Mobile's subscriber base exceeds the total population of the US by 2X. Addressing just the top 5% of that base amounts to 35,000,000 iPhones per year. That's the amount Deutsche Bank estimates Apple will sell to China Mobile and DoCoMo combined.It's a good read. tinyurl.com/CM-DoCoMo-iPhone-Market-2014In the article, Chris Whitmore, Deutsche Bank analyst, refers to China Mobile subsidized iPhone purchases. I personally think Whitmore's unit sales estimate is low, but I'll gladly take a 23% increase in iPhone unit sales just be adding two more carriers. I'm modeling 60% YoY iPhone unit growth WITHOUT China Mobile and DoCoMo.
|
|
|
Post by nathanstevens on Sept 9, 2013 13:25:19 GMT -8
Just saw this in my twitter feed. PayPal beacon www.paypal.com/webapps/mpp/beaconPerhaps this leaked a day early. Wouldn't be surprised to hear more about it tomorrow.
|
|
CdnPhoto
Moderator
Posts: 1,502
Member is Online
|
Post by CdnPhoto on Sept 9, 2013 13:29:12 GMT -8
Just saw this in my twitter feed. PayPal beacon www.paypal.com/webapps/mpp/beaconPerhaps this leaked a day early. Wouldn't be surprised to hear more about it tomorrow. Taken down? page doesn't exist any more.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 9, 2013 13:30:53 GMT -8
Just saw this in my twitter feed. PayPal beacon www.paypal.com/webapps/mpp/beaconPerhaps this leaked a day early. Wouldn't be surprised to hear more about it tomorrow. I think it was a deliberate attempt to steal Apple's thunder (what does that tell you about the industry's concern about an Apple solution?). From this snippet, I'm assuming PayPal does not have a product per se.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 9, 2013 13:31:49 GMT -8
Just saw this in my twitter feed. PayPal beacon www.paypal.com/webapps/mpp/beaconPerhaps this leaked a day early. Wouldn't be surprised to hear more about it tomorrow. Taken down? page doesn't exist any more. I must have gotten there just before they took it down. Just looked and I still had that page open www.paypal.com/webapps/mpp/beaconI haven't closed it yet. Before I do, is there a way to copy it?
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Sept 9, 2013 13:34:50 GMT -8
|
|
aapldamus
Member
"Miss Cleo ain't got NOTHING on me!"
Posts: 64
|
Post by aapldamus on Sept 9, 2013 13:37:09 GMT -8
Whatever one's feelings on the Syria situation and how one's "favorite" political party is handling it - "whip counts" in Congress and worldwide sentiment appear to be against intervention at this point. If the US intervenes, it will be air cover only, as I posted yesterday. I'm up substantially on my Sept Week 2 and Sept Spreads (both $485/$490), is anyone else holding through tomorrow? I'm holding 525/550/575 October Butterflies. Up significantly today as well. I plan on holding out for at least $530-540, which I believe is likely, in 30 days or less. Also, If I am reading this right, VXAPL closed today at 30.76, which means 30.76/sqrt(12) = market expects a move of up to 8.88% either up or down within 30 days from today's closing price (68% chance (one standard deviation) price falls within a range of 461.22 - 551.16 within 30 days from today).
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 9, 2013 13:46:26 GMT -8
Also, If I am reading this right, VXAPL closed today at 30.76, which means 30.76/sqrt(12) = market expects a move of up to 8.88% either up or down within 30 days from today's closing price (68% chance (one standard deviation) price falls within a range of 461.22 - 551.16 within 30 days from today). That fits with my observation that AAPL (on average) moves 8.3% from day of Earnings to second Friday after Earnings. If we assume AAPL at $500 on day of Earnings, then a pop of $40+ by second Friday is quite likely. Isn't one standard deviation pretty tight?
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 9, 2013 13:50:32 GMT -8
True. I'm not expecting it, but it's the best looking mockup of the 5c out there. Please, no black front! Just curious...I admit a preference for all black iPhones, but why would you not want Apple to offer the option? Black front w/black case looks great. Black front w/colored shells look terrible IMO.
|
|
JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
|
Post by JDSoCal on Sept 9, 2013 13:51:34 GMT -8
Except in China, where there is no subsidy model. Yes there is. Apple worked with the two current iPhone carriers a couple years ago on this. As I recall the carriers were experiencing success with a subsidized iPhone, but it has been a while since I've seen anything on this, so I don't know how it is doing today. There are also two-headed turtles, but not enough of them to launch a soup company. The vast majority of phone purchasers in Asia do not sign contracts. Why ignore them? Apple obviously isn't, or we wouldn't be seeing a plastic iPhone. Cultures and attitudes can of course evolve, so it isn't either-or, but the buy-it-upfront mentality in China won't change overnight. And China Telecom has reported smaller margins and profits due to the iPhone subsidy effect, likely a/the big sticking point with CM. Anyway, looking fwd to tomorrow, even feeling a possible sick day coming. I'm holding some 500-505 spreads expiring this Friday which I will likely dump tomorrow morning...too many 500 calls looming, plus the dreaded sell-the-news cliche.
|
|
|
Post by appledoc on Sept 9, 2013 13:52:20 GMT -8
Dumped my Jan 15 spreads. I don't like holding over events, so I took my 10% profit.
Keeping my commons though. Will wait for daily MACDh to flip.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Sept 9, 2013 13:54:56 GMT -8
I'm fine with holding through the event, then again I'm not 100% trading AAPL either.
I like where AAPL is. It's in early stages of a channel breakout (at least 30 points, IMHO), and if it triggers it'll be super-bullish. Look out bears if there's a move over 513.
|
|
|
Post by Nevyn on Sept 9, 2013 13:59:36 GMT -8
IIRC, there usually is a big dip near the end of the event when everyone realizes that there is no "one more thing". That is usually a good time to buy.
|
|
|
Post by ericinaustin on Sept 9, 2013 14:00:53 GMT -8
Interesting that Apple HAS kept prying eyes away from the front of the 5C (blurry cam doesn't count). I HOPE it looks like this! That is a very good point and have been thinking the same thing for a month or so. Some of the most gorgeous renders of possible iPhones have an edge to edge screen and I think I saw where apple was working on bonding glass to metal . Probably not ready yet but boy , that would be a game changer.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 9, 2013 14:01:18 GMT -8
Looks like we're agreed on iPhone 5 platform then. It's technically feasible for Apple to base a new iPhone from the A5-based iPod touch. But I can also see some strong logic in basically replacing the back of the iPhone 5 with colorful polycarbonate and going from there. Case swap - simplicity itself, sorta. You can drive down the cost curve a bit by producing in volume. Say, >50M or even 75M in a year volume. ;D Maybe even >100M... Nice price action by AAPL today. Btw iPad, over 505. The logic board leaks that popped us yesterday seems to suggest that the main logic board for all 3 iPhones (5c/5/5s) are basically identical in design and layout. The only difference internally may be the SoC & storage size. If so, that's very good for margins. I wonder if the 5C does in fact use the A6, if it will actually use an under clocked version, thereby saving on power use and enabling either better battery life OR the same battery life with a cheaper battery option.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Sept 9, 2013 14:04:35 GMT -8
Bezels aren't going anywhere. You need _some_ bezel, though I can see Apple trying for a more "monolithic" "glass face" approach at some point in the future. Not for the next 3 years at least though, people seem to like the home button and then there's the scanner element that Apple would have to fit somewhere else.
Can't wait for tomorrow. ;D
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 9, 2013 14:05:52 GMT -8
I'm betting the 5c has the A6 chip in it with a $400-$450 unsubsidized price point. Probably $450, especially if it looks like the mockup posted earlier today.
|
|
|
Post by ericinaustin on Sept 9, 2013 14:11:49 GMT -8
Actually I was referring to the 5s and not the c
|
|